Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2014 2015
Cuprins:
Introducere concepte, relevanta subiectului
Simptome ale instabilitatii. Metode de analiza
metode de analiza
Concepte asociate
(des)Crestere economica
Competitivitate
Criza
(Dez)Echilibru
Hazard
Incertitudine
Perturbatii
Predictabilitate/impredictabilitate
Risc
Variabilitate
Volatilitate
Vulnerabilitate
Legea Moore - 1965, revista Electronics Magazine a publicat o lucrare a lui G. Moore, in care acesta observa ca numarul de circuite integrate se
va dubla in fiecare an, proces ce va fi insotit de o reducere pe masura a preturilor. Cunoscuta sub denumirea de "Legea lui Moore", aceasta
observatie a stat la baza unei dezvoltari extraordinare a tehnologiei in intreaga lume. Moore si-a revizuit observatia in 1975, pentru a adauga
faptul ca numarul tranzistorilor inclusi intr-un circuit integrat se dubleaza la aproximativ doi ani. Se poate spune ca "Legea lui Moore" a
constituit baza pe care au fost create microprocesoare de catre o industrie a semiconductorilor in plin avant. Aceste "creiere ale computerelor",
alaturi de alte tipuri de circuite integrate, au facut posibila aparitia si dezvoltarea PC-ului, a Internetului, a telefoanelor mobile si a jocurilor
video. Impact economic. In afara acestei observatii cu privire la cresterea complexitatii circuitelor integrate, "Legea lui Moore" sugereaza si o
scadere a costurilor. Pe masura ce componentele pe baza de siliciu castiga in performanta, pretul lor de productie scade. Microprocesoarele din
ziua de azi conduc totul, de la jucarii la schimbarea luminilor semaforului. O carte postala muzicala in valoare de doar cativa dolari contine un
microprocesor mai puternic decat cele mai rapide calculatoare mainframe produse cu cateva zeci de ani in urma.
Metode de analiz
Analiza SWOT (Strenght, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat)
Analiza SPIN (Situation, Problem, Implication, Need Pay
Off)
Analiza STEEP (Social, Technological, Economical,
Environmental and Political)
Analiza de impact CIA (Cross-impact analysis), TIA
(Trend impact analysis)
Metode de tip analiz a eficienei/eficacitii (analiza cost-
(http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm)
Obiective, indicatori, tinte pentru SM (state
membre)
Starea curenta si progres Cazul Romania
(
http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/europe-2020in-your-country/romania/country-specific-re
commendations/index_en.htm
)
AIMI 2014 - 2015
10
populaiei. Criza economic imprim tuturor acestor probleme un caracter mult mai presant, fapt ce impune un rspuns
mai hotrt i mai coerent la nivel politic. Restabilirea stabilitii macroeconomice i redirijarea finanelor publice
ctre o cale durabil sunt eseniale pentru creterea economic i ocuparea forei de munc.
Pornind de la acest tablou socio-economic, Uniunea Euroepeana a trebuit s-i defineasc direcia n care i propune s
evolueze pn n anul 2020, avnd ca punct de plecare - ianuarie 2011, dat la care Agenda Lisabona 2000, va fi
deja expirat.
3 mari formule de cretere economic, n decada urmatoare:
1. cretere economic inteligent (consolidarea cunoaterii, inovaie, educaie, societate digital);
2. cretere economic durabil (creterea eficienei n producie i a competitivitii);
3. cretere economic inclusiv (participare sporita pe pieele muncii, dobndirea de noi abiliti profesionale i
diminuarea srciei).
Noul plan strategic european i redefineste ambiia de a face din economia Europei cea mai performant din lume i
propune, n schimb, un model economico-social care s rspund provocrilor actuale, cum sunt globalizarea accelerat,
mbtrnirea populaiei i schimbrile climatice.
Comisia European a propus cinci obiective principale, care ar trebui ndeplinite pn n 2020:
75% din populaia cu vrsta cuprins ntre 20 i 64 de ani ar trebui s aib un loc de munc;
3% din PIB-ul UE ar trebui investit n cercetare-dezvoltare;
ndeplinirea obiectivului 20/20/20 n materie de clim i energie;
rata abandonului colar timpuriu ar trebui redus sub nivelul de 10% i cel puin 40% din generaia tnr ar trebui s
aib studii superiore;
numrul persoanelor ameninate de srcie ar trebui redus cu 20 de milioane.
AIMI 2014 - 2015
11
Pentru cele cinci obiective propuse de CE in noua strategie, optiunile Romaniei pot fi schitate astfel:
Rata de ocupare a populatiei cu varsta intre 20 si 64 de ani minimum 75 %. In stabilirea obiectivelor
complementare, tinerii trebuie vizati atat din perspectiva participarii lor la educatie si formare, cat si din perspectiva
evitarii riscului de excluziune sociala.
Nivelul investitiilor in cercetare si dezvoltare 3% din PIB-ul UE. Mentinerea pentru 2020 a obiectivului de
3% ar putea fi realista pentru unele SM, dar pentru Romania va reprezenta o serioasa provocare, chiar presiune, cu
atat mai mult cu cat obiectivele fixate in contextul strategiei Europa 2020 sunt interconectate. In cazul Romaniei, la
constrangerile de natura bugetara si financiara se adauga dificultatile generate de o slaba capacitate de absorbtie a
fondurilor in domeniul cercetarii si dezvoltarii (atat cele de la bugetul de stat, conform Planului national de cercetare
dezvoltare si inovare, cat si din sursele comunitare).
Atingerea obiectivului 20/20/20 (sau 30/20/20, in cazul respectarii anumitor conditii) referitor la schimbarile
climatice si energie. Romania nu intrevede dificultati in atingerea obiectivului de 20% aferent surselor regenerabile
de energie (RES) si considera ca potentialul national, sistemul de promovare al RES si aplicarea prevederilor
Directivei 2009/28/CE vor avea contributii importante in acest sens. In ceea ce priveste eficienta energetica,
obiectivul de 20% este indicativ si este importanta analizarea oportunitatii stabilirii de obiective obligatorii. Romania
are in vedere necesitatea mentinerii perspective de crestere a consumului de energie pentru relansarea economica
scontata. Referitor la emisiile de gaze cu efect de sera, Romania considera fundamentala respectarea deciziei
Consiliului European din decembrie 2009 privind efectuarea de catre COM a evaluarii compatibilitatii obiectivelor
asumate de tarile terte, pentru a asigura un level playing field global pentru standardele de mediu. Numai in baza
acestei evaluari poate fi avuta in vedere posibilitatea modificarii angajamentului UE de reducere a emisiilor de gaze
cu efect de sera cu 30 % pana in 2020.
Rata abandonului scolar timpuriu situatia nationala actual nu este de natura sa sustina un obiectiv national
prea ambitios dar, prin intensificarea eforturilor de coordonare a politicilor educationale cu cele sociale, este posibila
scaderea semnificativa a acestui indicator.
Reducerea cu 20 de milioane a cetatenilor europeni amenintati de saracie. Realizarea acestui obiectiv este
dificila chiar la nivelul UE, avand in vedere conditiile economice specific SM.
Asadar, Romania impartaseste abordarea COM cu privire la modul in care se pot asigura perspective mai bune pentru
economia UE si sustine asigurarea convergentei eforturilor comunitare si ale SM in efortul comun de a-si depasi
actual criza si de a define un cadru de consolidare a competitivitatii europene pentru urmatorul deceniu.
AIMI 2014 - 2015
12
13
EU 27
Europe 2020 a strategy for jobs and
smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth, is based on five EU
headline targets which are
currently measured by eight
headline indicators.
Sursa:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/port
al/page/portal/europe_2020_indicat
ors/headline_indicators
14
Romania
2014
15
Exemplificare:
Disparitati regionale baza in anul 2008 (2)
Indici de disparitate PIB/locuitor - calculai conform metodologiei Institutului
Naional de Statistic, prin raportarea nivelului regional la nivelul naional.
Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2016, Comisia Nationala
de Prognoza
16
luat ca baz - outlier), aflat pe locul doi din punct de vedere al dezvoltrii economice pe
ntreaga perioad.
Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2016, Comisia Nationala de Prognoza
17
117
120
111
100
111
92
84
77
80
68
6056
57
59
63
53
40
20
18
20
21
22
2001
2002
Nord-Ves
2003t
S ud-Muntenia
24
23
25
26
29
30
29
2008
2009
2010
0
2000
Centru
2004
2005
Bucures ti-Ilfov
Nord-Es
t
2006
S ud-Ves tOltenia
Sud-Es t
2007
Ves t
18
19
Rapoartele de competitivitate
Evaluarea economiei bazate pe cunoastere in viziunea Bancii Mondiale Knowledge Assessment methodology - KAM:
www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopment
www.worldbank.org/kam
The Knowledge Economy, the KAM Methodology and World Bank Operations,
Derek H. C. Chen, Carl J. Dahlman, The World Bank, Washington DC 20433, October
19, 2005
Source: Measuring knowledge in the worlds economies,
Knowledge Assessment Methodology and Knowledge Economy Index
20
21
22
Definitie - concepte
Competitivitatea
se definete ca acel set de instituii, politici i factori care determin nivelul prezent
de productivitate al unei tri.
Este capacitatea unei firme, companii regiuni sau economii nationale de a isi pastra
sau ameliora pozitia in raport cu concurenta altor entitati comparabile; este cel mai
des vazuta din perspectiva unei natiuni si este asociata concurentei internationale
=> capacitatea unei natiuni de a produce bunuri si servicii care fac fata testului
concurentei pe pietele internationale si de a spori simultan si in mod durabil nivelul
de trai al populatiei
determin att nivelul de bunstare al unei economii la un moment dat, ct i
potenialul de cretere a acesteia in viitor.
Literatura i practica economic au evideniat faptul c dezvoltarea unei economii
bazate pe cunoatere reprezint unul dintre factorii cheie ai creterii competitivitii
unei economii.
naturale i fora de munc (Adam Smith, 1776 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of Wealth of
Nations);
D. Ricardo (1817) - cu formularea legii avantajului comparativ Principles of Political Economy
and Taxation
Economitii marxiti au subliniat impactul mediului sociopolitic asupra dezvoltrii economice (K.
Marx 1867 Capital: a Critique of Political Economy)
2/3/15
23
24
2/3/15
25
WEF 2013-2014
26
27
28
Romania
29
30
Competitivitate - productivitate
Cuantificarea obiectivului POS de competitivitate se poate realiza n termeni de
cretere a productivittii muncii, calculat ca evoluie a PIB pe persoan
ocupat.
Cresterea productivitatii muncii pe persoana ocupata poate fi aproximata si
ca:
% productivitatea muncii= %GDP real - %populatie ocupata
unde :
% reprezinta cresterea procentuala
Creterea productivitii muncii pe persoan ocupat poate fi descompus
teoretic in contribuia a doi factori: contribuia creterii capitalului pe persoan
ocupat i cea a modificrii rezidualului Solow, numit i productivitatea total a
factorilor. Productivitatea total a factorilor suprinde contribuia altor factori
dect capitalul i fora de munc la creterea PIB-ului pe persoan ocupat.
Creterea PIB pe persoan ocupat este un indicator larg folosit n practica
internaional.
31
135.5
127.3
116
114.5
113.4
111.2
111
108.8
108.8
108.8
108.8
108.6
107.1
107
100
99.9
99.4
92.7
91.8
91.7
82.6
81.1
80.1
76.7
74.6
74.3
71.9
70.6
70
66.9
51.7
43.4
40
20
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
32
60
53.4
50
40
48.8
42.8
37.5 37.3
32.2 32.2 32.1 32.1
30
20
17.1
13.2 13.1
10
8.4
5.6 4.9
33
20
15
10
5 3
3.2 3.8
4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Romania
EU (27 countries)
EU (28 countries)
Labour productivity per hour w orked, Percentage change over previous period
20
16
15
10
5
0
9.8
6.8
4.5
3
2
1.4 2.2 1.6
1.4
1
1995
-5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
7.3
2.4
-0.5
2007
-0.5
2008-1.5
2009
4
1.4
1.3
2010
0.6
0.3
-0.3
2011
2012
2013
-4.2
-5.6
-10
Romania
EU (27 countries)
EU (28 countries)
34
35
efficiency; also implies a strategic choice in identifying those domains where an activity represents a
unique added value. The theory of
comparative advantage (David Ricardo, 1819) analyses such
dilemmas. Competitiveness means making choices about where the potential added value in international
markets is bigger than that of competitors.
entails the mobilization of a variety of resources to implement such choices. These resources are drawn
from government, infrastructure, technology,
finance, education, etc. Countries compete internationally to have access to and to manage these
resources.
The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook can be described as a mapping process that helps countries
2/3/15
37
2. Value systems imply different behavioral models Three different models of society:
1) The South European Model is characterized by little
infrastructure, business regulations, and social protection, a
parallel economy, and low labor costs. It favors inventiveness.
2) The North European Model - a strong emphasis on stability,
social consensus and regulations. It favors a long-term
perspective.
3) The Anglo-Saxon Model - deregulation, privatization, labor
flexibility and a higher acceptance of risk. It fosters
entrepreneurship.
Over the past ten years, a shift has occurred from the North European model
to the Anglo-Saxon one. However, striking a balance between a hypercompetitive global business environment, close to the Anglo-Saxon model,
and a more socially responsible local environment, close to the North
European model, is still a challenge.
38
The Impact of
Technology
During the past two decades, the technological
revolution - computers, telecommunications and
Internet - have had a profound impact on the
competitiveness
of
nations.
Today,
infrastructure cannot only be considered in the
traditional terms of roads, trains, harbor facilities
and even airports. Technological infrastructure is
becoming
a
key
asset
for
the
future
competitiveness of a nation.
Technology also impacts education. The new
technological requirements of enterprises have
forced countries to give a priority to technology.
Attracting research centers, and developing
cooperation between local universities and
enterprises, is becoming just as important for the
competitiveness of a country as attracting FDI.
The Internet allows companies to develop ecommerce, e-procurements, auctions, and emarketplaces across borders. This pushes
countries to develop an advanced technological
infrastructure.
2/3/15
39
40
41
42
2/3/15
43
44
45
46
47
The Competitiveness Roadmap is an attempt to describe and assess the main issues that will affect the
world competitiveness landscape over the next four decades. Issues are shown along two axes degree of impact and timescale - to provide a clear mental map of the environment in which nations
and companies will operate.
Exemple:
1. Budget deficits remain high Despite austerity plans, budget deficits remain high: Country
estimates for 2013 range from -9% of the GDP in Japan, to -5.4% in the US and -2.8% in the Euro area.
Unpopular spending cuts will prevail and not only in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy slowing down
economic recovery everywhere.
2. The economy is desynchronized Globalization is still there but the world economy is increasingly
fragmented: some nations continue to struggle with recession e.g. Greece, Portugal others confront
robust growth such as China. Some countries suffer deflation Japan and Switzerland others are
threatened by inflation, such as India, Russia and Turkey.
3. Unemployment becomes massive 25 million people lose their jobs in the OECD region and the
average jobless rate hits 7.7% in the US and 11.9% in Europe. Youth unemployment reaches record
highs, above 23% in Europe and a staggering 52% in Spain.
4. Interest rates remain low Central Banks continue to flood the market with cheap money. Some
institutions, such as the U.S. Fed, include employment levels as a target. Stock exchanges become
more attractive for higher returns.
5. Inflation is back but not everywhere The economic recovery is expected to trigger a rise in
commodity prices and demand. Excess liquidities inherited from the recession could flood the markets.
Some governments even welcome a bit of inflation to boost private consumption and reduce the
nominal value of the debt.
6. High volatility of currencies The dollar remains weak and is continually tested by financial
markets. The Euro stabilizes around 1.35 to the dollar as emerging markets cautiously buy Euro bonds
to diversify their holdings. The Chinese Yuan appreciates gradually as the government wants to
develop domestic demand.
AIMI 2014 - 2015
48
7. Global debt explodes The average G20 government debt increases from 78% of GDP to 100% and
above. The US national debt now surpasses $21 trillion. Sub-sovereign debt at regional and city level
becomes critical in the US but also in Spain, and even Germany.
8. Economic nationalism on the rise Trade protectionism increases as it is linked to national stimulus
plans (e.g. buy national clauses). New protectionist measures appear that are linked to financial
regulations, environmental standards, corporate governance, etc.
15. Consumers react differently Industrialized nations are characterized by a replacement economy
where purchases replace existing products while emerging nations are in a first-buy economy stage
where purchases introduce new products into households. In other words, an industrialized economy is
defined by I want it versus one defined by I need it. Slower growth can be expected as saturation
threatens replacement economies.
16. Food commodities prices higher Food commodities have seen their prices increase by over 40%
since the end of the recession. Despite a temporary slowdown due to a weaker than expected recovery,
prices will remain high. An emerging middle class is changing its eating habits and greater demand will
push prices up again. For example, China is moving away from a rice-only diet. In a decade it has
increased its milk consumption seven-fold, poultry by 60%, beef by 30% and wheat by 25%.
17. State capitalism is fashionable Governments are moving from being stakeholders to being
shareholders of their economies. State interventions increase and national leaders consider it a priority
to defend and develop national champions. As a consequence, government spending now represents
on average 50% of the GDP in advanced economies. 80% of the stock market capitalization in
Shanghai is done by state-backed companies.
24. More managers needed everywhere - More managers are required in emerging powers. India,
China, Russia, Brazil and the Gulf region increasingly focus on management and the creation of
business schools, beyond science and engineering education. Strategy, finance and marketing skills
are now priorities for ensuring the continuous expansion of local enterprises in a global environment.
25. A new environmental strategy for companies Climate change and energy security is clearly a
priority for public opinion. Governments and companies enhance their visibility on environmental
issues and integrate an environmental dimension into their strategy. Companies that fail to do so will
not attract the best talents in the younger generation, who are very sensitive to this issue.
AIMI 2014 - 2015
49
51
52
53
Tema de discutie
KAM Banca Mondiala
54
55
That higher KEI values are associated with higher rates of future economic growth (with other factors held constant) suggests that
larger stocks of knowledge stock do indeed cause higher levels of economic growth and development.
A one-unit improvement in the KEI - equivalent to an increase in ranking of one decile or 13 positions- leads to an increase of 0.49
percentage points in economic growth, after accounting for initial conditions.
AIMI 2014 - 2015
56
1995
87.6
9.3
79
9.38
0.62
6.92
-0.23
2.94
Legislatie, 2009
0.1
5.96
0.01
5.56
24.76
6.4
0.48
3.56
58.12
6.41
29.89
0.45
5.62
0.1
5.1
10.37
7.72
9.61
8.35
93.5
6.55
77.9
6.25
67.07
8.37
18.29
5.31
1,430,00
6.62
130
5.72
190
6.1
10
5.32
360
5.86
7.45
57
9.3 10
6.92
Legislatie, 2009
5.86
5
6.1
5.96
6.62
6.4
8.37
5.62
6.55
7.72
2012
1995
58
1995
Albania
4.53
4.33
Uzbekistan
3.14
4.78
Australia
8.88
9.27
Barbados
7.18
6.87
Benin
1.88
2.83
6.8
6.81
China
4.37
3.99
El Salvador
4.17
4.26
Estonia
8.4
7.94
France
8.21
8.67
Kuwait
5.33
5.71
Lesotho
1.95
3.11
United States
8.77
9.53
Mongolia
4.42
4.08
Myanmar
0.96
2.23
Romania
6.82
5.91
Russian Federation
5.78
5.67
Slovak Republic
7.64
7.22
Sweden
9.43
9.45
Bulgaria
59
KEI in dinamica
60
61
Tema de discutie
Banca Mondiala 3 I
62
63
64