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AFACERI IN MEDIU INSTABIL

2014 2015

Prof. dr. Daniela Borisov


Daniela.borisov@yahoo.com

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Cuprins:
Introducere concepte, relevanta subiectului
Simptome ale instabilitatii. Metode de analiza

pentru mediul intern/extern pentru o entitate


economica
Evaluari ale competitivitatii macro.
Romania in strategia Europa 2020
Teme de discutie:
Banca Mondiala 3I

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Instabilitate concepte asociate, simptome si

metode de analiza
Concepte asociate
(des)Crestere economica
Competitivitate
Criza
(Dez)Echilibru
Hazard
Incertitudine
Perturbatii
Predictabilitate/impredictabilitate
Risc
Variabilitate
Volatilitate
Vulnerabilitate

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Simptome ale instabilitii n mediul


economico-social (1)
viteze mai mari de desfurare a unor fenomene:
Cresterea emisiilor de CO2,
Epuizarea la nivel global a resursei de APA (de o anumita calitate)
Intensificarea somajului noi segmente ale populatiei afectate major
Reducerea ciclurilor de viata ale produselor /tehnologiilor /industriilor
Ritmuri mai rapide de consum a unor resurse naturale sau de inrautarire a unor conditii de mediu

schimbri/ruperi/inversri de ritm pentru indicatori macroeconomici:

indicatori ce exprima cresterea economica rata de crestere anuala a PIB


schimbri de tendin (de exemplu, legi de cretere exponenial rata de penetrare
telefoniei mobile, subtierea calsei de mijloc)

dificultatea de a raspunde unor cerinte (de ex., generate ridicarea unor

standarde de calitate sau ale unei suprastructuri)

Romania - rate mici de absorbtie a fondurilor europene


Noi tipuri de riscuri economice, sociale, tehnologice . riscuri cibernetice

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Simptome ale instabilitii n


mediul economico - social (2)
-

instabilitate in dinamic ptr. diversi indicatori, volatilitate, oscilatii,


amplitudini mai mari ntre limitele maxime i minime ale unui indicator
Exemplu: oscilatiile cursului de schimb valutar ptr. Romania. Stabilitatea cursului de schimb este unul dintre criteriile de la
Maastricht, de a caror indeplinire depinde adoptarea monedei europene de catre oricare stat membru al UE. Romania are ca
obiectiv intrarea in zona euro in 2014. Potrivit criteriilor de la Maastricht, moneda nationala poate fluctua intr-o banda de
variatie de plus/minus 15%, variatie care reprezinta aprecierea sau deprecierea procentuala maxima fata de media ultimilor
doi ani.
Incertitudinea genereaz volatilitate de ex., evoluia indicelui BET-FI . Piaa de capital are, prin definiie, un caracter
mai volatil dect alte piee (cea de mrfuri)

dispersii mari fa de medie


europeana

ex. exprimarea decalajelor, convergenta slaba fata de media

Incertitudine in crestere dificultatea de a face previziuni pe termen lung sau


impredictabilitate / complexitate crescut a formelor de desfurare a unor procese - de
exemplu:
manifestarea unor ntrzieri,
apariia unor noi modele sociale/de afaceri (in mediu virtual): publicitate online, forumuri ale clientilor, grupuri de lobby,
retele sociale, triburi digitale
evidenierea unor legturi netradiionale de tip feed-back,
formarea de parteneriate inedite etc.;
AIMI 2014 - 2015

Simptome ale instabilitii n


mediul economico-social (3)
ieirea din tipare tradiionale
Ex: legea Pareto sau legea 20/80 - "80% din efecte sunt generate de 20% din cauze. Legea a fost enuntata de Vilfredo Frederico Pareto (1848-1923) in
legatura cu posesia unor terenuri in proportie de 80% de catre 20% din cei mai bogati oameni ai timpului; este folosita ca principiu al managementului
20% din personal realizeaza 80% din rezultate, 20% din produsele vandute aduc 80% din cifra de afaceri, etc.
Mai ramane valabila Legea Pareto in economia digitala?
Ex: Orase falimentate
Ex: superdatele, braindrain
Ex: noi forme de munca

ndeprtarea fa de tendine (divergena fa de o zon/regiune)

Ex: digital divide, convergenta in UE


aparitia unor noi legi legea Moore, legea randamentelor in crestere pentru resursa
informationala

Legea Moore - 1965, revista Electronics Magazine a publicat o lucrare a lui G. Moore, in care acesta observa ca numarul de circuite integrate se
va dubla in fiecare an, proces ce va fi insotit de o reducere pe masura a preturilor. Cunoscuta sub denumirea de "Legea lui Moore", aceasta
observatie a stat la baza unei dezvoltari extraordinare a tehnologiei in intreaga lume. Moore si-a revizuit observatia in 1975, pentru a adauga
faptul ca numarul tranzistorilor inclusi intr-un circuit integrat se dubleaza la aproximativ doi ani. Se poate spune ca "Legea lui Moore" a
constituit baza pe care au fost create microprocesoare de catre o industrie a semiconductorilor in plin avant. Aceste "creiere ale computerelor",
alaturi de alte tipuri de circuite integrate, au facut posibila aparitia si dezvoltarea PC-ului, a Internetului, a telefoanelor mobile si a jocurilor
video. Impact economic. In afara acestei observatii cu privire la cresterea complexitatii circuitelor integrate, "Legea lui Moore" sugereaza si o
scadere a costurilor. Pe masura ce componentele pe baza de siliciu castiga in performanta, pretul lor de productie scade. Microprocesoarele din
ziua de azi conduc totul, de la jucarii la schimbarea luminilor semaforului. O carte postala muzicala in valoare de doar cativa dolari contine un
microprocesor mai puternic decat cele mai rapide calculatoare mainframe produse cu cateva zeci de ani in urma.

agravarea unor decalaje in timp/dispariti (regionale, de ex.) extremizarea saraciei severe,


excluziune sociala

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Simptome ale instabilitii n mediul


economico-social (4)
transformarea unor probleme economice n fenomene sociale:

somaj saracie crestere economica


conditionarea unor surse de instabilitate din anumite zone
culturale sau sociale n efecte economice negative conflicte
religioase/etnice, stramutari masive ale unor populatii, migratii
ale lucratorilor
Tema de discutie:
Cercuri virtuoase in cresterea economica/dezvoltarea umana
Cercuri vicioase .
AIMI 2014 - 2015

Metode de analiz
Analiza SWOT (Strenght, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat)
Analiza SPIN (Situation, Problem, Implication, Need Pay

Off)
Analiza STEEP (Social, Technological, Economical,
Environmental and Political)
Analiza de impact CIA (Cross-impact analysis), TIA
(Trend impact analysis)
Metode de tip analiz a eficienei/eficacitii (analiza cost-

beneficiu, analiza risc-beneficiu, analiza cost-utilitate etc.)

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Raportul de avertisment privind potenialul de


criz - early warning
Conceptul a fost dezvoltat pentru situaiile de prevenire a conflictelor i de violene pe
scar larg.
Recent, experiena din sud-estul Europei, mai ales din perspectiva UNDP, a impus
lrgirea acestui concept. Crizele din aceast parte a lumii au fost provocate de
proasta conducere a unor economii instabile, de incapacitatea statului de a furniza
bunuri publice de baz, cum ar fi meninerea ordinii i impunerea legii, de
incapacitatea actorilor politici de a mpri echitabil resursele ntre diversele grupuri
etnice. Din moment ce aceste state nu au capacitatea de a analiza politicile, aceste
rapoarte ar trebui s avertizeze asupra erorilor de politici publice i s ofere soluii
de rezolvare a tensiunilor prin monitorizarea evoluiilor politice, sociale i
economice, n special a celor care risc s degenereze n situaii de criz.
Extinderea conceptului este justificat i de o alt realitate sud-est european: statele de
aici sunt fie prea noi, fie prea slabe, astfel nct n aproape toate aceste ri are loc
un proces de redefinire a rolului statului.

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Strategia Europa 2020

(http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm)
Obiective, indicatori, tinte pentru SM (state

membre)
Starea curenta si progres Cazul Romania
(
http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/europe-2020in-your-country/romania/country-specific-re
commendations/index_en.htm
)
AIMI 2014 - 2015

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Strategia Europa 2020


In prezent, Europa se confrunt cu provocri structurale majore - globalizarea, schimbrile climatice i mbtrnirea

populaiei. Criza economic imprim tuturor acestor probleme un caracter mult mai presant, fapt ce impune un rspuns
mai hotrt i mai coerent la nivel politic. Restabilirea stabilitii macroeconomice i redirijarea finanelor publice
ctre o cale durabil sunt eseniale pentru creterea economic i ocuparea forei de munc.
Pornind de la acest tablou socio-economic, Uniunea Euroepeana a trebuit s-i defineasc direcia n care i propune s
evolueze pn n anul 2020, avnd ca punct de plecare - ianuarie 2011, dat la care Agenda Lisabona 2000, va fi
deja expirat.
3 mari formule de cretere economic, n decada urmatoare:
1. cretere economic inteligent (consolidarea cunoaterii, inovaie, educaie, societate digital);
2. cretere economic durabil (creterea eficienei n producie i a competitivitii);
3. cretere economic inclusiv (participare sporita pe pieele muncii, dobndirea de noi abiliti profesionale i
diminuarea srciei).
Noul plan strategic european i redefineste ambiia de a face din economia Europei cea mai performant din lume i
propune, n schimb, un model economico-social care s rspund provocrilor actuale, cum sunt globalizarea accelerat,
mbtrnirea populaiei i schimbrile climatice.
Comisia European a propus cinci obiective principale, care ar trebui ndeplinite pn n 2020:
75% din populaia cu vrsta cuprins ntre 20 i 64 de ani ar trebui s aib un loc de munc;
3% din PIB-ul UE ar trebui investit n cercetare-dezvoltare;
ndeplinirea obiectivului 20/20/20 n materie de clim i energie;
rata abandonului colar timpuriu ar trebui redus sub nivelul de 10% i cel puin 40% din generaia tnr ar trebui s
aib studii superiore;
numrul persoanelor ameninate de srcie ar trebui redus cu 20 de milioane.
AIMI 2014 - 2015

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Pentru cele cinci obiective propuse de CE in noua strategie, optiunile Romaniei pot fi schitate astfel:
Rata de ocupare a populatiei cu varsta intre 20 si 64 de ani minimum 75 %. In stabilirea obiectivelor
complementare, tinerii trebuie vizati atat din perspectiva participarii lor la educatie si formare, cat si din perspectiva
evitarii riscului de excluziune sociala.
Nivelul investitiilor in cercetare si dezvoltare 3% din PIB-ul UE. Mentinerea pentru 2020 a obiectivului de
3% ar putea fi realista pentru unele SM, dar pentru Romania va reprezenta o serioasa provocare, chiar presiune, cu
atat mai mult cu cat obiectivele fixate in contextul strategiei Europa 2020 sunt interconectate. In cazul Romaniei, la
constrangerile de natura bugetara si financiara se adauga dificultatile generate de o slaba capacitate de absorbtie a
fondurilor in domeniul cercetarii si dezvoltarii (atat cele de la bugetul de stat, conform Planului national de cercetare
dezvoltare si inovare, cat si din sursele comunitare).
Atingerea obiectivului 20/20/20 (sau 30/20/20, in cazul respectarii anumitor conditii) referitor la schimbarile
climatice si energie. Romania nu intrevede dificultati in atingerea obiectivului de 20% aferent surselor regenerabile
de energie (RES) si considera ca potentialul national, sistemul de promovare al RES si aplicarea prevederilor
Directivei 2009/28/CE vor avea contributii importante in acest sens. In ceea ce priveste eficienta energetica,
obiectivul de 20% este indicativ si este importanta analizarea oportunitatii stabilirii de obiective obligatorii. Romania
are in vedere necesitatea mentinerii perspective de crestere a consumului de energie pentru relansarea economica
scontata. Referitor la emisiile de gaze cu efect de sera, Romania considera fundamentala respectarea deciziei
Consiliului European din decembrie 2009 privind efectuarea de catre COM a evaluarii compatibilitatii obiectivelor
asumate de tarile terte, pentru a asigura un level playing field global pentru standardele de mediu. Numai in baza
acestei evaluari poate fi avuta in vedere posibilitatea modificarii angajamentului UE de reducere a emisiilor de gaze
cu efect de sera cu 30 % pana in 2020.
Rata abandonului scolar timpuriu situatia nationala actual nu este de natura sa sustina un obiectiv national
prea ambitios dar, prin intensificarea eforturilor de coordonare a politicilor educationale cu cele sociale, este posibila
scaderea semnificativa a acestui indicator.
Reducerea cu 20 de milioane a cetatenilor europeni amenintati de saracie. Realizarea acestui obiectiv este
dificila chiar la nivelul UE, avand in vedere conditiile economice specific SM.
Asadar, Romania impartaseste abordarea COM cu privire la modul in care se pot asigura perspective mai bune pentru
economia UE si sustine asigurarea convergentei eforturilor comunitare si ale SM in efortul comun de a-si depasi
actual criza si de a define un cadru de consolidare a competitivitatii europene pentru urmatorul deceniu.
AIMI 2014 - 2015

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Europa 2020 accent pe cunoastere


Cresterea economica bazata pe cunoastere:

noua strategie trebuie sa ofere conditii cadru


adecvate pentru inovare si cercetare, prin oferirea de stimulente si punerea in comun a resurselor
publice si private.
Obiectivele pentru anul 2020 vor putea fi atinse numai intr-un Spatiu European al Cercetarii eficient,
eficace si cu finantare adecvata. Politicile de educatie vor trebui reformate astfel incat randamentul
lor sa creasca si sa conduca la combaterea excluziunii sociale si a saraciei.

Educatia si cercetarea, inovarea si creativitatea sunt principalele prioritati


pentru realizarea societatii europene bazata pe cunoastere. Trebuie intreprinse
masuri pentru crearea unei veritabile piete unice online pentru ca beneficiile economiei digitale sa
fie folosite la potentialul lor maxim.
Dezvoltarea competentelor cetatenilor in cadrul unor societati care favorizeaza incluziunea:
Beneficiile economiei bazate pe cunoastere depind de contributia directa a fortei de munca,
competentele acesteia constituind un element central pentru cresterea economica europeana.
Flexicuritatea va ocupa un loc central in urmatorul deceniu, fiind instrumentul care poate raspunde
adecvat provocarilor impuse de noi locuri de munca care necesita competente noi. Mobilitatea fortei
de munca trebuie sa contribuie la o mai buna corelare a cererii si ofertei pe piata muncii, dar si la
asigurarea necesarului de noi competente.

Intarirea culturii antreprenoriale, cu accent pe o atitudine pozitiva in


asumarea riscurilor si a capacitatii de inovare reprezinta un instrument care
contribuie la asigurarea competitivitatii.
AIMI 2014 - 2015

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EU 27
Europe 2020 a strategy for jobs and
smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth, is based on five EU
headline targets which are
currently measured by eight
headline indicators.
Sursa:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/port
al/page/portal/europe_2020_indicat
ors/headline_indicators

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Romania
2014

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Exemplificare:
Disparitati regionale baza in anul 2008 (2)
Indici de disparitate PIB/locuitor - calculai conform metodologiei Institutului
Naional de Statistic, prin raportarea nivelului regional la nivelul naional.
Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2016, Comisia Nationala
de Prognoza

AIMI 2014 - 2015

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Exemplificare: Disparitati regionale (2)


Decalaje regionale - Fiecare regiune fa de regiunea Vest (regiunea Bucureti Ilfov nu a fost

luat ca baz - outlier), aflat pe locul doi din punct de vedere al dezvoltrii economice pe
ntreaga perioad.
Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2016, Comisia Nationala de Prognoza

AIMI 2014 - 2015

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EUROSTAT - Regional gross domestic product


(PPS per inhabitant), by NUTS 2 regions
ROMANIA
GDP (gross domestic product) is an indicator of the output of a country or a region. It reflects the total value of all goods and services produced less the value of
goods and services used for intermediate consumption in their production. Expressing GDP in PPS (purchasing power standards) eliminates differences in price levels
between countries. Calculations on a per inhabitant basis allow for the comparison of economies and regions significantly different in absolute size. GDP per
inhabitant in PPS is the key variable for determining the eligibility of NUTS 2 regions in the framework of the European Union's structural policy. Every
region in the EU is covered by cohesion policy: however, most structural funds are directed to NUTS level 2 regions whose GDP per inhabitant is less than 75 % of
the EU27 average (on the basis of a three-year average). Source: Eurostat (tgs00006)

117

120

111

100

111

92
84
77

80

68
6056

57

59

63
53

40

20

18

20

21

22

2001

2002

Nord-Ves
2003t
S ud-Muntenia

24

23

25

26

29

30

29

2008

2009

2010

0
2000

Centru
2004
2005
Bucures ti-Ilfov

Nord-Es
t
2006
S ud-Ves tOltenia

Sud-Es t
2007
Ves t

18

Proportion of resident population in economically stronger and weaker


regions
Regions whose GDP per inhabitant, in PPS, moved upwards or downwards over the 75%
threshold of the average EU-27. by NUTS 2 regions, average 2005-07 compared with
average 1998-2000

AIMI 2014 - 2015

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii


Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015. Modele teoretice preluate in
metodologiile de evaluare Diamantul Porter, Global Entrepreneurship
Monitor (GEM)
IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook. The 2013-2050 Roadmap

Rapoartele de competitivitate
Evaluarea economiei bazate pe cunoastere in viziunea Bancii Mondiale Knowledge Assessment methodology - KAM:
www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopment
www.worldbank.org/kam
The Knowledge Economy, the KAM Methodology and World Bank Operations,
Derek H. C. Chen, Carl J. Dahlman, The World Bank, Washington DC 20433, October
19, 2005
Source: Measuring knowledge in the worlds economies,
Knowledge Assessment Methodology and Knowledge Economy Index

AIMI 2014 - 2015

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Raportul asupra competitivitatii in lume in


viziunea Forumului Economic Mondial (WEF World Economic Forum)

WEF Global Competitiveness Report


editia 2014-2015

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii Forumul Economic Mondial (WEF)


Sursa: The Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015, World Economic Forum; autori: Michael E. Porter,
Harvard University; Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum
Competitiveness is defined as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity
of a country;
Productivity of an economy - is measured by the value of goods and services produced per unit of the nations
human, capital, and natural resources. Productivity depends both on the value of a nations products and
services, measured by the prices they can command in open markets, and the efficiency with which they can
be produced.
The level of productivity
sets the sustainable level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy; more competitive economies tend to
be able to produce higher levels of income for their citizens.

determines the rates of return obtained by investments in an economy.


Wealth is actually created by the productivity with which a nation can utilize its human, capital, and natural
resources to produce goods and services. Productivity ultimately depends on the microeconomic capability of
the economy, rooted in the sophistication of companies (both local and subsidiaries of multinationals), the
quality of the national business environment, and the externalities arising from the presence of clusters of
related and supporting industries.
Unless microeconomic capabilities improve, sustainable improvements in prosperity will not occur.

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Definitie - concepte
Competitivitatea
se definete ca acel set de instituii, politici i factori care determin nivelul prezent
de productivitate al unei tri.
Este capacitatea unei firme, companii regiuni sau economii nationale de a isi pastra
sau ameliora pozitia in raport cu concurenta altor entitati comparabile; este cel mai
des vazuta din perspectiva unei natiuni si este asociata concurentei internationale
=> capacitatea unei natiuni de a produce bunuri si servicii care fac fata testului
concurentei pe pietele internationale si de a spori simultan si in mod durabil nivelul
de trai al populatiei
determin att nivelul de bunstare al unei economii la un moment dat, ct i
potenialul de cretere a acesteia in viitor.
Literatura i practica economic au evideniat faptul c dezvoltarea unei economii
bazate pe cunoatere reprezint unul dintre factorii cheie ai creterii competitivitii
unei economii.

In timp, dezvoltarea conceptului


Economitii clasici au identificat patru factori de producie: pmntul, capitalul, resursele

naturale i fora de munc (Adam Smith, 1776 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of Wealth of
Nations);
D. Ricardo (1817) - cu formularea legii avantajului comparativ Principles of Political Economy
and Taxation
Economitii marxiti au subliniat impactul mediului sociopolitic asupra dezvoltrii economice (K.
Marx 1867 Capital: a Critique of Political Economy)
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In timp abordarea conceptului


(cont.)
Weber, M., - a subliniat relaia ntre valori, credine religioase i performana

economic a naiunilor (Ethic of Protestanism and the Spirit of Capitalism,1905)

Schumpeter, J., - a relevat rolul ntreprinztorului n asigurarea competitivitii

(Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942)

Sloan, A., i Drucker, P. au elaborat pe tema recunoaterii managementului ca

factor cheie de determinare a competitivitii (Sloan, S. My Years at General


Motors 1963; Drucker, P., The Age of Discontinuity 1969);
R. Solow (laureat Nobel ptr. Economie, 1987) a subliniat importana educaiei,

a inovrii tehnologice i a elementelor de know-how studiind economia american


pe deceniile urmtoare celui de al doilea rzboi mondial (Solow, R., Technical
Change and the Aggregate Production Function, 1957);
Romer, P., Negroponte, N., - pentru definirea cunotinelor ca factor de

competitivitate (Negroponte, N.,Being Digital - 1995)

Porter, M., - a integrat aceste idei ntr-o manier sistematic - construind

Diamantul de competitivitate (Porter, M., The Competitive Advantage of


Nations 1990)
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Evaluari ale competitivitatii The microeconomic


business environment - the mechanisms of influence
(Porters Model)

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WEF 2013-2014

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii WEF The major


determinants for competitiveness (12 dimensions)
The concept of competitiveness
involves
static
and
dynamic
components.
Although the productivity of a country
determines its ability to sustain a high
level of income, it is also one of the
central determinants of its returns on
investment, which is one of the key
factors explaining an economys
growth potential.

Subindex weights and income thresholds for stages of development

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii WEF The major


determinants for competitiveness (12 dimensions)
The concept of competitiveness
involves
static
and
dynamic
components.
Although the productivity of a country
determines its ability to sustain a high
level of income, it is also one of the
central determinants of its returns on
investment, which is one of the key
factors explaining an economys
growth potential.

Subindex weights and income thresholds for stages of development

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Romania

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Romania - The most problematic


factors for doing business

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Competitivitate - productivitate
Cuantificarea obiectivului POS de competitivitate se poate realiza n termeni de
cretere a productivittii muncii, calculat ca evoluie a PIB pe persoan
ocupat.
Cresterea productivitatii muncii pe persoana ocupata poate fi aproximata si
ca:
% productivitatea muncii= %GDP real - %populatie ocupata
unde :
% reprezinta cresterea procentuala
Creterea productivitii muncii pe persoan ocupat poate fi descompus
teoretic in contribuia a doi factori: contribuia creterii capitalului pe persoan
ocupat i cea a modificrii rezidualului Solow, numit i productivitatea total a
factorilor. Productivitatea total a factorilor suprinde contribuia altor factori
dect capitalul i fora de munc la creterea PIB-ului pe persoan ocupat.
Creterea PIB pe persoan ocupat este un indicator larg folosit n practica
internaional.

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Studiu de caz - Indicatorul Productivitatea muncii


Romania de abia depaseste pragul
de 50% din media UE la
productivitatea muncii msurat
prin PIB pe persoan angajat (la
paritatea puterilor de cumprare
standard pentru a putea face
comparaia
corect,
eliminnd
diferenele date de nivelurile
diferite ale preurilor).
Sursa: EUROSTAT, code tec00116
ATTN: Gross domestic product (GDP) is a
measure for the economic activity. It is
defined as the value of all goods and
services produced less the value of any
goods or services used in their creation. GDP
per person employed is intended to give an
overall impression of the productivity of
national economies expressed in relation to
the European Union (EU27) average. If the
index of a country is higher than 100, this
country's level of GDP per person employed
is higher than the EU average and vice
versa. Basic figures are expressed in PPS, i.e.
a common currency that eliminates the
differences in price levels between countries
allowing meaningful volume comparisons of
GDP between countries.

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Labour productivity per person employed, Index (EU27 = 100) - 2013


180163.9
160
140
120
100
80
60

135.5
127.3
116
114.5
113.4
111.2
111
108.8
108.8
108.8
108.8
108.6
107.1
107
100
99.9
99.4
92.7
91.8
91.7
82.6
81.1
80.1
76.7
74.6
74.3
71.9
70.6
70
66.9
51.7
43.4

40
20
0

Romania, Labour productivity per person employed, Index (EU27 = 100)


60
51.7
51
49.1 49.3 49.7 50.4
50
43.3
39.7
40
34.6 36.1
31.3
29.4
30
20
10
0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

32

Labour productivity per hour worked - Euro per hour worked


Labour productivity per hour worked - Euro per hour worked

60

53.4
50

40

48.8

45.9 45.8 45.6 45.5

42.8

39.9 39.7 39.2

37.5 37.3
32.2 32.2 32.1 32.1

30

21.6 21.4 20.2

20

17.1
13.2 13.1

10

11.5 11.4 10.6 10.6

8.4

5.6 4.9

AIMI 2014 - 2015

33

Indicatorul - cresterea productivitatii muncii (2)


Labour productivity per hour worked, Euro per hour worked

31.4 31.3 30.8 31.5 31.9 32.1 32.2


29.9 30.3 31
29.4
29
28 28.5
30
26.7 27.2
31.3 31.2 30.7 31.4 31.8 31.9 32.1
25.3 25.7 26.3
29.8 30.2 30.9
29.3
28.9
2527.9 28.4
35

20
15
10
5 3

2.9 2.9 2.9

3.2 3.8

4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Romania

EU (27 countries)

EU (28 countries)

Labour productivity per hour w orked, Percentage change over previous period

20

16

15
10
5
0

9.8
6.8

5.4 6.2 5.4

4.5

3
2
1.4 2.2 1.6
1.4
1

1995

-5

1996

1997

1998

1999

1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 2.1 1.5


2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

7.3
2.4
-0.5

2007

-0.5

2008-1.5
2009

4
1.4
1.3

2010

0.6
0.3
-0.3

2011

2012

2013

-4.2

-5.6

-10
Romania

EU (27 countries)

EU (28 countries)

34

IMD WORLD COMPETITIVENESS YEARBOOK -

Anuarul competitivitatii globale 2014


http://www.imd.org/

AIMI 2014 - 2015

35

The fundamentals on IMDs competitiveness


Competitiveness
analyzes
how
nations
and
enterprises manage the totality of their
competencies to achieve prosperity or profit.
Competitiveness of Nations is a field of
Economic theory, which analyses the facts
and policies that shape the ability of a
nation
to
create
and
maintain
an
environment
that sustains more value
creation for its enterprises and more
prosperity for its people.
Is one of the most powerful concepts in modern
economic thinking. One of its key contributions to
classical economic theories is that competitiveness
encompasses the economic consequences of
non-economic issues, such as education,
sciences, political stability or value systems. It
is precisely because it is a multifaceted concept
that it has lead to a proliferation of definitions. The
World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY) looks at the
relationship
between
a
countrys
national
environment (where the State plays a key role) and
the wealth creation process (assumed by enterprises
and individuals). The WCY focuses on the outcome of
the interaction of four competitiveness factors, which
generally define a countrys national environment:
Economic Performance, Government Efficiency,
Business Efficiency and Infrastructure.

4 dimensions shape the countrys competitiveness


environment. They are the result of tradition, history
or value systems and are so deeply rooted in the
modus operandi of a country that, in most cases, they
are not clearly stated or defined. Countries manage
their environment according to 4 fundamental forces:
Attractiveness vs. Aggressiveness
Proximity vs. Globality
Assets vs. Processes
Individual Risk Taking vs. Social Cohesiveness.
36

The concept of competitiveness - four levels:


Efficiency, Choice, Resources and
Objectives
is primarily understood as being better than others. Productivity is thus a key determinant to such

efficiency; also implies a strategic choice in identifying those domains where an activity represents a
unique added value. The theory of
comparative advantage (David Ricardo, 1819) analyses such
dilemmas. Competitiveness means making choices about where the potential added value in international
markets is bigger than that of competitors.
entails the mobilization of a variety of resources to implement such choices. These resources are drawn
from government, infrastructure, technology,
finance, education, etc. Countries compete internationally to have access to and to manage these
resources.
The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook can be described as a mapping process that helps countries

benchmark their competitiveness by mobilizing such resources.


a) Companies focus on sustained profitability, which is the ability to generate an appropriate return on
capital over a long period of time. This concept is well-covered by economic analysis and is explained
by the field of competitive strategy.
b) Nations thrive on prosperity, a concept that we define as economic growth plus something else that
is less economic and measurable. The latter goal evolves with the economic and social development of
a country: a poorer nation may emphasize access to food and shelter for its population, a more
advanced economy may give priority to environmental protection or education. In both cases however,
economic growth remains a prerequisite, a condition that is necessary but not sufficient.
c) Individuals are motivated by increases in their standard of living and probably by something more
ideological such as the pursuit of happiness as described in the US Declaration of Independence
(1776). Several models attempt to include such concepts in economic analysis (for example, the
Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress sponsored by the
French state and which includes Nobel laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen.)

2/3/15

MAPP - MTT - 2014-2015

37

Cultural Impacts on Competitiveness - nations do not


compete with products and services alone, but also with education and
value systems.

1. Value systems evolve - four distinct phases: Hard work:


people are totally dedicated to the countrys corporate
objectives and work many hours (for example, Korea).
Wealth: although people still work hard, they pay more
attention to increasing their own incomes (for example, Singapore).
Social participation: people are less interested in hard work,
and are more involved in shaping their society (for example, the US
and Europe in the late 1960s).

Self-achievement: people are more interested in developing


their private lives, rather than pursuing societal change (for
example, the US and Europe today).

2. Value systems imply different behavioral models Three different models of society:
1) The South European Model is characterized by little
infrastructure, business regulations, and social protection, a
parallel economy, and low labor costs. It favors inventiveness.
2) The North European Model - a strong emphasis on stability,
social consensus and regulations. It favors a long-term
perspective.
3) The Anglo-Saxon Model - deregulation, privatization, labor
flexibility and a higher acceptance of risk. It fosters
entrepreneurship.
Over the past ten years, a shift has occurred from the North European model
to the Anglo-Saxon one. However, striking a balance between a hypercompetitive global business environment, close to the Anglo-Saxon model,
and a more socially responsible local environment, close to the North
European model, is still a challenge.
38

The Impact of
Technology
During the past two decades, the technological
revolution - computers, telecommunications and
Internet - have had a profound impact on the
competitiveness
of
nations.
Today,
infrastructure cannot only be considered in the
traditional terms of roads, trains, harbor facilities
and even airports. Technological infrastructure is
becoming
a
key
asset
for
the
future
competitiveness of a nation.
Technology also impacts education. The new
technological requirements of enterprises have
forced countries to give a priority to technology.
Attracting research centers, and developing
cooperation between local universities and
enterprises, is becoming just as important for the
competitiveness of a country as attracting FDI.
The Internet allows companies to develop ecommerce, e-procurements, auctions, and emarketplaces across borders. This pushes
countries to develop an advanced technological
infrastructure.
2/3/15

MAPP - MTT - 2014-2015

39

World Competitiveness Yearbook - methodology


The World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY) ranks and analyzes the ability of nations to create and maintain
an environment in which enterprises can compete. It means that we assume that wealth creation takes
place primarily at enterprise level (whether private or state owned) - this field of research is called:
"competitiveness of enterprises. However, enterprises operate in a national environment which enhances
or hinders their ability to compete domestically or internationally - this field of research is called:
"competitiveness of nations" and is covered by the WCY.
Based on analysis made by leading scholars and by our own research and experience, the methodology of
the WCY thus divides the national environment into four main factors: Economic Performance, Government
Efficiency, Business Efficiency and Infrastructure. In turn, each of these factors is divided into 5 sub-factors
which highlight every facet of the areas analyzed.
Altogether, the WCY features 20 such sub-factors. These 20 sub-factors comprise more than 300 criteria,
although each sub-factor does not necessarily have the same number of criteria (for example, it takes
more criteria to assess Education than to evaluate Prices). Each sub-factor, independently of the number
of criteria it contains, has the same weight in the overall consolidation of results, which is 5% (20x5 =100).
Criteria can be hard data, which analyzes competitiveness as it can be measured (e.g. GDP) or soft data,
which analyzes competitiveness as it can be perceived (e.g. Availability of competent managers). Hard
criteria represent a weight of 2/3 in the overall ranking, whereas the survey data represent a weight of 1/3.
In addition, some criteria are for background information only, which means that they are not used in
calculating the overall competitiveness ranking (e.g. Population under 15).
Finally, aggregating the results of the 20 sub-factors makes the total consolidation, which leads to the overall
ranking of the WCY.

40

The World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2014

41

42

2/3/15

MAPP - MTT - 2014-2015

43

44

45

46

Competitiveness Perspective 1997-2013


The vertical axis on the left indicates the 2013 ranking and the name of the country.
The blue 2013 diagonal line from top to bottom indicates the same ranking, which also intersects with the axis below. In addition, the
horizontal axis allows to read the best and worst rankings over time.
Each countrys bar highlights on the left the worst competitiveness ranking and its date and on the right the best ranking and its date.
The length of the bar indicates the spread between the two; a long bar can mean dynamism and/or volatility a shorter bar meaning
stability/and or inertia.

AIMI 2014 - 2015

47

IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013,


2014 2050
Tema de discutie:

The Competitiveness Roadmap is an attempt to describe and assess the main issues that will affect the
world competitiveness landscape over the next four decades. Issues are shown along two axes degree of impact and timescale - to provide a clear mental map of the environment in which nations
and companies will operate.
Exemple:
1. Budget deficits remain high Despite austerity plans, budget deficits remain high: Country
estimates for 2013 range from -9% of the GDP in Japan, to -5.4% in the US and -2.8% in the Euro area.
Unpopular spending cuts will prevail and not only in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy slowing down
economic recovery everywhere.
2. The economy is desynchronized Globalization is still there but the world economy is increasingly
fragmented: some nations continue to struggle with recession e.g. Greece, Portugal others confront
robust growth such as China. Some countries suffer deflation Japan and Switzerland others are
threatened by inflation, such as India, Russia and Turkey.
3. Unemployment becomes massive 25 million people lose their jobs in the OECD region and the
average jobless rate hits 7.7% in the US and 11.9% in Europe. Youth unemployment reaches record
highs, above 23% in Europe and a staggering 52% in Spain.
4. Interest rates remain low Central Banks continue to flood the market with cheap money. Some
institutions, such as the U.S. Fed, include employment levels as a target. Stock exchanges become
more attractive for higher returns.
5. Inflation is back but not everywhere The economic recovery is expected to trigger a rise in
commodity prices and demand. Excess liquidities inherited from the recession could flood the markets.
Some governments even welcome a bit of inflation to boost private consumption and reduce the
nominal value of the debt.
6. High volatility of currencies The dollar remains weak and is continually tested by financial
markets. The Euro stabilizes around 1.35 to the dollar as emerging markets cautiously buy Euro bonds
to diversify their holdings. The Chinese Yuan appreciates gradually as the government wants to
develop domestic demand.
AIMI 2014 - 2015
48

IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013 2050 Exemple (2)

7. Global debt explodes The average G20 government debt increases from 78% of GDP to 100% and
above. The US national debt now surpasses $21 trillion. Sub-sovereign debt at regional and city level
becomes critical in the US but also in Spain, and even Germany.
8. Economic nationalism on the rise Trade protectionism increases as it is linked to national stimulus
plans (e.g. buy national clauses). New protectionist measures appear that are linked to financial
regulations, environmental standards, corporate governance, etc.
15. Consumers react differently Industrialized nations are characterized by a replacement economy
where purchases replace existing products while emerging nations are in a first-buy economy stage
where purchases introduce new products into households. In other words, an industrialized economy is
defined by I want it versus one defined by I need it. Slower growth can be expected as saturation
threatens replacement economies.
16. Food commodities prices higher Food commodities have seen their prices increase by over 40%
since the end of the recession. Despite a temporary slowdown due to a weaker than expected recovery,
prices will remain high. An emerging middle class is changing its eating habits and greater demand will
push prices up again. For example, China is moving away from a rice-only diet. In a decade it has
increased its milk consumption seven-fold, poultry by 60%, beef by 30% and wheat by 25%.
17. State capitalism is fashionable Governments are moving from being stakeholders to being
shareholders of their economies. State interventions increase and national leaders consider it a priority
to defend and develop national champions. As a consequence, government spending now represents
on average 50% of the GDP in advanced economies. 80% of the stock market capitalization in
Shanghai is done by state-backed companies.
24. More managers needed everywhere - More managers are required in emerging powers. India,
China, Russia, Brazil and the Gulf region increasingly focus on management and the creation of
business schools, beyond science and engineering education. Strategy, finance and marketing skills
are now priorities for ensuring the continuous expansion of local enterprises in a global environment.
25. A new environmental strategy for companies Climate change and energy security is clearly a
priority for public opinion. Governments and companies enhance their visibility on environmental
issues and integrate an environmental dimension into their strategy. Companies that fail to do so will
not attract the best talents in the younger generation, who are very sensitive to this issue.
AIMI 2014 - 2015
49

IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013 2050 Exemple (3)


26. Life sciences and environment attract massive investments - Life sciences, as the
population becomes older (40,000 centenarians in Britain in 2030), and environmental
technology, as the world becomes hotter (+ 0.6C in 20 years), will attract massive investments.
Innovation proliferates in these two areas of knowledge. Wellness, in addition to curing existing
diseases, becomes a priority for ageing populations.
27. Intellectual property vs. open systems - The intellectual property debate encapsulates two
conceptions of world business: On the one hand the respect for innovation and invention and on
the other hand the thrust for a more open and collaborative society where information is widely
shared. Social network systems flourish and challenge government-controlled information in
some parts of the world.
28. From Service to Re-industrialization Service competitiveness and the ability to integrate
and manage a global business model were at the core of the competitiveness of Europe and the
US. However both regions have lost 20% of their industry in 20 years, thus creating a higher level
of permanent unemployment. Companies reassess extreme outsourcing and delocalization. Reshoring and re-industrialization become an economic and political priority. There is no
competitiveness without a sound manufacturing base.
29. Labor cost differences shrink - The difference in labor costs around the world is drastically
reduced as nations develop. A range from 1 to 20 today is reduced to 1 to 5 as purchasing power
around the world converges.
30. Productivity is harmonized worldwide - Productivity is harmonized around world operations as
companies become truly global and widely diffuse the same technology and processes. The value
chain is managed at the global level. The nationality of companies matters less and less. The
product made in the world is born!
32. From cheap manpower to cheap brainpower -The world moves from a competitiveness
model based on cheap manpower to one based on cheap brainpower. In total, India, China and
Russia have 14 million university students, as many as the US. These students quickly become
young professionals eager for success, who are relatively affordable and highly motivated.
Through technology, these brains can
accessed
from all over the world.
AIMIbe
2014
- 2015
50

IMD - The Competitiveness Roadmap 20132050 Exemple (4)


33. Urbanization means congestion - The urbanization of the world economy increases pressure on
economic and social infrastructure (roads, water, hospitals, etc.), the environment and also increases social
problems (rural migration to cities). In 2030, 60% of the world population lives in cities. 40 mega regions account
for two third of the worlds GDP and 85% of the technology. As a drawback, congestion becomes a major issue
everywhere.
35. From collective to individual value systems - The value system of societies in Asia gradually evolves
from one based on collective values (such as hard work and national pride) to one based on individual values
(such as work-life balance), much closer to the US and European value systems.
36. A new business model for the poor - A new business model emerges for the worlds poorest (such as in
Africa or the Indian subcontinent). Products are manufactured and sold at a fraction of the price charged
elsewhere, and with minimal functionalities. Examples: the $10 phone, $100 PC or $2,500 motor vehicle and
services such as micro-finance and mobile phone financial transactions.
37. China, India, Brazil and Russia as technological powers - China, India and Russia regain their age-old
status as technological powers. Foreign companies no longer hesitate to transfer research centers to these
countries that have a long tradition of excellence in science and innovation.
38. Retirement age increases - The pension systems in Europe and Japan are increasingly at risk. One-third
of the population is now over 60 years old; 10% is older than 80! Retirement gets closer to 70 and fluctuates
depending on the industry sector and the hardship of work. Some white-collar pension systems now have to
deal with an increasing number of centenarians. The financial crisis has reduced accumulated wealth and
employees are forced to retire later.
39. Society capitalism After a period of enterprise capitalism aimed at shareholder value, and one of
state capitalism based on local value, a period emerges focusing on society capitalism which redefines the
role of enterprises as actors to solve wider societal issues such as the environment, sustainable development,
poverty, etc.
42. Remoteness becomes irrelevant - The disappearance of most trade and investment barriers, the
efficiency of the international logistics system (roads, shipping, trains and air freight) and the pervasiveness of
communications technology give every single nation and enterprise instant access to world markets and
unlimited opportunities.
43. The technological divide disappears - The technological divide disappears because of the development
of a worldwide communications infrastructure and the proliferation of cheap technological products for the poor.

AIMI 2014 - 2015

51

EDITIA IMD ROADMAP


2013-2050

AIMI 2014 - 2015

52

EDITIA IMD ROADMAP


2014-2050

AIMI 2014 - 2015

53

Tema de discutie
KAM Banca Mondiala

The Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM)


The KAM consists of 148 structural and qualitative variables for 146

countries to measure their performance on the 4 Knowledge Economy (KE)


pillars: Economic Incentive and Institutional Regime, Education,
Innovation, and Information and Communications Technologies.
Variables are normalized on a scale of 0 to 10 relative to other countries in
the comparison group. The KAM also derives a countrys overall
Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) and Knowledge Index (KI).
AIMI 2014 - 2015

54

Economia cunoasterii si performanta economica


Corelatia dintre acumularea de cunoastere (masurata de KEI) si nivelul de dezvoltare economica
(PIB/capita) este estimat prin coeficientul de determinare de 87%.

AIMI 2014 - 2015

55

Relatia dintre KEI si rata medie de crestere


viitoare a PIB/lucrator

That higher KEI values are associated with higher rates of future economic growth (with other factors held constant) suggests that
larger stocks of knowledge stock do indeed cause higher levels of economic growth and development.
A one-unit improvement in the KEI - equivalent to an increase in ranking of one decile or 13 positions- leads to an increase of 0.49
percentage points in economic growth, after accounting for initial conditions.
AIMI 2014 - 2015

56

Evaluarea KAM ptr. Romania (basic scoreboard)


2012

1995

Bariere tarifare si netarifare, 2011

87.6

9.3

79

9.38

Calitatea reglementarii, 2009

0.62

6.92

-0.23

2.94

Legislatie, 2009

0.1

5.96

0.01

5.56

Plati si taxe de redevente (US$/pop.) 2009

24.76

6.4

0.48

3.56

Nr de articole in reviste de Stiinta si Inginerie / Mil.


Pers, 2007

58.12

6.41

29.89

Brevete recunoscute de USPTO / Mil. Pers, medie


2005-2009

0.45

5.62

0.1

5.1

Numar mediu de ani de scolarizare, 2010

10.37

7.72

9.61

8.35

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in invatamantul mediu,


2009

93.5

6.55

77.9

6.25

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in invatamantul superior,


2009

67.07

8.37

18.29

5.31

1,430,00

6.62

130

5.72

Numar computere la 1000 pers, 2008

190

6.1

10

5.32

Numar de utilizatori Internet la 1000 pers, 2009

360

5.86

7.45

Numar linii telefonice la 1000 pers, 2009

AIMI 2014 - 2015

57

Evaluarea Bancii Mondiale


KAM Romania in 2012 si in 1995
Bariere tarifare si netarifare, 2011
Numar de utilizatori Internet la 1000 pers, 2009

Calitatea reglementarii, 2009

9.3 10

6.92

Numar computere la 1000 pers, 2008

Legislatie, 2009

5.86

5
6.1

5.96

6.62

6.4

Numar linii telefonice la 1000 pers, 2009

Plati si taxe de redevente (US$/pop.) 2009


6.41

8.37

5.62

6.55

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in invatamantul superior, 2009

Nr de articole in reviste de Stiinta si Inginerie / Mil. Pers, 2007

7.72

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in invatamantul mediu, 2009

Brevete recunoscute de USPTO / Mil. Pers, medie 2005-2009

Numar mediu de ani de scolarizare, 2010

2012

AIMI 2014 - 2015

1995

58

KEI in dinamica 1995-2012


most recent

1995

Albania

4.53

4.33

Uzbekistan

3.14

4.78

Australia

8.88

9.27

Barbados

7.18

6.87

Benin

1.88

2.83

6.8

6.81

China

4.37

3.99

El Salvador

4.17

4.26

Estonia

8.4

7.94

France

8.21

8.67

Kuwait

5.33

5.71

Lesotho

1.95

3.11

United States

8.77

9.53

Mongolia

4.42

4.08

Myanmar

0.96

2.23

Romania

6.82

5.91

Russian Federation

5.78

5.67

Slovak Republic

7.64

7.22

Sweden

9.43

9.45

Bulgaria

AIMI 2014 - 2015

59

KEI in dinamica

AIMI 2014 - 2015

60

Cadrul economic 2012 Romania

AIMI 2014 - 2015

61

Tema de discutie
Banca Mondiala 3 I

AIMI 2014 - 2015

62

Banca Mondial a pus punctul pe 3 I":


INOVARE, INCLUZIUNE I INTEGRARE Afacerile de tranziie din Romnia, caracterizate prin
"nvare i experimentare"
In perioada de tranziie, mediul de afaceri din Romnia a fost orientat ctre experimentare i nvare, iar
elementele ce au impulsionat competitivitatea au fost reprezentate de intrrile i ieirile de firme de pe pia,
potrivit unui studiu eliberat de Banca Mondial (BM).
Oficialii BM au publicat un studiul "Inovare, incluziune i integrare: De la tranziie la convergen n
Europa Rsritean i fosta Uniune Sovietic", ce include concluziile Bncii Mondiale referitoare la
perioada de tranziie a rilor din Europa de Est i fostul bloc sovietic, precum i sugestii legate de msurile
ce vor trebui s fie luate de aceste state odat cu finalizarea procesului de tranziie (iunie 2008).
Printre concluziile la care au ajuns analitii BM se numr creterea productivitii, considerat ca fiind
singura cale viabil ctre o prosperitate de durat, existena "n aspecte fundamentale ale mediului de
afaceri precum concurena i finanarea, care determin comportamentul firmelor" a unui proces de
maturizare i convergen n direcia celor existente n economiile de pia dezvoltate din Europa
Occidental, precum i creterea slab a ocuprii pretutindeni, reflectnd interaciunea dintre creterea
numrului de locuri de munc n noile firme private care au putut ocupa nie de pia inexistente n
economia centralizat planificat, i reducerea acestuia n ntreprinderile de stat i privatizate.
Banca Mondial susine faptul c "rile din Europa Rsritean i fosta Uniune Sovietic se confrunt acum
cu o a treia tranziie - mbtrnirea populaiei lor, care va ncetini ritmul creterii economice dac
numrul participanilor la fora de munc nu se va mri, dac resursele nu vor fi mai eficient utilizate
i dac sistemele de pensii i sntate nu vor fi reformate pentru a nu deveni surse de acute presiuni
fiscale".
AIMI 2014 - 2015

63

Banca Mondial a pus punctul pe 3 I":


INOVARE, INCLUZIUNE I INTEGRARE Afacerile de tranziie din Romnia, caracterizate prin
"nvare i experimentare (cont.)
Revenind la situaia romnilor n acest context, analitii Bncii Mondiale au sesizat "productivitatea sczut a firmelor
nou intrate pe pia n Ungaria i Romnia, comparativ cu cele deja existente". Mai mult dect att, aceasta este
urmat de "o inversare a situaiei n circa doi ani de la nceperea activitii", fapt ce "poate semnala un mediu de
afaceri orientat ctre nvare i experimentare.
Totodat, n cazul Romniei, datele incluse n raportul BM arat c n primul an de la nceperea activitii firmele aveau
o pierdere de productivitate de peste 30%, pentru ca n doi ani de la intrarea pe pia s obin un ctig de circa
20%. Conform statisticilor, profitul se meninea relativ constant nc doi ani, pentru ca ulterior, la apte ani de la
intrarea pe pia, companiile s aib un ctig de productivitate cu puin peste 10%. Rata de supravieuire a
noilor afaceri depea 80% pentru primii doi ani, pentru a ajunge la circa 70% n primii patru ani de la intrarea
pe piaa din Romnia a unei firme. Acelai raport arat c firmele cu "via" de 7 ani aveau cota de
supravieuire de doar aproximativ 60% (raportul "Inovaie, incluziune i inovare" vizeaz perioada 1993-2005).
Firmele au fost forate s gseasc metode de supravieuire. n sprijinul ideilor menionate anterior, studiul subliniaz
faptul c "n Romnia i Ucraina, ratele de supravieuire pentru primii patru ani erau relativ asemntoare, de
circa 70%. Nou intrai erau cu aproximativ 30% mai puin productivi n Romnia, comparativ cu firmele
existente, n timp ce n Ucraina erau cu 30% mai productivi".
Raportul BM arat c n timpul procesului de tranziie de la o economie centralizat la una de pia, companiile au fost forate s gseasc
diverse metode noi de a rezista pe pia. n cazul celor ce nu au reuit s se adapteze n perioada menionat au ieit de pe pia, pe cnd
firmele care au continuat activitatea au identificat noi metode de supravieuire, un exemplu elocvent fiind realocarea resurselor. Astfel,
ideea c intrrile i ieirile de pe pia au contribuit, n statele din regiune, la creterea competitivitii mediului de afaceri devine perfect
valabil.

AIMI 2014 - 2015

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