9.

1 Sampling Distributions

Many investigations and research projects try to draw

conclusions about how the values of some variable x
are distributed in a population. Often, attention is
focused on a single characteristic of that distribution.
Examples include:
1. x = fat content (in grams) of a quarter-pound
hamburger, with interest centered on the mean fat
content of all such hamburgers

2. x = fuel efficiency (in miles per gallon) for a 2003

Honda Accord, with interest focused on the variability
in fuel efficiency as described by , the standard
deviation for the fuel efficiency population
distribution
3. x = time to first recurrence of skin cancer for a patient
treated using a particular therapy, with attention
focused on p, the proportion of such individuals whose
first recurrence is within 5 years of the treatment.

Parameter: A number that describes the population.

This number is typically unknown.

Statistic:

A number that describes the sample. We

use this number to estimate the
parameter.

Population

Sample

Parameter

Statistic

Mean

Standard
Deviation

Proportion

Standard
deviation of the
proportion

Sampling Distribution:
The distribution of all values taken by the statistic
in all possible samples of the same size from the
same population
Ex: Take 100 samples of size n = 20.

Sampling Variability:
The variation between each groups of samples of the
same size.

If I compare many different samples and the statistic

is very similar in each one, then the sampling
variability is low. If I compare many different samples
and the statistic is very different in each one, then the
sampling variability is high.

Unbiased:
When the statistic is equal to the true value of the
parameter

Unbiased Estimator:
The unbiased statistic

Ex: x 20 and = 20

How sampling works:

1. Take a large number of samples from the same
population.
2. Calculate the sample mean or sample proportion for
each sample
3. Make a histogram of the values of the statistics
4. Examine the distribution

Facts about Samples:

If the population mean ( ) and the population standard

deviation ( ) are unknown, we can use x to estimate

and use x to estimate . These estimates may or may
not be reliable.
If I chose a different sample, it would still represent
the same population. A different sample almost always
produces different statistics.
A statistic can be unbiased and still have high
variablility. To avoid this, increase the size of the
sample. Larger samples give smaller spread.

Example #1: Classify each underlined number as a

parameter or statistic. Give the appropriate notation
for each.
a. Forty-two percent of todays 15-year-old girls will
get pregnant in their teens.
Parameter
p = 0.42

Example #1: Classify each underlined number as a parameter or statistic.

Give the appropriate notation for each.

b. The National Center for Health Statistics reports

that the mean systolic blood pressure for males 35 to
44 years of age is 128 and the standard deviation is
15. The medical director of a large company looks at
the medical records of 72 executives in this age group
and finds that the mean systolic blood pressure for
these executives is 126.07.
128 and 15 are parameters
= 128
= 15

126.07 is a statistic

x 126.07

Example #2: Suppose you have a population in which

60% of the people approve of gambling.
a. Is 60% a parameter or a statistic? Give appropriate
notation for this value.
Parameter,

p = 0.60

You want to take many samples of size 10 from this population to

observe how the sample proportion who approve of gambling
vary in repeated samples.
b. Describe the design of a simulation using the partial random
digits table below to estimate the sample proportion who approve
of gambling. Label how you will conduct the simulation. Then
carry out five trials of your simulation. What is the average of
the samples? How close is it to the 60%?

Assign: 0 5 approve of gambling

Stop:

6-9 dont

After choosing 10

Count: # of people that approve of gambling

Repeaters: Ok to have repeat numbers, represent new
person

A D AAD

AD AD A

3 6 0 0 9
3 9 6 3 8

1 9 3 6 5
8 5 4 5 3

1 5 4 1 2
4 6 8 1 6

3 8 4 4 8
2 4 6 9 7

4 8 7 8 9
3 9 3 6 4

1 8 3 3 8
4 2 0 0 6

8 2 7 3 9
4 7 5 1 1

5 7 8 9 0
8 1 6 7 6

2 0 8 0 7
5 5 3 0 0

6 0 9 4 0
2 4 9 4 3

7 2 0 2 4
6 1 7 9 0

1 7 8 6 8
9 0 6 5 6

6 8 4 1 7
7 2 7 6 5

3 5 0 1 3
8 5 0 8 9

1 5 5 2 9
5 7 0 6 7

1:

6/10 = 60%

2:

4/10 = 40%

3:

4/10 = 40%

4:

7/10 = 70%

5:

7/10 = 70%

.6 .4 .4 .7 .7
5

p 0.56

c. The sampling distribution of p is the distribution of

p from all possible SRSs of size 10 from this
population. What would be the mean of this
distribution if this process was repeated 100 times?
p = 0.60

d. If you used samples of size 20 instead of size 10,

which sampling distribution would give you a better
estimate of the true proportion of people who
approve of gambling? Explain your answer.

20, larger the sample size means less variability

e. Make a histogram of the sample distribution.

Describe the graph.
C: 60%
U: none
S: Approx.
symmetrical
S: Range = 10-1
=9

9.2 Sample Proportions

Using proportions:

count of "successes in sample X

p

size of sample
n

Remember Ch8?

x np

x np (1 p )

Use these when you know p

What if you only know the proportion of a sample?

Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion:

p p p
p

p(1 p )
n

Rule of Thumb #1:

You can only use p if the population is 10X the
sample size . A census should be impractical!

p (1 p)
n

when

N 10n

Rule of Thumb #2:

Only use the Normal approximation of the sampling
distribution of p when:

np 10

and

n(1 p ) 10

Conclusion:
If p is the population proportion then,

N np, np (1 p )

If p is the sample proportion then,

N p,

ONLY if

np 10

p (1 p )

and

n(1 p ) 10

So, to calculate a Z-score for this!

statistic parameter
Standardized test statistic:
standard deviation of statistic

p p
p (1 p )
n

Or

p p
p

Example #1
Suppose you are going to roll a fair six-sided die 60 times and
record , the proportion of times that a 1 or a 2 is showing.

a. Where should the distribution of the 60 -values be

centered?

2 1
p
6 3

b. What is the standard deviation of the sampling

distribution of p , the proportion of all rolls of the die
that show a 1 or a 2 out of the 60 rolls ?
Rule of Thumb #1: Population is 10X sample size

p (1 p )

.33(1 .33)
0.60858
60

c. Describe the shape of the sampling distribution of p

Justify your answer.
Rule of Thumb #2:

np 10

and

n(1 p ) 10

1
60 10
3

1
60 1 10
3

20 10

40 10

Approximately Normal.

N 0.5, 0.60858

Example #2
According to government data, 22% of American children
under the age of 6 live in households with incomes less than the
official poverty level. A study of learning in early childhood
chooses an SRS of 300 children. What is the probability that
more than 20% of the sample are from poverty households?

Rule of Thumb #1: N 10n

N 10(300)
N 3000
Population is 10X sample size, ok to use standard
deviation

Example #2
According to government data, 22% of American children
under the age of 6 live in households with incomes less than the
official poverty level. A study of learning in early childhood
chooses an SRS of 300 children. What is the probability that
more than 20% of the sample are from poverty households?

p 0.22

Example #2
According to government data, 22% of American children
under the age of 6 live in households with incomes less than the
official poverty level. A study of learning in early childhood
chooses an SRS of 300 children. What is the probability that
more than 20% of the sample are from poverty households?

Rule of Thumb #2:

np 10
300 0.22 10
66 10

n(1 p ) 10
300 1 0.22 10
234 10

and

Approximately Normal.

N p,

p (1 p )

p 0.22

p (1 p )

.22(1 .22)
0.0239
300

N 0.22, 0.0239

Example #2
According to government data, 22% of American children
under the age of 6 live in households with incomes less than the
official poverty level. A study of learning in early childhood
chooses an SRS of 300 children. What is the probability that
more than 20% of the sample are from poverty households?

p p
0.20 0.22

0.8362
0.0239
p (1 p )
n

 = 0.0239

0.20

0.22

P(Z 0.8362) = 1 P(Z 0.8362)

 = 0.0239

0.20

0.22

P(Z 0.8362) = 1 P(Z 0.8362)

= 1 0.2005
= 0.7995
Or: normalcdf(0.20, 1000000, 0.22, 0.0239) = 0.7985

b. How large a sample would be needed to guarantee

that the standard deviation of is no more than 0.01?
Explain.

p
0.01

p(1 p )
n
.22(1 .22)
n

0.1716
0.0001
n

0.0001n 0.1716

n 1716

9.3 Sample Means

Sample Means Distribution:

x
n

How do you determine normality?

If sample distribution is drawn from a Normal
population, sample distribution is Normal, no
matter how big n is

If sample distribution is drawn from a Skewed

population, sample distribution is Skewed, if n is
small.

Central Limit Theorem: (CLT)

No matter what the population distribution looks
like, if n 30, then the sample distribution is
approximately normal.

To calculate z-scores:

statistic parameter
Standardized test statistic:
standard deviation of statistic

x
Z

Or

x
Z
x

Example #1
A soft-drink bottler claims that, on average, cans contain 12 oz of
soda. Let x denote the actual volume of soda in a randomly
selected can. Suppose that x is normally distributed with = 0.16
oz. Sixteen cans are to be selected, and the soda volume will be
determined for each one.

a. Describe the shape of the sample distribution

Because the population is approx normal, so
is the sample distribution

Example #1
A soft-drink bottler claims that, on average, cans contain 12 oz of
soda. Let x denote the actual volume of soda in a randomly
selected can. Suppose that x is normally distributed with = 0.16
oz. Sixteen cans are to be selected, and the soda volume will be
determined for each one.

b. Calculate the sample mean and standard deviation

12

0.16
x

0.04
n
16

Example #1
A soft-drink bottler claims that, on average, cans contain 12 oz of
soda. Let x denote the actual volume of soda in a randomly
selected can. Suppose that x is normally distributed with = 0.16
oz. Sixteen cans are to be selected, and the soda volume will be
determined for each one.
c. Determine the probability the sample mean soda volume is
between 11.9 oz and 12.1 oz of the companys claim.
Z

x
Z

12.1 12

2.5
0.04

= 0.04

11.9 12

2.5
0.04
11.9 12 12.1

P( -2.5 < Z < 2.5) = P(Z < 2.5) P(Z< -2.5)

= P(Z < 2.5) P(Z< -2.5)

P( -2.5 < Z < 2.5) = P(Z < 2.5) P(Z< -2.5)

= 0.9938 0.0062
= 0.9876

Or: normalcdf(11.9, 12.2, 12, 0.04) = 0.9876

Example #2
The weights of newborn children in the United States vary
according to the normal distribution with mean 7.5 pounds and
standard deviation 1.25 pounds. The government classifies a
newborn as having low birth weight if the weight is less than 5.5
pounds.

a. What is the probability that a baby chosen at

random weighs less than 5.5 pounds at birth?
x 5.5 7.5
1.6
Z
1.25

= 1.25

P(Z < -1.6) =

5.5 =7.5

P(Z < -1.6) = 0.0548

Or: normalcdf(-1000000, 5.5, 7.5, 1.25) = 0.0548

Example #2
The weights of newborn children in the United States vary
according to the normal distribution with mean 7.5 pounds and
standard deviation 1.25 pounds. The government classifies a
newborn as having low birth weight if the weight is less than 5.5
pounds.
b. You choose forty babies at random and compute their mean
weight. What are the mean and standard deviation of the
mean weight of the three babies?

Distribution approx normal because population is,

also n 30

7.5

1.25
x

0.1976
n
40

Example #2
The weights of newborn children in the United States vary
according to the normal distribution with mean 7.5 pounds and
standard deviation 1.25 pounds. The government classifies a
newborn as having low birth weight if the weight is less than 5.5
pounds.
c. What is the probability that the forty babies average birth
weight is less than 5.5 pounds?

x 5.5 7.5
10.12
Z

0.1976
n

= 0.1976

P(Z < -10.12) =

5.5 =7.5

P(Z < -10.12) = 0

Or: normalcdf(-1000000, 5.5, 7.5, 0.1976) = 0

Example #2
The weights of newborn children in the United States vary
according to the normal distribution with mean 7.5 pounds and
standard deviation 1.25 pounds. The government classifies a
newborn as having low birth weight if the weight is less than 5.5
pounds.
d. Would your answers to a, b, or c be affected if the
distribution of birth weights in the population were distinctly
nonnormal?

Yes, you couldnt use the normal approximation

for part a.
Part b and c are fine because n 30, and by the
CLT, the distribution is approximately normal