Learning Curve and

Forgetting Factor
Laboratory Exercise 1
IE 3269 POM
R. R. Lindeke, Ph.D.

General Ideas on Learning

With

proper design, the learning effect can be

driven together to balance out the grow phase
of the product lifecycle!
Learning is usually expressed as a % -- the
lower the % the faster is the learning!
Learning represents the rate of improvement,
if it is 20% each time the quantity is doubled,
then the learning percent would be 80%
(100-20=80).
While the learning curve emphasizes time, it
can be easily extended to costs as well

Modeling Learning Behavior

The

learning behavior of systems and

individuals is consider to follow this model:
y = axb
y - time to assemble the xth unit
a - time to assemble the 1st unit
b - measure of "Learning Rate"
x - unit number

is a decimal value (<1) that relates the

improvement seen as repetitions increase

Working with data in the Learning

Experiment

When building a Learning Curve, we should perform a

linearization operation and find a least squares
regression fit to our experimental data set
To linearize our data set, compute the Log (base 10 or
base e) of observed times and unit number of
repetition
The intercept of the fitted line (log data plotted on a
linear axis!) is the log(a) value for the linear fit (a as
defined above)
The slope of the fitted line is the b value in the learning
curve equation

And note: Learning Rate = 10^(b*log2)

Computing b by hand uses selected

data when observed unit number doubles
f (2 x) a (2 x)b (1)

Using the learning ideas stated

above

b = log(time-ratiounits double)/log(2)

f ( x) ax b
(2)
Dividing (1) by (2):
f (2 x) y2 x a(2 x)b

f ( x)
yx
axb

This equation can be used as a

spot check, real slope, and thus
real learning rate, is computed by y2 x 2b
yx
regression using all our
observations!
Solving for b:
b

log

y2 x

y
x

log 2

Learning In the Limit

Mathematically, we can see that if we are positively

learning, the b value is a negative number (indicating a
decimal value b<1)
Eventually, the time to assembly or perform any
learnable task will approach an asymptotic value that
is controlled by the time it takes the ideal worker to
accomplish all the required steps this is a number
that can be computed using (micro) motion analysis
and the various steps needed
Our learning curves will eventually fail to predict
expected times for performing an activity (they will
eventually underestimate actual times)

Considering the Forgetting Factor

Like

all human activities (consider your

math or physics courses!!?!) if we stop
doing something for awhile, we are
rusty when we start up again
Same ideas hold true for manufacturing!
This idea is called the forgetting factor
(mathematically)

Computing FF Effects:
Forgetting

Factor studies consider Production

Rate (compared to production times as seen in
learning curve)
The model of the forgetting factor computes
the rate loss due to forgetting between
batches
This value can be used (along with learning
curve values) to project batch by batch
production rates (and times)

The Forgetting Factor Model:

Y

c ( n 1)

Ycn (1 F ) *(Yn Ycn )

where :
Yc ( n 1) Starting Rate for the Next Batch
Ycn Starting Rate for Last Batch
Yn Ending Rate for Last Batch
F Forgeting Factor (range 0 to 1)

Using Learning & Forgetting to

Project Forward:
Assume an 83% Learning Curve where:
a 67.2 minutes; b .2688
F 25%
producing in batchs of 300 units
Y301w./FF 1
Y301w./ FF

1 .25 * 1

.2688

67.2
67.2*300
0.0149 .75*.0541 0.0554 u/min

therefore:
y301w./ FF 1

Y301w./ FF

.0554

18.0419 min

67.2

Continuing:
Y301w./ o.FF 1

1
0.069 u/min
14.492
67.2*301
Y301 due to forgetting 0.069 0.0554 0.0136 u/min
.2688

y301w./ o. FF 67.2*301.2688 14.492

y301 due to forgetting 3.549 min

Slope offset (on lin. curve due to forgetting)
301 to 600: log( y301w./ FF ) log( y301w./ o. FF )
1.2562 1.1611 .0951 (longer)
note "Logs" because this is where times are linear!

Projecting forward to 601 w. FF:

y600 w./ FF 10

log(67.2*600.2688 ) 0.0951

10log(12.039) 0.0951

y600 w./ FF 101.176 14.988

Y600 w./ FF 1

y600 w./ FF

1
0.0667 u/min
14.988

Y601w.'2' FF Y301w./ FF 1 .25 * Y600 w./ FF Y301w./ FF

Y601w.'2' FF 0.0554 0.75* 0.0667 0.0554 0.0639 u/min

y 601w.'2' FF 1

.0639

15.656 min vs. y601w / o. FF 12.033 min

This iterative computational method can be continued over any

number of batches using a similar technique

Computing Batch Times (for

planning)
yavg
yavg

N2 12

N1 1 2

ax b

( N 2 1 2 ) ( N1 1 2 )

a *[( N 2 1 2)1b ( N1 1 2 )1b ]

(1 b) *( N 2 N1 1)

WHERE :
yavg Average time to produce a unit in the batch
N1 1st unit of run (batch)
N 2 Last unit of run (batch )
a, b from Learning rate equation
Total run (batch) production time yavg *( N 2 N1 )

Using Batch Predictors:

These

are effective during interrupted

processing
They are obsolete once asymptotic
times are reached (unit times are a
constant)
They do not hold if forgetting factors are
in play

Summary:

The idea of the Learning Curve is universal

Organizations can plan production around this effect

It has a greater impact on complex than simple production

systems
To ramp up to match product life cycle curves

Organization must guard against the Forgetting Factor

Effect

This is one of the reasons for modern CAM to be profitable

Forgetting factors are less pronounced if the ways are
remembered by design
Forgetting is less important if only similar are processed
regardless of batch time and time between batches
Forgetting is affected greatly by the time away for a specific
product

Summary, Typical Learning Rates:

By Operation Mix
75%

hand assembly/25% machining =

80% learning
50% hand assembly/50% machining =
85% learning
25% hand assembly/75% machining =
90% learning

Summary, Typical Learning Rates:

By Industry

Aerospace 85%
Shipbuilding 80-85%
Complex machine tools for new models 75-85%
Repetitive electronics manufacturing 90-95%
Repetitive machining or punch-press operations 9095%
repetitive electrical operations 75-85%
Repetitive welding operations 90%
Raw materials 93-96%
Purchased Parts 85-88%