Capacity Planniing in GUL Networks

Capacity planning in mobile data networks
experiencing exponential growth in demand.

Informas 3G, HSPA & LTE Optimization Conference,
17th April 2012, Prague, Czech Republic.
.
Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen,

Technology, Deutsche Telekom AG.
The mega disruptive challenges

cks
u
b
a
Meg
g
Me
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a
Mega Hz
Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, 3G, HSPA+ & LTE Optimization, April 17th 2012, Prague, Czech Republic. 2
A typical data traffic day in Europe.

Illustration
data
voice
6:00
00:00
8:00
10:00 12:00
14:00
17:00
22:00
Small Cells
@Home
(1 2 Cells)
On the
Go
@Work
(2 4 Cells)
On the
Go
@Home
(2 3 Cells)
Todays bit pipe and the bottlenecks.
Network expansion as traffic management remedy.
Off Loading
(AP, Femto, )
Air/TRX/Site
Node
Spectrum &
Floor space
Processing
capacity
Backhaul
Backbone
Core
Web
bandwidth
bandwidth
Switching
Apps servers
Bandwidth, CPU &
Storage.
+ Sectorization
+ Small cells
+ Additional spectral
capacity (if available)
+ Introduce more
efficient technology
traffic pressure points

due to aggregation
RNC
RNC
SGSN
SGSN
LL MW Fiber
+ Colors
GGSN
GGSN
Packet
Core
Web 2.0
Node
+CPU
+CPU (i.e., CE, etc.)
(up-to system limit)
RRC
+ Colors
+ switching
capacity
+ CPU
+ switching
capacity
RAB
PDP context
Optimized radio resource management (control plane)
Data traffic trend to be considered.

Most mobile data traffic is fixed-like in its usage.
Illustration
Number of sites utilized per
usage category.
20% mobility
50% of all traffic generated in 1 cell1.
80% data traffic carried by 3 cells1.
Remaining 20% carried over 28 cells.
Traffic off-load via WiFi & small-cell should be

pursued more aggressively.
1
on a per user basis. Note: This empirical law applies to volume as well as packet switched signaling.
Law of small numbers of large consumption.

Usage trend very much Pareto like.
Illustration
Customers versus
Data Volumetric Consumption
12 month ago
80% subs took 20% of data traffic.
Today
A bit more than 30% of data traffic1
Data Volumetric Consumption
Ca. 5% of active data users consume more than 1GB per

month, more than 3 the average monthly usage.
1
Some of the diffusion over the 12 month might also be impacted by FUP cutting off the extreme usage.
3G traffic distribution
50% of sites carries 80% of 3G devices and 95% of 3G traffic.
Illustration
@ Busy Hour 3G-Devices, 3G-Traffic

100%
80%
60%
20% of 3G-cells carries 50% of 3G devices.
50% of 3G-cells carries 80% of 3G devices.
20% of 3G-cells carries 60+% of 3G traffic.
50% of 3G-cells carries 95% of 3G traffic.
40%
20%
3G Devices
3G-Traffic Volume
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
3G-Cells
Relative few network resources serves most of the demand.
Postpaid trends growth slowing down?

100%
iPhone
Smartphone
Data growth
Volume growth
180%
160%
Smartphone
penetration
80%
Basic phone
65%
50%
30%
Active Postpaid
Data users
2009
Other
15%
2010
Data customer growth

Android
27%
Blackberry
14%
Total
Android
Apple
44%
275%
Android
95%
Illustration
2011
120%
65%
2009
35%
2010
40%
2011
Note: >90% of all smartphones are active data users. 65% of all postpaid have a smartphone, iPhone has a 40% share of all postpaid smartphones.
Prepaid trends the next growth wave!

100%
Prepay data growth

500%
Volume growth
Smartphone
penetration
Smartphone
iPhone.
250%
3%
Active Prepaid
Data users
Basic phone
2009
2010
22%
2011
Prepay data customer growth

Other
16%
Android
19%
Apple
10%
550%
Total
400%
Android
170%
Blackberry
55%
Illustration
7%
60%
2009
2010
2011
of all prepaid smartphones are active data users. Ca. 20% of all prepaid have a smartphone, iPhone share is 10% of all prepaid smartphones.
The difference between post- & pre-paid?

Illustration
Daily volumetric profile
Busy Hour usage patterns

Postpaid
Prepaid
15 : 1
Postpaid
Prepaid
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
4 distinct postpay usage segments with 3 similar for prepay

1
.
OS Last 12 month in smartphone heavy MNO.

Illustration
PS Signaling
development
per device
Jan-11
+12 Month
RIM
- 30% Signaling
Android: from 10% 25% share

+ 25% volume
Windows
- 35% signaling
Apple iOS
Symbian
Basic phone
Volume development per device
Great improvement in iOS & RIM signaling load Android not so!
1
Size of bubbles = share of active devices.

PS Signaling The network challenge?

Remains a challenge for network aggregation points.
Illustration
CAGR +95% over period

Introducing
3GPP Fast Dormancy
Introducing
CELL-PCH 1
+140%
-50%
+200%
Much have been done on signaling and we have gotten smarter.

1
NSN based feature.

3G growth
Growth will
will continue
continue for some time
and eventually decline as subs convert to LTE.
Illustration of a European Market
with ca. 50+% prepaid base.
Illustration
Total 3G Data Traffic1
CAGR 45% @ 2012 - 2017
GSM 3G Conversion
3G
Prepaid
CAGR 75%
@ 2006 - 2011
2006
3G LTE
Conversion
3G
Contract
2017
2025
Note: Due to the complex dynamics of technology migration and dependency on operator policy the phase-off of 3G is highly uncertain.
Total growth another leap with LTE.

Illustration of a European Market
LTE introduction 2013 earliest.
Illustration
CAGR 52% @ 2020 - 2025
Total Data Traffic
by 2025
500+ 2015 traffic
@ 100% LTE share
3G LTE Conversion
LTE CAGR 84%
@ 2013 - 2018
LTE 2 3G Traffic
@ 30% LTE share
2012
LTE
2018
2025
When data demand exceeds spectral efficiency gains.

Houston we have problem.
Illustration of a European market 1
The spectrum crunch.

Leapfrog network capacity, e.g.,
Small cells topologies
Spectral demand could

exceed spectral efficiency
Early
LTE deployment
between
2014 - 2016.
Price, Control & Policy.
Smart antennas
3G LTE LTE-a
Conversion
NOT GOOD
AT
ALL!
Mobile operator with (1) 20MHz @ 800MHz (LTE), (2) 20MHz @

900MHz (2GHSPA),(3) 50MHz @ 1800MHz (2GLTE), (4)
30MHz @ 2100MHz (HSPA+). Total spectrum position 120 MHz.
1
More spectrum.
A lot more
Complexity, Capex and Opex
(*) realWireless report for Ofcom,: 4G Capacity Gains, Final Report, January 2011.
Data Mining perception versus real experience.

Tangible network factors impacting customer perception.
Etc..
Financial
Network
Experience
Data
Data
Satisfaction
Data
QoE
Speed
Segmentation
CSSR
CDR
Data
Expectations
Expectations
unfulfilled
fulfilled
Customer
Behavioral
Service Data
Data
Dis-satisfaction
Device
Network State
From cell level up
Mobility
Data
Voice
Signaling
Load
SMS
Data Mining customer perception versus experience.

Strength of market survey data with hard network-centric data.
Dissatisfied Groups Characteristics
< 90% of the time on 3G when using data.
Illustration
3G Coverage & Capacity.
Successful PDP context creations < 80%.

3G Voice Call Setup Duration > 3 seconds.
2G Voice Call Setup Duration > 5 seconds.
Postal code areas (i.e., coverage/capacity)
Handset type
(e.g., iPhone 3GS and Blackberry 9700) .
Data usage > 300MB per month.

Number of sites visited > 60.
Voice call duration per month >450
minutes.
A relatively high bill.
(i.e., higher bill, higher expectations)
Network Optimization.
Re-prioritizing deployment.
Ca. 35+% of smartphones.
Ca. 30% of active customer.
< 5% of active customer.
Out of Technology Scope
Dependency on perceived quality.
*Participants in the survey are informed and agreed (i.e., opt in policy applied) that their data will be used for research. No DPI applied.
Data Mining the Big Data picture 1.
Capacity planning on the cell level using data mining strategies.

Illustration
Cell Input Xj (per hour).
<Voice calls>, <R99 users>UL,

UL, DL
DL
<HS-D/U-PA users>, Max HS-D/U-PA users,
C4ell
Radio Resource Control Attempts**,
C1ell
Radio Access Bearer (total, voice, data)

<Soft-HO area>, <DL / UL Speed>
Cn-2ell
Cnell
Cn-1ell
<Voice / Data proportion originating in cell>
n = 20,000 Cells
5 load-functions (output)
16 input cell-level parameters (input)
Up-to 100,000 regression models.
Planning validity < 4+ month
Cell Output: Ci=1..5

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
RAB release by interference

Average Noise Raise (ANR)
R99 specific ANR
Consumed DL Power
No Code Available
Paper on Mass Scale Modeling for Prediction and Simulation of the Air-Interface Load in 3G Radio Access Networks, by Radosavljevik, v.d. Putten & K. Kyllesbech
Larsen submitted to The 18th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining12, *One 1 RRC per active device.
1
The network state-equation .. is there such a thing?

Calculating the critical driver limit for capacity demand.
nj #active devices
in
all
Number of devices per cell.
Rate of concurrent instances of demand

per unit time.
99
Vo
ice
PA
A
UP
gn
(v
1)
)R
Fundamental load drivers
HSD
HS
Si
1
( 1)
)
(z 1
)
(y 1
(x
Illustration
Effective rate pj
per device
Cell
Average load of cell j:
Solve for ncritical

or pcritical
critical
critical
Ci Installed capacity
Critical driver level (e.g., #devices) resulting in capacity upgrade is

(simplified)
k is the number of standard deviation over the mean that is considered.

The network state-equation ...practical applications.

Examples from a 3,000+ Node 3G network
The network (cell-based) state-equation allows reliable long-term

3G radio resource capacity planning.
1
.
What about FUP? ...Fair? Effective? or a FAD?

Illustration
FUP flavors
Volume per User
Hard volume-limit throttling.

BH throttling.
Throttling
FUP Limit
1 Mbps
Service based (dpi) throttling.
64 kbps
Days of
normal usage
31
Subscription days per month
Traffic de-prioritization etc

Re-active remedy.
Typically capture <2% of users.
Does not address signaling
challenge from smartphone Apps.
Mobile FUP implementations might not be very efficient

as a structural traffic management remedy.
1
.
FUP or FAD?
Volume-driven FUP (of today) has little structural impact.
Time to
FUP limit
80%
98%
< 0.5%
< 2%
Example:
>2,500 Years
>250 Years
2,000 FUP relevant users

20,000 Cells in Network
>25 Years
50% of FUP in 20% of Cells

1,000 FUP served by 4,000 Cells
>2.5 Year
100 Days
30 Days = Reset
10 Days
Days to reach 500MB
1 Day
Days to reach 2GB
2.5 Hour
Illustration
1
FUP Addressable
BH mean value of users1 per cell

is 185 in the Top 20% Cells.
1 FUP relevant customer would
compete for resources with at least
185 others in the Busy Hour 2.
Daily usage per active user
Approx. log-norm distribute, 2 in max of the Top-20% cells.

Pre- & post-FUP implementation.

Marginal traffic reduction achieved with FUP.
Daily Tail Volume Profile
>2 GB usage
Daily Active Customer Profile

> 2 GB usage
Max. 0.25% of total
Active Base
55% of total traffic
-15% Drop
Max -0.05% Drop

Pre-FUP
Max -10% Drop

Pre-FUP
Post-FUP
Post-FUP
Illustration
Note: Fair Use Policy with throttling to 64kbps after limit has been reached.
What we need to be passionate about.
Customer usage, experience and imposed policies impact.
Deep understanding of data traffic is crucial.
Automation (data mining combined with machine learning) way forward.
Ensuring best customer experience at all times & at lowest cost.
Detecon is specialized in providing ICT management consulting

services with the infrastructure of a global player.
Detecon advises on the issues of strategy, organization, and
technology design for Telecommunications and IT companies.
DETECON International GmbH
Contact: M.-A. Schultze
Established in 1977, Detecon is experienced, thanks to the

successful realization of more than 6,000 projects.
Phone +49 160 8841957

www.detecon.com
info@detecon.com
Detecon is international, with worldwide representation, clients in

165 countries, and employees from more than 30 nations.
Detecon has in-depth knowledge of the
industry and a consulting approach
oriented towards implementation
and cooperation as partners.
Detecon is part of
Deutsche Telekom Group.
Detecon Branch Offices

Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, 3G, HSPA+ & LTE Optimization, April 17th 2012, Prague, Czech Republic.
25
Thank you fo
r your interes
t!
Acknowledgement: I am indebted to Veli-Pekka Kroger and Dejan

Radosavljevik for greatly enhancing this work with valuable discussions
and sharp analytical insights. Last but not least I acknowledge my wife Eva
Varadi for her great support and understanding during the creation of this
presentation.
Contact: kim.larsen@telekom.de
Mobile: +31 6 2409 5202
http://nl.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen
http://www.slideshare.net/KimKyllesbechLarsen

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Capacity planning in mobile data networks

experiencing exponential growth in demand.

Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen,

The mega disruptive challenges

A typical data traffic day in Europe.

Todays bit pipe and the bottlenecks.

Network expansion as traffic management remedy.

traffic pressure points

Optimized radio resource management (control plane)

Data traffic trend to be considered.

50% of all traffic generated in 1 cell1.

80% data traffic carried by 3 cells1.

Remaining 20% carried over 28 cells.

Traffic off-load via WiFi & small-cell should be

Law of small numbers of large consumption.

80% subs took 20% of data traffic.

A bit more than 30% of data traffic1

Data Volumetric Consumption

Ca. 5% of active data users consume more than 1GB per

@ Busy Hour 3G-Devices, 3G-Traffic

20% of 3G-cells carries 50% of 3G devices.

50% of 3G-cells carries 80% of 3G devices.

20% of 3G-cells carries 60+% of 3G traffic.

50% of 3G-cells carries 95% of 3G traffic.

Relative few network resources serves most of the demand.

Postpaid trends growth slowing down?

Data customer growth

Prepaid trends the next growth wave!

Prepay data growth

Prepay data customer growth

The difference between post- & pre-paid?

Busy Hour usage patterns

4 distinct postpay usage segments with 3 similar for prepay

OS Last 12 month in smartphone heavy MNO.

Android: from 10% 25% share

Size of bubbles = share of active devices.

PS Signaling The network challenge?

CAGR +95% over period

Much have been done on signaling and we have gotten smarter.

NSN based feature.

CAGR 45% @ 2012 - 2017

Total growth another leap with LTE.

CAGR 52% @ 2020 - 2025

Total Data Traffic

When data demand exceeds spectral efficiency gains.

The spectrum crunch.

Spectral demand could

Mobile operator with (1) 20MHz @ 800MHz (LTE), (2) 20MHz @

Data Mining perception versus real experience.

Data Mining customer perception versus experience.

< 90% of the time on 3G when using data.

Successful PDP context creations < 80%.

(e.g., iPhone 3GS and Blackberry 9700) .

Data usage > 300MB per month.

A relatively high bill.

(i.e., higher bill, higher expectations)

Data Mining the Big Data picture 1.

Capacity planning on the cell level using data mining strategies.

Cell Input Xj (per hour).

<Voice calls>, <R99 users>UL,

Radio Resource Control Attempts**,

Radio Access Bearer (total, voice, data)

<Voice / Data proportion originating in cell>

Cell Output: Ci=1..5