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Introduction
Need of a New System/ Instrument:
Example
1. In an informal financial system, there
was a greater credit risk. To mitigate
this risk, the need of a formal
financial system was felt.
2. The basic forms of sources of funds
(???) were not fulfilling the need of
entrepreneurs and hence, there was
need
of
development
of
new
instruments to raise funds e.g: Hybrid
instruments (FCCB, ECB etc.)
Definition
Financial
engineering
involves
the
of
innovative
the
formulation
of
creative
Functions
Functions of financial engineers:
Functions are not limited to the listed
ones. Few of them are:
1. Investment and Money Management:
Mutual Funds, Money Market Funds,
Repo market etc.
2. Security and Derivative Products
Trading:
To take advantage of
arbitrage, innovation of program
trading (??).
Continue
3. Corporate Finance: formulation of new
instruments to raise funds, pay-off
debts etc.
4. Investment Banks: IPO management,
M&A
( Pricing methods of IPO, Innovative
ideas to handle M&A like: issuance of
junk bond, Leverage Buy-outs (LBO)
etc.).
5. Risk Management: Development of
Case 1
Tools of F.Es
F.E.
Concept
ual Tools
Accounting
Relationship,
Valuation Theory,
Portfolio Theory,
hedging Theory etc.
Physical
Tools
Instruments like: Equities,
Derivatives, Bonds etc.
Processes: Electronic
Securities Trading, IPO,
Private placements etc.
Risk
Define it ???
Price Risk
Risk is any deviation in expected value
of a security/ portfolio/ asset class.
Systematic Risk
Business risk is the risk of fluctuations in sales
revenue. It arises from macroeconomic factors
such as economic swings and deregulation, and
demand factors such as seasonality of demand.
This risk is not totally systematic, however, and
some of it can be reduced by diversification of
the firm's operations.
Continue..
Unsystematic Risk
Interest rate risk arises both from
fixed
and
floating
rate
debt.
Unanticipated changes in floating
interest rates can cause costs to rise.
Floating-rate debt offers a long-run
hedge against inflation risk.
At the same time, a fixed rate debt can
cause financial difficulties in case interest
rates drop. This is therefore a major risk
faced by almost all companies. It can be
hedged against in many ways.
Continue
Currency (or foreign exchange)
risk arises when cash inflows or
outflows take place in foreign currency.
This risk can be either diversified or
hedged.
Commodity price risk arises from
unanticipated changes in commodity
prices and can be hedged.
Calculation of Risk
Systematic Risk:
Unsystematic Risk
Total Risk
Diversification
What is beta ??
Forward Market
A forward contract is a contract between two
parties to exchange assets or services at a
specified time in the future at a price agreed
upon at the time of the contract.
How do you the future price today ???
What is risk here ??
Future Market
Continue
Strike
Price
Delivery
(K)
Price
ST
Continue
Pay-off from
Long position in future/ Forward = ST -K
Where ST = Spot price of asset at maturity
K = Strike Price (Delivery price)
- Short position in future/ Forward = K - ST
Symbol
NIFTY
NIFTY
NIFTY
NIFTY
Date
18-Dec14
19-Dec14
22-Dec14
23-Dec14
24-Dec-
Settle
Expiry
Price
Underly
ing
Value
Pay-off
124.00
67.00
25.20
40.70
Pay-off Diagram
140.00
Pay-of
120.00
100.00
Pay-Off
80.00
60.00
40.00
Pay-off
20.00
0.00
8159.3
8174.1
8225.2000000000007
8267
8324
-20.00
-40.00
-60.00
Spot Price of
Nifty
Margin Calculation
Settlement is made on daily basis in future
market while,
In Forward market, it is done at the end of
the contract period. ( Why ???)
Task:
Take an index future or stock future of your
interest and calculate profit/loss in last 1
week.
To Speculate
Take a position with the goal of profiting from
expected changes in the contracts price
No position in underlying asset
Marking to Market
Continue
Continue..
The VaR can be specified for an
individual asset, a portfolio of assets or
for an entire firm.
Task:
Take a security (Share of any company).
Collect data of last one week-trading
price and calculate VaR assuming that
you knew this can be the lowest price of
share in one-week.
Basis Risk
Hedge Ratio
The ratio of the size of the position taken in future
contract to the size of the position taken in spot is known
as Hedge Ratio.
Hedge Ratio =
Number of future contract/ Number of spot position .
Rolling Hedge
Continue
If Mr. X wants to buy future of Month
May in India on 1-Feb. (Can he buy??)
The possible strategy he could have:
Buy future of April month
At the expiration of April month contract
buy contract of next1 month
Task
Buy 50 shares of SBI at todays price. Find
beta of SBI. Hedge this asset using NIFTY
Index future.
Buy 50 shares of MARUTI and 50 shares
of SBI. Find beta of SBI and MARUTI.
Calculate beta of the portfolio and hedge
this portfolio using NIFTY index futures.
Continue
One other salient feature of the
interest rate futures is that they have
to be physically settled
Unlike the equity derivatives which are
cash settled in India.
Physical settlement entails actual
delivery of a bond by the seller to the
buyer
Trading Strategy
Continue
At any given time, a maximum of four
contracts can be allowed for trading on
the exchange (Viz., March, June,
September and December contracts).
Settlement
Mark-To-Market
Settlement
Physical settlement:
and
Application of IRF
Asset-liability management
Banks typically have lots of government bonds
and other long term assets (loans given to
corporate) in their portfolio.
while their liabilities are predominantly shortterm (deposits made by individuals range
from 1 to 5 years).
To address this risk (Where is the risk???)
Continue
Continue
2.
Investment
management:
portfolio
Continue
Continue
In a currency pair, first currency is called
base currency and second currency is
called Counter/ term/Quote currency.
Ex: USD-INR = 62.45
The price fluctuation in currency market
is
expressed
as
appreciation/
depreciation
or
strengthening/
weakening of a currency with respect to
other.
Ex: a change of US-INR from 35 to 36
indicates that US dollar has ????
Continue..
Task
From NSE collect last days data of
exchange rate of following:
USD-INR
EUR-INR
GBP-INR
&
JPY-INR
And calculate the following:
1. USD-EUR exchange rate.
2. EUR-GBP exchange rate
3. GBP-JPY exchange rate
Verify your answer with real data of these
exchange rates from other sources and find
reason of deviation, if any.
Continue
Options
Types of Options
Continue..
Profit Diagram of ??
Task
From NSE site identify the periods for
which options are available?
Note strike price corresponding to
each period. Do analysis by taking
volume also into consideration.
Which option is most active option?
Test 1
Q16.
(True/ False).
Option Positions
Two parties on each Option: Buyer &
Seller
Call Option: Buyer as well as Seller
(Writer)
Put Option : Buyer as well as Seller
The writer of an option receives cash
upfront but have potential liabilities.
The profit/ loss of writer is the reverse
of that of buyers.
Continue
Parties in contract:
1.Long Call
&
2. Long Put
&
Short Call
Short Put
Numerical
Other Strategies
One share and a short position in one
call option.
Two shares and a short position in one
call option.
One share and a short position in two
calls.
One share and a short position in four
calls.
Option Pricing
Binomial Model
Assumptions:
Two price points up/down are known with
certainty.
There is no arbitrage opportunity.
No transaction cost.
Task
50
49
50
48
56
45
Strike price =
Rf = 8%, 3 months
Formula
the
the
the
per
per
Solution
Option Revisited
There are two types of options:.
There are four types of option
strategies..
American option can be exercised at any
time before expiration. (True/ False)
Draw profit-loss diagram of :
(i) One long call and one short call
(ii) A share and a short call.
() What is a Binomial option Model?
() What is Black-Scholes Model?
Swap
A
swap
is
an
over-the-counter
agreement between two companies to
exchange cash flows in the future.
The agreement defines the dates when
the cash flows are to be paid and the
way in which they are to be calculated.
Usually the calculation of the cash flows
involves the future value of an interest
rate, an exchange rate.
Example:
Consider a hypothetical 3-year swap initiated on March 5, 2012, between
Microsoft and Intel.
We suppose Microsoft agrees to pay Intel an interest rate of 5% per annum on a
principal of $100 million, and in return Intel agrees to pay Microsoft the 6-month
LIBOR rate on the same principal.
Seller
Continue
Whereas
a
forward
contract
is
equivalent to the exchange of cash
flows on just one future date, swaps
typically lead to cash flow exchanges
on several future dates.
Application of Swap
1. To Transform a Liability:
Suppose that Microsoft has arranged to borrow $100 million
at LIBOR plus 10 basis points.
a. For Microsoft the risk is : ??
How to mitigate this risk ??
. After Microsoft has entered into the swap, it has the following three
sets of cash flows:
1. It pays LIBOR plus 0.1% to its outside lenders.
2. It receives LIBOR under the terms of the swap.
3. It pays 5% under the terms of the swap.
LIBOR+0.1%
Continue
For Intel, the swap could have the effect of transforming a fixed-rate
loan into a floating-rate loan.
Suppose that Intel has a 3-year $100 million loan outstanding on
which it pays 5.2%.
After it has entered into the swap, it has the following three sets of
cash flows:
1. It pays 5.2% to its outside lenders.
2. It pays LIBOR under the terms of the swap.
3. It receives 5% under the terms of the swap.
5.2%
Thus, for Intel, the swap could have the effect of transforming
borrowings at a fixed rate of 5.2% into borrowings at a floating rate
of LIBOR plus 20 basis points.
Continue
2. To Transform an Asset:
Swap Design
financial institution has two separate contracts: one with Intel and the other with
Microsoft.
In most instances, Intel will not even know that the financial institution has entered
into an offsetting swap with Microsoft, and vice versa.
If one of the companies defaults, the financial institution still has to honor its
agreement with the other company. The 3-basis-point spread earned by the
financial institution is partly to compensate it for the risk that one of the two
companies will default on the swap payments.
Continue..
Problem
Swap Revisited
What is a Swap?
How does Swap help to mitigate risk?
Different types of Swaps?
Other
Types
of
Swaps
Currency Swap
Amortizing swap: the principal reduces in a
predetermined way.
Step-up swap: the principal increases in a
predetermined way.
An equity swap : is an agreement to exchange the total
return (dividends and capital gains) realized on an equity
index for either a fixed or a floating rate of interest.
For example, the total return on the S&P 500 in
successive 6-month periods might be exchanged for
LIBOR, with both being applied to the same principal.
Equity swaps can be used by portfolio managers to
convert returns from a fixed or floating investment to the
returns from investing in an equity index, and vice versa.
Credit Rating
Rating agencies, such as Moodys, S&P, and Fitch,
are in the business of providing ratings describing
the creditworthiness of corporate bonds.
The best rating assigned by Moodys is Aaa.
Bonds with this rating are considered to have
almost no chance of defaulting.
The next best rating is Aa. Following that comes
A, Baa, Ba, B, Caa, Ca, and C.
Only bonds with ratings of Baa or above are
considered to be investment grade.
The S&P and Fitch ratings corresponding to
Moodys Aaa, Aa, A, Baa, Ba, B, Caa, Ca, and C
are AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, CCC, CC, and C,
respectively.
Default Rates
Observations:
1.
For bonds with a poor credit rating, the probability of default is often a
Hazard Rates
Hazard Rate is the probability that bond will
default in a particular year on a condition that it
will not default on no earlier year.
The probability of a bond rated Caa or below
defaulting during the third year as 38.682
29.384 = 9.298%.
The probability that the bond will survive until the
end of year 2 is 100 -29.384 =70.616%.
The probability that it will default during the third
year conditional on no earlier default is therefore
0.09298/0.70616 = 13.17%. (This is Hazard
Rate)
Note: This is similar to conditional probability
P(A/B)= Probability of event A, when B has already occurred.
possibility of default
Problem
If a bond yields 200 basis points more than a similar
risk-free bond and that the expected recovery rate
in the event of a default is 40%; find default
probability (Hazard Rate)?
Conclusion:
Exotic Option
Exotic Options are non-standardized options created by
financial engineers to fulfill the gap in the traditional
option instruments.
Traditional Option instruments are standardized and
hence, sometime dont meet the requirements of
participants.
Some of Exotic Options are:
1. Rainbow Options: It is an option written on more than
one underlying asset.
For example: a put option may specify that you have the
option to deliver one from a range of different assets.
Clearly if the exercise price is the same for all assets
specified, and if you decide to exercise your option to
sell, you will choose to deliver that asset with the lowest
current price
Continue
Direct Hedge
A form of derivatives hedge in which the
cash market instrument being hedged is
hedged by an options or futures contract
on the same underlying instrument.
For example, a 91-day U.S. Treasury bill
hedged with a Treasury bill future
Cross Hedge
A form of derivatives hedge in which
the cash market instrument being
hedged is hedged by an options or
futures contract on other underlying
instrument.
For example, a 91-day U.S. Treasury
bill hedged with a 3-Month Stock
future.
Hybrid Securities
SWAP-Options: SWAPTIONs.
I.R. Swap options, or swaptions, are options
on interest rate swaps.
(They give the holder the right to enter into
a certain interest rate swap at a certain time
in the future).
consider a company that knows that in 6
months it will enter into a 5-year floatingrate loan agreement and knows that it will
wish to swap the floating interest payments
for fixed interest payments to convert the
loan into a fixed-rate loan
Continue
Synthetic Instrument
Synthetic financial instruments are artificially
created
instruments
intended
to
meet
requirements not met by existing, conventional
instruments.
They are designed to reducerisk, increase
diversification or offer a higher return.
an asset with the same risks and rewards as the
underlying sharecan be created by the purchase
of acall optionand the simultaneous sale of aput
optionon the same share.
Or
A synthetic floating rate instrument can be
produced by combining a fixed-ratebondand
aninterest rate swap.