GLOBAL WARMING

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

Graphical description of risks and impacts from global warming from
the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Later revisions to this
work suggest significantly increased risks.
INTRODUCTION
The effects of global warming and climate change are of concern both for
the environment and human life. Evidence of observed climate change
includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and
decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.According to the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, "[most] of the observed increase in global
average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in [human greenhouse gas] concentrations". It is predicted
that future climate changes will include further global warming (i.e., an
upward trend in global mean temperature), sea level rise, and a probable
increase in the frequency of some extreme weather events. Ecosystems are
seen as being particularly vulnerable to climate change. Human systems are
seen as being variable in their capacity to adapt to future climate change.To
reduce the risk of large changes in future climate, many countries have
implemented policies designed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse
gases.
 THE CONTENTS
1 Overview
2 Physical impacts
2.1 Effects on weather
2.1.1 Extreme weather
2.1.2 Increased evaporation
2.1.3 Cost of more extreme weather
2.1.4 Local climate change
2.2 Glacier retreat and disappearance
2.3 Oceans
2.3.1 Sea level rise
2.3.2 Temperature rise
2.3.3 Acidification
2.3.4 Shutdown of thermohaline circulation
2.3.5 Oxygen depletion
OVERVIEW


Mean surface temperature change for the


Global mean surface temperature

 period 1999 to 2008 relative to the average
difference from the average for 1961–1990 temperatures from 1940 to 1980


Oceans
The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans
serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much that would otherwise
remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2 have led to
ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans
increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO2. Global warming is
projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects
include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers
and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased
temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes
in ocean circulation.
1.Over the last hundred years or so, the instrumental temperature record has shown a trend in
climate of increased global mean temperature, i.e., global warming. Other observed changes
include Arctic shrinkage, Arctic methane release, releases of terrestrial carbon from permafrost
regions and Arctic methane release in coastal sediments, and sea level rise.Global average
temperature is predicted to increase over this century, with a probable increase in frequency of
some extreme weather events, and changes in rainfall patterns. Moving from global to regional
scales, there is increased uncertainty over how climate will change. The probability of warming
having unforeseen consequences increases with the rate, magnitude, and duration of climate
change. Some of the physical impacts of climate change are irreversible at continental and global
scales.Sea level is expected to rise 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 inches) by the end of the 21st
century. Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all
of the possible contributions of ice sheets. Slowing of the Meridional Overturning Circulation is
very likely to occur this century, but temperatures in the Atlantic and Europe will probably still be
higher due to global warming. For a global warming of 1–4°C (relative to 1990–2000), there is a
moderate chance that partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet would occur over a period
of centuries to millennia. Including the possible contribution of partial deglaciation of the
West Antarctic Ice Sheet, sea level would rise by 4–6 m or more.
2.The impacts on human systems of climate change will probably be distributed unevenly. Some
regions and sectors are expected to experience benefits while others will experience costs. With
greater levels of warming (greater than 2–3°C, relative to 1990 levels), it is likely that benefits will
decline and costs increase.[4] Low-latitude and less-developed areas are probably at the greatest
risk from climate change. With human systems, adaptation potential for climate change impacts
is considerable, although the costs of adaptation are largely unknown and potentially
large.Climate change will likely result in reduced diversity of ecosystems and the extinction of
many species. Adaptation potential for biologicaland geophysical systems is estimated to be
lower than that for human systems.
 PHYSICAL
IMPACTS
EXTREAMS ON
WEATHER
1.Increasing temperature is likely to lead to increasing precipitation but the
effects on storms are less clear.

2 . Extra tropical storms partly depend on the temperature gradient, which is

predicted to weaken in the northern hemisphere as the polar region
warms more than the rest of the hemisphere.[
Extreme weather
Based on future projections of climate
change, the IPCC report makes a
number of predictions. It is predicted
that over most land areas, the
frequency of warm spells or
heat waves will very likely increase. It
is likely that:
1.Increased areas will be affected by
drought
2.There will be increased intense
tropical cyclone activity
3.There will be increased incidences of
extreme high sea level (excluding
tsunamis)
4.
Increased evaporation
Over the course of the 20th century, evaporation rates
have reduced worldwide ; this is thought by many to be
explained by global dimming. As the climate grows warmer
and the causes of global dimming are reduced,
evaporation will increase due to warmer oceans. Because
the world is a closed system this will cause heavier rainfall,
with more erosion. This erosion, in turn, can in vulnerable
tropical areas (especially in Africa) lead to desertification.
On the other hand, in other areas, increased rainfall lead
to growth of forests in dry desert areas.
Scientists have found evidence that increased evaporation
could result in more extreme weather as global warming
progresses. The IPCC Third Annual Report says: "...global
average water vapor concentration and precipitation are
projected to increase during the 21st century. By the
second half of the 21st century, it is likely that precipitation
will have increased over northern mid- to high latitudes
and Antarctica in winter. At low latitudes there are both
regional increases and decreases over land areas. Larger
year to year variations in precipitation are very likely over
most areas where an increase in mean precipitation is
projected."
Cost of more extreme weather

1. As the World Meteorological Organization explains, “recent increase in societal

impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising
concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.”Pielke et
al. (2008) normalized mainland U.S. hurricane damage from 1900–2005 to
2005 values and found no remaining trend of increasing absolute damage.
The 1970s and 1980s were notable because of the extremely low amounts
of damage compared to other decades. The decade 1996–2005 has the
second most damage among the past 11 decades, with only the decade
1926–1935 surpassing its costs. The most damaging single storm is the 
1926 Miami hurricane, with $157 billion of normalized damage.
2. The American Insurance Journal predicted that “catastrophe losses should be
expected to double roughly every 10 years because of increases in
construction costs, increases in the number of structures and changes in
their characteristics.” The Association of British Insurers has stated that
limiting carbon emissions would avoid 80% of the projected additional
annual cost of tropical cyclones by the 2080s. The cost is also increasing
partly because of building in exposed areas such as coasts and floodplains.
The ABI claims that reduction of the vulnerability to some inevitable effects
of climate change, for example through more resilient buildings and
improved flood defences, could also result in considerable cost-savings in
the longterm.

Local climate change
In the northern hemisphere, the southern part of the Arctic region
(home to 4,000,000 people) has experienced a temperature rise
of 1 °C to 3 °C (1.8 °F to 5.4 °F) over the last 50 years.[citationneeded
] Canada, Alaska and Russia are experiencing initial melting of

permafrost. This may disrupt ecosystems and by increasing

bacterial activity in the soil lead to these areas becoming carbon
sources instead of carbon sinks. A study (published in Science) of
changes to eastern Siberia's permafrost suggests that it is
gradually disappearing in the southern regions, leading to the loss
of nearly 11% of Siberia's nearly 11,000 lakes since 1971. At the
same time, western Siberia is at the initial stage where melting
permafrost is creating new lakes, which will eventually start
disappearing as in the east. Furthermore, permafrost melting will
eventually cause
methane release from melting permafrost peat bogs.
Prior to March 2004, no tropical cyclone had been observed in the
South Atlantic Ocean. The first Atlantic cyclone to form south of
the equator hit Brazil on March 28, 2004 with 40 m/s (144 km/h)
winds, although some Brazilian meteorologists deny that it was a
hurricane. Monitoring systems may have to be extended 1,600 km
(1,000 miles) further south. There is no agreement as to whether
this hurricane is linked to climate change,but one climate model
exhibits increased tropical cyclone genesis in the South Atlantic
under global warming by the end of the 21st century.
Glacier retreat and
disappearance
Excluding t he ice caps and ice sheet s of t he Arct ic and
Ant arct ic, t he t ot al surface area of glaciers worldwide
has decreased by 50% since t he end of t he 19t h
cent ury. Current ly glacier ret reat rat es and m ass
balance losses have been increasing in t he Andes,
Alps, Pyrenees, Him alayas, Rocky Mount ains and
Nort h Cascades.

According t o a Reut ers report , t he Him alayan glaciers

t hat are t he sources of Asia's biggest rivers—Ganges,
Indus, Brahm aput ra, Yangt ze, Mekong, Salween and
Yellow—could dim inish as t em perat ures
rise.Approxim at ely 2.4 billion people live in t he
drainage basin of t he Him alayan rivers.India, China,
Pakist an, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanm ar could
experience floods followed by drought s in com ing
decades. In India alone, t he Ganges provides wat er for
drinking and farm ing for m ore t han 500 m illion
people. It has t o be acknowledged, however, t hat
increased seasonal runoff of Him alayan glaciers led t o
increased agricult ural product ion in nort hern India
t hroughout t he 20t h cent ury.

Ret reat of t he Helheim Glacier, Greenland

OCEANS
 The role of the oceans in global warming is a
complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for
carbon dioxide, taking up much that would
otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but
increased levels of CO2 have led to 
ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the
temperature of the oceans increases, they
become less able to absorb excess CO2. Global
warming is projected to have a number of effects
on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea
levels due to thermal expansion and melting of
glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean
surface, leading to increased temperature
stratification. Other possible effects include large-
scale changes in ocean circulation.

 Sea level
rise
1. Wit h increasing average global t em perat ure, t he water in t he oceans expands in
volum e, and addit ional wat er ent ers t hem which had previously been locked up
on land in glaciers and ice sheets . The Greenland and t he Antarctic ice sheets are
m ajor ice m asses, and at least t he form er of w hich m ay suffer irreversible
decline. For m ost glaciers worldwide, an average volum e loss of 60% unt il 2050 is
predict ed. Meanwhile, t he est im at ed t ot al ice m elt ing rat e over Greenland is
239 ± 23 cubic kilom et ers (57 ± 5.5 cu m i) per year, m ost ly from East
Greenland. The Ant arct ic ice sheet , how ever, is expect ed t o grow during t he 21st
cent ury because of increased precipit at ion. [Under the IPCC Special Report on
Emission Scenario (SRES) A1B, by the mid-2090s global sea level will reach 0.22 to 0.44 m
(8.7 to 17 in) above 1990 levels, and is currently rising at about 4 mm (0.16 in) per
year.] Since 1900, the sea level has risen at an average of 1.7 mm (0.067 in) per year ; since
1993, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon indicates a rate of about 3 mm (0.12 in) per
year.
2.
3.The sea level has risen more than 120 metres (390 ft) since the Last Glacial Maximum about
20,000 years ago. The bulk of that occurred before 7000 years ago.Global temperature
declined after the Holocene Climatic Optimum, causing a sea level lowering of 0.7 ± 0.1 m
(28 ± 3.9 in) between 4000 and 2500 years before present.From 3000 years ago to the start
of the 19th century, sea level was almost constant, with only minor fluctuations. However,
the Medieval Warm Period may have caused some sea level rise; evidence has been found
in the Pacific Ocean for a rise to perhaps 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) above present level in 700 BP.
4.
5.In a paper published in 2007, the climatologist James E. Hansen et al. claimed that ice at the
poles does not melt in a gradual and linear fashion, but that another according to the
geological record, the ice sheets can suddenly destabilize when a certain threshold is
exceeded. In this paper Hansen et al. state:
6.Our concern that BAU GHG scenarios would cause large sealevel rise this century (Hansen
2005) differs from estimates of IPCC (2001, 2007), which foresees little or no contribution to
twentyfirst century sealevel rise from Greenland and Antarctica. However, the IPCC analyses
and projections do not well account for the nonlinear physics of wet ice sheet disintegration,
ice streams and eroding ice shelves, nor are they consistent with the palaeoclimate evidence
we have presented for the absence of discernible lag between ice sheet forcing and sealevel
rise.
5.Sea level rise due to the collapse of an ice sheet would be distributed nonuniformly
across the globe. The loss of mass in the region around the ice sheet would decrease
thegravitational potential there, reducing the amount of local sea level rise or even
causing local sea level fall. The loss of the localized mass would also change the
moment of inertia of the Earth, as flow in the Earth's mantle will require 10–15
thousand years to make up the mass deficit. This change in the moment of inertia
results in true polar wander, in which the Earth's rotational axis remains fixed with
respect to the sun, but the rigid sphere of the Earth rotates with respect to it. This
changes the location of the equatorial bulge of the Earth and further affects the geoid,
or global potential field. A 2009 study of the effects of collapse of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet shows the result of both of these effects. Instead of a global 5-meter sea
level rise, western Antarctica would experience approximately 25 centimeters of sea
level fall, while the United States, parts of Canada, and the Indian Ocean, would
experience up to 6.5 meters of sea level rise.
6.
7.A paper published in 2008 by a group of researchers at the University of Wisconsin lead
by Anders Carlson used the deglaciation of North America at 9000 years before
present as an analogue to predict sea level rise of 1.3 meters in the next century[65] [66]
, which is also much higher than the IPCC predictions. However, models of glacial
flow in the smaller present-day ice sheets show that a probable maximum value for
sea level rise in the next century is 80 centimeters, based on limitations on how
quickly ice can flow below the equilibrium line altitude and to the sea.
8.
Acidification
1.Ocean acidification is an effect of rising concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, and is not a
direct consequence of global warming. The oceans soak up much of the CO2 produced by
living organisms, either as dissolved gas, or in the skeletons of tiny marine creatures that fall
to the bottom to become chalk or limestone. Oceans currently absorb about one tonne of
CO2 per person per year. It is estimated that the oceans have absorbed around half of all
CO2 generated by human activities since 1800 (118 ± 19 petagrams of carbon from 1800 to
1994).
2.In water, CO2 becomes a weak carbonic acid, and the increase in the greenhouse gas since
the Industrial Revolution has already lowered the average pH (the laboratory measure of
acidity) of seawater by 0.1 units, to 8.2. Predicted emissions could lower the pH by a further
0.5 by 2100, to a level probably not seen for hundreds of millennia and, critically, at a rate of
change probably 100 times greater than at any time over this period.
3.There are concerns that increasing acidification could have a particularly detrimental effect on
corals (16% of the world's coral reefs have died from bleaching caused by warm water in
1998, which coincidentally was the warmest year ever recorded) and other marine organisms
with calcium carbonate shells.
4.In November 2009 an article in Science by scientists at Canada's
Department of Fisheries and Oceans reported they had found very low levels of the building
blocks for the calcium chloride that forms plankton shells in the Beaufort Sea.
Fiona McLaughlin, one of the DFO authors, asserted that the increasing acidification of the
Arctic Ocean was close to the point it would start dissolving the walls of existing
plankton: "[the] Arctic ecosystem may be risk. In actual fact, they'll dissolve the
shells." Because cold water absorbs CO2 more readily than warmer water the acidification is
more severe in the polar regions. McLaughlin predicted the acidified water would travel to the
North Atlantic within the next ten years.
Shutdown of thermohaline
circulation
There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or
slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localized cooling in the North
Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in that region.This would affect
in particular areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the
North Atlantic drift.
The chances of this near-term collapse of the circulation are unclear; there is
some evidence for the short-term stability of the Gulf Stream and possible
weakening of the North Atlantic drift.[citationneeded ] However, the degree of
weakening, and whether it will be sufficient to shut down the circulation, is
under debate. As yet, no cooling has been found in northern Europe or nearby
seas.[citationneeded ] Lenton et al. found that "simulations clearly pass a THC
tipping point this century".
Oxygen depletion
The amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans may decline, with adverse
consequences for ocean life.