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BING LI
FRANCESCO LUPIS
GEORGIOS MOROS
Foundation Capital
Venture capitalfirm located inSilicon Valley, founded in 1995, with more than $2 billion
AUM
Could Lending Clubs growth continue and justify the $1.55bn valuation?
Agenda
Key risks
Our decision
Market trend
1.4% quarterly growth rate
$1100B
$
846
B
Prosper
Others
3172
1828
718
153
2012
357
2013e
Market participants
619.48
2014e
Sources: federal reserve Economic Research & Data and Lending Club, Prosper Data.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/#fn8b
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012: $ 240B
Market participants
Banks/ Financial companies
Online lending platform (Main competitors)
$100K - $250K
Biz2Credit - Marketplaces
Lending Club
850
230
2008
45
36
2010
2012
120
2014e
Sources: https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2013-Small-Business-Lending-Study.pdf
http://www.cnet.com/news/with-rising-revenues-lending-club-ceo-plans-expansion-q-a/
Unsecured
Consumer
Unsecured
Consumer
Lending
Lending
Credit
$846B
Credit
$846B
Club
SBL
$138B
SBLClub
$138B
2012
2015e
Source: Mills, Karen and McCarthy, Brayden, The State of Small Business Lending (July 22,
Source: Mills, Karen and McCarthy, Brayden, The State of Small Business Lending (July 22,
Source: Mills, Karen and McCarthy, Brayden, The State of Small Business Lending (July 22,
Source: Mills, Karen and McCarthy, Brayden, The State of Small Business Lending (July 22,
Source: Mills, Karen and McCarthy, Brayden, The State of Small Business Lending (July 22,
Marketplaces
P2P Platforms
Model
Loans to date
N/A
Main players
Source: Mills, Karen and McCarthy, Brayden, The State of Small Business Lending (July 22,
2014), HBS
An easy to duplicate
website on the internet
More effective algorithms
may easily attract finance
Lenders trust is however
necessary
Lenders bargaining
power MODERATE
Despite an attractive
opportunity to fill a gap in
the market by exploiting
SMEs diminishing access to
credit and Banks falling
customer loyalty
Competitive rivalry
within an industry HIGH
Low product
differentiation among
competitors
Similar sized players
triggers fierce price
competition
Borrowers bargaining
power - LOW
Weaknesses
SWOT
Opportunitie
s
Analysis
Threats
An American jurisdiction can always opt out the interest rate exportation regime
(under Section 525 of DIDA)
Of the 44 jurisdictions that approved P2P lending, only seven states have no
interest rate limitations on consumer loans
Investors can invest and lend capital in P2P platforms only in 26 states
Leadership
Management
BoD
Product offering
Value Proposition
To borrowers:
To investors:
Source: LC Transforming the Banking System, Bain & Company: 2012 NPS Survey
Growth record
707,245
600,000
373,434
400,000
202,934
200,000
100,091
0
1,531,124
Cumulative Originations
Quartrely Origination
Revenue Generation
Rising Loan
Volume
Origination,
Servicing &
Management
fee
Revenue
Cost controlling
Source: Foundation Capital: How Marketplace Lending Will Remake Banking as we Know it, McKinsey
Financials
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
CFO
500
FCF
02/12
CapEx
05/12
08/12
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
Source: LC Annual & Quarterly Statements
12/12
03/13
Valuation
Lending Club Data
2012 S% (QoQ)
30.00%
2013 Q1Sales
$16,251.00
$130,708.42
Comparables (Value in
$000s)
Online marketplaces
connecting supply with
demand
Multiple:
19 April 2013
Facebook
Zillow
LinkedIn
ServiceNow
Workday
Splunk
Group average
Implied Value
Tied to growth
Valuation range
Comparables:
1yr Forward PS
8.195
9.212
7.412
8.650
14.920
11.710
10.02
$1,309,240.87
$1.310Bn
$1.5Bn
Key Risks
Regulation
Our Decision
Appendix
Sensitivity analysis
Appendix
Bibliography
Sensitivity analysis