6.

1 Confidence Intervals for

the Mean (Large Samples)
Statistics
Spring Semester
Mrs. Spitz

Objectives/Assignment

How to find a point estimate and a maximum

error of estimate
How to construct and interpret confidence
intervals for the population mean
How to determine the required minimum
sample size when estimating
Assignment: pp. 259-261 #1-40 all

Estimating Population Parameters

In this chapter, you will learn an important technique

of statistical inferenceto use sample statistics to
estimate the value of an unknown population
parameter. In this particular section, you will learn
how to use sample data to make an estimate of the
population parameter when the sample size is at
least 30 or the standard deviation is known. To
make such an inference, begin by fnding a point
estimate.

DEFINITION

A point estimate is a single value estimate for

a population parameter. The most unbiased
point estimate of the population mean is the
sample mean x .

Ex. 1: Finding a Point Estimate

Market researchers use the number of sentences per advertisement as a

measure of readability for magazine advertisements. The following
represents a random sample of the number of sentences found in 54
advertisements. Find a point estimate of the population mean .

x
671
x

12.4
n
54
So, your point estimate for the mean length of all
magazine advertisements is 12.4 sentences.

You try it: Finding a Point Estimate

Another random sample

of the number of
sentences found in 30
magazine advertisements
is listed below. Use this
sample to find another
point estimate of the
population mean .

Find the sample mean.

Estimate the mean sentence length
of the population.

Number of Sentences
16

14

11

17

12

99

18

13

12

17

11

17

18

20

14

11

12

12

11

18

13

xx 443

xx

14
.
767
nn
30

More about point estimates

In Example 1, the probability that the

population mean is exactly 12.4 is virtually
zero. So, instead of estimating to be exactly
12.4, you can increase your accuracy by
estimating that it lies within an interval. This
is called making an interval estimate.

More about interval estimates

Although you can assume that the point estimate in Example 1 is not equal
to the actual population mean, it is probably close to it. To form an interval
estimate, use the point estimate as the center of the interval, then add and
subtract a margin of error. For instance, if the margin of error is 2.1, then an
interval estimate would be given by 12.4 2.1 or 10.3 < < 14.5.
The point estimate and interval estimate are as follows.

Before finding an interval estimate, you should first

determine how confident you need to be that your interval
contains the population mean .

Study Tip:

In this course, you will usually use 90%, 95%, and

99% levels of confidence. The following z-scores
correspond to these levels of confidence.
Level of Confidence

zc

90%

1.645

95%

1.96

99%

2.575

DEFINITION

The level of confidence, c, is the probability

that the interval estimate contains the
population parameter.

Critical Values

You know from the Central Limit Theorem

that when n 30, the sampling distribution of
sample means is a normal distribution. The
level of confidence, c, is the area under the
standard normal curve between the critical
values, -zc and zc.

Critical Values

You can see from the graph that c is the percent of area under
the normal curve between -zc and zc. The area remaining is 1
c, so the area in each tail is (1 c). For instance, if c =
90%, then 5% of the area lies to the left of -zc = -1.645 and
5% lies to the right of zc = 1.645

Error of Estimate

The distance between the point estimate and the actual

parameter value is called the error of estimate. When
estimating , the error of estimate is the distance

|x|

In most cases, of course, is unknown and x varies from

sample to sample. However, you an calculate a maximum
value for the error if you know the level of confidence and
the sampling distribution.

DEFINITION

Given a level of confidence, the maximum error of estimate

(or error tolerance), E, is the greatest possible distance
between the point estimate and the value of the parameter it is
estimating.

E z c c

When n 30, the sample standard deviation s can be used in

place of .

Ex. 2: Finding the Maximum Error of

Estimate

Use the data in Example 1 and a 95%

confidence interval to find the maximum error
of estimate for the number of sentences in a
magazine advertisement.

Ex. 2: Finding the Maximum Error of

Estimate--Solution

The z-score that corresponds to a 95%

confidence interval is 1.96. This implies that
95% of the area under the curve falls within
1.96 standard deviations of the mean. You
dont know the populations standard deviation
. But because n 30, you can use s in place
of .

Ex. 2: Finding the Maximum Error of

Estimate--Solution
( x x) 2
s
n 1
1333.2
s
5.0
53

Using the values zc =

1.96, s 5.0,andn=54.

E zc
E 1.3

s
5.0
1.96
n
54

You are 95% confident

that the maximum error
of estimate is about 1.3
sentences per magazine
advertisement.

Confidence Intervals for the Population Mean

Using a point estimate and a maximum error

of estimate, you can construct an interval
estimate of a population parameter such as .
This interval estimate is called a confidence
interval.

Ex. 3: Constructing a Confidence

Interval

Construct a 95% confidence interval for the

mean number of sentences in a magazine
advertisement.
Solution: In examples 1 and 2, you found that
x
= 12.4 and E = 1.3. The confidence inteval
is as follows:

Insight:

A larger sample size tends to give you a

narrower confidence intervalfor the same
level of confidence.

Ex. 4: Constructing a Confidence

Interval using Technology

Use a graphing calculator to construct a 99%

confidence interval for the mean number of
sentences in a magazine advertisement, using the
sample in Example 1.
Solution: To use a calculator to solve the problem,
enter the data and find that the sample standard
deviation is s5.0.Then,usetheconfidence
intervalcommandtocalculatetheconfidence
interval(ZIntervalfortheTI83orTI84).The
displayshouldlookliketheoneonthenextslide.

http://calculator.maconstate.edu/confidence_int_z/index.html#

So, a 99% confidence interval for is (10.7, 14.2). With

99% confidence, you can say that the mean number of
sentences is between 10.7 and 14.2.

More about intervals

In Ex. 4, and Try it Yourself 4, the same

sample data was used to construct intervals
with different levels of confidence. Notice
that as the level of confidence increases, the
width of the confidence interval also
increases. In other words, using the same
sample data, the greater the level of
confidence, the wider the interval.

In Ex. 5, notice that if is known, then the

sample size can be less than 30.

A college admissions director wishes to estimate the

mean age of all students currently enrolled. In a
random sample of 20 students, the mean age is found
to be 22.9 years. From past studies, the standard
deviation is known to be 1.5 years. Construct a 90%
confidence interval of the population mean age.

E zc
E .55

s
1.5
1.645
n
20

In Ex. 5, notice that if is known, then the

sample size can be less than 30.

The 90% confidence interval is as follows:

So, with 90% confidence, you can say that the mean age of the
students is between 22.35 and 23.45 years.

Interpreting the results

After constructing a confidence interval, it is important that

you interpret the results correctly. Consider the 90%
confidence interval constructed in ex. 5. Because already
exists, it is either in the interval or not. It is not correct to
say, There is a 90% probability that the actual mean is in the
interval (22.51, 23.29.
The correct way to interpret your confidence interval is,
There is a 90% probability that the confidence interval you
described contains . This means also, of course, that there
is a 10% probability that your confidence interval WILL
NOT contain .

Sample Size

As the level of confidence increases, the confidence

interval widens. As the confidence interval widens,
the precision of the estimate decreases. One way to
improve the precision of an estimate without
decreasing the level of confidence is to increase the
sample size. But how large a sample size is needed
to guarantee a certain level of confidence for a given
maximum error of estimate?

Ex. 6: Determining a Minimum Sample Size

You want to estimate a mean number of sentences in a magazine
advertisement. How many magazine advertisements must be
included in the sample if you want to be 95% confident that the
sample mean is within one sentence of the population mean?

Ex. 6: Determining a Minimum Sample Size

Using c = 0.95, zc = 1.96, s 5.0(fromexample2),andE
=1,youcansolvefortheminimumsamplesize,n.

zcs
n

1.96 5.0

96.04

When necessary, round up to obtain a whole number. So,

you should include at least 97 magazine advertisements in
your sample. (You already have 54, so you need 43 more.)