Emerging Issues in Food Safety

Where will we be in 2020?

February 4, 2010

Serban Teodoresco

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 Serban Teodoresco
President, Preventa

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 Ed Lonergan
President & CEO

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Agenda

Introduction
Objectives
Need
Process
Results
Q&A

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Panel

Bob Gravani John Lamb Dave Edwards

Cornell University The World Bank NSF - CMI

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 Key Team Members

Catherine Francois Consumer Goods Forum

Jessica Wigram Consumer Goods Forum

Charles Seaman Diversey

Mike Thomas NSF-CMI

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Objectives

1 Provide the opportunity and framework to the

largest possible number of experts to share
ideas on emerging issues in Food Safety in 2020

2 Celebrate past achievements (GFSI 10 years) …

perfect opportunity to look into the next 10 years

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The Need

HIGH RISK

HIGH IMPACT

COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT

INDUSTRY AT FULL
CAPACITY
(Avg. industry sectors at 60%-70%)

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The Process

“ Underestimating the future is

”
a time-honored tradition.

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The Process

1 ESTABLISH A FRAMEWORK (KEY DRIVERS)

2 SCENARIO PLANNING

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 The Framework (Key Drivers)

Environment Technology

Industry Food
Regulation
Associations Safety

Political & Socio-Cultural

Economical (consumers)

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The Survey

37 questions

Sent to 3,900 people

9% response rate
(3% -5% as benchmark for non incentivized surveys)

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SURVEY RESULTS

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 Demographics by Industry

Academia – 4% Accreditation Body – 5%

Retailer – 24%
Certification Body– 16%

NGO – 8% Food Service – 4%

Government – 3%

Consultant – 11%

Manufacturer – 25%

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Demographics by Job Position

Other/Not Specified – 9% CEO/Exec Level – 18%

Manager – 41%

Senior Executive – 32%

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 Demographics by Region

Africa/Middle East – 5%

Asia/Australia – 17%

Western Europe – 41%

Eastern Europe –5%

Latin America – 4%

North America – 28%

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SURVEY QUESTION #4
What will be the top 3 Food Safety Issues in 2020?

1. Biological Risks / Microbial Safety

2. Supply Chain

3. Contaminants / Chemical & Physical

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SURVEY QUESTION #5
Where will problems occur?

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SURVEY QUESTION #11
Will food safety become integral to sustainability?

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SURVEY QUESTION #14
Bar codes and RFID will enable food industry to collect extensive data.
Sharing this information will reduce food safety incidents.

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SURVEY QUESTION #15
Will consumers reject nanotechnologies and ask for regulations?

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SURVEY QUESTION #18
Consumers will have full access to regulatory inspections / ratings.

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SURVEY QUESTION #27
How will consumers rank the following:

Question 27:
How will consumers rank the following
1. Food Safety

2. Food Prices

3. Health & Wellness

4. Environment

5. Food Security

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SURVEY QUESTION #28
Resistance to pay premium for organic and fair trade.

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SURVEY QUESTION #29
Food industry should pro-actively address obesity,
nutrition, food security.

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SURVEY QUESTION #32
Intentional incidents will have a bigger impact than unintentional.

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SURVEY QUESTION #34
Availability and access to safe food will be a major political and
economic threat to international security

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SURVEY QUESTION #35
Increased competition for raw materials, supplies and market share
will increase frequency of food fraud.

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Summary

1
Food Safety and Sustainability will merge.

2
Difficult to predict the impact of new technologies before they
are tested in the market place.

3
Food Safety will remain the #1 concern for consumers.

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Panel Perspective

Industry Geographic Job Position

Perspective Perspective Perspective

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 Bob Gravani
Cornell University

Industry Perspective

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 NY Yankees Baseball Hall of Fame

“
catcher Yogi Berra once said:

It’s tough to make predictions,

”
especially about the Future

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In 2020, I think the following three food safety issues will
dominate the activities of the food system
throughout the world

Industry Sector Choice #1 Choice #2 Choice #3

Manufacturers Biological Risk Contaminants Supply Chain

(Chem/Phys)

Retailers Biological Risk Supply Chain Contaminants

(Chem/Phys)

Government Biological Risk Supply Chain GFSI/Standards

NGOs Biological Risk Food Security Contaminants

(Chem/Phys)

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QUESTION #5
In 2020, where do you think food safety problems are MOST likely to occur?

Manufacturers Retailers

Private
Private Food service Homes
Homes 12%
Farms 10% Farms
20%
33% 32%
Retail food
Food service 6%
14%
Food
Food
processing
processing
Retail food 40%
28%
1%
Transportation
4%

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QUESTION #5
In 2020, where do you think food safety problems are MOST likely to occur?

Government NGOs

Food service Private

10% Homes Farms Private
10% 20% Homes
18% Farms
39%
Food service
Retail food 14%
20%
Food
processing Retail food
40% 11% Food
processing
18%

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QUESTION #32
By 2020, bioterrorism (intentional incidents) will have a bigger impact on the
food industry than unintentional food safety incidents.

Manufacturers Disagree Retailers Agree

Agree Strongly
Disagree Strongly
Strongly 3%
Strongly 6%
8%
4%

Agree
Disagree Agree Disagree 30%
36% 29% 40%

Not Sure Not Sure

22% 21%

The poisoner’s
Handbook

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QUESTION #32
By 2020, bio-terrorism (intentional incidents) will have a bigger impact on the
food industry than unintentional food safety incidents.

Government Disagree NGOs Agree

Strongly Strongly
4% 7%

Agree
Disagree Disagree
30%
30% 25%
Agree
32%

Not Sure
Not Sure 32%
40%

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Take Home Messages

1 Build a culture of food safety in your

organization

2 Supply chain management is key;

build a partnership with your
suppliers

3 Harmonization of standards, audits

& auditor competence are essential

4
Strengthen GAPs, GMPs & HACCP

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 John Lamb
The World Bank

Geographic Perspective

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 Global Food Safety Conference Consumer Goods Forum
Washington DC – 4 February 2010

Emerging Issues in Food Safety:

A Geographic Perspective

John E. Lamb, Agribusiness Team Leader,

Agriculture and Rural Development Department
World Bank, Washington, DC
40
 Why might geography matter?
 The nature, incidence and severity of food
safety challenges will be influenced by
shifts in:
 Demographics
 Economic growth
 Innovation
 Industry structure and conduct
 Public policy
 Resource constraints
 Climate change
41
 Demographics
 Population—absolute population as starting
point, then rate of change
 Geographic shifts—rural/urban breakdown,
rate of urbanization
 Ethnic composition--diversity
 Age distribution—youth bulge vs. elderly,
economically active portion

42
 Economic Growth
 Point of departure—size of overall and food
economy
 Rate of growth—per capita GDP, food
consumption
 Structure of growth—goods vs services, role of
agriculture, degree of concentration
 Disposable income—food share of household
budget
 Eating at home vs. away
 Dietary upgrading—bulk vs packaged, starchy
foods vs. proteins and produce, staples to
snacks. shelf stable vs. fresh
43
 Innovation
 Changes in productivity –e.g. high-yielding or
resistant varieties, changes in systems of
production or processing
 New product development
 Value addition
 Transport, handling and distribution technology
 IT advances
 Traceability systems
 Adoption of GAP, GMP, GDP, GLP, HACCP
 Detection methods for pathogens,
adulterants, additives
44
Industry Structure and Conduct
 Degree of concentration
 Procurement practices
 Arms-length sourcing
 Length and complexity of supply chains
 Use of standards, certification, benchmarking
 Interindustry collaboration
 Private-public cooperation

45
 Public Policy
 Prioritization for public investment
 Food safety philosophy
 Balance between technical analysis and
political economy considerations
 Global versus sovereign viewpoint
 Regulatory approach chosen
 Public-private cooperation

46
 Resource Constraints
 Scarcity of productive land
 Soil degradation
 Water scarcity and quality
 Competition for scarce public and donor
resources

47
 Climate Change
 Rise of global mean surface temperature
 Increased frequency and severity of extreme
weather events
 Nature of impacts
 Distribution of impacts
 Degree of resilience
 Adaptation measures

48
What can be said about geography
in the Survey Results?
 There is no consistent pattern of responses
associated with geography, however
 There is an apparent consensus across
regions and countries biological/microbial
hazards are the greatest concern
 And that supply chain considerations such as
traceability and use of GFSI will continue to be
crucial

..this is because…
49
 The nature, incidence and severity of food
safety challenges will be influenced by shifts in:
(1) demographics; (2) economic growth; (3)
innovation; (4) industry structure and conduct;
(5) public policy; (6) resource constraints; and
(7) climate change

50
 These major influencing factors interact with
each other in complex ways, the relative
importance of each one will vary by context,
and they will not respect borders, so it is not
feasible to forecast their relative importance
without a complex modeling exercise, that may
exceed the bounds of available data and
understanding of causal linkages or even
correlations

51
 Dave Edwards
NSF-CMI

Job Position Perspective

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Nanotechnologies are rapidly emerging as the “new” GMO and
raising concerns with consumers. By 2020, consumers will reject
the nanotechnologies and ask for strict regulations.

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Consumer Crisis Prediction Framework
Management Team

Prerequisites Political Media Triggers Consumer Reaction

• Media Triggers • Fright Factors
– Conflict – Affects me
Newsworthy – Blame – Unknown effects
PUSHERS – Cover up – Involuntary
– Human interest – New/novel
Plausibility
– High profile – Inescapable
‗trigger
event‘ organisations or – Manmade
Ubiquitous* personalities – Hidden and
– Signal value (what irreversible
BLOCKERS next?) – Children or
– Visual impact pregnant women
– Links to sex/crime (future generations)

Issue in
technical area. Some media interest Major media attention Scare
Not media

Surveillance
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Source: NSF International
By 2020, in the retail and restaurant sectors, it will be the norm for
consumers to have full access to regulatory inspection reports and
customer ratings.

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Summary

1 48% of CEOs currently believe nanotechnologies will be a

difficult ―sell‖ to consumers… They are right.

2 If the industry believes there are benefits to be had then

address the ―fear factors‖ and be transparent and honest

3 A freedom of information culture (regulatory) may well transfer

to private standards by 2020.. Are you ready for that debate ?

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QUESTIONS & ANSWERS

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