(Z)

“c” S&P 500 (180 min.)

1050
It was another day of congestion for the S&P. What yesterday further reinforced was that we’re not
looking at an impulsive wave down from the highs (certainly not a series of 1-2’s). I’m becoming more
convinced of this. So, this is probably not the Primary 3 down as so many technicians have talked
about. It could be devastating and painful all the same, but this is not an impulsive lower. Not much
has changed technically: 1078 and 1100 remain key resistance points.

(x)

(w)
(c)
-x-
(a) (e)

(d)
(b)?
(y)
-w-
(b)

Key resistance points remain 1078 and 1100

(a)

(c)
-y-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
“c” S&P 500 (180 min.) - Alternative “Triangle?”
1050
The work I did on the Canadian Dollar has opened me up to this sort of scenario: That we actually
concluded the initial wave down at 1071 and we’ve been in a correction ever since. I’m labeling that
[b] correction a triangle for now, but it could also be a “running double,” a complex correction with a large
x-wave in the middle. This would actually be the count that “might” support an impulsive wave down
from the highs. This would be a devastating model for bulls, because the next wave down from here
would be a “duessie.”

[a]

(x)

[c]
(w) [b] (a)
(x) [b]
[b]

[a] [a]

(c)?
[c] [a]
(y) -b- or -x-
(e)?
1071
[c]
(z)
-a- or -w-
(d)?

[c]
(b)
CRASH

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
“c” S&P 500 (180 min.)
1050

The market ran into some troubles at the 61.8% retrace of the last wave down, a level that we had
identified as first resistance. The fact that it reversed at an “exact” 61.8% causes me a little concern--
trading isn’t THAT easy. A “retest” of this level, or the light blue downtrend line, would not be
surprising. This wave model still calls for at least one more leg lower.

Reprinted from 2/10/2010

(x)
(w)
(c) -x-
(a) (e)

(d)

(b)?
(y)
-w-
(b)

Key resistance points remain 1078 and 1100

(a)

(c)?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Canadian Dollar (Daily) -B-
(Y)
(Z)
“c”
“c”

“a”

“a”
(W)
“c”
“b” .9274
(X)

“b”

In recent reports on the Canadian Dollar, I forgot to keep track of the 23.6% retrace. This was a
mistake as the Canadian Dollar found support into an exact 23.6% retracement (4pips off).
(X) Remember the “23.6 Rule”: In a larger move, if the market can hold the 23.6%, then the larger
trend should be assumed in intact.” Holding the 23.6% is a good sign for bulls. Unfortunately,
there are a lot of other signals that suggest a major top is forming. .9274 becomes critical support
“a” now. Bears must break the Can$ below .9274 to make the case for a deeper correction.

“b”

-A-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Canadian Dollar (180 min)
-B-
(b)
The short term count is becoming quite difficult. Read: Confidence is low. This is the model I presented
on 2/4/10, and I think it’s still valid. We may be looking at triangle development from the .9326 lows. It’s
[2] whipping us around as if it is a triangle anyway! If this what is transpiring, we should expect a little more
whipsaw/congestion, followed by a severe leg down.

(a)
[1]
Using classical charting techniques, .9483 looks to be resistance, and level that should
be sold into, keeping in mind the possible head and shoulder bottom forming.

[4]
(w)

[3] -x-
(y) -a-
[5] (b) .9483
(c) -c-?
-w- Left
Head? -e-?
Shoulder?
(x)

(a)
-d-?
.9326
(c)
-y-
a or w -b-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 -B- Canadian Dollar (180 min)

(b)
Last week (on 1/27/10) I was counting the move down from the highs as an “impulsive” five wave down
that was completed. My concern for the count was with the very first leg down. Those concerns ended
[2] up being justified as this move turned out being something different than an “impulse”….

(a)
This pattern has take the shape of a “complex” correction that ended with a “terminal” (c)-
[1] wave. What this means is that we can expect a 60-80% retrace from the recent lows that
could take the $CAD back to .9598.9689. A sideways/triangular congestion from here
would, on the other hand, be extremely BEARISH, because it would be an x-wave.

[4]

(w)
Reprinted from 2/4/2010
[3] -x-
(y)
-a-
[5]
(b)
(c)
-w-
[2]
(x)

I’m bearish this market but cannot have a position at this

[4]
moment. The best trading strategy might be to short in front -b-
of .96 on any rally or sell a break of .9326 (new lows)
(a)
[1]
[3]
[5]
(c)
-y- of a/w

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical
commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The
author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of
what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from
sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy
or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading
involves risk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading:
Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND
RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should
consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity
futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should
understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.