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Introduction to
Quantitative
Analysis
Prepared by Lee Revere and John Large
To accompany
Quantitative
1-1
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Learning Objectives
Students will be able to:
1. Describe the quantitative
analysis (QA) approach.
2. Understand the application of
QA in a real situation.
3. Describe the use of modeling in
QA.
4. Use computers and spreadsheet
models to perform QA.
5. Discuss possible problems in
using quantitative analysis.
6. Perform a break-even analysis.
To accompany
Quantitative
1-2
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Chapter Outline
1.1
1.2
Introduction
What Is Quantitative Analysis
(QA)?
1.3 The QA Approach
1.4 How to Develop a QA Model
1.5 The Role of Computers and
Spreadsheet Models in the QA
Approach
1.6 Possible Problems in the QA
Approach
1.7 Implementation - Not Just the
Final Step
To accompany
Quantitative
1-3
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Introduction
Mathematical tools have been
used for thousands of years.
QA can be applied to a wide
variety of problems.
One must understand the
specific applicability of the
technique, its limitations, and its
assumptions.
To accompany
Quantitative
1-4
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Examples of
Quantitative Analyses
Taco Bell saved over $150 million
using forecasting and scheduling QA
models.
NBC increased revenues by over $200
million by using QA to develop better
sales plans.
Continental Airlines saved over $40
million using QA models to quickly
recover from weather and other
disruptions.
To accompany
Quantitative
1-5
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Overview of
Quantitative Analysis
Quantitative Analysis:
A scientific approach to managerial decision
making whereby raw data are processed and
manipulated resulting in meaningful information.
Raw Data
Quantitative
Analysis
Meaningful
Information
Qualitative Factors:
Information that may be difficult to quantify but
can affect the decision-making process such as
the weather, state, and federal legislation.
To accompany
Quantitative
1-6
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
The QA Approach:
Fig 1.1
Define
the problem
Develop
a model
Acquire
input data
Develop
a solution
Test
the solution
Analyze
the results
Implement
the results
To accompany
Quantitative
1-7
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
To accompany
Quantitative
1-8
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
revenues
between variables.
x+
m
=
sales
To accompany
Quantitative
1-9
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Acquire Data
Model Data:
Accurate input data that may come from a variety
of sources such as company reports, company
documents, interviews, on-site direct measurement,
or statistical sampling.
Garbage
GarbageIn
In
To accompany
Quantitative
1-10
Garbage
GarbageOut
Out
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Develop a Solution
Model Solution:
The best model solution is found by
manipulating the model variables until a
practical and implemental solution is
obtained.
Manipulation can be done by solving
the equation(s), trying various
approaches (trial and error), trying all
possible variables (complete
enumeration), and/or implementing an
algorithm (repeating a series of steps).
To accompany
Quantitative
1-11
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
To accompany
Quantitative
1-12
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
To accompany
Quantitative
1-13
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
To accompany
Quantitative
1-14
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
BUT
Real world models are used in the real
world by real organizations to solve
real problems!
To accompany
Quantitative
1-15
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Possible Pitfalls in
Using Models
Prior to developing and implementing models,
managers should be aware of the potential
pitfalls.
Develop a Model
Fitting the model
Understanding the model
To accompany
Quantitative
1-16
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Possible Pitfalls
(Continued)
Develop a Solution
Complex mathematics
Solutions become quickly outdated
To accompany
Quantitative
1-17
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Bagels R Us QA Model
Example
Assume you are the new owner of Bagels R Us and
you want to develop a mathematical model for your
daily profits and breakeven point. Your fixed
overhead is $100 per day and your variable costs
are 0.50 per bagel (these are GREAT bagels). You
charge $1 per bagel.
1-18
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Bagels R Us QA Model
Breakeven Example
Breakeven point occurs when
Revenue = Expenses
So,
$1Q = $100 + $.5Q
Solve for Q
$1Q - .5Q = 100 => Q = 200
Where, Q = quantity of bagels sold
F = fixed cost per day of operation
V = variable cost/bagel
To accompany
Quantitative
1-19
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Conclusions
Models can help managers:
Gain deeper insight into the
nature of business relationships.
Find better ways to assess values
in such relationships; and
See a way of reducing, or at least
understanding, uncertainty that
surrounds business plans and
actions.
To accompany
Quantitative
1-20
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Conclusions
(continued)
Models:
Are less expensive and disruptive than
experimenting with real world systems,
but may be expensive to develop and test.
Allow What if
if questions to be asked.
Are built for management problems and
encourage input, but may be
misunderstood due to the mathematical
complexity.
Enforce consistency in approach.
Require specific constraints and goals, but
tend to downplay qualitative information.
Help communicate problem solutions to
others, but may oversimplify assumptions
and variables.
To accompany
Quantitative
1-21
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
1-22
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
1-23
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
QM for Windows
To accompany
Quantitative
1-24
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
QM for Windows
To accompany
Quantitative
1-25
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
Excel QM
To accompany
Quantitative
1-26
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
To accompany
Quantitative
1-27
2006 by
Prentice Hall,
To accompany
Quantitative
1-28
2006 by
Prentice Hall,