NATIONAL SCHOOL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Department of International Relations and European Integration

Masters Degree Program: Security and Diplomacy

Theory of International Relations

- World Politics Professor Vasile Secre, Ph.D.

SNSPA
Bucharest, 2010

IV. Power: Power Structure, Power

Politics, Power Cycles

1. How to explain or understand the role of power:

the realist perspective on IR and power

Realism (Political Realism): a school of thought that explains

International Relations (both conflictual & cooperative) in terms of
power
Neorealism: the role and consequences of the international power
structure
A long tradition:
Sun Tzu (the warring states period): advised the rulers of state how to
use power in order to advance their interests & protect their survival
Thucydides: the first systematic study of war ( the Peloponesian War,
431 - 404 B.C.)
Niccolo Machiavelli (about 1500): leadership and the logic of power
Thomas Hobbes (17th century): the state of nature or the state of
war in International Relations

Karl von Clausewitz (19th century): war is a continuation of politics by

other means
Edward Hallet Carr (20th century): the realist critique of the natural
harmony of national interests (The Twenty-Years Crisis, 1919-1939: An
Introduction to the Study of International Relations, 1939)
Hans Morgenthau (after the World War II): international politics is
governed by objective laws based on national interest defined as power.
Other authors: Kenneth Waltz, Raymond Aron, Martin Wight, Hedley Bull,
Henry Kissinger & Zbigniew Brzezinski

Please remember the realist assumptions on how International Relations

work:
a)
the state-centric assumption: states are the most important actors and
the distribution of power in the international system is essential.
b)
the unitary rational-actor assumption: rational pursuit of self-interest
c)
the anarchy assumption: they act in a system of sovereign states,
lacking central government

2. POWER: the central concept in International

Relations; surprisingly difficult to define or measure

Defining power: the ability to influence the behavior of others: to get

another actor to do what it would not otherwise have done (or not to do what it
would have done) (Robert A. Dahl) or
actors are powerful to the extent that they affect others more than others affect
them (Kenneth Waltz), or
Power is the capability to prevail in conflicts, or
Power is the capability to control events (influence probabilities)
All these dimensions should be treated together
These definitions treat power as influence. Power is not influence in itself, but
the capability or potential to influence others.
This potential is based on specific (tangible or intangible) characteristics or
possessions of states: size, territory and population, level of economic
development (GDP); industrial development; military expeditures and armed
forces etc. This is power as capability.
Capability = the differential possession of some characteristics or attributes or
resources. Capabilities are easier to measure. GDP is a useful estimator of
material capabilities.
The use of geography as an element of power = a component of geopolitics

 Power also depends on intangible elements: national will, diplomatic

skill; popular support, domestic mobilization, often through religion,

ideology or nationalism.
International influence is gained by promoting its own values, by being
the one to set agenda, to form rules of behavior, to change images (the
way others see the world or even their own national interests) = soft
power (Joseph S. Nye, Jr.)
As a conclusion: Power is a mix of many ingredients: population,
territory, geography, natural resources, economic development and
industrial capacity, administrative capacity, scientific & technical/logical
base, moral legitimacy, military force, political culture, education, popular
support of government etc.
Power resources = elements that an actor can draw on over the long term
to develop particular capabilities, plans and actions.
Power capabilities = allow actors to exercise influence in the short term
(e.g.. military forces; military-industrial capacity; the quality of states
bureaucracy etc.)

3. Power as a relation / interaction

Power is a relation, existing in a system of interaction, involving two or more

parties, each trying to influence the other more than it is itself influenced = the
exercise of power = power politics
Relative power = the ratio of the power that two states can bring to bear against
each other
Power strategies = plans actors use to develop & deploy power capabilities to
achieve goals (choosing the kinds of capabilities to develop; or to use in situations
etc.) coherent strategies can help a state to make the most of its power
Power distribution (structure) = the most important characteristic of an
international system the asymmetric distribution of power among states in the
world or in one region; most often it refers to the great-power system
The structure of power a pyramid or hierarchy of power in the international
system
Conclusion: The international distribution of power = the system structure
patterns of international behavior

4. Power and polarity

The international distribution of power can be described in terms of polarity

(the member of independent power centers): a multipolar system (5 or 6
centers of power, not grouped into alliances); a bipolar system (2 powers or
great rival alliances); a unipolar system (hegemony)
The power status: Great Powers, Middle Powers, Regional Powers
The Balance of Power: the most reliable brake on the power of one state is
the power of other states; = balancing the power of another state or group of
states in order to maintain stability (recurring wars to adjust power relations)
alliances play a key role
In the Post-Cold War era of US dominance, balance of power theory would
predict closer relations among Russia, China, France and Germany (?)
Hegemony: the holding by one state (the hegemon) of a preponderance of
power in the International Relations system; Great Britain in the 19th century
and the US after the World War II and now

5. Power transition theory: world powers & long cycles

In terms of time, the modern world system has existed for 500 years, first
emerging when certain European states developed a capacity for global options
The global political system = institutions & arrangements for the management of
global problems & relations and a hegemonic structure
entities that dominate the system for a generation or more and whose
influence pervades an entire century = world powers
the history of world politics = a succession of world powers; each period
associated with a world power = one cycle
a series of long cycles of about one hundred years.
The global political system has displayed a recurring or cyclical pattern: since
1494: 5 full systemic cycles the transition into the 6th
Transition: global war or hegemonic war = long lasting, averaging 25 years in
length; a war that changes the international system; a mechanism of selection; a
war fought over succession to world leadership, when a rising power is surpassing
the most powerful state a new hegemonic structure (filling the essential
global needs - public goods - for global governance, order, security, stability,
innovation, trade) (Organski, Modelski, Gilpin, etc.)

NB: Since 1494 there have been 5 full systemic cycles and the global system is now
in a transition phase into the 6th. or the first of a new international system

LONG CYCLES (Systemic)

LONG CYCLE

WORLD POWER

GLOBAL WAR

I 1494 1579

Portugal

II 1580 - 1689

Netherlands

III 1689 - 1792

Britain I

IV 1792 - 1914

Britain II

V 1914 - 1989/91

USA I

Italian & Indian Ocean Wars

(1494 - 1516)
Spanish Wars
(1580 - 1689)
Wars of Louis XIV
(1688-1713)
Wars of Napoleon
(1792 - 1815)
World Wars I & II

VI 1989/91 -

USA II