World Drug Report 2014

Chapter II:
Precursor chemicals
June 2014

Regional distribution of the value added of the global chemical industry, 1990-2010
50%

Distribution of value-added of chemical industry

42%
40%

37%

35%
32%

30%

35%

32%

30%
27%

30%
24%
21%

19%

20%

10%

9%
7%

5%

3% 2%

2%

0%

1990

2010

Source: UNODC estimates based on World Bank, Indicators, August 2013.

1% 1%

1% 1%

Global exports of the chemical industry,

1990-2012

Growth in exports, output and value-added of the

chemical industry (based on constant US$)
10.0%

2,000

8.7%

8.0%

in billion US dollars

Average annual growth in %

1,500

5.8%

6.0%

6.1%

1,000
4.0%
500

3.5%

3.3%

2.4%

2.0%
0
0.0%

in current US dollars

Value added

1990-2010

Output

Exports

2000-2010

Sources: UNODC estimates based on World Bank Indicators, UNIDO Industrial Database and UN COMTRADE (SITC
Rev.3).

Potential manufacture of precursor chemicals (Table I

and Table II), 2010-2012

20 countries
officially reported
manufacture of
Table I precursors to
UNODC over the
2010-2012 period
(8 in Asia, 8 in
Europe and 4 in the
Americas).
77
potential
precursors
producing countries
account for 77% of
the world
population

Sources: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire data

and UN COMTRADE data.

Regional distribution of trade in internationally controlled

precursors
(Table I and Table II), 2010-2012

Source: COMTRADE data.

Global (legal) exports of precursor chemicals in constant

2012 US dollars, 1996-2012
9,000.0

1,800.0

Change:
19968,000.0
in million constant 2012
US dollars
2012:
(all precursors
and TableTable
II precursors)
I precursors:
+35%
7,000.0
6,000.0

Table II precursors: 3
times

1,600.0
1,400.0
1,200.0

5,000.0

1,000.0

4,000.0

800.0

3,000.0

600.0

2,000.0

400.0

1,000.0

200.0

0.0

0.0
19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

All internationally controlled precursors (left axis)

Table I precursors (right axes)
Source: COMTRADE data.

Table II precursors (left axes)

in million constant 2012 US dollars

(Table I precursors)

Global seizures of Table I precursors, 19892012

1,400
1,200
1,000

Seizures in tons
800
600
400
200

Others*

ATS precursors*

Heroin precursor*

Cocaine precursor*

Table I substances

3 years average (smoothed)

*cocaine precursor: potassium permanganate; heroin precursor: acetic anhydride; amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS)
precursors: P-2-P, phenylacetic acid, ephedrine, pseudoephedrine, norephedrine, 3,4-MDP-2-P, safrole, isosafrole, piperonal;
others: lysergic acid; ergometrine, ergotamine, N-Aceylanthranilic acid
*preliminary data for 2012; data may still rise once additional information becomes available.
Source: INCB, 2013 Precursors report, New York 2014 (and previous years).

Effects of precursor control

Seizures and stopped shipments

Seizures of Table I precursors: 12-fold increase 1990-92 and

2010-2012
Stopped precursors shipments even more important than
precursors seizures

Additional measurements of effectiveness:

Interception rate

(15% for diverted potassium permanganate

and acetic anhydride over the 2007-2012 period)

Reduction of drug availability

Seizures of precursor chemicals compared to drug
seizures
Seizures of ecstasy precursors:
18% more than
ecstasy seizures (2007-2012);
Seizures of amphetamines precursors: > 2-fold seizures of
amphetamine and meth-

Reactions of clandestine operators

More sophisticated ways to obtain precursor
chemicals
Creation of specialized groups to obtain the
precursors chemicals
Creation of front companies
Identification of weak links in the control system

(e.g.
countries in Africa or territories such as Taiwan province of China which
are not making use of pre-export notifications (PEN) and are not
participating in the precursors communication incident system (PICS))

Identification of weaknesses at the national level

(diversion from domestic sources)

Use of the Internet

Use of pharmaceutical preparations

ephedrine and pseudoephedrine)

(containing

Conclusions
Potential vulnerabilities of diversion of precursor
chemicals increased over the last two decades
Nonetheless, progress has been made in precursor
control since the 1988 Convention was adopted
Challenges are arising from new strategies adopted by
operators of clandestine laboratories, notably the use of
non-controlled substitute precursors
Some of the instruments (international legal
requirements) already exist:
limited international special surveillance list
diversion of non-scheduled substances for clandestine
manufacture made a criminal offence
pre-export notifications for non-scheduled substances and
pharmaceutical preparations
participation in the PICS, including for non-scheduled substances

THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION

For more information:

http://www.unodc.org/