Transportation

Demand Forecasting

ASSIGNMENT WORK
ABDUL RASHEED
14011D8115
INFRASTRUCTURE
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1. Transportation Planning

Definition
Science & Study
Urban, Regional or National level

2. Transportation Demand Forecasting

4 step process

Transportation Planning
The information needed for decision makers to
choose among alternative strategies for
improving transportation system facilities is
provided
Types of plans
Purpose of plans
1.
2.
3.

Network
Corridor
Project

Plan Duration
1.
Short
2. Long

1.
2.
3.

Implementation/Research
Strategy
Policy Development

Transportation planning is future-oriented

so always there are Uncertainty in predictions

Types of Transportation Plans

Motivator:

Funding
Coordination
Specific Need

Regional / Metropolitan
Area wide
Local
Corridor Plans

Planning Level:
Statewide
State Highway Plan
Sub-Regional
Five Year Plan
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Need for Forecasting

Transportation plans which are of long-range in

scope and involving planning of 20-25 yrs

ahead.
Impacts of facilities or modes of travel Lines on
existing.

Roads
Light rail
Bus service

Geometric design
Pavement design
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 Types of decisions

Time
(when do you go?)
Destination (where do you go?)
Mode
(how do you get there?)
Route choice (what route do you choose?)

Influences

Economic
Social

How it Starts

 This helps in traffic forecast and is carried out

using
The conventional approach to transportation

forecasting is based on what is commonly

know as the 4 STEP MODEL

Four step Model

Trip Generation
Estimates the number of trips from given origins and
destinations (Housing / Employment locations)

Trip Distribution
Determines the destination for each trip from a given
origin

Mode Choice
Determines the mode choice for each trip various
(SOV, HOV, Bus, Rail, Water)
Route Assignment
Determines the specific route for each trip
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Trip Generation
Determines the mathematical relationship between no

of trips produced in a zone and land use and socio

economics characteristics

Assumptions:
Trip-making is a function of land use
Trips are made for specific purposes
Different trip types are made at different times of
the day
Travelers have options available to them
Trips are made to minimize inconvenience
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Trip Distribution
Connects the trip-ends predicted by the trip

generation models between any set of two

zones
Determined origins and destinations through
estimated trip generation models
Most common model in practice is the
"gravity model"

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Trip Assignment
Procedure by which route chosen by a trip maker is

determined
Assigns trips to pass through the network
Inter zonal flows are assigned to selected routes
Most common method

All-or-Nothing assignment(free assignment)

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Models so formulated are calibrated and checked for their

accuracy before they are further utilized for determining
future travel pattern
Transportation forecasting models, with proper accounting
for land use impacts helps in predicting growth pattern for
land use such as industrial, commercial ,recreational and
open spaces ZONING regulations with cost and
availability of land etc should be employed in building such
models
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Future land use activity arrangements and informations

concerning to future income levels and family size cars
ownerships rates employment and other economic activities
This are provided as inputs and formulated for future trip
generation rates
The output from the above stages yields on each(link
of)network and speed and level of service afforded by the
planned facility
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