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Pendahuluan
Nave Models dan Moving Average Methods
Referensi Utama
Methods
Nave Models
Averaging Methods
Nave Model
Simple
Averages
Moving
Averages
Single
Exponential
Smoothing
Trend Effect
Seasonal Effect
Nave Model
Double
Moving
Averages
Double
Exponential
Smoothing
Trend and
Seasonal
Nave Model
Winters Model
Nave Model
Yt 1 Yt
Yt 1 Yt (Yt Yt 1 )
or
Yt
Yt 1 Yt
Yt 1
Yt 1 Y(t 1) s
MINITAB
implementation
MINITAB implementation
(continued)
Nave
1
Nave
2
Nave 3
MINITAB implementation
(continued)
Nave
1
Nave
2
Nave 3
MINITAB implementation
(continued)
Nave
1
Nave
2
Nave 3
Average Methods
1. Simple Averages
obtained by finding the mean for all the relevant
values and
then using this mean to forecast
the next period.
n Y
Yt 1
t 1
for stationary
data
2. Moving Averages
obtained by finding the mean for a specified set of
values
(Yt and
Yt 1 then
using
Yt n 1 ) this mean to
for stationary
forecastMthe
t Ynext
t 1 period.
data
Average Methods
(continued)
M t Yt 1
n
( M t M t 1 M t n 1 )
M t
n
(ii).
at 2M t M t
(i).
(iii).
2
( M t M t )
n 1
(iv).
bt
Yt p at bt p
MINITAB
implementation
MINITAB implementation
(continued)
Moving Averages
Double Moving
Averages
MA or Moving
Averages
DMA or
Double
Moving
Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Methods
Single Exponential Smoothing
data
for stationary
Yt 1 Yt (1 )Yt
Three
parameters
models
SES: MINITAB
implementation
SES dengan
alpha 0,1
SES dengan
alpha 0,6