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8-2
Social/Ethical Question
Should management be equally
concerned about employees,
customers, suppliers, and “the
public,” or just the stockholders?
In an enterprise economy,
management should work for
stockholders subject to constraints
(environmental, fair hiring, etc.) and
competition.
8-3
Types of stock market
transactions
Secondary market
Primary market
Initial public offering market
(“going public”)
8-4
Different approaches for
valuing common stock
Dividend growth model
Corporate value model
Using the multiples of
comparable firms
8-5
Dividend growth model
Value of a stock is the present value of
the future dividends expected to be
generated by the stock.
^ D1 D2 D3 D∞
P0 = + + + ...+ ∞
(1+ ks ) (1+ ks ) (1+ ks )
1 2 3
(1+ ks )
8-6
Constant growth stock
A stock whose dividends are expected
to grow forever at a constant rate, g.
D1 = D0 (1+g)1
D2 = D0 (1+g)2
Dt = D0 (1+g)t
Dt
0.25 PVDt =
(1+ k ) t
P0 = ∑ PVDt
0 Years (t)
8-8
What happens if g > ks?
If g > ks, the constant growth
formula leads to a negative stock
price, which does not make sense.
The constant growth model can
only be used if:
ks > g
g is expected to be constant forever
8-9
If kRF = 7%, kM = 12%, and β = 1.2,
what is the required rate of return
on the firm’s stock?
Use the SML to calculate the
required rate of return (ks):
8-10
If D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%,
find the expected dividend
stream for the next 3 years, and
their PVs.
0 1 2 3
g = 6%
8-11
What is the stock’s market
value?
Using the constant growth model:
D1 $2.12
P0 = =
ks - g 0.13- 0.06
$2.12
=
0.07
= $30.29
8-12
What is the expected market
price of the stock, one year
from now?
D1 will have been paid out already.
So, P1 is the present value (as of
year 1) of D2, D3, D4, etc.
^
D2 $2.247
P1 = =
ks - g 0.13- 0.06
= $32.10
Could also
^
find expected P1 as:
P1 = P0 (1.06)= $32.10
8-13
What is the expected dividend
yield, capital gains yield, and total
return during the first year?
Dividend yield
= D1 / P0 = $2.12 / $30.29 = 7.0%
Capital gains yield
= (P1 – P0) / P0
= ($32.10 - $30.29) / $30.29 = 6.0%
Total return (ks)
= Dividend Yield + Capital Gains Yield
= 7.0% + 6.0% = 13.0%
8-14
What would the expected
price today be, if g = 0?
The dividend stream would be a
perpetuity.
0 1 2 3
ks = 13%
...
2.00 2.00 2.00
^ PMT $2.00
P0 = = = $15.38
k 0.13
8-15
Supernormal growth:
What if g = 30% for 3 years before
achieving long-run growth of 6%?
Can no longer use just the constant
growth model to find stock value.
However, the growth does become
constant after 3 years.
8-16
Valuing common stock with
nonconstant growth
0 k = 13% 1 2 3 4
s
...
g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6%
D0 = 2.00 2.600 3.380 4.394 4.658
2.301
2.647
3.045
4.658
46.114 P 3 = = $66.54
^ 0.13 − 0.06
54.107 = P0
8-17
Find expected dividend and capital
gains yields during the first and
fourth years.
Dividend yield (first year)
= $2.60 / $54.11 = 4.81%
Capital gains yield (first year)
= 13.00% - 4.81% = 8.19%
During nonconstant growth, dividend
yield and capital gains yield are not
constant, and capital gains yield ≠ g.
After t = 3, the stock has constant
growth and dividend yield = 7%, while
capital gains yield = 6%.
8-18
Nonconstant growth:
What if g = 0% for 3 years before
long-run growth of 6%?
0 k = 13% 1 2 3 4
s
...
g = 0% g = 0% g = 0% g = 6%
D0 = 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.12
1.77
1.57
1.39
2.12
20.99 P 3 = = $30.29
^ 0.13 − 0.06
25.72 = P0
8-19
Find expected dividend and capital
gains yields during the first and
fourth years.
Dividend yield (first year)
= $2.00 / $25.72 = 7.78%
Capital gains yield (first year)
= 13.00% - 7.78% = 5.22%
After t = 3, the stock has constant
growth and dividend yield = 7%,
while capital gains yield = 6%.
8-20
If the stock was expected to have
negative growth (g = -6%), would
anyone buy the stock, and what is its
value?
The firm still has earnings and pays
dividends, even though they may be
declining, they still have value.
^ D1 D0 ( 1 + g )
P0 = =
ks - g ks - g
$2.00(0.94) $1.88
= = = $9.89
0.13- (-0.06) 0.19
8-21
Find expected annual dividend
and capital gains yields.
Capital gains yield
= g = -6.00%
Dividend yield
= 13.00% - (-6.00%) = 19.00%
8-25
Given the long-run gFCF = 6%, and
WACC of 10%, use the corporate
value model to find the firm’s
intrinsic value.
0 k = 10% 1 2 3 4
...
g = 6%
-5 10 20 21.20
-4.545
8.264
15.026 21.20
398.197 530 = = TV3
0.10 - 0.06
416.942
8-26
If the firm has $40 million in debt
and has 10 million shares of stock,
what is the firm’s intrinsic value per
share?
MV of equity = MV of firm – MV of debt
= $416.94m - $40m
= $376.94 million
Value per share = MV of equity / # of
shares
= $376.94m / 10m
= $37.69
8-27
Firm multiples method
Analysts often use the following multiples
to value stocks.
P/E
P / CF
P / Sales
EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms,
estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply
this by expected earnings to back out an
estimate of the stock price.
8-28
What is market
equilibrium?
In equilibrium, stock prices are stable
and there is no general tendency for
people to buy versus to sell.
In equilibrium, expected returns must
equal required returns.
^
D1
ks = +g = ks = kRF + (kM − kRF )β
P0
8-29
Market equilibrium
Expected returns are obtained by
estimating dividends and expected
capital gains.
Required returns are obtained by
estimating risk and applying the
CAPM.
8-30
How is market equilibrium
established?
If expected return exceeds
required return …
The current price (P0) is “too low”
and offers a bargain.
Buy orders will be greater than sell
orders.
P0 will be bid up until expected
return equals required return
8-31
Factors that affect stock
price
Required return (ks) could change
Changing inflation could cause kRF to
change
Market risk premium or exposure to
market risk (β) could change
Growth rate (g) could change
Due to economic (market) conditions
Due to firm conditions
8-32
What is the Efficient Market
Hypothesis (EMH)?
Securities are normally in
equilibrium and are “fairly priced.”
Investors cannot “beat the market”
except through good luck or better
information.
Levels of market efficiency
Weak-form efficiency
Semistrong-form efficiency
Strong-form efficiency
8-33
Weak-form efficiency
Can’t profit by looking at past
trends. A recent decline is no
reason to think stocks will go up
(or down) in the future.
Evidence supports weak-form
EMH, but “technical analysis” is
still used.
8-34
Semistrong-form efficiency
All publicly available information
is reflected in stock prices, so it
doesn’t pay to over analyze
annual reports looking for
undervalued stocks.
Largely true, but superior
analysts can still profit by finding
and using new information
8-35
Strong-form efficiency
All information, even inside
information, is embedded in
stock prices.
Not true--insiders can gain by
trading on the basis of insider
information, but that’s illegal.
8-36
Is the stock market
efficient?
Empirical studies have been conducted to test the
three forms of efficiency. Most of which suggest
the stock market was:
Highly efficient in the weak form.
Reasonably efficient in the semistrong form.
Not efficient in the strong form. Insiders could and did
make abnormal (and sometimes illegal) profits.
Behavioral finance – incorporates elements of
cognitive psychology to better understand how
individuals and markets respond to different
situations.
8-37
Preferred stock
Hybrid security
Like bonds, preferred stockholders
receive a fixed dividend that must
be paid before dividends are paid
to common stockholders.
However, companies can omit
preferred dividend payments
without fear of pushing the firm
into bankruptcy.
8-38
If preferred stock with an annual
dividend of $5 sells for $50, what is
the preferred stock’s expected
return?
Vp = D / kp
$50= $5 / kp
kp = $5 / $50
= 0.10 = 10%
8-39