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Food Production

Control:
Quantities

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Importance of
Forecasting Sales
 The first question operating managers
must ask themselves is very simple:
"How many guests will I serve today?" -
"This week?" - "This year?" The answer to
questions such as these are critical, since
these guests will provide the revenue
from which the operator will pay basic
operating expenses. 

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Histories
 Forecasts of future sales are normally
based on your sales history since what has
happened in the past in your operation is
usually the best predictor of what will
happen in the future. 
 A sales forecast predicts the number of
guests you will serve and the revenues they
will generate in a given future time period. 

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Histories
 You can determine your actual sales for a
current time period by using a
computerized system called a point of
sales (POS) system that has been
designed to provide specific sales
information. 
 Remember that a distinction is made in the
hospitality industry between sales
(revenue), and sales volume, which is the
number of units sold.
Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Histories
 Sales may be a blend of cash and
non-cash.
 With accurate sales records, a sales
history can be developed for each
foodservice outlet you operate and
better decisions will be reached with
regard to planning for each unit’s
operation.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Histories
 Sales to date is the cumulative
total of sales reported in the unit.
 Sales history is the systematic
recording of all sales achieved during
a pre-determined time period. Sales
histories can be created to record
revenue, guests served, or both.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Histories
 Guest count is the term used in the hospitality
industry to indicate the number of people you have
served, and is recorded on a regular basis. For
many other foodservice operations, sales are
recorded in terms of sales revenue generated.
 Most POS systems are designed to tell you the
amount of revenue you have generated in a given
time period, the number of guests you have served,
and the average sales per guest.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
 When managers record both revenue and 
guest counts, information needed to compute 
average sales per guest, a term also known as 
check average, is provided.

Total Sales
Number of Guests Served=Average Sales per Guest

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Maintaining Sales Histories 
Sales history may consist of revenue, 
number of guests served, and average 
sales per guest.  You may want to use 
even more detailed information, such as 
the number of a particular menu item 
served, the number of guests served in a 
specific meal or time period, or the 
method of meal delivery (for example, 
drive-through vs. counter sale).

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Histories are likely
to be arranged in one of
1.
three ways:
By operating period, such as one week or
month, so that all sales records for an entire
operating period can be viewed together on
one page, card, or screen
2. By day of the week, so that all sales records
for a given day (Tuesday, for example) for a
period of several weeks can be compared.
3. By entrée item, so that the degree of
popularity of a given item can be seen over
time.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Other Information in Sales
Histories
 One of the most common of these conditions is the
weather. Most foodservice operators find that weather
conditions have a noticeable impact on sales volume. In
many establishments, bad weather has a clearly negative
impact on sales volume.
 Hotels and motels in major metropolitan centers often find
the impact of weather on sales to be the opposite: Bad
weather seems to increase food and beverage sales in
these properties, probably because it discourages guests
from going out to nearby restaurants.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Other Information in Sales
Histories
 Special events can decidedly influence
sales and are often included in sales
histories. The occurrence of a national
holiday on a particular day or the
presence of a particular convention
group in a hotel can affect sales
considerably. So can such varied
conditions as faulty kitchen equipment, a
torn-up street in front of the restaurant,
or a major sale at a nearby store.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Popularity Index
 In addition to keeping records of numbers of
portions sold, many foodservice operators use the
data to determine a popularity index. Popularity
index is defined as the ratio of portion sales for a
given menu item to total portion sales for all menu
items as illustrated in Figure 8.4.
 The popularity index is calculated by dividing
portion sales for a given item by the total portion
sales for all menu items. The index may be
calculated for any time period.
 Popularity index = Portion sales for Item A
Total portion sales

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Forecasting
 A usual first step in forecasting is to
predict total anticipated volume: total
numbers of customers anticipated for
particular days or particular meals.
 To arrive at a figure, one refers to the
sales history to find the total number of
sales recorded on each of a number of
comparable dates in the recent past.
 When great differences are apparent,
reasonable efforts must be made to
determine the reasons for the differences.
Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Forecasting
 When the effects of surrounding conditions have
been evaluated, the next step is to judge the
extent to which these conditions will exist and
affect sales on the particular date or dates for
which one is preparing the forecast.
 This may involve checking a local calendar for
coming events, following weather forecasts, and
looking into various other relevant sources of
information.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Forecasting
 After these steps have been taken, it is
possible to estimate the total business
volume that may be anticipated for the day
or dates for which the forecast is being
prepared.
 For example, if recent history indicated 300 to 315
sales for dinner on Mondays in pleasant weather,
one could reasonably anticipate that the next
Monday would bring approximately the same
volume of business if good weather were
expected. In this case, it would probably be safe to
predict 315 sales.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Sales Forecasting
 The next step is to forecast the anticipated
number of sales of each item on the menu.
This is simpler to do if the menu is identical
to those that have appeared on Mondays in
the past.
 However, it can also be done for changing
menus if the sales history is set up to reflect
the relative popularity of individual items as
compared with a changing variety of other
items appearing on the same menu. This
type of forecasting is more difficult, but by no
means impossible
Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Determining Production
Quantities:
The Production Sheet
 A production sheet is a form on which one lists
the names and quantities of all menu items that
are to be prepared for a given date.
 Production sheets such as that illustrated in Figure
8.5 translate management's portion sales
forecasts into production targets. Production
sheets list menu items and quantities in terms that
the chef and staff can use in production.
 The production sheet is best viewed as a tool used
by management to control production and
eliminate waste

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
The Production Sheet
 Production sheets vary in form and complexity from
one kitchen to another.
 It would be filled out by a manager and forwarded to
the chef as many days in advance as possible.
 Upon receiving it, the chef would have valuable
information about both total anticipated volume for a
particular meal and the number of portion sales
anticipated for each item on the menu.
 With this information in hand, a chef is better equipped
to determine needs for perishable for and for
nonperishable foods.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Monitoring Quantity
Production
and Taking Corrective
production:
Action
There are two purposes for monitoring quantity

1. To determine whether the sales forecast has


been reasonably accurate in predicting both
the total number of customers and their
individual preferences for particular menu
items
2. To judge how closely the chef has followed the
production standards established on the
production sheet.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Void Sheet
 Whenever a portion is returned, an authorized
individual, such as a kitchen supervisor or chef,
records it on the void sheet, indicating the name
of the item, the number of the check on which it
appeared, and the reason for its return. These
entries can be most revealing to an alert manager
or food controller.
 If the number of returns is consistently high and
evenly distributed among job classifications,
investigation may indicate general understaffing.
This finding may suggest a need for additional
personnel to improve customer service.

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Void Sheet
 There are other important uses of the void sheet as
well, particularly when efforts are being made to
control portions by a certain method such as control of
preportioned entrées.
 If all returned portions must be recorded on the void
sheet and attested to by a member of the
management team, it is more difficult for kitchen
personnel to be careless with food.
 The recording of returned portions makes possible the
reconciliation of kitchen records of portions produced
and records of portions sold

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
 It is important to note that sales histories, 
regardless of how well they have been 
developed and maintained, are not sufficient 
alone to accurately predict future sales.  
 Your knowledge of potential price changes, 
new competitors, facility renovations, and 
improved selling programs are just a few of 
the many factors that you must consider when 
predicting future sales.  

Copyright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved