Financial Distress &

Bankruptcy
Dr. Kumar Bijoy
Financial Consultant
kumarcfa@yahoo.com
09810452266

Sick Industrial Company

A firm is said to be bankrupt if it is unable
to meet its current obligations to the
creditors.
The Sick Industrial Companies (Special
Provisions) Act, 1985 or SICA defines a
sick industry as an industrial company
(being a company registered for not less
than five years) which has at the end of
any financial year accumulated losses
equal to or exceeding its net worth.

Weak UnitNon SSI

A non-SSI unit is Weak if its
accumulation of losses as at the end
of any accounting year resulted in
the erosion of fifty percent or more of
its peak net worth in the immediately
preceding four accounting years.

SickSSI unit
Sick SSI unit (as per RBI): when any
of its borrowed account has become
a doubtful advance i.e. principal or
interest in respect of any of its
borrowed account has remained
overdue for periods exceeding two
and half years and there is erosion in
net worth due to accumulated cash
losses to the extent of 50% or more
of its peak net worth during the

 In case of any tiny/decentralized

sector units, if requisite financial
data is not available, a unit may be
considered
as
sick
if
the
loan/advance in which any amount to
be received has remained past due
for one year or more.

Business Failure
Causes of Business Failure:
Economic factor (37.1%)
Industry weakness, poor location etc

Financial factor (47.3%)

Over leveraging, insufficient capital

Neglect, disorder and fraud (14.0%)

Other factors (1.6%)
Source: Dun & Bradstreet Inc. Business failure
record

BankruptcyFactors
External factors
Market recession
Change in Govt policies
Increased competition
Prolonged Power supply or fuel supply cuts
Prolonged scarcity of RM and Labor
Changes in consumer buying pattern
Shrinking demand
Inadequate funds
Natural calamities

 Internal factors
Poor planning
Mismanagement
Fraudulent practices and
misappropriation of funds by the
management
Labor unrest
Technological obsolescence
Disputes among promoters

Causes of bankruptcyRBI
study
Cause

percentage

Mismanagement

52

Faulty initial planning 14

Labor problem

Market recession

23

Others

9
100

Symptoms of Bankruptcy
Production:
Low capacity utilization
High operating cost
Failure of production lines
Accumulation of finished goods

Sales and marketing:

Decline in sales
Loss of distribution to competitors

 Finance:
Increased borrowing at exorbitant rates
Increased borrowing against assets
Delay in payables like salaries, interest
etc
Default at term loans
persistent cash losses

 Others:
A declining trend in market price per
share
Rapid turnover of key personal
Frequent changes in accounting policies
Frequent changes in accounting years
for undeclared reasons

Prediction of bankruptcy
A study of financial ratios for 5 years
(before sickness) are useful in predicting
the failure of a firm
Models used for predictions are:
Beaver Model
Wilcox Model
Blum Marcs Failing Company Model
Altmans Z score Model
Argenti Score Board
L C Gupta Model

Beaver Model
First to make a conscious effort to use
financial ratios as predictors of failure.
Defined failure as inability to pay its
financial obligation as they mature
Used 30 ratios classified under 6 categories
The ratio of cash flow to total debt was
found to be the best single predictor of
failure.
The study further revealed that financial
ratios are useful in prediction of failure of at
least five years prior to event.

Wilcox Model
Net liquidation value (NLV) of the
firm is the best indicator of its
financial health.
NLV is the difference between
liquidation value of firms asset and
liabilities.
Liquidation value is the market value
of the assets and liabilities if
liquidated at that point of study

Blum Marcs Failing Company Model

Predicts the financial health of a firm
using 12 ratios divided into 3 groups:
Liquidity ratios
Profitability ratios
Variability ratios
It tried to accurately predict failure and
draw a distinction between bankrupt and
non-bankrupt firms

Altmans Z score Model

Based on the fact that various ratios
when used in combinations, can have
better predictive ability than when
used individually.
22 ratios considered in various
combinations.
Used multiple discriminant analysis
(MDA) to distinguish between
bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms.

 Out of these 22 ratios, a final set of 5

ratios were selected as they were
found to be better predictors of
failure.
Weights were given to these ratios
on the basis of their significance to
predict health of the firm.
Z-score developed on the basis of
these ratios is: Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 +
3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 1.0X5

Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4

+ 1.0X5

Z = discriminant score
X1= working capital/Total Assets
X2= Retained Earnings/Total Assets
X3= EBIT/Total Assets
X4= MV of equity/BV of debt
X5= Sales /Total Assets
Z Score

Classification

<1.81

Bankrupt firm

1.81 2.99

Area of ignorance

>2.99

Healthy firm

Argenti Score Board

J. Argenti in his article Company Failure
Long Range prediction is Not Enough
developed a score board for evaluating
the health of the firm.
The model is based on the numerical
assessment of the firms weaknesses.
The weaknesses are classified as:
Defects
Mistakes
Symptoms

Defects: in management score

8 The CEO is an autocrat
4 He is also the chairman
2 Passive board an autocrat will see to that
2 Unbalanced board too many engineers or too many
finance types
2 Weak finance director
1 Poor management depth
15 Poor response to change, old fashioned product,
obsolete factory, old directors, out-of-date marketing
3 No budgets or budgetary controls
3 No cash flow plans
3 No costing system
43 total: pass should be less than 10

Mistakes
15: High leverage, firm could get into
trouble
15: Overtrading, Co. expanding faster
than its funding, Capital base too small
15: Big project gone wrong
45 total: Pass should be less than
15

Symptoms
4: financial signs such as Z-score appear near
failure
4: Creative accounting, CEO is the first to see sign
of failure and in an attempt to hide it from creditors
and the banks and accounts are glossed over by
overvaluing stocks, lower depreciation etc.
4: Non financial signs such as untidy offices,
frozen salaries, low morale, high staff turnover,
rumors
12: total score
100: Grand total Pass should be less than 25

L C Gupta Model
First Indian Model proposed to predict
failure
He used 56 ratios categorized as
profitability ratios and balance sheet
ratios.
The model was found to have a high
degree of accuracy in predicting
sickness for 2-3 years before failure.

Ratios
Profitability
EBDIT/ Net Sales
OCF/Sales
EBDIT/ (Total Assets + Accumulated
Depreciation)
OCF/ TA
EBDIT/ (Interest + 0.25 Debt)

Balance sheet
NW/Total Debt
All O/S Liabilities/Tangible Assets