STATISTIK DASAR

ISI:
DASAR PENYUSUNAN HIPOTESIS
KONSEP DASAR P VALUE
UJI T

Basic Statistics
intuitively considered

Populations and Samples

-an example Population - all I.U. undergraduates
Sample - 100 M342 students
its not a random sample, but lets ignore that
for now.

Parameters and Statistics

Parameter - a characteristic of a population
the average I.U. undergraduate is 20.8 years old

Statistic - a characteristic of a sample

Descriptive Statistics
N
What is your age?
Valid N (listwise)

100
100

Minimum
20.00

Maximum
24.00

Mean
20.7300

Std. Deviation
.86287

the standard deviation of the sample was 0.86

approximately 68% of the sample is between 19.87 and 21.59
for real data, percentage imputations from standard deviations are
usually not too accurate

Sampling Distributions
If we were to administer the Alcohol
Consumption Survey in 50 classes, we
could calculate 50 means for number of
drinks.
The distribution of these 50 means is
normally distributed.
standard deviations are meaningful
the standard deviation of the mean is called
the standard error of the mean

For our class survey Descriptive Statistics

N
Statistic
How many drinks
on average?
Valid N (listwise)

91

Minimum
Statistic

Maximum
Statistic

.00

15.00

Mean
Statistic
Std. Error
6.0879

.36335

Std.
Deviation
Statistic
3.46618

91

68% of the sample means will be between (6.09 - 0.36)

and (6.09 + .36).
(to get the Std. Error of the Mean with SPSS, you need
to make the selection in Options)

 Every statistic has a sampling distribution.

If we calculated a standard deviation for
each sample, that distribution would have
its own mean and standard error.
A standard deviation is a measure of variation,
or heterogeneity. Can you think of how a
merchandising manager for Sears might use a
standard error of a standard deviation?

Hypotheses
Hypotheses make statements about
parameters.
Suppose a Legislator says, In
Bloomington, they have seven or more
drinks when they go out.
This forms our null hypotheses
Ho: > 7.0

To refute the Legislator, which we want to

do, we try to find evidence for the
alternative hypothesis
Ha:

Hypotheses, cont.
Hypotheses cannot prove a population is a
particular way.
Hypotheses can tell us the probability that
our population is not a particular way.
Thus, our null hypotheses are usually stated
in terms of what we would not like to be
true.

Test Statistics
Test Statistics, calculated from a formula,
assess the evidence against a null
hypothesis
choice of a particular test statistic depends
upon the type of hypothesis being tested
to test a mean, SPSS uses a t statistic

x
t
,
sx

df n 1

p - values
a p - value is a probability that answers the
conditional question: If the null hypothesis were
true, what is the probability of observing the
result?
the smaller the p value, the greater the
significance, the stronger the evidence against Ho
the smaller the p value, the smaller the
probability that the result occurred by chance
the magnitude of the test statistic is used to reject
or not reject the null hypothesis
usually, small p values are associated with large
(positive or negative) test statistics.

NOT p
What isnt p?
p is not the probability that the null hypothesis
is true
a statistically significant p-value does not mean
the results are of any practical value

Why should I use a #@$% p-value?

it will prevent you from making false
conclusions for example:
Saying things are different when they are not
Saying things are not different when they are

Common Presentation Mistakes

Concluding that two means are different
when they arent.
Greeks drink more than independents

Concluding that two means are similar

when they arent.
Men and women go out the same amount

Before making a conclusion, ask if its testable!

SPSS and p - values

In SPSS, p - values are called significance
levels and abbreviated Sig.
SPSS usually assumes the hypothesis you
are testing is one of equality, for example,
Ho: = 7.0
a very low, or very high sample mean would
lower the p - value
equality tests are often referred to as two-tail
tests

p-values cont.
In our case, the probability of observing a sample mean as
extreme as 6.09 if the population mean were 7.0 is 0.014 .
One-Sample Statistics
N
How many drinks
on average?

Mean
91

Std. Deviation

Std. Error
Mean

3.46618

.36335

6.0879

One-Sample Test
Test Value = 7.0

t
How many drinks
on average?

-2.510

df
90

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean
Difference

.014

-.91209

95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower
Upper
-1.6340

-.1902

One-tail tests
Our null hypothesis for the legislators
challenge is one tailed - Ho: 7.0
the p - value for a one-tail test, in this case,
is half that of a two tailed test
the probability of obtaining our results if the
legislator is correct is only .007

for I.U.s PR department, this sounds a bit

better

The Importance of Common

Sense
The sample mean is 6.09, the standard error of
the mean is 0.36
Intuitively, what do you think the one-tailed
p - value would be if
Ho: 7.0
Ho: 6.5
Ho: > 6.0
Ho:

p = .007
?
?
?

0.007

0.595

0.130

0.945

Common Sense, cont.

sample mean = 6.09
Two Tail p values
SPSS output

One Tail p values

Calculated by hand

Ho:
Ho:
Ho:
Ho:
Ho:

7.5 .0001
7.0 .0070
5 .1299
6.0 .5953
.9454

Ho:
Ho:
Ho:
Ho:
Ho:

= 7.5
= 7.0
= 6.5
= 6.0
= 5.5

.0002
.0139
.2598
.8094
.1092

The divide in two rule only holds when the sample statistic
does not agree with the null hypothesis. When the sample
statistic does agree with the null hypothesis, divide the
two tail p - value by two and take its complement.
All types of t-tests may be either one or two tailed.

-levels
When testing a hypothesis, some people only
report the p-value.
Other people, compare the p-value to an
-level. This allows them to say yes, the null
hypothesis is rejected or no, the null hypothesis
is not rejected.
if the p-value is less than the -level, reject the
null hypothesis
determining the value of the -level is usually
done by resorting to tradition.

More Common Sense

Dont forget the data!