Transportation Forecasting

What is it?
Transportation Forecasting is used to
estimate the number of travelers or
vehicles that will use a given
transportation facility in the future
The conventional approach to
transportation forecasting is based
on what is commonly know as the four
step model
Norman W. Garrick

The Four Step Model

Trip Generation
Estimates the number of trips from given
origins and destinations

Trip Distribution
Determines the destination for each trip
from a given origin

Mode Choice
Determines the mode choice for each trip

Route Assignment
Determines the specific route for each trip
Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Trip Generation model is used to estimate the number of persontrips that will begin or end in a given traffic analysis zone

1
3
2

5
4
7

The unit of analysis for traffic generation is the TAZ

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Developing and Using the Model

Survey Base Year

Socio-economic, land use
And
Trip making

Estimated
Target year
socio-economic,
land use data

Calibrated
Model
Relating trip making
to socio-economic
and land use data

Predicted
Target year
No. of Trips

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Developing and Using the Model

The trip generation model typically can take the form of

No. of trips = Function (pop, income, auto ownership
rates)
The model is developed and calibrated using BASE year data

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Developing the Model
Trip Generation models are often developed
from travel surveys. These surveys are
used to determine the trip making pattern
for a sampling of house holds in the area.
This trip making pattern is then related to
land use (nominally) and socioeconomic
factors that are considered to affect
travel patterns
Common socioeconomic factors considered
include population, income, and auto

ownership rates

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Trip Purpose
Often separate predictions are mode for different
type of trips since travel behavior depends on trip
purpose
In other words different models must be developed for
each trip type
The category of trip types commonly used include

Work trips
School trips
Shopping trips
Recreational trips

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Example of a Trip Generation Model
One way of presenting the trip generation
model developed from a survey is as a
cross-classification table

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Survey and Model

Survey Base Year

Socio-economic, land use
And
Trip making

Calibrated
Model
Relating trip making
to socio-economic
and land use data

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Cross-classification Model
Total Home-Based-Non-Work Trip Rates
Persons per
Household
Type of
Area

Vehicles per
HH

2,3

5+

High
Density

0.6

2.1

4.6

7.
0

1.5

3.0

5.5

7.
9

2+

1.8

3.4

5.9

8.
3

1.0

2.5

5.0

7.
4

Low
Density

1.9

Norman W. Garrick

3.5

6.0

8.

Trip Generation
Developing and Using the Model

Survey Base Year

Socio-economic, land use
And
Trip making

Estimated
Target year
socio-economic,
land use data

Calibrated
Model
Relating trip making
to socio-economic
and land use data

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Base Year Demographics
Number of Households in Target Year
Persons per
Household
Type of
Area

Vehicles per
HH

2,3

5+

High
Density

100

200

100

100

200

300

200

100

2+

100

200

100

200

50

100

100

100

100

200

100

100

2+

100

100

100

10

Low
Density

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Developing and Using the Model

Survey Base Year

Socio-economic, land use
And
Trip making

Estimated
Target year
socio-economic,
land use data

Calibrated
Model
Relating trip making
to socio-economic
and land use data

Predicted
Target year
No. of Trips

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Base Year Demographics
Number of Trips in Target Year for Each HH
Type
Persons per
Household
Type of
Area

Vehicles per
HH

2,3

5+

High
Density

60

420

460

700

300

900

110
0

790

2+

180

680

590

166
0

250

500

740

Low
Number of Trips =
trip rate*no. of HH = 0.6 * 0
100 = 60
Density

50

Total trip = 13,080

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Planning for the Future and
Uncertainties
In an earlier lecture we talk about the
uncertainties associated with making prediction
for the future and the importance of not treating
predictions as if they are set in stone but rather
as a guide to help in decision making
In considering the trip generation process it is
important to understand some potential sources of
uncertainties

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Sources of Uncertainties in
Predicting Number of Trips
Significant errors can creep into the trip
generation process in another of places
including
The model development
The Prediction of future demographics
The use of the model for predicting the future

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Modeling Land Use is one Major Source
of Uncertainty
The modeling of the different types of land use
and their effect on travel pattern is usually
relatively weak
Land use and transportation changes alter the
relationship between the number of trips and the
socio-economic factors. But the trip generation
process typically assume that this relationship is
constant over the period of the study

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
Demographics and Trip Making Factors
affected by Land Use
The land use pattern may affect

Car ownership rates

Household size and composition
Number of daily trips
Mode of trips
Length of trips

Norman W. Garrick

Trip Generation
What is Predicted?
Trip generation models predict so called TRIP ENDS
for each zone
The trip ends maybe classified as either
ORIGINS and DESTINATIONS (O-D)
or
PRODUCTIONS and ATTRACTIONS
The two sets of terms sound similar but there is a
technical difference
Norman W. Garrick

Origins and Destinations

Residential

1
Non-residential

8
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning to
go to work in Zone 8

Non-residential
Residential

This results in 2 trip ends:

One Origin for Zone 1

One Destination for Zone 8

Total Number of Trip Ends
When that same worker leaves Zone 8 in
the evening to go to home to Zone 1
This results in another 2 trip ends:

One Destination for Zone 1

One Origin for Zone 8

Zone 1: 2 Trip Ends (1 O, 1 D)

Zone 8: 2 Trip Ends (1 O, 1 D)

Norman W. Garrick

Productions and Attractions

Residential

1
Non-residential

8
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning to
go to work in Zone 8

Non-residential
Residential

This results in 2 trip ends:

One Production for Zone 1

One Attraction for Zone 8

Total Number of Trip Ends
When that same worker leaves Zone 8 in
the evening to go to home to Zone 1
This results in another 2 trip ends:

One Production for Zone 1

One Attraction for Zone 8

Zone 1: 2 Trip Ends (2 Productions)

Zone 8: 2 Trip Ends (2 Attractions)

Norman W. Garrick

Origins and Destinations??

Productions and Attractions??

Based on the convention of trip generation models

Origins and Destinations are defined in terms of the direction of the trip
Productions and Attractions are defined by the land use
Residential Land use PRODUCES trip ends
Non-residential land use ATTRACTS trip ends
This is a useful distinction because of how trip generation models are
typically developed

Norman W. Garrick

Modeling Productions and

Attractions
Residential

1
Non-residential

For example, Trip Ends for Zone 1 would be

reported as
1. 1000 Production Trip Ends
2. 500 Attraction Trip Ends
Trip generation models typically model separately, i) residential trip production, ii) nonresidential trip attractions
This approach works for home based trips (HB). But falls apart when we start to consider
non-home based trips (NHB). Special techniques are developed to deal with the
relatively small number of NHB that occurs.
Norman W. Garrick

Trip Rate Analysis Method of Trip

Generation
Trip-Rate Analysis
Trip rate is estimated on characteristics of the trip
generators with in the zone. Production rates are
determined using the characteristics of the residential
land uses and attraction rates using the characteristics of
the nonresidential land uses
Example
The characteristics of the trip generator is given in 1000 SQ. FT.
And the trip generation rate for each generator is given as TRIPS PER 1000 SQ. FT.
For example
Residential: Total 1000 Sq. Ft. = 2744 1000 sq. ft., Trip Gen. Rate = 2.4 trips/1000 sq.ft
TOTAL NO. of TRIP from residential land use = 2744*2.4 = 6586 Trips

This method of trip generation is often used to do site impact studies

Norman W. Garrick