INTRODUCTION

TO
SOCIOLOGY
Lecture 39

IMPLICATIONS
OF
POPULATION
GROWTH

GDP and per Capita income

of Pakistan, 1950-2003
____________________________
1950
2003 Increase
GDP
20*
4018*
200
Per Capita 79^ 492^
6 .
* In billion Rs. ^ In US$

Comparison of Pakistan
with South Korea
Population (in millions)

GDP (per capita in US$)

10700

151

47.7
33
20

Pakistan

79
South Korea

1951

2004

503

82

Pakistan
1951

South Korea
2004

Number of Private Farms by size

Farm size
(acres)

1980
Number
(million)

1990
%

Number
(million)

Under 3 Acres 2.07

50.90

3.25

64.10

3-5

0.92

22.60

0.86

17.00

5-10

0.71

17.40

0.62

12.20

10+

0.37

9.15

0.34

6.80

Total

4.07

100.0

5.07

100.0

Population Projection, 1998-2010

(in millions)

Population Pyramids of Pakistan

Old Age 4.78 million

Old Age 6.46 million

Women in
Reproductive Age
28.8 million

55.54
million

Women in
Reproductive Age
42.36 million

62.79 million

Population Aged 5-14, 1998-2010

(in millions)

Primary Students, 1998-2010

(in millions)

Primary Teachers Required,

1998-2010 (in 000)

Primary Schools Required

1998-2010 (in 000)

Primary Expenditure Required,

1998-2010 (in billions)

Doctors Production &

Management, 1998-2010 (in 000)

Annual Recurrent Health

Expenditure, 1998-2010 (in billions)

Additional GDP needed per yr.

3.0 million people added yearly.
GDP / Capita US$ 652.
Total GDP required (652x3=) $1.956
billion.
Additional $5.868 billion investment
needed to create additional GDP of
1.956 billion to maintain current per
capita.

Hard Facts
Population living below poverty line
49 million
Population with NO access to safe
drinking water 54 million
Population with one room houses
56 million
Population with no sanitation
76 million

Hard Facts (Contd.)

Infant Mortality Rate
(per 1000 live births)

80

Maternal Mortality Rate

350-500
Deliveries at home (%)
76
(per 100,000 live births)

Environment

Forest Cover
At less than 5% of the total

surface area is being reduced by

2.5% - 3.1% per year 2nd highest
deforestation rate in the world.
Land Degradation
38% of the irrigated land is water
logged and 14% saline.

Environment (cont.)

Air Pollution
Suspended particle matter in air

in most urban centers are 6.4

times higher than WHO
guidelines.
Traffic Increase
0.8 million to 4.0 million over last
20 years 500 % increase.

Summary of Implications
Shortage of:

Educational

facilities
Health Services

Housing Units
Food

Living Space
Arable Land
Clean water

Increase in:
Unemployment Over crowding
Land
Katchi abadis
fragmentation
Import of food

Environmental
problems
Congestion
in households

Poverty
Unrest
Crime

Conclusions

Issues related to population need to be

advocated for from the top level of the

government;
The public sector allocations for social sectors
remains very low and needs to be enhanced;
Population needs to be taken up as a core basis
for any future development planning;
Issues related to Gender and adolescents need
to be addressed;
Fighting poverty, illiteracy, ill health and
meeting unmet need are major challenges

INTRODUCTION
TO
SOCIOLOGY
Lecture 39