Probability of A occurring

P(A)

Sum of all possible outcomes

=1

the collection of all

possible outcomes of a
chance experiment

Roll a die

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}

# Of Occurrences of
Event
#Trials
Not rolling a even #

EC={1,3,5}

The long run relative

frequency will approach

the actual probability as
the number of trails
increases
Coins? 2, 10, 20.

any collection of outcomes

from the sample space

Rolling a prime # E= {2,3,5}

Consists of all outcomes

that are not in the event

Not rolling a even #

EC={1,3,5}
P(A) = 1 P(A)

two events have no

outcomes in common
Roll a 2 or a 5
Draw a Black card or a Diamond

two events have outcomes

in common
Draw a Black card or a Spade

the event A or B happening

consists of all outcomes that

are in at least one of the two

events
Draw a Black card or a Diamond

E AB

Draw a Black card or a Diamond

P(B U D) = P(B) + P(D)

the event A and B happening

consists of all outcomes that

are in both events

Draw a Black card and a 7

E AB

P(B S) = P(B)P(S)
Draw a Black card and a 7

E AB

the event A or B happening BUT

WE CANT Double Count!

Draw a Black card or a 7
P(B or 7) = P(B) + P(7) P(B and 7)

Used to display

relationships between events

Helpful in calculating
probabilities

Stat

Cal

Com Sci

Statistics & Computer Science & not Calculus

Stat

Cal
Stat

Cal

Com Sci
Com Sci

(Statistics or Computer Science) and not Calculus

(a) P ( has pierced ears. )

(b) P( is a male or has pierced ears. )
(c)P( is a female or has pierced ears )

Rule 1. Legitimate Values

For any event E,
0 < P(E) < 1
Rule 2. Sample space
If S is the sample space,
P(S) = 1

Rule 3. Complement
For any event E,
P(E) + P(not E) = 1
Or

P(not E) = 1 P(E)

Rule 4. Addition (A or B)
If two events E & F are disjoint,
P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F)
(General) If two events E & F are
not disjoint,
P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F) P(E & F)

Ex 1) A large auto center sells cars made by

many different manufacturers. Three of these
are Honda, Nissan, and Toyota. Suppose that
P(H) = .25, P(N) = .18, P(T) = .14.

Are these disjoint events?

P(H or N or T) =

yes

.25 + .18+ .14 = .57

P(not (H or N or T) =

1 - .57 = .43

Two events are independent if knowing that one will

occur (or has occurred) does not change the

probability that the other occurs
Flip a Coin and Get Heads. Flip a coin again. P(T)

Independent
Draw a 7 from a deck. Draw another card. P(8)

Not independent

Rule 5. Multiplication
If two events A & B are
independent,

P(A & B) P(A) P(B)

General rule:

P(A & B) P(A) P(B | A)

The probability that a student will

receive a state grant is 1/3, while the
probability she will be awarded a federal
grant is .
If whether or not she receives one grant
is not influenced by whether or not she
receives the other, what is the
probability of her receiving both grants?

Suppose a reputed psychic in an

extrasensory perception (ESP)
experiment has called heads or tails
correctly on TEN successive coin flips.
What is the probability that her guessing
would have yielded this perfect score?

Tree Diagrams

Consider flipping a
coin twice.
What is the
probability of
getting two heads?
Sample Space:
HH HT TH TT

Tree Diagrams
Getting Tails Twice

Example: Teens with Online Profiles

The Pew Internet and American Life Project finds that 93% of teenagers (ages
12 to 17) use the Internet, and that 55% of online teens have posted a profile
on a social-networking site.
What percent of teens are online and have posted a profile?

P(online) 0.93
P(profile | online) 0.55
P(online and have profile) P(online) P(profile | online)

(0.93)(0.55)
0.5115
51.15% of teens are online and have
a profile.
posted

Ex. 3) A certain brand of cookies are stale

5% of the time. You randomly pick a
package of two such cookies off the shelf
of a store. What is the probability that
both cookies are stale?
Can you assume they are independent?

P(D & D) .05 .05 .0025

Ex 5) Suppose I will pick two cards from a standard

deck without replacement. What is the probability that
I select two spades?
Are the cards independent? NO

P(A & B) = P(A) P(B|A)

Read probability of B
given that A occurs

P(Spade & Spade) = 1/4 12/51 = 1/17

The probability of getting a spade given
that a spade has already been drawn.

Ex. 6) A certain brand of cookies are stale 5%

of the time. You randomly pick a package of
two such cookies off the shelf of a store.
What is the probability that exactly one
cookie is stale?

P(exactly one) = P(S & SC) or P(SC &

S)
= (.05)(.95) + (.95)
(.05)
= .095

Ex. 7) A certain brand of cookies are

stale 5% of the time. You randomly pick a
package of two such cookies off the shelf
of a store. What is the probability that at
least one cookie is stale?

P(at least one) = P(S & SC) or P(SC & S) or (S &

S)
= (.05)(.95) + (.95)(.05) + (.05)
(.05)
= .0975

Rule 6. At least one

The probability that at
least one outcome
happens is 1 minus the
probability that no
outcomes happen.
P(at least 1) = 1 P(none)

Ex. 7 revisited) A certain brand of

cookies are stale 5% of the time. You
randomly pick a package of two such
cookies off the shelf of a store.
What is the probability that at least
cookie is stale?

P(at least one) = 1 P(SC & SC)

.0975

Ex 8) For a sales promotion the

manufacturer places winning
symbols under the caps of 10% of
all Dr. Pepper bottles. You buy a
six-pack. What is the probability
that you win something?

P(at least one winning symbol) =

1 P(no winning symbols)

1 - .96 = .
4686

Warm UpAllergies
Allergies
No
Allergies
Total

Female
10
13
23

Male

Total
8
9

18
22

17

40

1. What is the probability of not having

allergies?
2. What is the probability of having allergies if
you are a male?
3. Are the events Female and allergies
independent? Justify your answer.

Handedne
ss
Left
Right
Total

Female
3
18
__

Male

Total
1
8
__

1. Are the events female and right handed

independent?

__
__
__

A probability that takes

into account a given

condition
P(A B)
P(B | A)
P(A)
P(and)
P(B | A)
P(given)

What is the probability that a randomly

selected resident who reads USA Today also
reads the New York Times?

P(A B)
P(B | A)
P(A)

P(A B) 0.05
P(A) 0.40

0.05
P(B | A)
0.125
0.40

There is a 12.5% chance

that a randomly selected resident
who reads USA Today also reads the New York Times.

When performing a random simulation

we can use Table D.
Lets say I have a 30% Chance of winning
a class lottery.

American
European
Asian
Total

Stu
107
33
55
195

Staff
105
12
47
164

Total
212
45
102
359

What is the probability that the driver is a student?

195
P (Student )
359

American
European
Asian
Total

Stu
107
33
55
195

Staff
105
12
47
164

Total
212
45
102
359

What is the probability that the driver is staff and

drives an Asian car?
47
P (Staff and Asian )
359

American
European
Asian
Total

Stu
107
33
55
195

Staff
105
12
47
164

Total
212
45
102
359

If the driver is a student, what is the probability

that they drive an American car?
107
P (American |Student )
195

Condition

Whiteboard Challenge

The probability of any outcome of a random

phenomenon is
(a) the precise degree of randomness present in the
phenomenon.
(b) any number as long as it is greater than 0 and less than
1.
(c) either 0 or 1, depending on whether or not the
phenomenon can actually occur or not.
(d) the proportion of times the outcome occurs in a very
long series of repetitions.
(e) none of the above.

A randomly selected student is asked to respond Yes, No, or

Maybe to the question Do you intend to vote in the next
presidential election? The sample space is { Yes, No, Maybe }.
Which of the following represents a legitimate assignment of
probabilities for this sample space?

(a)0.4, 0.4, 0.2

(b) 0.4, 0.6, 0.4
(c) 0.3, 0.3, 0.3

You play tennis regularly with a friend, and from past

experience, you believe that the outcome of each
match is independent. For any given match you have
a probability of 0.6 of winning. The probability that
you win the next two matches is

(a) 0.16.
(b) 0.36.
(c) 0.4.
(d) 0.6.

There are 10 red marbles and 8 green

marbles in a jar. If you take three
marbles from the jar (without
replacement), the probability that they
are all red is:
(a) 0.069
(b) 0.088
(c) 0.147
(d) 0.171
(e) 0.444

Jolor and Mi Sun are applying for summer jobs at a

local restaurant. After interviewing them, the
restaurant owner says, The probability that I hire
Jolor is 0.7, and the probability that I hire Mi Sun is
0.4. The probability that I hire at least one of you is
0.9. What is the probability that both Jolor and Mi
Sun get hired?
(a) 0.1
(b) 0.2
(c) 0.28
(d) 0.3
(e) 1.1

Select a random integer from 100 to 100.

Which of the following pairs of events are
mutually exclusive (disjoint)?
(a) A: the number is odd; B: the number is 5
(b) A: the number is even; B: the number is
greater than 10
(c) A: the number is less than 5; B: the number is
negative.
(d) A: the number is above 50; B: the number is
less than 20.
(e) A: the number is positive; B: the number is
odd.

A recent survey asked 100 randomly selected adult Americans if they

thought that women should be allowed to go into combat situations.
Here are the results, classified by the gender of the subject:
Gender

Yes

Male

32

Female

No
18
42

The probability of a Yes answer, given that the person was Female, is
(a) 0.08
(b) 0.16
(c) 0.20

A recent survey asked 100 randomly selected adult Americans if they

thought that women should be allowed to go into combat situations.
Here are the results, classified by the gender of the subject:

Gender

Yes

Male

32

Female

No
18
42

______________________________________________
The probability that a randomly selected subject in the
study is Male or answered No is:
(a) 0.18
(b) 0.36
(c) 0.68
(d) 0.92

An airline estimates that the probability that a

random call to their reservation phone line
result in a reservation being made is 0.31. This
can be expressed as P(call results in
reservation) = 0.31. Assume each call is
independent of other calls.

Describe what the Law of Large

Numbers says in the context of this
probability.

An airline estimates that the probability that a

random call to their reservation phone line
result in a reservation being made is 0.31. This
can be expressed as P(call results in
reservation) = 0.31. Assume each call is
independent of other calls.

What is the probability that none of the

next four calls results in a reservation?

An airline estimates that the probability that a random call to their

reservation phone line result in a reservation being made is 0.31. This
can be expressed as P(call results in reservation) = 0.31. Assume each
call is independent of other calls.

You want to estimate the probability that exactly one of the

next four calls result in a reservation being made. Describe
the design of a simulation to estimate this probability. Explain
clearly how you will use the partial table of random digits
below to carry out five simulations.

188 87370 88099 89695 87633 76987 85503 26257

51736
189 88296 95670 74932 65317 93848 43988 47597
83044
190 79485 92200 99401 54473 190 34336 82786
05457 60343
191 40830 24979 23333 37619 56227 95941 59494