F.C. Ballesteros, Jr.,Ph.D.

What is a climate model?

Climate modelsusequantitative methodsto

simulate the interactions of

theatmosphere,oceans,land surface, andice.
They are used for a variety of purposes from
study of the dynamics of the climate system to
projections of futureclimate.
Such a model has to answer what happens to

temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed

and direction, clouds, ice and other variables all
around the globe over time

Developing the model:

Spatial
Grids
Divide the earths
atmosphere into a finite
number of boxes (grid
cells).

Assume that each variable

has the same value

throughout the box.

Write a budget for each

each box, defining the

changes within the box,
and the flows between the
boxes.

Express changes in a grid cell at a

given time step

Continuity Equations

Source: Henderson-Sellers: A Climate Modelling Primer

A sampling of equations
For ocean chemistry, air-sea CO2 flux is:
Air-sea CO2 exchange flux= ks(pCO2, ocean
pCO2,atmosphere)
For land biology and chemistry, atmosphere-

land CO2 flux is:

Atmosphere-land CO2 exchange flux =

Photosynthesis Respiration Decomposition=

(GPP RA) -RH

Time is also treated in discrete units.

Solving the equations

solve for the values of the variables described by

these equations over time. This involves

integrating the set of differential equations
7 or more variables described by the same number of

equations that describe change with respect to time.

(T,p, , u, v, w, water, etc.). So we should be able to
solve for the values of the variables through time

However, these equations can not be solved

analytically
need to use numerics: discretization time and
space

Solving the equations

It is worth noting that......

For GCMs, grid cells are typically hundreds of miles across and

often there are thirty vertical layers for the atmosphere.

Many processes happen at smaller scales and must be

approximately included (a.k.a., parameterized), including:

Convection
Cloud Cover
Ice Cover: sea and land (glaciers)
Snow Cover
Rainfall
Emissions of Pollutants
River Runoff into Oceans
Eddy Fluxes
Sharp weather fronts
Gravity Waves
Mountains
Cities (heat islands, emissions, etc)

Shortcomings of the
GCMs
Because our understanding of the various
natural processes included in the atmosphere
is incomplete, current climate models (GCM:
Global Circulation Models) do not accurately
represent the climate system.

Shortcomings of the
GCMs
Some climate models have been adjusted, or
calibrated, to provide a reasonable simulation
of some aspects of recent climate.
calibrating a model to make its output look

more like the real world does not provide a

basis for assuming it will generate realistic
predictions of future climate
Realistic predictions of future climate are
assured only if the climate model is validated
and run with an accurate set of inputs.

Shortcomings of the
GCMs
A model is considered validated if it is
developed using one set of data and its output is
tested using another set of data.
if a climate model was developed using

observations from 1901 to 1950, it would be

validated by testing its predictions against
observations from 1951 to 2000.

At this time, no climate model has been

validated (OKeefe & Kueter, 2004, Marshall

Institute).

Shortcomings of the
GCMs
The inputs required by climate models include
both natural variables (e.g. Changes in solar
radiation) and human variables (e.g.
greenhouse gas and aerosol emission rates).
Note: These inputs are not predictable over

the 100-year and longer periods of interest for

climate model studies.

If prediction is not possible,

what
is
the
alternative?
climate modellers fall back to projecting (not predicting)
climate scenarios.

A climate scenario is the output of a climate model calculation

and, by definition, is no better than the quality of the input
data and model. The IPCC addressed this uncertainty by
using a range of future emission rates and an array of climate
models.

... Consequently .......

using a single set of emission rates in the array of models
produced as large a range in global average temperature in
2100 as using the range of emission rates in a single model.
Obviously, caution is required when dealing with results in the
light of these uncertainties!!

Going back to how models work....

The climate system consists of two inter-

connected sub-systems: the atmosphere and

the oceans.
While the importance of the atmosphere in the
climate system is obvious, it is the oceans that
contain the overwhelming share of the energy in the
system.
Change in the atmosphere can be rapid, but change
in the oceans is slow. Any calculation of future
climate must take this slow change in the oceans
into account.

How models work....

Neither the atmosphere nor the oceans are

homogeneous.
the most complex climate models (e.g. NASAs Goddard

Institute for Space Studies, or the UK Meteorological

Offices Hadley centre), divides the atmosphere into cells
that are about 200 miles square and vary in height from
a few thousand feet close to the surface to several miles
at the top of the troposphere.

How models work....

Conditions within a single cell are assumed uniform.
However, weather and climate can be very different over a
distance of 200 miles, particularly in mountainous or coastal
regions.

Conditions within a single cell are assumed

uniform. However, weather and climate can
be very different over a distance of 200
miles, particularly in mountainous or coastal
regions.

Quezon City

Baguio City

How models work.....

Running a climate model also requires a set of

initial conditions, i.e., the weather conditions

around the globe at a specific time.
climate is a chaotic system - small changes in

initial conditions can result in large changes in

output conditions.

How models work....

The climate model is run, using standard numerical modelling

techniques,

calculating the changes indicated by the models equations over a short

increment of time20 minutes in the most advanced GCMsfor one

cell, then using the output of that cell as inputs for its neighbouring cells.

The process is repeated until the change in each cell around the globe

has been calculated.

In a perfect model, results for the initial cell at the end of the calculation would
be the same as those determined at the start of the calculation. However,
climate models are far from perfect, requiring the whole process to be repeated
and smoothed, again using standard numerical calculation techniques until....

a consistent set of results is determined for the first time step.

The whole process is repeated for the next time step until the model is

run for the desired amount of time.

Shortcomings of GCMs
Need to distinguish between projection and

prediction.

Shortcomings of GCMs
prediction defined as
A probabilistic description or forecast of a future climate

outcome based on observations of past and current

climate conditions and quantitative models of climate
processes (Climate Change Science Program and
Subcommittee on Global Change Research (2003):
Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program. Pg. 197).

Shortcomings of GCMs
While projection is defined as
A description of the response of the climate
system to an assumed level of future radiative
forcing... (Climate Change Science Program
and Subcommittee on Global Change Research
(2003): Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program. Pg. 197).

Shortcomings of GCMs
Climate projections are distinguished from

climate predictions in order to emphasize

that climate projections depend on scenarios
of future socioeconomic, technological, and
policy development that may or may not be
realized.

Projection vs. Prediction

climate modelers are careful to make the

distinction between prediction and projection,

the media and political processes rarely do;
they treat most model outputs as predictions.

Media Misrepresentations of
Climate
Model
Results
The globally averaged surface temperature is
projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8C (2.5 to
10.4F) over the period 1990 to 2100. These
results are for the full range of 35 SRES
scenarios, based on a number of climate models
(IPCC, 3rd Assessment Report).

(SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios)

The IPCC is unwilling to assign probabilities to the
likelihood of occurrence of any of the SRES
scenarios, saying only that all are equally likely or
unlikely to occur.

Media Misrepresentations of
Climate
Model
Results
Media reports typically focused on the upper end
of this range, did not explain that it was based on
climate model projections, or explain the
difference between a projection and a prediction.
By 2100, global warming could raise the
average temperature of the Earth as much as
10 degrees [Fahrenheit] more than the average
temperature in 1990, according to a U.N.sponsored panel of hundreds of scientists (USA
Today (October 26, 2000).

IPCC Third Assessment

Report admits to the
following....

Discrepancies between the vertical profile of temperature change in the

troposphere seen in observations and those predicted models.

Large uncertainties in estimates of internal climate variability (also referred to

as natural climate variability) from models and observations.

Considerable uncertainty in the reconstructions of solar and volcanic forcing

which are based on limited observational data for all but the last two
decades.

Large uncertainties in anthropogenic forcings associated with the effects of

aerosols.

Large differences in the response of different models to the same forcing.

Others typically add uncertainties about the roles of clouds and ocean

currents in the climate system, and the sensitivity of the climate system to
changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, to the IPCCs list.

IPCC Third Assessment

Report admits to the
following....

Discrepancies between the vertical profile of temperature change in the

troposphere seen in observations and those predicted models.

Large uncertainties in estimates of internal climate variability (also referred to

as natural climate variability) from models and observations.

Considerable uncertainty in the reconstructions of solar and volcanic forcing

which are based on limited observational data for all but the last two
decades.

Large uncertainties in anthropogenic forcings associated with the effects of

aerosols.

Large differences in the response of different models to the same forcing.

Others typically add uncertainties about the roles of clouds and ocean

currents in the climate system, and the sensitivity of the climate system to
changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, to the IPCCs list.

A note on IPCCs SRES.

Problem on the treatment of economic growth in the

SRES as pointed out by Ian Castles, former head of

the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and David
Henderson, Westminster Business School, London in
a series of letters to Dr. R. Pachauri, Chair of the
IPCC, and in presentations at IPCC expert meetings.
Use of market exchange rates rather than purchasing power

parity in evaluating national incomes;

Results that indicate that average incomes in Asia could

grow as much as 140 times during the 21st century, rates of

growth that are far greater than ever experienced, even by
the fastest growing economies; and
Rates of growth in developing world emissions and/or income
from 1990 to 2000 which were much larger than actually
experienced.

A note on IPCCs SRES.

Sadly....
....the IPCC went on to use the SRES scenarios in
its Fourth Assessment Report .

As a final note....
We should distinguish between climate and weather.
Weather is what we experience on a day-to-day or
seasonal basis. Todays high temperature or the
amount of rainfall in June are examples of weather.
weather is changeable and unpredictable more than
a few days in advance
Climate is the long-term, typically thirty-year, average

of weather. The average high temperature for this date

or the average rainfall for a wet season is an example
of climate.

Global Warming Potential

Concept was developed to compare the ability

of each GHG to trap heat relative to another

gas
The GWP of a GHG is the ratio of global
warming or radiative forcing from one unit
mass of a GHG to that of one unit of CO2
CH4 traps over 21 times more heat per

molecule than CO2

N2O absorbs 270 times more heat per

molecule than CO2

On a global
basis, biogenic
CH4 is a much
larger source
than abiogenic
CH4 !

Thats all folks

ANY QUESTIONS???