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# Statistics for

6th Edition

Chapter 20
Sampling:
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 20-1

Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be
able to:

## Determine sample size when estimating population

mean, population total, or population proportion

## Steps of a Sampling Study

Step 6: Conclusions?
Step 5: Inferences From
Step 4: Obtaining Information?
Step 3: Sample Selection?
Step 2: Relevant Population?
Step 1: Information Required?

Sampling and
Nonsampling Errors

## A sample statistic is an estimate of an unknown

population parameter
Sample evidence from a population is variable

## Sampling error results from the fact that we only

see a subset of the population when a sample
is selected
sampling error

## It can be measured and interpreted using confidence

intervals, probabilities, etc.

Sampling and
Nonsampling Errors
(continued)

## Nonsampling error results from sources not

related to the sampling procedure used
Examples:

## The population actually sampled is not the relevant

one
Survey subjects may give inaccurate or dishonest
Nonresponse to survey questions

Types of Samples

Probability Sample

## Items in the sample are chosen on the

basis of known probabilities

Nonprobability Sample

## Items included are chosen without

regard to their probability of occurrence

Types of Samples
(continued)

Samples

Probability Samples

Simple
Random

Stratified

Systematic

Cluster

Non-Probability
Samples

Judgement

Convenience

Quota

## Suppose that a sample of n objects is to be selected

from a population of N objects

## A simple random sample procedure is one in which

every possible sample of n objects is equally likely to be
chosen

## Random samples can be obtained from table of random

numbers or computer random number generators

Systematic Sampling

## Divide frame of N individuals into groups of j

individuals: j=N/n

group

## Select every jth individual thereafter

N = 64
n=8
j=8

First Group

Finite Population
Correction Factor

## Suppose sampling is without replacement and

the sample size is large relative to the
population size
Assume the population size is large enough to
apply the central limit theorem
Apply the finite population correction factor
when estimating the population variance
finite population correction factor

Nn
N

## Let a simple random sample of size n be

taken from a population of N members with
mean

## The sample mean is an unbiased estimator of

the population mean

1 n
x xi
n i1

(continued)

## An unbiased estimation procedure for the variance

of the sample mean yields the point estimate
2
s
2x N n
n
N

## Provided the sample size is large, 100(1 - )%

confidence intervals for the population mean are
given by

x z /2 x x z /2 x

## Consider a simple random sample of size

n from a population of size N

## The quantity to be estimated is the

population total N

## An unbiased estimation procedure for the

population total N yields the point
estimate NX

## An unbiased estimator of the variance of the

population total is
2
s
N2 2x N(N n)
n

## Provided the sample size is large, a 100(1 - )%

confidence interval for the population total is

Nx z /2N x N Nx z /2N x

## Confidence Interval for

Population Total: Example
A firm has a population of 1000 accounts and
wishes to estimate the total population value
A sample of 80 accounts is selected with
average balance of \$87.6 and standard
deviation of \$22.3
Find the 95% confidence interval estimate of
the total balance

Example Solution
N 1000, n 80,

x 87.6,

s 22.3

2
2
s
(22.3)
N N(N n)
(1000)(920) 5718835
n
80
2

2
x

N x 5718835 2391.41

## Nx z /2N x (1000)(87. 6) (1.96)(2391.41)

82912.84 N 92287.16
The 95% confidence interval for the population total
balance is \$82,912.52 to \$92,287.16

Estimating the
Population Proportion

## Let p be the sample proportion from n

observations from a simple random sample

## The sample proportion, p , is an unbiased

estimator of the population proportion, P

Estimating the
Population Proportion
(continued)

## An unbiased estimator for the variance of the

population proportion is

(1 p ) (N n)
p

n 1
N
2
p

## Provided the sample size is large, a 100(1 - )%

confidence interval for the population proportion is

p z /2 p P p z /2 p

Stratified Sampling
Overview of stratified sampling:

## Divide population into two or more subgroups (called

strata) according to some common characteristic

Population
Divided
into 4
strata

Sample

## Suppose that a population of N individuals can be

subdivided into K mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive groups, or strata
Stratified random sampling is the selection of
independent simple random samples from each
stratum of the population.
Let the K strata in the population contain N1, N2,. . .,
NK members, so that N1 + N2 + . . . + NK = N
Let the numbers in the samples be n1, n2, . . ., nK.
Then the total number of sample members is
n 1 + n2 + . . . + n K = n

## Estimation of the Population Mean,

Stratified Random Sample

## Let random samples of nj individuals be taken from

strata containing Nj individuals (j = 1, 2, . . ., K)
Let
K
K
Nj N and n j n
j1

j1

## Denote the sample means and variances in the strata

by Xj and sj2 and the overall population mean by

is:
K

1
x st N j x j
N j1

## Estimation of the Population Mean,

Stratified Random Sample
(continued)

mean is

2xst

1
2
N

where

2x j

s2j
nj

2 2
N
j x j

j 1

(N j n j )
Nj

## Provided the sample size is large, a 100(1 - )% confidence

interval for the population mean for stratified random samples is

x st z /2 x st x st z /2 x st

## Estimation of the Population Total,

Stratified Random Sample

## Suppose that random samples of nj individuals from

strata containing Nj individuals (j = 1, 2, . . ., K) are
selected and that the quantity to be estimated is the
population total, N

## An unbiased estimation procedure for the population

total N yields the point estimate
K

Nx st N j x j
j1

## Estimation of the Population Total,

Stratified Random Sample
(continued)

## An unbiased estimation procedure for the variance of

the estimator of the population total yields the point
estimate
K

j 1

## Provided the sample size is large, 100(1 - )%

confidence intervals for the population total for
stratified random samples are obtained from

Nx st z /2N st N Nx st z /2N st

## Estimation of the Population

Proportion, Stratified Random Sample

## Suppose that random samples of nj individuals from

strata containing Nj individuals (j = 1, 2, . . ., K) are
obtained
Let Pj be the population proportion, and p j the
sample proportion, in the jth stratum
If P is the overall population proportion, an unbiased
estimation procedure for P yields
K
1
p st N jp j
N j1

## Estimation of the Population

Proportion, Stratified Random Sample
(continued)

## An unbiased estimation procedure for the

variance of the estimator of the overall population
proportion is

p2 st
where

1
2
N

2 2
N
j p j
j 1

p j (1 p j ) (N j n j )

nj 1
Nj
2
p j

the jth stratum

## Estimation of the Population

Proportion, Stratified Random Sample
(continued)

## Provided the sample size is large, 100(1 - )%

confidence intervals for the population proportion for
stratified random samples are obtained from

p st z /2 p st P p st z /2 p st

Proportional Allocation:
Sample Size

## One way to allocate sampling effort is to make the

proportion of sample members in any stratum the same
as the proportion of population members in the stratum

nj
n

Nj
N

## The sample size for the jth stratum using proportional

allocation is

nj

Nj
N

Optimal Allocation
To estimate an overall population mean or total and if the
population variances in the individual strata are
denoted j2 , the most precise estimators are obtained
with optimal allocation

## The sample size for the jth stratum using optimal

allocation is

nj

N j j

N
i1

Optimal Allocation
(continued)

## To estimate the overall population proportion, estimators

with the smallest possible variance are obtained by
optimal allocation

## The sample size for the jth stratum for population

proportion using optimal allocation is

nj

N j Pj (1 Pj )
K

N
i1

Pi (1 Pi )

## The sample size is directly related to the size

of the variance of the population estimator

## If the researcher sets the allowable size of

the variance in advance, the necessary
sample size can be determined

## Sample Size, Mean,

Simple Random Sampling

## Consider estimating the mean of a population of N

members, which has variance 2
2
If the desired variance, x of the sample mean is
specified, the required sample size to estimate the
population mean through simple random sampling is

N 2
n
(N 1) 2x 2

## Sample Size, Mean,

Simple Random Sampling
(continued)

## Often it is more convenient to specify directly the

desired width of the confidence interval for the
population mean rather than 2x

the mean

## Calculations are simple since, for example, a 95%

confidence interval for the population mean will
extend an approximate amount 1.96 x on each side
of the sample mean, X

## Required Sample Size Example

2000 items are in a population. If = 45,
what sample size is needed to estimate the
mean within 5 with 95% confidence?
N = 2000, 1.96 x = 5 x = 2.551
N 2
(2000)(45)2
n

269.39
2
2
2
2
(N 1) x
(1999)(2.551) (45)

## So the required sample size is n = 270

(Always round up)

## Sample Size, Proportion,

Simple Random Sampling
(continued)

## Consider estimating the proportion P of individuals

in a population of size N who possess a certain
attribute
2
If the desired variance, p , of the sample proportion
is specified, the required sample size to estimate the
population proportion through simple random
sampling is

NP(1 P)
n
(N 1) p2 P(1 P)

## Sample Size, Proportion,

Simple Random Sampling
(continued)

## The largest possible value for this expression occurs

when the value of P is 0.25

nmax

0.25N

(N 1) p2 0.25

## A 95% confidence interval for the population proportion

will extend an approximate amount 1.96 p on each
side of the sample proportion

## Required Sample Size Example

How large a sample would be necessary
to estimate the true proportion of voters
who will vote for proposition A, within 3%,
with 95% confidence, from a population of
3400 voters?

## Required Sample Size Example

(continued)

Solution:
N = 34000
For 95% confidence, use z = 1.96
1.96 p s = .03 p s = .015306
nmax

0.25N
(0.25)(34000)

1035.47
2
2
(N 1) p 0.25 (33999)(.0153) 025
So use n = 1036

## Sample Size, Mean,

Stratified Sampling

## Suppose that a population of N members is subdivided

in K strata containing N1, N2, . . .,NK members

## If the desired variance, x st , of the sample estimator is

specified, the required total sample size, n, can be
found

## Sample Size, Mean,

Stratified Sampling
(continued)

K

2
N

j j
j1

n
N

2
x st

1 K
N j 2j
N j1

N
N

2
x st

N
j1

2
j

1 K
N j 2j
N j1

Cluster Sampling

## Population is divided into several clusters,

each representative of the population

## An alternative is to chose items from selected clusters using

another probability sampling technique

Population
divided into
16 clusters.

Randomly selected
clusters for sample

## A population is subdivided into M clusters and a simple

random sample of m of these clusters is selected and
information is obtained from every member of the
sampled clusters

## Let n1, n2, . . ., nm denote the numbers of members in

the m sampled clusters

## Denote the means of these clusters by x1, x 2 , , x m

Denote the proportions of cluster members possessing
an attribute of interest by P1, P2, . . . , Pm

(continued)

and proportion P

Mean

Proportion
m

xc

n x
i1
m

n
i 1

p c

n p
i1
m

i i

n
i1

(continued)

## Estimates of the variance of these estimators, following from

unbiased estimation procedures, are

Mean

Proportion

Mm
p2 c
Mm n 2

2
n
i (xi x c )

Mm
2xc
Mm n 2

i1

m 1

2
2

n
(P

p
)
i i c

i1

m 1

Where n

n
i 1

(continued)

## Provided the sample size is large, 100(1 - )%

confidence intervals using cluster sampling are
for the population mean

x c z /2 x c x c z /2 x c

## for the population proportion

p c z /2 p c P p c z /2 p c

Two-Phase Sampling

## Sometimes sampling is done in two steps

An initial pilot sample can be done

## Can adjust survey questions if problems are noted

Initial estimates of response rate or population
parameters can be obtained

Non-Probability Samples
Samples

Probability Samples

Simple
Random

Stratified

Systematic

Cluster

Non-Probability
Samples

Judgement

Convenience

Quota

Non-Probability Samples
(continued)

Judgement sample
Quota sample
Convience sample

## These methods may still produce good

estimates of population parameters
But

## Are more subject to bias

No valid way to determine reliability

Chapter Summary

## Simple Random Sampling, Systematic Sampling, Stratified

Random Sampling, Cluster Sampling

## Identified Estimators for the population mean, population

total, and population proportion for different types of
samples

## Determined the required sample size for specified

confidence interval width