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6th Edition

Chapter 20

Sampling:

Additional Topics in Sampling

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 20-1

Chapter Goals

After completing this chapter, you should be

able to:

mean, population total, or population proportion

Step 6: Conclusions?

Step 5: Inferences From

Step 4: Obtaining Information?

Step 3: Sample Selection?

Step 2: Relevant Population?

Step 1: Information Required?

Sampling and

Nonsampling Errors

population parameter

Sample evidence from a population is variable

see a subset of the population when a sample

is selected

Statistical statements can be made about

sampling error

intervals, probabilities, etc.

Sampling and

Nonsampling Errors

(continued)

related to the sampling procedure used

Examples:

one

Survey subjects may give inaccurate or dishonest

answers

Nonresponse to survey questions

Types of Samples

Probability Sample

basis of known probabilities

Nonprobability Sample

regard to their probability of occurrence

Types of Samples

(continued)

Samples

Probability Samples

Simple

Random

Stratified

Systematic

Cluster

Non-Probability

Samples

Judgement

Convenience

Quota

from a population of N objects

every possible sample of n objects is equally likely to be

chosen

numbers or computer random number generators

Systematic Sampling

individuals: j=N/n

group

N = 64

n=8

j=8

First Group

Finite Population

Correction Factor

the sample size is large relative to the

population size

Assume the population size is large enough to

apply the central limit theorem

Apply the finite population correction factor

when estimating the population variance

finite population correction factor

Nn

N

taken from a population of N members with

mean

the population mean

1 n

x xi

n i1

(continued)

of the sample mean yields the point estimate

2

s

2x N n

n

N

confidence intervals for the population mean are

given by

x z /2 x x z /2 x

n from a population of size N

population total N

population total N yields the point

estimate NX

population total is

2

s

N2 2x N(N n)

n

confidence interval for the population total is

Nx z /2N x N Nx z /2N x

Population Total: Example

A firm has a population of 1000 accounts and

wishes to estimate the total population value

A sample of 80 accounts is selected with

average balance of $87.6 and standard

deviation of $22.3

Find the 95% confidence interval estimate of

the total balance

Example Solution

N 1000, n 80,

x 87.6,

s 22.3

2

2

s

(22.3)

N N(N n)

(1000)(920) 5718835

n

80

2

2

x

N x 5718835 2391.41

82912.84 N 92287.16

The 95% confidence interval for the population total

balance is $82,912.52 to $92,287.16

Estimating the

Population Proportion

observations from a simple random sample

estimator of the population proportion, P

Estimating the

Population Proportion

(continued)

population proportion is

(1 p ) (N n)

p

n 1

N

2

p

confidence interval for the population proportion is

p z /2 p P p z /2 p

Stratified Sampling

Overview of stratified sampling:

strata) according to some common characteristic

Population

Divided

into 4

strata

Sample

subdivided into K mutually exclusive and collectively

exhaustive groups, or strata

Stratified random sampling is the selection of

independent simple random samples from each

stratum of the population.

Let the K strata in the population contain N1, N2,. . .,

NK members, so that N1 + N2 + . . . + NK = N

Let the numbers in the samples be n1, n2, . . ., nK.

Then the total number of sample members is

n 1 + n2 + . . . + n K = n

Stratified Random Sample

strata containing Nj individuals (j = 1, 2, . . ., K)

Let

K

K

Nj N and n j n

j1

j1

by Xj and sj2 and the overall population mean by

is:

K

1

x st N j x j

N j1

Stratified Random Sample

(continued)

mean is

2xst

1

2

N

where

2x j

s2j

nj

2 2

N

j x j

j 1

(N j n j )

Nj

interval for the population mean for stratified random samples is

x st z /2 x st x st z /2 x st

Stratified Random Sample

strata containing Nj individuals (j = 1, 2, . . ., K) are

selected and that the quantity to be estimated is the

population total, N

total N yields the point estimate

K

Nx st N j x j

j1

Stratified Random Sample

(continued)

the estimator of the population total yields the point

estimate

K

j 1

confidence intervals for the population total for

stratified random samples are obtained from

Nx st z /2N st N Nx st z /2N st

Proportion, Stratified Random Sample

strata containing Nj individuals (j = 1, 2, . . ., K) are

obtained

Let Pj be the population proportion, and p j the

sample proportion, in the jth stratum

If P is the overall population proportion, an unbiased

estimation procedure for P yields

K

1

p st N jp j

N j1

Proportion, Stratified Random Sample

(continued)

variance of the estimator of the overall population

proportion is

p2 st

where

1

2

N

2 2

N

j p j

j 1

p j (1 p j ) (N j n j )

nj 1

Nj

2

p j

the jth stratum

Proportion, Stratified Random Sample

(continued)

confidence intervals for the population proportion for

stratified random samples are obtained from

p st z /2 p st P p st z /2 p st

Proportional Allocation:

Sample Size

proportion of sample members in any stratum the same

as the proportion of population members in the stratum

nj

n

Nj

N

allocation is

nj

Nj

N

Optimal Allocation

To estimate an overall population mean or total and if the

population variances in the individual strata are

denoted j2 , the most precise estimators are obtained

with optimal allocation

allocation is

nj

N j j

N

i1

Optimal Allocation

(continued)

with the smallest possible variance are obtained by

optimal allocation

proportion using optimal allocation is

nj

N j Pj (1 Pj )

K

N

i1

Pi (1 Pi )

of the variance of the population estimator

the variance in advance, the necessary

sample size can be determined

Simple Random Sampling

members, which has variance 2

2

If the desired variance, x of the sample mean is

specified, the required sample size to estimate the

population mean through simple random sampling is

N 2

n

(N 1) 2x 2

Simple Random Sampling

(continued)

desired width of the confidence interval for the

population mean rather than 2x

the mean

confidence interval for the population mean will

extend an approximate amount 1.96 x on each side

of the sample mean, X

2000 items are in a population. If = 45,

what sample size is needed to estimate the

mean within 5 with 95% confidence?

N = 2000, 1.96 x = 5 x = 2.551

N 2

(2000)(45)2

n

269.39

2

2

2

2

(N 1) x

(1999)(2.551) (45)

(Always round up)

Simple Random Sampling

(continued)

in a population of size N who possess a certain

attribute

2

If the desired variance, p , of the sample proportion

is specified, the required sample size to estimate the

population proportion through simple random

sampling is

NP(1 P)

n

(N 1) p2 P(1 P)

Simple Random Sampling

(continued)

when the value of P is 0.25

nmax

0.25N

(N 1) p2 0.25

will extend an approximate amount 1.96 p on each

side of the sample proportion

How large a sample would be necessary

to estimate the true proportion of voters

who will vote for proposition A, within 3%,

with 95% confidence, from a population of

3400 voters?

(continued)

Solution:

N = 34000

For 95% confidence, use z = 1.96

1.96 p s = .03 p s = .015306

nmax

0.25N

(0.25)(34000)

1035.47

2

2

(N 1) p 0.25 (33999)(.0153) 025

So use n = 1036

Stratified Sampling

in K strata containing N1, N2, . . .,NK members

specified, the required total sample size, n, can be

found

Stratified Sampling

(continued)

K

2

N

j j

j1

n

N

2

x st

1 K

N j 2j

N j1

N

N

2

x st

N

j1

2

j

1 K

N j 2j

N j1

Cluster Sampling

each representative of the population

another probability sampling technique

Population

divided into

16 clusters.

Randomly selected

clusters for sample

random sample of m of these clusters is selected and

information is obtained from every member of the

sampled clusters

the m sampled clusters

Denote the proportions of cluster members possessing

an attribute of interest by P1, P2, . . . , Pm

(continued)

and proportion P

Mean

Proportion

m

xc

n x

i1

m

n

i 1

p c

n p

i1

m

i i

n

i1

(continued)

unbiased estimation procedures, are

Mean

Proportion

Mm

p2 c

Mm n 2

2

n

i (xi x c )

Mm

2xc

Mm n 2

i1

m 1

2

2

n

(P

p

)

i i c

i1

m 1

Where n

n

i 1

(continued)

confidence intervals using cluster sampling are

for the population mean

x c z /2 x c x c z /2 x c

p c z /2 p c P p c z /2 p c

Two-Phase Sampling

An initial pilot sample can be done

Disadvantage:

Advantages:

Additional questions may be identified

Initial estimates of response rate or population

parameters can be obtained

Non-Probability Samples

Samples

Probability Samples

Simple

Random

Stratified

Systematic

Cluster

Non-Probability

Samples

Judgement

Convenience

Quota

Non-Probability Samples

(continued)

Judgement sample

Quota sample

Convience sample

estimates of population parameters

But

No valid way to determine reliability

Chapter Summary

Random Sampling, Cluster Sampling

total, and population proportion for different types of

samples

confidence interval width

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