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  • Computer Modeling of Anomalous Phytoplankton Blooms Off The California Coast

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    jpeterson1
    173 vizualizări22 pagini
    James Sherman, Gonzaga University - Abstract: Over the last 20 years, aberrant algal blooms have been increasing in frequency and scope in coastal waters, likely as a result of anthropogenic influences (e.g. global climate change and nutrient loading). Modeling offers promise in enhancing our ability to project and ultimately mitigate these blooms by improving our understanding of their underlying causes. Here I model Coccolithophore and Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the Monterey Bay and Santa Barbara regions. These models are based on actual bloom events that occurred in the spring and summer months of 2015, and rely on observations based on algal physiology (e.g. nutrient ratios and temperature-growth curve) for both taxa. Results indicate that models based on real world data can accurately depict the general trends of algal blooms. Models indicate that the ‘warm anomaly’, the large mass of unusually warm water that persisted on the west coast of North American from 2013 to 2015 was the primary driver of bloom for both taxa, with nutrient ratios also playing an important role. Both models show great promise in forecasting Coccolithophore and Pseudo-nitzschia blooms off of the North American west coast, as well as the propagation of domoic acid (a dangerous toxin produced by Pseudo-nitzschia) and how it may impact local fisheries in response to climatological and nutrient forcing. These models demonstrate the application of modeling and its role in helping us better understand the underlying factors that drive phytoplankton blooms.

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    Computer modeling of anomalous phytoplankton blooms off the California Coast

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    James Sherman, Gonzaga University - Abstract: Over the last 20 years, aberrant algal blooms have been increasing in frequency and scope in coastal waters, likely as a result of anthropogenic influences (e.g. global climate change and nutrient loading). Modeling offers promise in enhancing our ability to project and ultimately mitigate these blooms by improving our understanding of their underlying causes. Here I model Coccolithophore and Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the Monterey Bay and Santa Barbara regions. These models are based on actual bloom events that occurred in the spring and summer months of 2015, and rely on observations based on algal physiology (e.g. nutrient ratios and temperature-growth curve) for both taxa. Results indicate that models based on real world data can accurately depict the general trends of algal blooms. Models indicate that the ‘warm anomaly’, the large mass of unusually warm water that persisted on the west coast of North American from 2013 to 2015 was the primary driver of bloom for both taxa, with nutrient ratios also playing an important role. Both models show great promise in forecasting Coccolithophore and Pseudo-nitzschia blooms off of the North American west coast, as well as the propagation of domoic acid (a dangerous toxin produced by Pseudo-nitzschia) and how it may impact local fisheries in response to climatological and nutrient forcing. These models demonstrate the application of modeling and its role in helping us better understand the underlying factors that drive phytoplankton blooms.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    173 vizualizări22 pagini

    Computer Modeling of Anomalous Phytoplankton Blooms Off The California Coast

    Încărcat de

    jpeterson1
    James Sherman, Gonzaga University - Abstract: Over the last 20 years, aberrant algal blooms have been increasing in frequency and scope in coastal waters, likely as a result of anthropogenic influences (e.g. global climate change and nutrient loading). Modeling offers promise in enhancing our ability to project and ultimately mitigate these blooms by improving our understanding of their underlying causes. Here I model Coccolithophore and Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the Monterey Bay and Santa Barbara regions. These models are based on actual bloom events that occurred in the spring and summer months of 2015, and rely on observations based on algal physiology (e.g. nutrient ratios and temperature-growth curve) for both taxa. Results indicate that models based on real world data can accurately depict the general trends of algal blooms. Models indicate that the ‘warm anomaly’, the large mass of unusually warm water that persisted on the west coast of North American from 2013 to 2015 was the primary driver of bloom for both taxa, with nutrient ratios also playing an important role. Both models show great promise in forecasting Coccolithophore and Pseudo-nitzschia blooms off of the North American west coast, as well as the propagation of domoic acid (a dangerous toxin produced by Pseudo-nitzschia) and how it may impact local fisheries in response to climatological and nutrient forcing. These models demonstrate the application of modeling and its role in helping us better understand the underlying factors that drive phytoplankton blooms.

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    din 22

    Modeling anomalous

    phytoplankton blooms off the


    California Coast

    Jimmy Sherman, Gonzaga University


    Dr. Raphe Kudela, UC Santa Cruz
    Jesse Bausell, UC Santa Cruz

    Motivation
    Blooms are becoming more common,
    not fully understood by current
    research
    Some blooms are harmful and
    negatively affect the environment
    Modeling can help in forecasting and
    analyzing these phytoplankton bloom
    events

    Why Modeling?
    Forecasting complex systems
    Observing patterns and trends
    Change factors to predict changes
    that could happen in the real world

    NetLogo - an agent-based modeling


    system

    Coccolithophores off the


    Shore
    June 2015 huge bloom of
    Coccolithophores detected in Santa
    Barbara Channel
    July 2015 Another large bloom
    observed in Monterey Bay
    Coincidence?

    Causes The Warm


    Anomaly

    Credit: ECOHAB(top), Earth Research Institute (bottom)

    Causes Low Silicate

    Assumptions and Modeling


    Factors

    Only two populations


    No predation
    Standard distribution of
    temperatures across ocean
    Only temperature and nutrients
    affect populations
    Modeled temperature, nutrients and
    population phases during a bloom

    10

    15
    20

    10

    15
    20

    10

    15

    Modeling the effects of Domoic Acid


    Another anomalous bloom, PseudoNitzchia, also seen on the entire west
    coast
    Produces Domoic Acid, a harmful
    substance to shellfish and mammals

    Credit: Ryan M. McCabe

    Causes The Warm


    Anomaly

    Credit: Ryan M. McCabe

    Causes Ideal Nutrient


    Conditions

    Credit: Ryan M. McCabe

    Assumptions and Modeling


    Factors

    Average temperature for the system


    75% diffusion rate for DA
    15% decay rate for DA
    One species, Pseudo-Australis
    Modeling factors: nutrient ratios, DA
    absorption and diffusion, plankton
    phases

    1000

    10000

    1000

    10000

    1000

    10000

    Causes Farm run-off

    Credit: Ryan M. McCabe

    Conclusion
    Modeling can forecast blooms and
    help us to mitigate the effects of
    harmful blooms
    Further data is required to find
    factors that affect Coccolithophore
    and harmful blooms

    Acknowledgements

    Dr. Raphe Kudela, UC Santa Cruz


    Jesse Bausell, UC Santa Cruz
    Dr. Emily Schaller and all the NASA staff for putting on a
    great program!

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