Water Quality Modeling used to Inform

Operational Decisions for the

NYC Water Supply:
A Ten Year Retrospective
Mark S. Zion, Donald C. Pierson,
Elliot M. Schneiderman and Adao H. Matonse
New York City Department of Environmental Protection

NYC Watershed/Tifft Science and Technical Symposium

West Point, New York
September 18-19, 2013

Introduction
Elevated turbidity can be an issue for the Catskill System of the
NYC water supply during and after periods of high streamflow.
Informed operations during event periods can help to mitigate the
impacts of turbidity on the water supply
Over the last decade, DEP has developed and applied an
extensive suite of water quality and water system models which
are used to analyze turbidity transport in the Catskill System.

This presentation describes the models and illustrates how the

models have been applied to help inform operational decisions to
maintain high quality water at supply intakes.

DIVIDING WEIR

System Description

DIVIDING
WEIR
GATE

GATE
HOUSE

EAST BASIN

Kensico
WEST
BASIN

CATSKILL
AQUEDUCT

RELEASE
CHANNEL

Ashokan Reservoir Options

Model Description
CEQUAL-W2 Two Dimensional Reservoir Models
Ashokan

Kensico
Catskill Influent

Esopus
Creek
Delaware
Influent

Dividing
Weir
Catskill
Effluent
Spillway
Catskill
Aqueduct

Release
Channel

Delaware
Effluent

CEQUAL-W2 Models adapted to simulate turbidity transport by Upstate Freshwater Institute

(UFI).

Model Description
CEQUAL-W2 Two Dimensional Reservoir Models
Example Longitudinal Profiles
Temperature

Kensico
Catskill Influent

Delaware
Influent

Catskill
Effluent

Turbidity Profile

Delaware
Effluent

Model Description
OASIS system model combined with CEQUAL-W2 Reservoir Models
OASIS Model of

Sc h o_ Spl

Sc ho_ LL O

9 91

99 3

New York City

6 25

Water Supply System and

Schoha ri

R on dLo s s

Delaware River Basin

9 10
W Br a_ dem

MBr a_ dem

76 9

77 1

B oy dsC or
Es o pus C k

Al la ben _
63 5

630

W As h _Sp l

61 6

EA s hok an

M_ B ranc h

6 70

C helse a _

71 6
67 5

620

C rot_ D iv

72 0

Shaft_ 5A

D e lBnD iv

Pe pac Sp l

115

7 30

6 71
C rD i v Sp l
72 1

C r o FlSpl

W _Br a Spl

7 26

67 6

Amw l k Sp l

M us c oo tJ

Titc s Spl

7 46

73 6

Mu s c tSpl

C rR v rSpl

7 56

75 1

74 5
N w C r _d em

A maw alk _
7 50

761

996

Bo y d s Spl

7 11

Tit icus_

73 5

685
7 40

66 0

N e vrs R e s

C ros sR vr

9 83
7 55

R on d_ Spl

R on d_R e l

Neversink R.

899

EBC r otJ n

Be low D iv

768

61 0

13 0

72 2

Mus c _d em

C atJu nc 1

21 5

H ale Edd y

72 5

98 7
MtMar ion

R ondout _

Fis h Edd y

Stiles v l

68 0

Sha ft_ 11

767

611
As h W as te

60 0

H ar v ar d _ 110

12 5

Sh aft_ 1 0

621

C rotFall

Am aw _d e m

Sh aft_ 4_
9 86
89 7

D ow n s v il

120

R oW B_de m

61 2

100

10 5

89 8

615
Shaft_6 _

E. Br. Delaware R.
C a nnonsv

W. Br. Del aw are R.

M_ Br aSpl

W _B ran ch

C ats k _ In
65 7

W A shoka n

C ann oSpl

EBrBg Sp l

EB rB ogB r

Sh a ft_9 _

EAs h_Sp l

655

650

71 5

71 0
99 5

6 51

Pe pac t on

Spill Nod es

Musc oot _
6 90

Sh aft_1 3

6 95

Shaft_ 17

N e v rs Sp l
66 1

Delaware R.

C a tJ _ dem
7 60

13 5
C allic o o

2 20

N ew _C rot

N e v rs R iv

992
9 98

185

Ja dwin__

TT_ U pD el

MongpR e s
15 5

TT_ LoD el

Mongaup R.

D y ber ry _
Bar r y v il

16 5

W. Br. Lackawaxen R.
150

H on es d al

NC r o_ Sp l
W J W W_ de m
Oak la nd V

14 0

7 01

2 30

Lackawaxen R.

W Br La c k w

99 9
2 25

190

Mo n gpR i v

1 45

Promp ton

994

N C ro_R e l
W ood br ne

Dyberry Cr.
16 0

2 05

D emd_ 1 N Y

21 0

D emd_ 1 N J

K ens ico_

6 99

997

17 0

Kens _Sp l

180

H aw l ey _ _

Kn 4 8_ d em

7 00

1 95
Po rtJ e r v

20 0

2 35

D emd_ 1 PA

W ils on v l
Mon tag ue

KH _D el Aq

KH _C atAq

Wa lle npa
1 75

70 2

7 07

7 03

Kn D l_ de m

70 6
KnC t_de m

Wallenpaup ack Cr.

76 6
To c k s Is l

240

7 65

C r otJ n c 1

C r Aq _de m

770
C ro tJ nc 2

70 5

H illv ie w

7 75
J er ome Pk

Lehigh R.
260

2 65

FEW a lte r

2 45

Belv id er

W hiteh v n

M errlR e s
280
Aq uas hic

B e lt z R e s

25 5

2 70

32 0
28 5

Be ltz R iv

H a c k e tts
Palme rtn

275

250

Blo oms b y

Lehigh R.

29 0

435

N Yor k Cty

36 0
3 30

Glen d on _

3 40
D &R -Kin g

R ie ge ls v

305

Sc h ne c k s

900

D&R Can al

De md _2 NJ

315

W a ln utp t
295

425

78 0

32 5

310

Tam aqu a_

B Q _A quif

Muscon etong R.
Me rrlTrn

D em d_ 3PA

Tr e ntInc
C r es s on a
Potts v il

335

Beth le hm

30 0

Jordan Cr.

42 0

D em d_4 N J

366

As s u nC rk

D e md_ 2PA

44 0

Al len tw n

3 75

355

35 0

N oc ka mix
D r eh er s v

Pipe r s v l

38 0

PPle as n t

Assun pi nk Cr.

34 5
La ndi ng v

37 0

Tohickon Cr.

43 0
4 45

45 0
Ber ne ___

3 65

Tre nton_

D emd_ 4 PA

Vir g ins v

Crosswicks Cr.

390
3 85

Maiden Cr.

La ngh or n

Ex tonv il

Gr ater fd

B lueM R es

480
490

46 5

455
46 0
Blue Mrs h

40 0

D em d_6 PA

4 10

To r re s dl

R ead ing _

Perkiomen Cr.

4 70

Tulpehocken Cr.

Pe mber tn

Po tts tw n

OASIS Model used to

simulate aqueduct flows
and reservoir releases
and spills

Combined OASIS-W2 is
backbone of Operations
Support Tool (under
development)

D em_ 7AN J

39 5
47 5

Sch uylkill R.

N. Br. Ranco cas Cr..

Limer i c k

4 15
485
Pier II_N

Philad el

4 05
D e m_ 5APA

Ch e s trC k

D em _5BPA
50 0

510

4 95
Sc huy lk l

Ch add s Fd
530

50 5
C h es ter _

D em d_8 PA

515
54 5

53 5

D e m_7BN J

W ilming t

Wh ite Clay Cr.

W o od dale
54 0

52 5

Me mBr id g

52 0

Red Clay Cr.

N e w ar k _ _
550
5 99
De md_8 D E
ter m _59 9

Model Development History

Late 1990s: Two Dimensional water quality models (CEQUAL-W2) developed as

part of FAD modeling (UFI).

Early 2000s: W2 models connected using linked reservoir software (UFI).

Mid 2000s: W2 models integrated with OASIS system model for analyses of
Catskill Turbidity Control Alternatives. (Hazen & Sawyer/Hydrologics/UFI)

Mid 2000s: W2 model improvements including use of multiple settling rates for
turbidity causing particles, improved resuspension processes and expanded
historical time series. (UFI)

Mid-Late 2000s: OASIS/W2 model used to evaluate alternatives for Catskill

Turbidity Control Program. (Hazen & Sawyer/Hydrologics/UFI)

Late 2000s-Early 2010s: Development of Operations Support Tool (OST)

including the integrated OASIS/W2 model along with improved inflow forecasts
and data integration. (Hazen & Sawyer/Hydrologics/UFI)

Other Modeling Applications:

Long Term Planning
Recommendations for operating rules
Catskill Turbidity Control Program
Delaware Basin Flexible Flow Management Program (FFMP)
Climate Change Studies
7

Model Description Application Method

Meteorologic Input
(Temp., RH, Solar Rad)

Initial Conditions
(Reservoir Water
Temperature/Turbidity
Profiles; Reservoir
Storage Levels;
Snowpack)

Flows

Turbidity

OASIS Water
System Model

Reservoir
Storage

Reservoir Water
Quality Model
(CEQUAL-W2)

Effluent
Turbidity

Time Series Input (Forecast)

Model

Initial Conditions (Snapshot)

Results

Model Description Application Method

Meteorologic Input
(Temp., RH, Solar Rad)

Initial Conditions
(Reservoir Water
Temperature/Turbidity
Profiles; Reservoir
Storage Levels;
Snowpack)
Current reservoir water
surface elevations
Limnological surveys
Data from automated
profiles of water column
temperature and turbidity
Snow survey results

Flows

Turbidity

OASIS Water
System Model

Reservoir
Storage

Reservoir Water
Quality Model
(CEQUAL-W2)

Effluent
Turbidity

Time Series Input (Forecast)

Model

Initial Conditions (Snapshot)

Results

Model Description Application Method

Forecast based on historical record or weather service analysis
Multiple traces representing many potential future input time
series

Meteorologic Input
(Temp., RH, Solar Rad)

Initial Conditions
(Reservoir Water
Temperature/Turbidity
Profiles; Reservoir
Storage Levels;
Snowpack)

Flows

Turbidity

OASIS Water
System Model

Reservoir
Storage

Reservoir Water
Quality Model
(CEQUAL-W2)

Effluent
Turbidity

Time Series Input (Forecast)

Model

Initial Conditions (Snapshot)

Results

10

Model Description Application Method

Meteorologic Input
(Temp., RH, Solar Rad)

Initial Conditions
(Reservoir Water
Temperature/Turbidity
Profiles; Reservoir
Storage Levels;
Snowpack)

Flows

Turbidity

OASIS Water
System Model

Reservoir
Storage

Reservoir Water
Quality Model
(CEQUAL-W2)

Effluent
Turbidity
Multiple time series
results representing
each of the forecast
traces

Time Series Input (Forecast)

Model

Initial Conditions (Snapshot)

Results

11

Model Description Application Method

Example of Position Analysis
Model run for 57 inflow traces based on historical flow and
meteorologic record (1948-2004)

Statistics of traces can be translated to

cumulative probability function

12

Modeling Applications History

Number of Modeling Analyses by Year

Number of Modeling Analyses by Month

13

Sample Analysis Ashokan Reservoir

Model Simulations Late February 2010
Esopus Creek Inflow

Esopus Creek Turbidity

Large storm at the end of January 2010 filled

the Ashokan Reservoir and elevated turbidity
in the West Basin of the reservoir.

If another large storm event were to occur in

late February, the West Basin would spill to
the East Basin, creating elevated East Basin
turbidity.

A series of CEQUAL-W2 reservoir model

simulations and OASIS system model
simulations were performed to understand
how the use of the Ashokan release channel
reduces the risk of higher turbidity water in
the West Basin spilling over the dividing weir
and entering the East Basin.

Esopus
Creek
Dividing
Weir

Spillway
Catskill
Aqueduct

Release
Channel

14

Sample Analysis Ashokan Reservoir

Model Simulations Late February 2010
Position Analysis Traces

East Basin Withdraw Turbidity (NTU)

Release Channel = 0 MGD

Cumulative Probability
Fraction of Traces with
Turbidity > 10 NTU on or before date

Release Channel = 350 MGD

Simulation Date - 2010
Release Channel = 0 MGD
Release Channel = 350 MGD

Simulation Date - 2010

Probability of turbidity exceeding 10 NTU

by end of three month simulation period
reduced from near 95% to about 35%
15

Sample Analysis Ashokan Reservoir

Model Simulations Late February 2010

Cumulative Probability
First Date of Spill from West Basin to East

Simulation Date - 2010

Using release channel significantly

delays and reduces risk of spill from
West Basin to East Basin.

Delay and reduction in spill reduces risks

of elevated turbidity in East Basin

Delay and reduction in West to East Spill

also reduces risk and amount of spill
from East Basin.

Release Channel = 0 MGD

Release Channel = 350 MGD

16

Model Description Application Method

Kensico Sensitivity Model Application

Flows

Initial Conditions
(Reservoir Water
Temperature/Turbidity
Profiles)

Turbidity

Reservoir Water
Quality Model
(CEQUAL-W2)

Effluent
Turbidity

Meteorologic Input
(Temp., RH, Solar Rad)

Time Series Input (Forecast)

Model

Initial Conditions (Snapshot)

Results

17

Model Description Application Method

Kensico Sensitivity Model Application

Flows

Initial Conditions
(Reservoir Water
Temperature/Turbidity
Profiles)
Current reservoir water
surface elevations
Limnological surveys
Data from automated
profiles of water column
temperature and
turbidity

Turbidity

Reservoir Water
Quality Model
(CEQUAL-W2)

Effluent
Turbidity

Meteorologic Input
(Temp., RH, Solar Rad)

Time Series Input (Forecast)

Model

Initial Conditions (Snapshot)

Results

18

Model Description Application Method

Kensico Sensitivity Model Application

Flows

Initial Conditions
(Reservoir Water
Temperature/Turbidity
Profiles)

Turbidity

Reservoir Water
Quality Model
(CEQUAL-W2)

Effluent
Turbidity

Meteorologic Input
(Temp., RH, Solar Rad)
Forecast based on historical record or weather service analysis
Multiple traces representing many potential future input time
series
Time Series Input (Forecast)

Model

Initial Conditions (Snapshot)

Results

19

Model Description Application Method

Kensico Sensitivity Model Application
Prescribed constant time series based on expected turbidity and
potential flow rates from upstream reservoirs (via aqueducts)

Flows

Initial Conditions
(Reservoir Water
Temperature/Turbidity
Profiles)

Turbidity

Reservoir Water
Quality Model
(CEQUAL-W2)

Effluent
Turbidity

Meteorologic Input
(Temp., RH, Solar Rad)

Time Series Input (Forecast)

Model

Initial Conditions (Snapshot)

Results

20

Model Description Application Method

Kensico Sensitivity Model Application

Flows

Initial Conditions
(Reservoir Water
Temperature/Turbidity
Profiles)

Turbidity

Reservoir Water
Quality Model
(CEQUAL-W2)

Effluent
Turbidity
For each
combination of fixed
turbidity and flow
inputs the model
produces multiple
traces of turbidity
results based on the
meteorologic input
traces

Meteorologic Input
(Temp., RH, Solar Rad)

Time Series Input (Forecast)

Model

Initial Conditions (Snapshot)

Results

21

Sample Kensico Analysis

October 2010
Esopus Creek Inflow

Catskill
Influent
(20 or 40 NTU)
(50, 150 or 250 MGD)

(1.5 NTU)
(1150, 1050 or
1000 MGD)

Delaware
Influent
Catskill
Effluent

(400 MGD)

Delaware
Effluent
(800 MGD)

Esopus Creek Turbidity

Large event in October produced large

input of turbidity to Ashokan Reservoir.
There was a large impact on Ashokan
diversion turbidity and stop shutters
were employed to reduce flow to
Kensico Reservoir.

Kensico 2D reservoir model used to

determine effects of elevated turbidity
and various Catskill Aqueduct flow
rates on Kensico Reservoir effluent.
22

Sample Kensico Analysis

October 2010
Simulated Catskill Effluent Turbidity
Catskill
Aqueduct
Influent
Turbidity

50 MGD

Catskill Aqueduct Inflow

150 MGD

250 MGD

20 NTU

40 NTU

These runs indicated that if Catskill influent turbidity was above 20 NTU flow rate should be reduced to 150
MGD. If Catskill influent turbidity rises to about 40 NTU for an extended period, then flow should be reduced
to about 50 MGD.
23

Conclusions
Over the last decade DEP has developed and applied an
extensive suite of water quality and water system models to
analyze turbidity transport within the Catskill System Reservoirs.

DEPs water quality models have been effectively used to help

inform operational decisions to minimize use of alum and turbidity
at water supply intakes.

Development and application of these models continues under

the Operations Support Tool project.

24