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New Year 2150?

Why might climate change mean that London and other
major cities could become flooded in the future?

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What is climate?
Climate is not the same as
weather. What is the difference?
Weather is the state of the
atmosphere at a given time and
place. It is measured in terms of
factors such as temperature,
rainfall, humidity and cloudiness.
Climate is the average weather for a region over a long
period of time, usually 30 years.
One way to remember the difference is that climate
is what you expect, weather is what you get.
Weather can change several times a day; the climate
normally takes a long time to change. What would happen
if the climate changed quickly?
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Is the climate always the same?

Systematic recording of weather data has only occurred
since the 19th century. These and other records have shown
that the climate does naturally change over time.
For example, paintings and
diaries provide information
about the Little Ice Age.
This was a period of cooling
from about 1300 to 1850.
Many glaciers increased in
size, crops were lost and
major rivers, such as the
Thames, regularly froze.
Before the Little Ice Age, there was an unusually warm
period known as the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted
for about eight centuries.
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What is climate change?

Climate change is a natural phenomenon and normally
takes place over several centuries.
The term climate change is being used now to refer to
the current climate. This is because recent scientific
records show that the global climate seems to be
warming up more rapidly than usual.
The average global temperature has
increased by 0.6C in 140 years.
The ten hottest years for the last 100 years
have occurred since 1990.
Scientists have predicted that the climate could
increase by up to 6C in the next 150 years.
What could be causing this and should we be concerned?
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Impacts of climate change

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How is the Earth warmed?

Climate is affected by the conditions
and components of the atmosphere.
The Earths atmosphere acts like
the glass in a greenhouse and is
needed to keep the planet warm
enough for life to exist.
Sunlight passes through the Earths atmosphere and the
Earth gives out infrared radiation. Certain gases trap some
of this radiation in the atmosphere, which keeps the Earth
warm. This is called the greenhouse effect.
Having some greenhouse gases is a good thing. If it
wasnt for these gases, Earth would be too cold to live on!
However, too much of a good thing can be bad.
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The greenhouse effect

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The greenhouse effect

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How hot can the greenhouse effect get?

The planet Venus is further
from the Sun than Mercury
but has an higher average
temperature. Its surface can
reach up to 482C, which is
hot enough to melt lead!
Venus atmosphere is mostly
made up of carbon dioxide,
which traps so much of the
solar radiation that the planet
becomes extremely hot.
The hostile climate conditions
on Venus make it impossible for
life to survive.
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Greenhouse gases

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What is global warming?

The term global warming is often
used in connection with climate change,
but what does it mean?
Global warming refers to the increase
in the Earths temperature due to the
greenhouse effect, which can cause
changes in climate.
However, the term global warming is now being used to
refer to the warming predicted to occur as a result of
increased emissions of greenhouse gases and other
human activities. This enhanced greenhouse effect may
lead to significant climate change.
Remember, global warming and climate change are not
the same thing and should not be used interchangeably.
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Why is carbon dioxide so important?

Carbon dioxide is considered the
most significant greenhouse gas.
This is because carbon dioxide can
remain in the environment over a long
time, from 50 to 200 years.
Any process producing carbon dioxide today could affect
the climate for hundreds of years.
Carbon is present in all living things and moves through the
environment in a chain of reactions called the carbon cycle.
Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have increased
since the industrial revolution in the 19th century.
How might human activities have contributed to this?
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What is the carbon cycle?

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Carbon dioxide in the carbon cycle

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What happens when fossil fuels are burned?

Fossil fuels are carbon-based materials
that formed over millions of years from
the remains of ancient plants and animals.
Fossil fuels are burned to generate heat.
This combustion reaction creates carbon
dioxide and water as waste products.
fossil fuels

oxygen carbon dioxide

water

Greater use of fossil fuels is thought to be the main source

of the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Should the use of fossil fuels be limited?
How would this affect our lifestyles?
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What else affects greenhouse gas levels?

Burning wood releases carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere.
Living trees also have a major impact on
the atmosphere, as they produce oxygen
and absorb the greenhouse gas carbon
dioxide. Deforestation reduces the
amount of photosynthesis taking place
and so increases carbon dioxide levels.
Rice farming and cattle farming produce
the greenhouse gas methane.
This gas is 7.5 times more effective as a
greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but
is currently in the atmosphere at much
lower levels.
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What is the evidence for climate change?

Data collected by climate
scientists can be used to
answer two key questions:
Is the climate really
changing rapidly?
Is human activity causing
this climate change?
These scientists are setting
up an Automatic Weather
Station on the Djankuat
glacier, in the Caucasus
Mountains in Russia.
Monitoring glaciers has produced startling evidence
about the rate at which some glaciers are melting.
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How are carbon dioxide levels measured?

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are measured around
the world to detect global trends in this greenhouse gas.
The standard measurement used is parts per million (ppm).
In 2005, levels were around 370 ppm. This means for every
million parts of air, 370 parts were carbon dioxide.
Research stations for
monitoring atmospheric
gases are usually sited
in remote places.
The Mauna Loa
Observatory in Hawaii,
is located at an altitude
of 4,170 metres.
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Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels

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What are ice cores?

Ice cores are long
columns of ice that are
drilled out of glaciers.
Ice cores are studied to
increase understanding
of the history of climate
as they provide data
about the distant past.
Air bubbles trapped in the ice are used to estimate carbon
dioxide levels thousands of years ago.
This is called a proxy record. These are indirect climate
measures of the climate that have not been recorded using
instruments. Tree rings are another type of proxy record.
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Data from ice cores

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CO2 conc. (ppm)

CO2 conc. (ppm)

How different are carbon dioxide levels today?

These graphs show
how carbon dioxide
concentrations have
changed over time.

400
300
200
100

Around 200 years ago,

carbon dioxide levels
0
400
300
200
100
0
years before present (thousands) were about 280 ppm
and are now about
400
380 ppm.

300

According to records,
this is about 27% more
than at any time in the
last 400,000 years.

200
100
0
1960
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1980

year

2000

How might this

affect the climate?
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Temperature change

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difference from
average temp. (C)

Are temperature and carbon dioxide related?

The global average
temperature has
increased at the
same time as the
levels of carbon
dioxide have risen.

0.6
0.4
0.2
0

-0.2
-0.4

CO2 conc. (ppm)

-0.6

1861

1941

year

2001

400
300
200
100
0
1960
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1980

year

2000

However, it is not
correct to say that
carbon dioxide levels
have caused this
temperature change,
because there are
other factors involved.
How should the data
be discussed?
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How should I talk about the climate data?

It is important to be very careful about the words used
to discuss scientific data.
Collected data shows that temperature and carbon dioxide
levels in the atmosphere have increased at the same time.
It might seem to make sense to say that the rise in carbon
dioxide is causing the temperature rise but this is incorrect.
How do you know that it is not the temperature increase
that is causing carbon dioxide levels to rise?
Can you say for certain that carbon dioxide is the only
factor in the change of temperature?
It is more correct to say that there appears to be a positive
relationship between carbon dioxide levels and temperature.
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How is climate change predicted?

Scientists use experiments to explore how things works and
test predictions. However, the climate is far too large and too
complicated to be reproduced in a laboratory.
Instead, computer models are
used to represent the climate
and explore the possible effects
of human actions.
Mathematical formulae are
used to represent the
separate parts of the climate
system and how they interact.
In models, the Earth is divided
into grid squares. Using smaller
squares increases the detail.
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How is the climate modelled?

There are many factors that can affect the climate. All these
interactions need to be included in climate models.
radiation
from the
Earth

radiation
from the
Sun

volcanoes

atmosphere
precipitation
ice on
land

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evaporation
transpiration
ice in the sea
seas and
oceans

land

rivers and
lakes
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Who first used maths for climate prediction?

Climate modelling evolved from
formulae used for weather
prediction. These were created
by Lewis Fry Richardson, an
English mathematician.
When his work was published
in 1922, the predictions were
not very accurate because the
calculations took a long time.
Richardson thought a hall full
of people working on the
calculations would be needed
to keep up with the weather.
What he really needed was a
supercomputer!
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What is a supercomputer?
Computers were developed in the 1960s and have been
getting more and more powerful ever since.
The Earth Simulator
centre in Japan has one
of the largest computers
used for climate modelling.
It can work at a speed of
35,000,000,000
calculations per second!
Powerful computers like
this make it possible to
model the complexity of
the climate system.
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How can I help predict climate change?

Climateprediction.net is a climate modelling programme
that can be run from home and school computers.
Instead of using one
supercomputer, lots of smaller
computers are used to run
climate models. This is called
distributed computing.
The project has been running
since 2004 and uses over
90,000 computers worldwide.
These globes show the results
of simulations to predict how
the temperature may change in
response to greenhouse gases.
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How accurate are climate models?

Within a small section of the scientific community
there is still some scepticism about the accuracy
of the predictions produced using climate models.
Arguments against using climate models include:
Climate models do not measure local variability well.
It is difficult to model aspects of the climate like clouds.
Cloud cover greatly influences surface temperature.
Not including clouds in models could reduce their
accuracy.
To predict the contribution of humans to climate change,
the models have to make assumptions about population
and economic growth. This could cause prediction errors.
How are climate researchers trying to solve these problems?
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How are climate models tested?

Climate change researchers take several steps to
make model predictions more reliable.
Data from previous climates, such as the 20th
century, is entered into the model. This tests
the ability of the model to reproduce known climates.
Scientists usually report a range of projections or
scenarios. These can show, for example, how the climate
might change if human carbon dioxide production stays
the same, if it decreases or if it increases.
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a
UN organization that is responsible for assessing climate
change data. They use information from different
computer models to write reports for governments about
the science of climate change.
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What climate changes are predicted?

Using data from several key sources, the International Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) have made the following
projections about climate change.
Key projections are that by 2100:
Mean global temperature will have increased by
1.4 to 5.8 C.
Sea levels will rise by 0.09 m 0.88 m.
There will be more precipitation (rain, snow, hail,
etc.) over the northern hemisphere.
There will be more hot days and fewer cold days.
How should we respond to these projections?
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Opinions on climate change

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Reporting climate change

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Why not just wait and see what happens?

Some effects of climate change may not
take place for decades. Would it be better to
wait before taking action?
The precautionary principle advises that a
lack of scientific certainty is not an argument
against taking action when there is a serious
threat. This can be applied to climate change.
If predictions about the human impact on climate change
are correct, the results will be widespread and devastating.
Rising sea levels would flood many major cities.
Decreasing rainfalls in Africa could affect 70% of the
continents population, leading to widespread famine.
If we delay taking action, it is likely to become
impossible to avoid or reverse these climate changes.
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Tackling climate change

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Glossary
carbon cycle The movement of carbon and carbon
compounds through the atmosphere and ecosystem.
climate The average weather pattern for a region over
a long period of time, usually 30 years.
climate change A significant variation in the long-term
weather patterns for a region.
global warming An increase in the average temperature
of Earth.
greenhouse effect The trapping of infrared radiation
by the Earths atmosphere, which makes the temperature
warmer than it would be otherwise.
greenhouse gas An atmospheric gas that can trap
infrared radiation.
proxy record A natural or indirect record of climate.
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Anagrams

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Climate change true or false?

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Multiple-choice quiz

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