(deep) Lake models

The basic difference with rivers is that the horizontal

dimension(s) are comparable to depth. Thus:
The velocity of the water is small (negligible)
The differences along the vertical dimension are relevant
The dynamics of higher levels of the trophic chain
(phytoplankton, zooplankton, fishes) are relevant
Slower processes (e.g. seasonal changes) must be
considered
The underlying hydraulic model is obviously different

A lake (often artificial) can be studied

as a sequence of horizontally
perfectly mixed boxes.

Stratification
The basic consequence of depth (in temperate
climate) is water stratification.

spring

wind

summer
heating faster than mixing

same temp.
thus mixing

warm water is
less dense,
thus floats,
and needs lots
of wind to mix

Stratification - 2
Stratified lakes present three distinct zones.
0

thermocline
hypolimnium

sediments

depth (m)

epilimnium

region of
rapid
temperature
change

10

20
30
0

10
20 30
temperature (C)

Stratification - 3
A typical yearly pattern in temperate countries
(dimictic lakes holomictic lakes)

Eutrophication

Eutrophication
consequences
Loss of water quality, fish
death

Eutrophication processes
(WASP7)
DO

Photosynthes
is
PeriphytonPhytoplankton

atmosphere
Reaeration

Periphyton is a
mixture of algae,
cyanobacteria,
heterotrophic
microbes attached
to submerged
surfaces

Respiratio
n

Oxidation

Detritu
sC P N

CBOD1
CBOD2
CBOD3

Death&Gazin
g

Dis.
Dis.
Org. P Org. N
Mineralizati
on

NH3

PO4

Nitrification

NO3

Adsorptio
n

SSinorg

Denitrificatio
n

Settling

Phytoplankton

The growth rate of a population of

phytoplankton in a natural environment:
is a complicated function of the species of
phytoplankton present
involves different reactions to solar
radiation, temperature, and the balance
between nutrient availability and
phytoplankton requirements
Due to the lack of information to specify the
growth kinetics for individual algal species all
models characterizes the population as a
whole by the total biomass of the
phytoplankton present (measured in terms of
chlorophyll concentration)

Phytoplankton - 2

NH
NH33

NO
NO33

Light
Light

Phyt
Phyt

O C:N:P

Growth rate:

RG

Gmax X T X L X N

PO
PO44

Gmax = maximum specific growth rate constant at 20C, 0.5 4.0 day -1
XT = temperature growth multiplier , dimensionless
XL = light growth multiplier, dimensionless
XN = nutrient growth multiplier, dimensionless

Phytoplankton growth
XT

T 20
G

Temperature multiplier

where: G = temperature correction factor for growth (1.0 1.1)

T = water temperature, C
Nutrient multiplier

XN

min

Cp
C Ni
,
,...
K Ni C Ni K p C p

Defines a
limiting factor

KMN
semisaturation
constant

Phytoplankton growth - 2
XL depends on the light l(z) available for photosynthesis at
depth z. It may be written using Michaelis-Menten
formulation

l ( z)
X L ( z)
kl l ( z )

or Steele (1965) formulation

l( z)
l ( z)

X L ( z)
exp 1
ls
ls

where ls represents an optimal (maximum) light intensity.

But

The
and

The

The

incident light on a water surface varies during the day

the season
light intensity naturally decreases with depth
presence of phytoplankton further increases light

Light attenuation
The light intensity dependence on depth l(z) can be expressed
by the Beer-Lambert law

l ( z ) l0 exp( ( Phyt ) z )
where l0 is the incident radiation on the surface and the
(Phyt )
function
can be written as a polynomial function of phytoplankton
concentration.

Typical seasonal patterns

The relation between phytoplankton and zooplankton is a

typical predator-prey system.
Algal blooms occur in spring.

Other components of phyoplankton

dynamics

Death rate:

RD

k1R 1TR20 k1D k1G Z (t )

k1R = endogenous respiration rate constant, day-1
1R = temperature correction factor, dimensionless
k1D = mortality rate constant, day-1
k1G = grazing rate constant, day-1, or m3/gZ-day if Z(t) specified
Z(t) = zooplankton biomass time function, gZ/m3 (defaults to

1.0)
Settling
rate:

RS

vS AS / V

vS = settling velocity, m/day

AS = surface area, m2
V = segment volume, m3

C
T

2
0
4
kC

8
3
8
3
8
K

m
p
c
4
C4tD
apcG
4acCt3Dpo(1
vf
(
1

)
C
vpD
T

2
0
sd
33
4
spp
4C
fp)acC4k83Kmpc84GpCapcDC3
Phosphorus cycle
Phytoplankton
Phytoplankton

Detr.
Detr.PP

PO
PO44

Phytoplankton P

Org.
Org.PP

Inorganic P

Death

Death

Growth Settling

Detrital P

C15
t

Mineralization

D p fOP a pc C4 kdiss
Death
Death

T 20
diss

C15

Dissolution

vs 15
D

Settling

Growth

Settling

Dissolved organic P

C8
C4
T 20
T 20

kdiss diss C15 k83 83

C
K C 8
t
mpc 4
Dissolutio

Mineralizatio

Very high number of parameters

Difficult to calibrate for a specific situation.
Ex. Phosphorus cycle parameters

Fully distributed model

It is necessary to compute all the internal

processes for each volume in a grid and model
the dispersion exchanges with the surrounding
volumes (thousands of state variables)

Control of eutrophication

Reduce loads (less use of detergents or fertilizers, better

treatment,)
Artificial mixing

Artificial aeration

Selective discharges

Defining the planning/control

problem
Water quality WQ is, in principle, a function of all the water
components c1,, cn in each location z1,z2,z3 and at any time instant t.

WQ f c1 ( z1 , z 2 , z3 , t ),..., cn ( z1 , z2 , z3 , t )

In practice, we are not able to define the form of such a function.

We thus define suitable indicators WQi for each components based on
some kind of aggregation in time and/or space.

WQi Stat ci ( z1 , z 2 , z3 , t )
zZ ,tT

where Stat() indicates some statistics over the spatial region Z and
the time interval T.
Examples:
- Summer average oxygen concentration in the hypolimnium
- Yearly average of phytoplankton concentration in the upper 10 m
- Number of times in a year in which the nitrogen concentration in

Defining the planning/control

problem - 2
Additionally, we can assume that the overall water quality is some
aggregation of the WQi . A common definition of the aggregation is
an index formulated
as a weighted sum:
n

WQ iWQ i
i 1

where the weights i express some (subjective) measure of the

importance of each factor in the assessment of water quality.
The planning/control problem can be written:

min(Cost (u ))
WQ(u ) WQ

or

max WQ(u )
Cost (u ) C

where u are the decisions and Cost(u) their cost.

Defining the planning/control

problem - 3
As already noted (see slides on DPSIR), when used for
planning/control, the model works in conditions different from those
used for calibration/validation.
The accuracy of the model cannot be proved.
The model can thus be used to test the effect of an input (decision,
parameter, boundary condition) on the output, to understand:
- the sense of the interaction (positive, negative)
- the entity of the interaction (larger, smaller than other input
variables).
To perform such Sensitivity/Uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo
simulation is normally used:
1. Generate random numbers for model inputs
2. Run the model with the randomized inputs
3. Store the random input values and the corresponding model
outputs
4. Repeat a (high) number of times the steps (1-3)

Sensitivity/Uncertainty
analysis
- Define the input to be
tested
- Select a suitable
distribution of values
(normal, lognormal,)
- Generate a set of random
values

- Run the model

- Analyse the output

distribution
- Compute the correlation
I/O
- Store the results
for the selected
output

Ex. YASAIw (US EPA)

YASAIwis a free open-source framework for Monte Carlo simulation
in Excel.
Three main functions:
1) To generate random model input values from a normal
distribution:
= GENNORMAL(mean, stdev)
mean = nominal value for model input;
stdev = e.g. 5% of mean for sensitivity analysis
2) To save the random input values and use them in a sensitivity
analysis:
= SIMOUTPUT(x, name, code)
x = cell address of the random input
name = unique name for the input
code = 1 for input assumption
3) To save the model output values and use them in a sensitivity
analysis:
= VBAOUTPUT(x, name, code)
x = cell address of the model output
name = unique name for the output

Sensitivity analysis of
QUAL2Kw

YASAIw GENNORMAL
functions

YASAIw SIMOUTPUT
functions

Links to the model output

sheets

Sensitivity average periphyton chlorophyll-a

to the most sensitive model inputs
Spearman's rank correlation
coefficient (Spearman's
rho), is a nonparametric
measure of statistical
dependence between two
variables. It assesses how
well the relationship
between two variables can
be described using a
monotonic function.

An alternative approach
The solution of the planning/control problems requires the use
of models to determine the link between decisions and water
quality.
However, a full quality model may not necessary, since we are
just interested in computing the link between decision and the
defined water quality.

Develop a SURROGATE MODEL, i.e. a (simplified) model able

to reproduce the required function, at least for a certain
range of values of u, which means to substitute the original
function WQ(u) with an approximation WQ=fs(u).

An alternative approach - 2
The overall procedure is thus:
Define
the
range of
u
Simulate the
original
model

Common forms for fs:

- A linear/polynomial
function
- A response surface
- A neural network
- ..
It must be simple

Define a
structure
for fs
Calibrate the
parameters of
fs
Validate fs
Use fsin the
optimization
procedure

The surrogate model

The surrogate model:
Its NOT a copy of the system
Its based on the original model input and output and thus
does not reproduce biochemical and physical phenomena
It works correctly (the approximation is acceptable) only for
the set of other input used for the original model simulation
(design of experiments)
It works correctly only within the range of u for what it has
been calibrated
Its faster to execute and thus can be repeated a high
number of times within the optimization procedure

Surrogate modelling
application

Determination of the best

number and position of artificial
aerators for an Australian
artificial reservoir.