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METHODOLOGY
LECTURE 6
VARIABLES, HYPOTHESIS
AND ERRORS
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Imran Siddiqi
Dept of CS
CONTENTS
Variables and Concepts
Types of variables
Hypothesis and Types
Testing the Hypothesis
Errors and Types
VARIABLE
"An attribute that is observable,
measurable, and has a dimension that
can vary".
Concept
Rich
Indicator Income & Assets
Income(in $) is also a variable
Assets
CONVERTING CONCEPTS TO
VARIABLES
Concept
Indicators
Variables
Decision level
Rich
1. Income
2. Assets
1. Income/year
2. Total value:
1. Home
2. Cars
1. If >$100,000
2. If > $250,000
High academic
achievement
1. Marks exam
2. Marks practical
1. Percentage
2. Percentage
1. If > 80%
2. If > 80%
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TYPES OF VARIABLES
causal relationship
The design of study
The unit of measurement
variable.
Extraneous variables
Variables
EXAMPLES
Does
Smoking
Cause
Lung cancer ?
Does
Nursing care
Cause
Rapid recovery ?
Does
Drug (a)
Cause
Improvement ?
Cause
Effect
Independent variable
Dependent variable
EXAMPLES
Extraneous
Variables
Active variables
Variables
Attribute Variables
A
EXAMPLE
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VARIABLES MEASUREMENT
VIEWPOINT
Categorical Variables (Qualitative)
Continuous Variables (Quantitative)
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VARIABLES MEASUREMENT
VIEWPOINT
Categorical Variables
Measured on nominal scales
Two types
Dichotomous
Variables
Polytomous
Variables
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VARIABLES MEASUREMENT
VIEWPOINT
Continuous Variables
Continuity in measurement take any value on
the scale on which they are measured
E.g. age, income etc.
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Hypothesis
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HYPOTHESIS
Hypothesis
Brings
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HYPOTHESIS - EXAMPLES
Distribution of smokers
Hunch
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HYPOTHESIS - EXAMPLES
Public health
A
HYPOTHESIS - EXAMPLES
In example 1
Waited
In example 2 & 3
Designed
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HYPOTHESIS
Researcher does not know about a phenomenon,
situation or a condition
But does have a hunch, assumption or guess
Conclude through verification
Hunch may be
Right
Wrong
Partially
right
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HYPOTHESIS - DEFINITIONS
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HYPOTHESIS - CONSIDERATIONS
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HYPOTHESIS - CONSIDERATIONS
The average age of male students in the
class is higher than that of female students
Clear
Specific
Testable
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HYPOTHESIS - CONSIDERATIONS
Suicide rates vary inversely with social
cohesion
Clear
Specific
Testable?
Difficult
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HYPOTHESIS - CONSIDERATIONS
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TYPE OF HYPOTHESIS
Categories of hypothesis
Research
hypothesis
hypothesis
WAYS OF FORMULATING
HYPOTHESIS
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WAYS OF FORMULATING
HYPOTHESIS
Hypothesis of No Difference
When
There
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WAYS OF FORMULATING
HYPOTHESIS
Hypothesis of Difference
A
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WAYS OF FORMULATING
HYPOTHESIS
Hypothesis of Point-Prevalence
A
Able
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WAYS OF FORMULATING
HYPOTHESIS
Hypothesis of Association
Expressed
Twice
as a relationship
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HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Hypothesis testing - H0
Null
hypothesis
Alternate
hypothesis
Errors
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
True state of nature
Your Decision
H0 is True
H0 is False
Reject H0
Accept H0
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HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Your Decision
H0 is False
Reject H0
Type I error
Correct Decision
Accept H0
Correct Decision
Type II error
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Reject H0
Accept H
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
H0 is True
H0 is False
Type I error
Correct Decision
Correct Decision
Type II error
Telling the person that he is sick when infact he was healthy Type I error
Telling the person that he is sick when infact he was sick
Correct
Telling the person that he is healthy when infact he was sick Type II error
Telling the person that he is healthy when infact he was healthy
Correct
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HYPOTHESIS TESTING
H0 = Defendent is Innocent
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Your Decision
Terrorist
Terrorist
False positive
True positive
Innocent
True Negative
False negative
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False Negative
False Positives
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PERFORMANCE MEASURES
Recall
TP
R
TP FN
Precision
TP
P
TP FP
F measure
Precision . Recall
F 2.
Precision + Recall
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TP
P
TP FP
TP
TP FN
Did system
detected extra
objects other
than faces?
EXAMPLE - BIOMETRICS
Enrollment
Enroll
Validation
A
person arrives
Take data (finger print, iris, face)
Compare with database
If matched with an individual Allow
Else - Decline
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EXAMPLE - BIOMETRICS
Enrollment
http://www.idteck.com/support/biometrics.asp
EXAMPLE
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EXAMPLE - BIOMETRICS
Challenge
How
EXAMPLE - BIOMETRICS
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EXAMPLE - BIOMETRICS
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EXAMPLE - BIOMETRICS
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EXAMPLE - BIOMETRICS
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High security
cannot
afford FAR
Balance
User comfort Lesser
False Rejections
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REFERENCES
http://www.intuitor.com/statistics/T1T2Errors.html
http://www.fingerprint-it.com
http://fingerchip.pagesperso-orange.fr
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