Probability Basic Concepts

Probability
The study of the occurrence of random events or phenomena.
It does not deal with guarantees, but with the likelihood of an
occurrence of an event.

Experiment:
- Any observation or measurement of a random phenomenon.

Outcomes:
- The possible results of an experiment.

Sample Space:
- The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

Event:
- A particular collection of possible outcomes from a sample space.

Probability Basic Concepts

Example:
If a single fair coin is tossed, what is the probability that it will land
heads up?
Sample Space: S = {h, t}
Event of Interest: E = {h}
P(heads) = P(E) =

/2

The probability obtained is theoretical as no coin was actually

flipped

Theoretical Probability:
P(E) =

number of favorable outcomes

total number of outcomes

n(E)
n(S)

Probability Basic Concepts

Example:
A cup is flipped 100 times. It lands on its side 84 times, on its
bottom 6 times, and on its top 10 times. What is the probability
that it lands on it top?
P(top) =

number of top outcomes

total number of flips

10
100

1
10

The probability obtained is experimental or empirical as the cup

was actually flipped.

Empirical or Experimental Probability:

P(E)

number of times event E occurs

number of times the experiment was performed

Probability Basic Concepts

Example:
There are 2,598,960 possible five-card hand in poker. If there are
36 possible ways for a straight flush to occur, what is the
probability of being dealt a straight flush?
P(straight flush) =

number of possible straight flushes

total number of five-card hands
36
2,598,960

0.0000139

This probability is theoretical as no cards were dealt.

Probability Basic Concepts

Example:
A school has 820 male students and 835 female students. If a
student is selected at random, what is the probability that the
student would be a female?
P(female) =

=
P(female) =

number of possible female students

total number of students
835
820 + 835

835
1655

167
331

0.505

This probability is theoretical as no experiment was performed.

11.2 Probability Events Involving Not and Or

Properties of Probability
1. The probability of an event is between 0 and 1, inclusive.
2. The probability of an impossible event is 0.
3. The probability of a certain event is 1.
Examples:
Rolling a fair die, what is the probability of each event?
a) The number 3 is rolled.

P(3) = 1/6

b) A number not 3 is rolled.

P(not 3) = 5/6

c) The number 9 is rolled.

P(9) = 0

Probability Events Involving Not and Or

Events Involving Not
Probability of a Complement
The probability that an event E will not occur is equal to one minus the
probability that it will occur.
P(E) = 1 P(E)
P(not E) = 1 P(E)
Other forms of the equation:
P(E) + P(E) = 1
P(E) = 1 P(E)
What is the probability of not drawing an ace from a standard deck of 52
cards?
P(not an ace) = 1 P(ace)
P(not an ace) = 1 (4/52)
P(not an ace) = 48/52 = 12/13

Probability Events Involving Not and Or

Events Involving Or
The probability that one event or another event will occur usually
involves the union and addition.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive events if they have no
outcomes in common.
Mutually exclusive events can not occur simultaneously
Addition Rule of Probability (for A and B)
If A and B are any two events, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Probability Events Involving Not and Or

Examples:
1. What is the probability of drawing a king or a diamond from a
standard deck of 52 cards?

P(king or diamond) =
=
=

P(K) + P(D) P(K and D)

4/52 + 13/52 1/52
16/52 = 4/13

Probability Events Involving Not and Or

Examples:
2. What is the probability of a 2 or an odd number being rolled on a fair
die?

Mutually exclusive events

P(2 or odd) =
P(2) + P(odd)
=
1/6 + 3/6
=

4/6 = 2/3

Probability Summary
The probability of union of two events (points
belonging to A or B or Both) is given by:
P(AB) = P(A)+P(B) P(AB)
Here, P (A) is the probability of event A,
P (B) is the probability of event B.
Also, P(AB) is the probability of the intersection of
eventsA and B.( Intersection - Points belonging to both A
and B)

When AandB are two independent or mutually

exclusive events that is the occurrence of event
A does not affect the occurrence of event B at
all, in such a case, P(AB)= 0 and hence we
have,

P(AB) = P(A)+P(B)

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Independent events
one event has no influence on the
outcome of another event
if events A & B are independent
then P(A&B) = P(A)*P(B)

if P(A&B) = P(A)*P(B)
then events A & B are independent

coin flipping
if P(H) = P(T) = .5 then
P(HTHTH) = P(HHHHH) =
.5*.5*.5*.5*.5 = .55 = .03
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Probability Essentials
Each individual
outcome of an
experiment is
called
a. the sample
space
b. a sample point
c. an experiment
d. an individual
Sids CQs
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Probability Essentials
Any process that
generates welldefined outcomes
is
a. an event
b. an experiment
c. a sample point
d. a sample space
Sids CQs
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Probability Essentials
The sample space
refers to
a. any particular
experimental outcome
b. the sample size
minus one
c. the set of all
possible experimental
outcomes
d. an event
Sids CQs
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Probability Sample Points

Three applications for
admission to a local
university are checked,
and it is determined
whether each applicant
is male or female. The
number of sample points
in this experiment is
a. 2
b. 4
c. 6
d. 8

Sids AQs
16

Probability Sample Points

Assume your favorite
football team has 2
games left to finish the
season. The outcome of
each game can be win,
lose or tie. The number
of possible outcomes is
a. 2
b. 4
c. 6
d. 9

Sids AQs
17

Assigning Probability
When the assumption of
equally likely outcomes
is used to assign
probability values, the
method used to assign
probabilities is referred
to as the
a. relative frequency
method
b. subjective method
c. probability method
d. classical method

Sids CQs
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Probability Essentials
Which of the
following
statements is
always true?
a. -1=<P(Ei)<= 1
b. P(A) = 1 - P(Ac)
c. P(A) + P(B) = 1
d. P>= 1
Sids CQs
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Probability Essentials
The addition law is
potentially helpful
when we are
interested in
computing the
probability of

Sids CQs

a. independent events
b. the intersection of
two events
c. the union of two
events
d. conditional events
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Probability Essentials
If P(A) = 0.68, P(A U B)
= 0.91, and P(A
(Intersection) B) =
0.35, then P(B) =

a.
b.
c.
d.

0.22
0.09
0.65
0.58

Sids AQs
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Probability Essentials
Given that event E has a
probability of 0.31, the
probability of the
complement of event E
a. cannot be determined
with the above
information
b. can have any value
between zero and one
c. 0.69
d. is 0.31

Sids AQs
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EVENTS Mutually Exclusive

Sids CQs

The intersection of two

mutually exclusive
events
a. can be any value
between 0 to 1
b. must always be
equal to 1
c. must always be
equal to 0
d. can be any positive
value
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Lets Solve Probability

Events A and B are
mutually exclusive
with P(A) = 0.3 and
P(B) = 0.2. Then, P(Bc)
=

a.
b.
c.
d.

0.00
0.06
0.7
0.8

Sids AQs
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EVENTS Independent Events

If two events are
independent, then
a. they must be
mutually exclusive
b. the sum of their
probabilities must be
equal to one
c. their intersection
must be zero
d. None of these
alternatives is correct.
Sids CQs
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Lets Solve Probability

If A and B are
independent events
with P(A) = 0.4 and
P(B) = 0.6, then P(A
B) =
a. 0.76
b. 1.00
c. 0.24
d. 0.20
Sids AQs
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Lets Solve Probability

On a December day, the
probability of snow is .30. The
probability of a "cold" day is .
50. The probability of snow and
"cold" weather is .15. Are snow
and "cold" weather
independent events?
a. only if given that it snowed
b. no
c. yes
d. only when they are also
mutually exclusive

Sids AQs
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Lets Solve Probability

If A and B are
independent events with
P(A) = 0.2 and P(B) =
0.6, then P(A B) =
a. 0.62
b. 0.12
c. 0.60
d. 0.68

Sids AQs
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Lets Solve Probability

If A and B are
independent events
with P(A) = 0.05 and
P(B) = 0.65, then P(A
B) =
a. 0.05
b. 0.0325
c. 0.65
d. 0.8
Sids AQs
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Lets Solve Probability

If A and B are mutually
exclusive events with
P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) =
0.5, then P(A B) =
a. 0.30
b. 0.15
c. 0.00
d. 0.20

Sids AQs
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Lets Solve Probability

If P(A) = 0.50, P(B) =
0.60, and P(A B) =
0.30, then events A and
B are
a. mutually exclusive
events
b. not independent
events
c. independent events
d. not enough
information is given to
answer this question

Sids AQs
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Lets Solve Probability

Gender
Male (M)

Female (F)

Promoted (P)

288

36

Not Promoted
(NP)

672

204

Total

Total

1200

Promotion Status of Police Officers over the past TWO years:

1.
2.
3.
4.

P(P) ; P(NP) ; P(M) ; P (F) --- Marginal Probability

P(M.P); P(M.NP); P(F.P); P(F.NP) ---- Joint Probability
P(P/F); P(NP/F); P(P/M); P(NP/M) --- Conditional Probability
P(F/P); P(F/NP); P(M/P);P(M/NP) --- Conditional Probability
STATISTICAL DEPENDENCE

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Solve This!!!
Educational Qualifications
Gender

Under
Graduate (U)

Graduate (G)

Male (M)

150

450

Female (F)

150

250

Total

Total
1.
2.
3.

P(U) ; P(G) ; P(M) ; P (F)

P(UF); P(UM); P(FU); P(MU)
P(U/F); P(U/M)

https://www.ted.com/talks/hannah_fry_the_mathematics_of_love

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Probability Summary
Joint Probability Multiplication Rule
Mutually Exclusive Events:
P(AandB) = 0
Independent Events
P(AandB) = P(A)P(B)
Dependent Events
P(AandB) = P(A)P(B | A)

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Probability : Events under Statistical Independence and

Dependence
Type of
probability

Symbol

Statistical
Independenc
e

Statistical
Dependence

Marginal (or )
Unconditional

P(A)

P(A)

Sum of
probabilities of
the joint
events in
which A occurs

Joint

P(AB) (or)
P (A and B)
(or) P(A

P(A) x P (B)

P(A|B) x P (B)

P(BA) (or)
P (B and A)
(or) P(B

P(B) x P (A)

P(B|A) x P(A)

P(B|A)

P(B)

P(AB)/ P(A)

P(A|B)

P(A)

P(AB)/ P(B)

Conditional

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Probability : Solve this!!!

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PRACTICE MAKETH PERFECT

PRACTICE and RECAP

Refer: Text Book.
Ch 4 :
Page No 214 - 215 - Conceptual
Questions
Page No 212 4 Level A & 2 Level B.
P215 219: - 3 Level A Qs & 2 Level B
Qs.
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