DISASTER

MANAGEMENT
SEMINAR

NATURAL HAZARD
PREDICTION

NATURAL HAZARDS
A hazard is a dangerous condition or
event, that threat or has the potential for
causing injury to life or damage to
property or the environment.
Natural hazards are hazards which are
caused due to natural conditions which
maybe of meteorological, geological or
biological origin.
Example:earthquakes,volcanic eruptions,
tsunami,floods,etc.
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PREDICTION AND WARNING

To protect people from injury

and death
To reduce damages and
economic losses
pre requisite for taking
preparedness measure to
respond to the disaster

HAZARD PREDICTION IN
INDIA

EARTHQUAKES

The shaking of the

surface of the earth,
resulting from sudden
release of energy in
earths crust that
creates seismic waves.
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PREDICTION METHODS
Animal behavior
animals display unusual behavior prior to a
quake .
as response to the P-waves traveling
through the ground about twice as fast as
the S-waves that cause most severe
shaking.
also triggered by foreshock activity at
magnitudes that most people do not
notice.
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Changes in Vp/Vs
Vp is the symbol for the velocity of a
seismic "P" (primary or pressure)
wave passing through rock.
Vs is the symbol for the velocity of
the "S" (secondary or shear) wave.
the ratio of these two velocities
represented as Vp/Vs changes when
rock is near the point of fracturing.

Radon emissions
Most rock contains small amounts of
gases that can be isotopically
distinguished from the normal
atmospheric gases.
It is released due to pre-seismic
stress or fracturing of the rock.
Radon is radioactive and thus easily
detected.

Seismicity pattern
The occurrence of foreshocks.
A foreshock is a smaller earthquake
that can strike minutes or days
before a larger one.
foreshocks happen because of the
constant buildup of pressure along
the fault lines.

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TROPICAL CYCLONES
areas of very low atmospheric
pressure over tropical and subtropical waters which build up into a
huge, circulating mass of wind and
thunderstorms up to hundreds of
kilometers across.
The intensity of a tropical cyclone is
determined by the strength of the
surface winds near the centre
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PREDICTION
satellite analysis plays an important
role in locating the centers of tropical
cyclones.
Satellite pictures are now received at
hourly intervals and form a near realtime observational basis for tracking
tropical cyclones.
The appearance of a well-formed eye
is a definite indicator of where the
storm is.

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 radars are for detecting tropical

cyclones depending on the
wavelength, power, and the
height of the location of the
scanner.
The India Meteorological
Department (IMD) has
operationalized a state-of-the-art
mesoscale model (WRF system)
for tropical cyclone prediction
over the Indian seas.
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TSUNAMI
a series of water waves caused by
the displacement of a large volume
of a body of water, usually an ocean.
result of abrupt deformation of sea
floor resulting vertical displacement
of the overlying water.

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Tsunami warning
Post tsunami dated 26th December, 2004,
Ministry of Earth Sciences has established
the Indian National Tsunami Warning
System at Indian National Centre for Ocean
Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad.
. The Centre gives information to all
responders about the origin, time, location
of the epicenter, magnitude and depth of
an earthquake inside the ocean and
accordingly issues bulletins.
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 The system is capable of

detecting all earthquake events
of more than 6 Magnitude
occurring in the Indian Ocean in
less than 20 minutes of
occurrence and first report on
the occurrence of an earthquake
in India and the Indian Ocean
region to sent to MHA within 2530 minutes indicating the
location and magnitude of the
earthquake.

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 A prolonged period of relatively dry

weather leading to drought is a
widely recognized climate anomaly.
Study is done in regional and global
patterns of climate variability to
predict the drought scenario.

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FLOODS AND FLASH

FLOODS
The flood forecasting and warning
system is used for alerting the likely
damage centre well in advance of
the actual arrival of floods, to enable
the people to move and also to
remove the moveable property to
safer places or to raised platforms
specially constructed for the
purpose.
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 The flood forecasting involves the

following four main activities:
(i) observation and collection of
hydrological and hydro meteorological
data,
(ii) transmission of Data to forecasting
centres,
(iii) analysis of data and formulation of
forecast, and
(iv) Dissemination of forecast.

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Landslide or mudslide (mudflow)

The GSI(Geological survey of India) was

designated as nodal agency for coordinating
geological studies, landslides hazard zonation,
monitoring landslides, avalanches, studying the
factors responsible and suggesting
precautionary and preventive measure.
Study of Land Contour GSI studies the shape
and material of the land getting inundated and
generates data on area, shape, slope,
infiltration and permeability of soil of the basin,
drainage pattern, landform and longitudinal
and cross profiles of the channels.
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THANK YOU
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