CAUSALITY BETWEEN FOREIGN

PORTFOLIO INFLOWS AND

ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE
FROM CHINA AND INDIA
Economics Presentation
By;
M.Osman Siddiqui (01-122151-005)
Introduction
FPI is helpful to increase the depth and breadth of secondary market and
enhances the market efficiency in developing nations.
Increasing demand of foreign investors, the price earnings ratio increases
in the host country and companies are able to raise capital at low cost.
Low cost of capital enables the local companies to expand and diversify
their production and leads towards GDP growth.
FPI helps to finance the deficit of balance of payment and preserve the
foreign currency reserves.
FPI is a passive investment by overseas investors in shares, debentures
and other financial assets.
Transparency in the stock market and good governance leads towards
economic stability and an increase in GDP growth.
Higher GDP growth results into higher amount of FPI inflows.
Research Problem

Addressing the causal relationship of GDP and FPI.

Since no previous study has focused on the comparative study of

India and China.

We aim to fill this research gap because China and India are Asian
giants and both are ranked among the world fastest growing
economies.
Type of Data Used

Secondary Research
The data set consists of annual observations of GDP, FPI, FDI,
exchange rate and openness of country from 2001 to 2013.
GDP data is collected from the World Bank.
The source for FDI and openness data is United Nation Conference on
Trade and Development UNCTAD, and consists of total FPI inflows.
FPI data are collected from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment
Survey (CPIS) of International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Summary

GDP Growth effects FPI

GDP comments on the economic stability of the government
FPI increases your price earnings ratio
Increased FPI resonance decreases the cost of capital
Low cost of capital gives the host country companies to diversify their
product offerings and minimize risk
More FPI means, more Foreign currency reserves & Foreign currency
reserves leads to a low Exchange Rate.
Conclusion

Merits of FPI include market efficiency, capital for the newly

established corporations and financing the deficit of balance of
payments etc.
The results of Granger Causality test illustrate that there is no direct
causal relationship between both variables.
There is indirect causal relationship between GDP growth and FPI
inflows of China and India i.e. GDP granger causes FDI and the latter
causes FPI.
This study has a definite clue towards indirect causal relationship
between GDP growth and FPI, which shows that China and India needs
sustainable economic growth in the future in order to attract the
portfolio inflows.
Reference

Ahmad, F., Yang, S. C., & Draz, M. U. (2015). Causality between

Foreign Portfolio Inflows and Economic Growth: Evidence from China
and India.International Journal of Economics and Finance,7(10), p163.