The Asian rubber industry:

perspectives for
consumption, production and
prices
ASEAN +3 Rubber Conference
Phuket, Thailand
10-12 April 2013

Dr. Hidde Smit

 This presentation

Five parts:
Aggregate rubber consumption
Analysis and perspectives for natural rubber
production potential
Market developments, oil prices and natural
and synthetic rubber prices
Natural rubber consumption and production
Potential scenarios and strategies
 Part 1.

Aggregate rubber consumption

 World rubber consumption,
% annual growth
IRSG Smit IRSG Smit

2011 4.1 (4.3) 4.3 2017 3.4 3.5

2012 0.2 (-0.2) -0.2 2018 3.1 3.3
2013 5.3 4.4 2019 3.2 3.4
2014 5.8 4.9 2020 3.3 3.5
2015 5.0 4.1 2021 3.2 3.4
2016 3.9 3.8 2022 3.1 3.3
IRSG :World Rubber Industry Outlook, December 2012, in
brackets updates as in Rubber Statistical Bulletin 2013-1
Smit: March 2013
Total rubber consumption
Total rubber consumption
Total rubber consumption
Growth of total rubber usage
 Part 2. Analysis and
perspectives for NR production
potential

A general framework for natural rubber

supply analysis is presented
The trend in production will be called
normal production
Production exceeds normal production at
high prices
And vice versa
 Normal production levels are
analysed using the vintage
approach
The vintage approach derives and includes
per country
The composition of the total area for
natural rubber according to the year of
planting (the vintages)
The average yield profile for a hectare of
rubber during its life
Technical progress in quality of clones
affecting yield profiles of hectares planted
in various years
 Natural rubber planting,
Thailand
source data: country statistics, Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and
own estimates
Natural rubber area (000 ha) and
production (000 tonnes), Thailand
 Natural rubber planting,
Indonesia
source data: country statistics, Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and
own estimates
Natural rubber area (000 ha) and
production (000 tonnes),
Indonesia
 Natural rubber planting,
Malaysia
source data: country statistics, Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and
own estimates
Natural rubber area (000 ha) and
production (000 tonnes), Malaysia
 Natural rubber planting, India
source data: country statistics, Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and
own estimates
Natural rubber area (000 ha) and
production (000 tonnes), India
 Natural rubber planting,
Vietnam
source data: country statistics, Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and
own estimates
Natural rubber area (000 ha) and
production (000 tonnes), Vietnam
 Natural rubber planting, China
source data: country statistics, Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and
own estimates
Natural rubber area (000 ha) and
production (000 tonnes), China
 Natural rubber planting,
Cambodia
source data: country statistics, Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and
own estimates
Natural rubber area (000 ha) and
production (000 tonnes),
Cambodia
 Natural rubber planting,
Philippines
source data: country statistics, Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and
own estimates
Natural rubber area (000 ha) and
production (000 tonnes),
Philippines
 Natural rubber planting,
Myanmar
source data: country statistics, Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and
own estimates
Natural rubber area (000 ha) and
production (000 tonnes),
Myanmar
Natural rubber production, Laos
Global NR normal production to
reach 18.5 million t. by 2025;
actual production may be higher
or lower depending on prices
Growth in normal production of
NR
 Part 3.

Market developments, oil

prices and natural and
synthetic rubber prices
 Future growth in total rubber
consumption (IRSG) and normal
production of NR
 Developments in NR and SR
prices:

NR prices based on supply and

demand

SR prices largely based on costs

with a little influence of the
market
 The price of oil,
forecasts based on US-EIA
The price of Butadiene, supply
constraints may push the price
higher
 SBR prices, increasing to $4.00 in
2025; NR prices declining to $2.20 and
recovering to $3.75
 NR share in consumption,
increasing to maximum 47%
 Part 4.

Natural rubber consumption

and production
Natural rubber consumption
Natural rubber consumption
Natural rubber consumption
World rubber consumption
2025:
NR 19.3, SR 22.2, total 41.5
Natural rubber production
Natural rubber production
 Part 5.

Potential scenarios and

strategies
 Buffer stocks

The Thailand government bufferstock is

estimated at 200,000 tonnes by the end of
2012.

This scenario assesses the potential effect of

an additional purchase of 200,000 tonnes in
2013; the accumulated 400,000 tonnes to be
disposed evenly during 2014 and 2015.
 NR prices and BS:
prices 2012: +0.28, 2013: +0.29,
2014: -0.26, 2015: -0.21, 2016: +0.27
Enhanced replanting program for
Thailand
 Average age at uprooting,
Thailand
base down to 29.5 years, scenario
28 years
 Replanting, Thailand
a total of 80,000 ha more during 2013-
2016
Normal production, Thailand
NR prices
Lower normal production for Thailand
if planting data from IRSG are used
 New planting, Thailand
source: Association of Natural Rubber Producing
Countries (ANRPC), International Rubber Study Group
(IRSG), forecasts by Smit
 Rubber area, Thailand
source: Association of Natural Rubber Producing
Countries (ANRPC), International Rubber Study Group
(IRSG), forecasts by Smit
 Normal production, Thailand
estimates and forecasts by Smit, using ANRPC data and
IRSG data respectively
NR prices
Thank
you!