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DEPARTMENT OF NURSING
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16
14
12
10
0
6.95 8.95 10.95 12.95 14.95 16.95
1-19 times 32 7 39
20-99 times 18 20 38
more than 100 times 25 9 34
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 75 36 111
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bio - Lecture note, G/her B (BSc, MSc, AssProf) 59
Questions
1. What is the probability of a person randomly picked
is a male?
2. What is the probability of a person randomly picked
uses cocaine more than 100 times?
3. Given that the selected person is male, what is the
probability of a person randomly picked uses cocaine
more than 100 times?
4. Given that the selected person is female, what is the
probability of a person has used cocaine less than
100 times?
5. What is the probability of a person randomly picked
is a male and uses cocaine more than 100 times?
Bio - Lecture note, G/her B (BSc, MSc, AssProf) 60
Answers:
1. Pr(m)=Total adult males/Total adult cocaine users =75/111
=0.68
3. Pr (c>100\m)=25/75=0.33.
4. Pr(f\c<100)=(7+20)/36=27/36=0.75.
a. Binomial distribution:
Dichotomous variable: a nominal variable with only
two possible values
The two mutually exclusive outcomes - referred as
failure and success.
Bio - Lecture note, G/her B (BSc, MSc, AssProf) 63
A random variable of this type is known as a
Bernoulli random variable:
E.g. Let X represents smoking status; X=1 smoker and X=0
non-smoker. The two outcomes are mutually exclusive.
Take the case of USA; in 1987, 29% of the adults in USA were
smokers, therefore Pr (X=1) = 0.29 and
Pr (X=0) = 1-0.29 = 0.71.
Suppose randomly select two individuals in USA, see
the smoking status of the two persons.
What is the probability
That both are non smokers?
One is a smoker?
Both are smokers?
Bio - Lecture note, G/her B (BSc, MSc, AssProf) 64
If Pr(X=1)=p and pr (X=0) = 1- p, then the above can
Outcome of X
Person1 Person2 Probability No of smokers
__________________________________________________
0 0 (1- p)(1- p) = 0.710.71=0.50 0
0 1 (1- p) p = 0.710.29=0.21 1
1 0 p (1- p) = 0.290.79=0.21 1
1 1 p p = 0.29 0.29=0.08 2
______________________________________________________
_________
Pr (X=success) = Pr (X=1) = p
Pr (X=failure) = Pr (X=0) = 1-p
The probability P(X=x) that outcome X occurs exactly x
times is:
Pr (X= x) = n! p x (1- p) n- x
x ! (n- x )! ,
Study subjects
The actual participants in the study
Sample
Subjects who are selected
Sampling Frame
The list of potential subjects from which the sample is drawn
Source population
The Population from whom the study subjects would be obtained
Target population
The population to whom the results would be applied
Definitions:
Population: a largest collection of interests
Sample: part of the population
Parameter: Characteristics of population
(fixed number, do not know its value).
Statistic: Characteristics in a sample (value is
known, can change from sample to sample).
We often use statistic to estimate unknown
parameter.
Bio - Lecture note, G/her B (BSc, MSc, AssProf) 94
What is Sampling Distribution?
In order to make an inference, one has to know
some assumptions of the statistic.
The sampling distribution is defined as the
distribution of all possible values which can be
taken by the statistic.
Formed by calculating statistic for each
samples of the same size drown randomly.
The frequency distribution of all these samples
forms the sampling distribution .
E.g. age at the time of death, US population 1979-1981.
Decision of the
hypothesis testing
Accept H0 Reject H0
Null H0 True Correct Type I
Hypothes error
is
H0 False Type II Correct
error
The probability of committing type I error is denoted as .
It is also called the Level of significance.
The probability of committing type two error is denoted as .
Bio - Lecture note, G/her B (BSc, MSc, AssProf) 11
7
One and Two Tailed Hypothesis :
Some hypotheses test whether one value is different
from another or not, without additionally
predicting which will be higher:
Non-directional or two-tailed test
X
t
S / n
Example 1: Researchers are interested in the mean
level of some enzyme in a certain population. They
want to know whether they can conclude that the mean
enzyme level in this population is different from 25.
1
Bio - Lecture note, G/her B (BSc, MSc, AssProf) 14
2
B. Unknown variance (small sample size n<30):
A 100(1-) % C.I. for is:
The reliability coefficient for CI is the t distribution
with n-1 degree of freedom
S S S
x t x t / 2 ,n1 , x t / 2,n1
2
,n 1 n n n
Decision of the
hypothesis testing
Accept H0 Reject H0
Null H0 True Correct Type I
Hypothes error
is
H0 False Type II Correct
error
The probability of committing type I error is denoted as .
It is also called the Level of significance.
The probability of committing type two error is denoted as .
Bio - Lecture note, G/her B (BSc, MSc, AssProf) 15
0
One and Two Tailed Hypothesis :
Some hypotheses test whether one value is different
from another or not, without additionally
predicting which will be higher:
Non-directional or two-tailed test
X
t
S / n
Example 1: Researchers are interested in the mean
level of some enzyme in a certain population. They
want to know whether they can conclude that the mean
enzyme level in this population is different from 25.
Example.2
Serum Amylase level determination was made on a
sample of 15 apparently health subjects. The
sample yielded the mean of 96 units/100 ml and a
standard deviation of 35 units /100 ml.
The variance of the population was unknown. We
want to know wheter we can conclude that the
mean of the population is different from 120
units/100 ml.
Bio - Lecture note, G/her B (BSc, MSc, AssProf) 16
5
Step 1 and 2: Define the Ho and H1. Sample was
selected. H o : 120 H 1 : 120
expected
x frequencies,
2
e
i
the more likely
i
i 1 i
the H0 is true.
row total for the cell x column total for the cell
e
grand total
k
(Oi ei ) 2
x
2
i 1 ei
Case definition:
Confirmed/definite: a case with laboratory verification.
Probable: a case with typical clinical features, without
laboratory confirmation.
Possible : a case presented with fewer of the typical clinical
features
Case definition:
Confirmed/definite: a case with laboratory verification.
Probable: a case with typical clinical features, without
laboratory confirmation.
Possible : a case presented with fewer of the typical clinical
features