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To accompany
Quantitative Analysis for Management, Eleventh
Edition, by Render, Stair, and Hanna
Power Point slides created by Brian Peterson
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Fundamental Concepts
2.3 Mutually Exclusive and Collectively
Exhaustive Events
2.4 Statistically Independent Events
2.5 Statistically Dependent Events
2.6 Revising Probabilities with Bayes
Theorem
2.7 Further Probability Revisions
0 P (event) 1
0 40 0.20 (= 40/200)
1 80 0.40 (= 80/200)
2 50 0.25 (= 50/200)
3 20 0.10 (= 20/200)
4 10 0.05 (= 10/200)
Total 200 Total 1.00 (= 200/200)
Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. p
Diversey Paint Example
Demand for white latex paint at Diversey Paint and
Supply
Notice thehas always been either 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4
individual
gallons perare
probabilities dayall between 0
and 1 the past 200 days, the owner has observed
Over
the following frequencies of demand
0 Pof
And the total (event) 1
all event
QUANTITY equals 1
probabilities
DEMANDED NUMBER OF DAYS PROBABILITY
outcomes 4 1
/6
of the roll 5 1
/6
of a die. 6 1
/6
Total 1
Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. p
Drawing a Card
Draw one card from a deck of 52 playing cards
MUTUALLY COLLECTIVELY
DRAWS
EXCLUSIVE EXHAUSTIVE
1. Draws a spade and a club Yes No
2. Draw a face card and a Yes Yes
number card
3. Draw an ace and a 3 Yes No
4. Draw a club and a nonclub Yes Yes
5. Draw a 5 and a diamond No No
6. Draw a red card and a No No
diamond
P (A and B)
4 balls
White (W) 4
and Probability (WL) =
10
Lettered (L)
2 balls
The urn White (W) 2
contains 10 Probability (WN) =
and 10
balls: Numbered (N)
3 balls
Yellow (Y) 3
Probability (YL) =
and 10
Lettered (L)
Figure 2.3
1 ball Yellow (Y) 1
and Numbered (N) Probability (YN) =
10
Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. p
When Events Are Dependent
P (YL) 0.3
P (L | Y) = P (Y) = 0.4 = 0.75
Prior
Probabilities
Bayes Posterior
Process Probabilities
New
Information
Figure 2.4
Table 2.2
Given a 3 was rolled:
STATE OF P (B | STATE PRIOR JOINT POSTERIOR
NATURE OF NATURE) PROBABILITY PROBABILITY PROBABILITY
Fair die 0.166 x 0.5 = 0.083 0.083 / 0.383 = 0.22
Loaded die 0.600 x 0.5 = 0.300 0.300 / 0.383 = 0.78
P(3) = 0.383
Table 2.3
P ( B | A) P ( A)
P( A | B)
P ( B | A) P ( A) P ( B | A ) P ( A )
where
A the complement of the event A;
for example, if A is the event fair die,
then A is loaded die.
RANGE OF
EXPERIMENT OUTCOME RANDOM VARIABLES RANDOM
VARIABLES
Students Strongly agree (SA) 5 if SA 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
respond to a Agree (A) 4 if A..
questionnaire Neutral (N) X= 3 if N..
Disagree (D) 2 if D..
Strongly disagree (SD) 1 if SD
One machine Defective Y= 0 if defective 0, 1
is inspected 1 if not defective
Not defective
Consumers Good 3 if good. 1, 2, 3
respond to Average Z= 2 if average
how they like a Poor 1 if poor..
product
Table 2.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
P (X)
0.1
| | | | | |
Figure 2.5
1 2 3 4 5
X
Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. p
Probability Distribution for
Dr. Shannons Class
0.1
Figure 2.5
| | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5
X
Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. p
Expected Value of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
The expected value is a measure of the central
tendency of the distribution and is a weighted
average of the values of the random variable.
n
E X X i P X i
i 1
X 1 P X 1 X 2 P ( X 2 ) ... X n P ( X n )
where
X i = random variables possible values
P ( X i ) = probability of each of the random variables
n possible values
= summation sign indicating we are adding all n
i 1 possible values
E ( X ) = expected value or mean of the random sample
Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. p
Expected Value of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
For Dr. Shannons class:
n
E X X i P X i
i 1
where
X i = random variables possible values
E ( X ) = expected value of the random variable
[ X i E ( X )]= difference between each value of the random
variable and the expected mean
P ( X i ) = probability of each possible value of the
random variable
Variance 2
where
= square root
= standard deviation
Variance 2
where
= square
Forroot
Dr. Shannons class:
= standard deviation
Variance
1.29 1.14
Program 2.1A
Program 2.1B
| | | | | | |
5.06 5.10 5.14 5.18 5.22 5.26 5.30
Weight (grams)
Figure 2.6
n!
Probability of r successes in n trials p r q n r
r ! ( n r )!
Thus
5!
P (4 successes in 5 trials) 0.54 0.55 4
4!(5 4)!
5( 4 )(3)(2)(1)
(0.0625 )(0.5 ) 0.15625
4(3)(2)(1)(1! )
0.3
Probability P (r)
0.2
0.1
| | | | | | |
Figure 2.7 1 2 3 4 5 6
Values of r (number of successes)
Program 2.2A
Program 2.2B
| | |
40 = 50 60
Smaller , same
| | |
= 40 50 60
Larger , same
| | |
40 50 = 60
Figure 2.8
Same , smaller
Same , larger
Figure 2.9
X
Z
where
X = value of the random variable we want to measure
= mean of the distribution
= standard deviation of the distribution
Z = number of standard deviations from X to the mean,
Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. p
Using the Standard Normal Table
For example, = 100, = 15, and we want to find
the probability that X is less than 130.
X 130 100
Z
15
30
2 std dev = 100
15 P(X < 130) = 15
| | | | | | |
X = IQ
55 70 85 100 115 130 145
X
| | | | | | | Z
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
X 125 100
Z From Appendix A, for Z = 1.25
20
the area is 0.89435.
25 The probability is about
1.25
20 0.89 that Haynes will not
violate the contract.
X 75 100
Z
20
But Appendix A has only
25 positive Z values, and the
1.25
20 probability we are looking for
is in the negative tail.
X 75 100
Z Because the curve is
20 symmetrical, we can look at
25 the probability in the positive
1.25 tail for the same distance
20
away from the mean.
= 20 days
Program 2.3A
Program 2.3B
1 +1
a b
2 +2
a b
Figure 2.14 3 +3
a b
F
Figure 2.15
This means
P(F > 4.39) = 0.05
0.05
F = 4.39
Figure 2.16
Program 2.4A
Program 2.4B
f ( X ) e x
where
X = random variable (service times)
= average number of units the service facility can
handle in a specific period of time
e = 2.718 (the base of natural logarithms)
Figure 2.18
Program 2.5A
Program 2.5B
x e
P( X )
X!
where
P(X) = probability of exactly X arrivals or occurrences
= average number of arrivals per unit of time
(the mean arrival rate)
e= 2.718, the base of natural logarithms
X= specific value (0, 1, 2, 3, ) of the random
variable
Copyright 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. p
The Poisson Distribution
The mean and variance of the distribution are both
.
Expected value =
Variance =
x e
P( X )
X!
2 0 e 2 1(0.1353)
P (0) 0.1353
0! 1
21 e 2 2(0.1353)
P (1) 0.2706
1! 1
2 2 e 2 4(0.1353)
P (2) 0.2706
2! 2
Figure 2.19
Program 2.6A
Program 2.6B