Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
SLIDES . BY
.
John Loucks
.
St. Edwards
. University
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
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Chapter 9
Hypothesis Testing
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Type I and Type II Errors
Population Mean: Known
Population Mean: Unknown
Population Proportion
Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making
Calculating the Probability of Type II Errors
Determining the Sample Size for
a Hypothesis Test About a Population mean
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Hypothesis Testing
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Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
It is not always obvious how the null and alternative
hypotheses should be formulated.
Care must be taken to structure the hypotheses
appropriately so that the test conclusion provides
the information the researcher wants.
The context of the situation is very important in
determining how the hypotheses should be stated.
In some cases it is easier to identify the alternative
hypothesis first. In other cases the null is easier.
Correct hypothesis formulation will take practice.
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Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
Many applications of hypothesis testing involve
an attempt to gather evidence in support of a
research hypothesis.
In such cases, it is often best to begin with the
alternative hypothesis and make it the conclusion
that the researcher hopes to support.
The conclusion that the research hypothesis is tru
is made if the sample data provide sufficient
evidence to show that the null hypothesis can be
rejected.
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Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
Example:
A new teaching method is developed that is
believed to be better than the current method.
Alternative Hypothesis:
The new teaching method is better.
Null Hypothesis:
The new method is no better than the old method
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
Example:
A new sales force bonus plan is developed in an
attempt to increase sales.
Alternative Hypothesis:
The new bonus plan increase sales.
Null Hypothesis:
The new bonus plan does not increase sales.
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Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
Example:
A new drug is developed with the goal of lowering
blood pressure more than the existing drug.
Alternative Hypothesis:
The new drug lowers blood pressure more than
the existing drug.
Null Hypothesis:
The new drug does not lower blood pressure mor
than the existing drug.
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to be
Challenged
We might begin with a belief or assumption that
a statement about the value of a population
parameter is true.
We then using a hypothesis test to challenge the
assumption and determine if there is statistical
evidence to conclude that the assumption is
incorrect.
In these situations, it is helpful to develop the nul
hypothesis first.
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Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to be
Challenged
Example:
The label on a soft drink bottle states that it
contains 67.6 fluid ounces.
Null Hypothesis:
The label is correct. > 67.6 ounces.
Alternative Hypothesis:
The label is incorrect. < 67.6 ounces.
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Summary of Forms for Null and
Alternative Hypotheses about a
Population Mean
The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population mean must take one of the following
three forms (where 0 is the hypothesized value of
the population mean).
H 0: 0 H 0: 0 H 0: 0
H a: 0 H a: 0 H a: 0
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Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Type I Error
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Type II Error
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Type I and Type II Errors
Population Condition
H0 True H0 False
Conclusion ( < 12) ( > 12)
Accept H0 Correct
Type II Error
(Conclude < 12) Decision
Reject H0 Correct
Type I Error
(Conclude > 12) Decision
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
p-Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
The p-value is the probability, computed using the
test statistic, that measures the support (or lack of
support) provided by the sample for the null
hypothesis.
If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of
significance , the value of the test statistic is in th
rejection region.
Reject H0 if the p-value < .
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Suggested Guidelines for Interpreting p-
Values
Less than .01
Overwhelming evidence to conclude Ha is true.
Between .01 and .05
Strong evidence to conclude Ha is true.
Between .05 and .10
Weak evidence to conclude Ha is true.
Greater than .10
Insufficient evidence to conclude Ha is true.
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Lower-Tailed Test About a Population
Mean:
Known
p-Value Approach p-Value < ,
so reject H0.
= .10 Sampling
distribution
x 0
of z
/ n
p-value
z
z = -z = 0
-1.46 -1.28
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Upper-Tailed Test About a Population
Mean:
Known p-Value < ,
p-Value Approach
so reject H0.
Sampling
distribution
x 0 = .04
of z
/ n
p-Value
z
0 z = z=
1.75 2.29
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Critical Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
The test statistic z has a standard normal probability
distribution.
We can use the standard normal probability
distribution table to find the z-value with an
area
of inofthe
The value thelower (or upper)
test statistic tail
that of the
established the
distribution.
boundary of the rejection region is called the
critical value for the test.
The rejection rule is:
Lower tail: Reject H0 if z < -z
Upper tail: Reject H0 if z > z
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Lower-Tailed Test About a Population
Mean:
Known
Critical Value Approach
Sampling
distribution
x 0
of z
Reject H0 / n
Do Not Reject H0
z
z = 1.28 0
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Upper-Tailed Test About a Population
Mean:
Known
Critical Value Approach
Sampling
distribution
x 0
of z
/ n Reject H0
Do Not Reject H0
z
0 z = 1.645
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Steps of Hypothesis Testing
p-Value Approach
4. Use the value of the test statistic to compute the
p-value.
Step 5. Reject H0 if p-value < .
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Steps of Hypothesis Testing
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One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
Example: Metro EMS
The response times for a random sample
of 40
medical emergencies were tabulated. The
sample
mean is 13.25 minutes. The population
The EMS director wants to perform a
standard
hypothesis
deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes.
test, with a .05 level of significance, to
determine
whether the service goal of 12 minutes or less
is
being achieved.
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
p -Value and Critical Value Approaches
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
p Value Approach
p-value
z
0 z = z=
1.645 2.47
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
Critical Value Approach
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Critical Value Approach to
Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
The critical values will occur in both the lower and
upper tails of the standard normal curve.
Use the standard normal probability
distribution
table to find z/2 (the z-value with an area of
The
/2 inrejection rule is:
the upper tailHofifthe
Reject z <distribution).
-z/2 or z > z/2.
0
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
Example: Glow Toothpaste
The production line for Glow toothpaste is
designed to fill tubes with a mean weight of 6
oz.
Periodically, a sample of 30 tubes will be
selected in
Quality
order assurance
to check procedures
the filling process. call for the
continuation of the filling process if the
sample
results are consistent with the assumption
that the
mean filling weight for the population of
toothpaste
tubes is 6 oz.; otherwise the process will be
adjusted.
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
Example: Glow Toothpaste
Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste
tubes
provides a sample mean of 6.1 oz. The
population
Perform a hypothesis test, at the .03 level
standard deviation is believed to be 0.2 oz.
of
significance, to help determine whether the
filling
process should continue operating or be
stopped and
corrected.
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
p Value and Critical Value Approaches
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
p Value Approach
1/2 1/2
p -value p -value
= .0031 = .0031
/2 = /2 =
.015 .015
z
z = -2.74 0 z = 2.74
-z/2 = -2.17 z/2 = 2.17
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
Critical Value Approach
Sampling
distribution
x 0
of z
/ n
z
-2.17 0 2.17
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
Select a simple random sample from the population
x
and use the value of the sample mean to develop
the confidence interval for the population mean .
(Confidence intervals are covered in Chapter 8.)
If the confidence interval contains the hypothesized
value 0, do not reject H0. Otherwise, reject H0.
(Actually, H0 should be rejected if 0 happens to be
equal to one of the end points of the confidence
interval.)
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
The 97% confidence interval for is
x z / 2 6.1 2.17(.2 30) 6.1 .07924
n
or 6.02076 to 6.17924
Because the hypothesized value for the
population mean, 0 = 6, is not in this interval,
the hypothesis-testing conclusion is that the
null hypothesis, H0: = 6, can be rejected.
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Tests About a Population Mean:
Unknown
Test Statistic
x 0
t
s/ n
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Tests About a Population Mean:
Unknown
Rejection Rule: p -Value Approach
Reject H0 if p value <
Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach
H0: Reject H0 if t < -t
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
p -Values and the t Distribution
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Example: Highway Patrol
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One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
Unknown
p Value Approach
Reject H0
Do Not Reject H0
t
0 t =
1.669
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
A Summary of Forms for Null and
Alternative Hypotheses About a
Population Proportion
The equality part of the hypotheses always appear
in the null hypothesis.
In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population proportion p must take one of the
following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized
value of the population proportion).
Test Statistic
p p0
z
p
where:
p0 (1 p0 )
p
n
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Tests About a Population Proportion
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Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
Example: National Safety Council
(NSC)
For a Christmas and New Years week, the
National Safety Council estimated that 500
people
would be killed and 25,000 injured on the
nations
roads. The NSC claimed that 50% of the
A sample of 120 accidents showed that 67
accidents
were
would be caused by drunk driving.
caused by drunk driving. Use these data to
test the
NSCs claim with = .05.
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
p Value and Critical Value Approaches
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Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
Critical Value Approach
Because 1.278 > -1.96 and < 1.96, we cannot reject H0.
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Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making
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Calculating the Probability of a Type II
Error
in Hypothesis Tests About a Population
1. Formulate the null Mean
and alternative hypotheses.
2. Using the critical value approach, use the level of
significance to determine the critical value and
the rejection rule for the test.
. Using the rejection rule, solve for the value of the
sample mean corresponding to the critical value of
the test statistic.
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Calculating the Probability of a Type II
Error
in Hypothesis Tests About a Population
Mean
4. Use the results from step 3 to state the values of
the
sample mean that lead to the acceptance of H0;
thissampling
Using the defines the acceptance
distribution x a value of
of region.
for
satisfying the alternative hypothesis, and the acceptance
region from step 4, compute the probability that the
sample mean will be in the acceptance region. (This is
the probability of making a Type II error at the chosen
level of .)
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Calculating the Probability
of a Type II Error
Example: Metro EMS (revisited)
Recall that the response times for a random
sample
of 40 medical emergencies were tabulated. The
sample
mean is 13.25 minutes. The population standard
The EMS director
deviation wants
is believed to perform
to be a hypothesis test,
3.2 minutes.
with a .05 level of significance, to determine whether or
not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being
achieved.
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Calculating the Probability
of a Type II Error
1. Hypotheses are: H0: and Ha:
2. Rejection rule is: Reject H0 if z > 1.645
3. Value of the sample mean that identifies
the rejection region:
x 12
z 1.645
3.2/ 40
3.2
x 12 1.645 12.8323
40
4. We will accept H0 when x < 12.8323
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Calculating the Probability
of a Type II Error
5. Probabilities that the sample mean will be
in the acceptance region:
12.8323
z
Values of
3.2/ 40 1-
14.0 -2.31 .0104 .9896
13.6 -1.52 .0643 .9357
13.2 -0.73 .2327 .7673
12.8323 0.00 .5000 .5000
12.8 0.06 .5239 .4761
12.4 0.85 .8023 .1977
12.0001 1.645 .9500 .0500
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Calculating the Probability
of a Type II Error
Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error
Observations about the preceding table:
When the true population mean is close to
the null hypothesis value of 12, there is a high
probability that we will make a Type II error.
Example: = 12.0001, = .9500
When the true population mean is far
above
the null hypothesis value of 12, there is a
low
Example: = 14.0, = .0104
probability that we will make a Type II
error.
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Power of the Test
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Power Curve
1.00
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Determining the Sample Size for a
Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
The specified level of significance determines
the
probability of making a Type I error.
By controlling the sample size, the probability of
making a Type II error is controlled.
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Determining the Sample Size for a
Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
Sampling
distribution c
of x when H0:
Reject H0
H0 is true Ha:
and = 0
x
0
Sampling
distribution
of x when
Note: x H0 is false
n
and a > 0
x
c
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Determining the Sample Size for a
Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
( z z ) 2 2
n
( 0 a ) 2
where
z = z value providing an area of in the tail
z = z value providing an area of in the tail
= population standard deviation
0 = value of the population mean in H0
a = value of the population mean used for the
Type II error
Note: In a two-tailed hypothesis test, use z /2 not z
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Determining the Sample Size for a
Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
Lets assume that the director of medical
services makes the following statements
about the
allowable probabilities for the Type I and Type
II
If the mean response time is = 12 minutes, I
errors:
am willing to risk an = .05 probability of
rejecting
If the meanH0.response time is 0.75 minutes over
the specification ( = 12.75), I am willing to
risk a = .10 probability of not rejecting H0.
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Determining the Sample Size for a
Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
= .05, = .10
z = 1.645, z = 1.28
0 = 12, a = 12.75
= 3.2
( z z )2 2
(1.645 1.28)2 (3.2) 2
n 155.75 156
( 0 a ) 2
(12 12.75) 2
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Relationship Among , , and n
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End of Chapter 9
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