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Takashi Yamauchi
Takashi Yamauchi (Dept. of Psychology, Texas A&M University)
(Q1) what mental strategy do people often
employ when they make probabilistic
reasoning?
Inductive reasoning
You can arrive at conclusions about what is
probably true.
Deductive reasoning
Obama is the president of the US.
Only natural-born citizens of the US can serve
as a president of the United States.
Conclusion: Obama is a natural-born US
citizen.
Is this true?
Is this valid?
Premise 1: All Texans love the Spurs.
Premise 2: All people who love the Spurs
hate the Lakers.
Conclusion: All Texans hate the Lakers.
Is this valid?
Is this true?
Logical validity:
A syllogism is valid when its conclusion follows
logically from its premises.
(Q1) what mental strategy do people often
employ when they make probabilistic
reasoning?
Watson four-card problem
Availability, representativeness,
Demo 1:
Which is more prevalent, words that begin
with the letter r, or words in which r is the
third letter?
Demo 2:
For each pair of cases, which cause of death you
consider more likely for people in the US?
Homicide Appendicitis
Auto-train collision Drowning
Measles Smallpox
Botulism Asthma
Asthma Tornado
Appendicitis Pregnancy
Availability heuristics
Demo 1: Which is more prevalent, words that
begin with the letter r, or words in which r is the
third letter?
Pairs of causes of
death are listed below
the graph, with the
least likely cause on
the left. The number in
parentheses on the
right indicates how
many more times more
people were actually
killed by the cause on
the right.
Availability Heuristics
We use our memory of actual instances
for our judgment. So, when we make a
judgment, things that are available in our
mind determine our judgment.
E.g.,
Think of words that begin with r.
Think of words that have r in the third
position?
Which is easier to think of?
90% of success is just showing up.
Woody Allen
http://blog.bplans.com/2008/02/22/90-of-success-
is-just-showing-up/
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Woody_Allen
Murder rate
Finland vs. Dominica vs. Italy
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_perca
p-crime-murders-per-capita
Crime rate
El Paso vs. Colorado Springs vs. Denver
vs. Boston
El Paso (4.57 / 1000)
Colorado Spring (4.9 / 1000)
Denver (5.78 / 1000)
Boston (9.92 / 1000)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_citie
s_by_crime_rate
Representative heuristics
We tend to make judgments based on
resemblance.
Is A likely to be B?
we say yes, to the extent that A resembles
B.
Representative heuristics
Demo 1
We randomly pick one male from the
population of the US. That male, Robert,
wears glasses, speak quietly, and reads a
lot. Is it more likely that Robert is a
librarian or a farmer?
Representative heuristics
The description of Robert as wearing
glasses, speaking quietly, and reading a
lot matched peoples image of a typical
librarian.
Basic idea:
People make decisions in order to maximize
the utility associated with the choice.
buying a car
Honda Accord vs. Mercury Cougar
You have $20,000 to spend.
Honda Accord
Mercury Cougar
Compare the features of the two
cars
Accord is slightly more expensive than Cougar.
Cougar has better horse power than Accord.
Accord has better fuel economy.
Cougar is more stylish than Accord.
Expected utility theory
you choose the one that gives you the maximum
value (the maximum satisfaction you get).
Sum(U(A))> Sum(U(B)) --> select A
what is valuable is subjective.
Expected utility theory
mental arithmetic
seller
buyer
$price
Probability to say
Yes, go for it!!
Dating scene
girl
boy
$ cost
Square one
McDonald
Mr. Gs
Christophers
Caf Excel
KFC
Basic assumption in Economics
Peoples choice behavior is driven to
maximize their self-interest.
Rational analysis
Milton Friedman (2:24)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWsx1X8PV_A
But you see many irrational behaviors.
Dot-com bubble, housing bubble
Why do we make so many irrational
decisions?
People may be rational, but their decision is
very much influenced by many psychological
factors (such as emotion, attention, and
memory)
Behavioral economics
Behavioral economics examines peoples
economic choice behavior from a vantage point of
cognitive psychology.
Behavioral economics. 4:16
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa-mIosWOK8
Interview: NPR Behavioral economics (9:00)
Amos Tversky (1937 1996) Daniel Kahneman (1934 )
Problems with the utility approach
People are not good at predicting their
emotional utility.
Demo
Coglab
Risky decisions
Imagine that the US is preparing for the
outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is
expected to kill 600 people. Two alternatives
programs to combat the disease have been
proposed. Assume that the exact scientific
estimates of the consequences of the programs
are as follows.
Risk-taking strategy
The idea of losing 400 lives with certainty is
less attractive than the risk that a 2 in 3
chance that 600 people will die.
When a problem is framed in terms of
gain, we tend to choose sure things (risk-
aversion strategy).
Game A 84%
Game B 16%
You are given $1000, provided that you
will play either one of the following games.
Which game do you choose?
Game C. asurelossof$750
Game D. 75%chancetolose$1000and25%
chancetolosenothing.
Game C. 13%
Game D. 87%
Imagine that the US is preparing for the
outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is
expected to kill 600 people. Two alternatives
programs to combat the disease have been
proposed. Assume that the exact scientific
estimates of the consequences of the programs
are as follows.
200 saved
400 die
an unusual Asian disease that is expected to kill
600 people.
Program C 400 people will die.
Program D 1 / 3 probability nobody will die,
and 2 / 3 probability 600 people will die.
200 saved
400 die
Game B. 25%chancetogain$1000and75%
chancetogainnothing
ExpectedUtility=$1000*0.25+$0*0.75=$250
Game A 84%
Game B 16%
You are given $1000, provided that you will play
either one of the following games. Which game
do you choose?
Game C. asurelossof$750
ExpectedUtility=$1000$750=$250
Game D. 75%chancetolose$1000and25%chanceto
losenothing.
ExpectedUtility=$1000$1000*0.75$0*0.25=$250
Game C. 13%
Game D. 87%