Lecture 14

Alpha Beta

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The Basic Exploration Questions

Explorations Ultimate Goal is to Answer

Four Questions:

Where to Drill? Location & Depth

What to Expect? HC Volumes

How Certain? Chance of Success (Risk)

How Profitable? Economics

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What We Need for a Success

Correctly
A Rube Goldberg View Placed
of a Hydrocarbon System Wells

A Container
Plumbing To Connect From Which
the Container to the Kitchen Oil & Gas
Can Be
Produced

A Kitchen
Where Organic
Material Is
Cooked

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The Kitchen
A Kitchen
Where Organic
Material Is
Cooked

Source
Organic-Rich Rocks, usually shales
Temperature & Pressure Conditions that
Result in Oil & Gas Generation

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The Container

Reservoir
Porous & Permeable Rock Suitable for
Production
A Container Most Commonly Sandstones & Carbonates
From Which
Oil & Gas Trap
Can Be
Produced 3-D Configuration that Pools the Oil &
Gas
Structural and/or Stratigraphic Traps
Seal
Rocks that Prevents Leakage from the Trap
Most Commonly Shales and Evaporites
Top Seals & Lateral Seals

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The Plumbing

Plumbing To Connect
the Container to the Kitchen

Migration
From source (shales) to porous reservoirs
Strata-Parallel Component (sand & silt layers)
Cross-Strata Component (faults, fractures)

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Other Important Components

Timing
Did the Trap form before HC Migration began?
Fill & Spill
Has HC Generation Exceeded Trap Volume?
Has there been Spillage from Trap to Trap?
Where is the Oil?
Preservation
Has Oil been degraded in the reservoir - thermal
cracking or biodegradation?

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 Petroleum System Elements
0

2
Depth (km)

Oil & Gas

4
Generation
Window

Gas
Generation Source
6 Window Reservoir

No More
Trap & Seal
HC Generation Migration
Gas & Oil
8

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HC Fill & Spill
Oil Spills
1. Early Charge: Some Oil, Minor Gas Trap B Up Fault

2. Peak Charge: Significant Oil, Some Gas

3. Late Charge: No Oil, Significant Gas

Trap A
Fault Leak
Gas Cap Spill Point
Displaces Oil Synclinal
Spill Point

Oil Spilled
from Trap A
to Trap B

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A Prospect
A prospect is a location and depth that has been
identified as a good place to drill for oil and/or gas

For us to find oil or gas, certain conditions must be

meet
There needs to be a source for the oil or gas
The source rocks need to be cooked to the right degree
There needs to be a porous rock to hold the oil or gas
There needs to be a subsurface trapping geometry
There need to be a seal
There needs to be plumbing connecting source and
reservoir

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Prospect Analysis

Our geological and geophysical analysis helps us

identify and characterize prospects in terms of
these critical elements

Geoscientists will work a prospect such that:

The volume of oil or gas that is most likely to be
present and recovered is determined,
The range of possible volumes is estimated
(maximum and minimum cases), and
The chance of success is estimated

All this information is presented to

management
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Overview of Prospect Analysis
Given the geologic framework and the results of our data
analysis, our next task is to analyze and assess viable
prospects:
Analyze prospect elements
Source, Migration, Reservoir, Trap, Seal
Consider the most-likely scenario
Consider other cases - the range of possibilities
Assess the prospect
What volumes of HCs can we expect?
Will it be oil or gas?
Risk the Prospect
What is our level of confidence that all the prospect elements work?

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Outline

1. Define prospect elements

}
2. Estimating trap volume
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk

L14 Prospect Analysis

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Outline

1. Define prospect elements

2. Estimating trap volume Correctly
Placed
Wells
3. HC Type
4. Assessment A Container
From Which
5. Risk Plumbing To Connect
the Container to the Kitchen
Oil & Gas
Can Be
Produced

A Kitchen
Where Organic
Material Is
Cooked

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A Real HC System
Draupne Shale
organic rich
serves as a source rock
Immature

f o rmity
on
Unc
Immature

Heather Shale Oil

Ge
ne
rat
Sognefjord Shale ion

Immature
both organic poor Immature

Oil Generation

Oil
Gas G Spill
Facies
ener ation
Point Change
Fault
Leak
Gas
Gen Point
er atio
n

HC Generation & Expulsion

oil & gas from the Draupne, gas from coals in the Br
Brent Sandstone HC Migration
acts as a reservoir into Brent carrier beds and up faults
HC Fill & Spill
late gas displaces early oil
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Most-Likely Scenario

Alpha Beta

Sea Water

Oil Overburden
Fill & Spill
Seal

Reservoir
Oil
Migration
Source

Basement

Oil
Generation 18 Ma

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Most-Likely Scenario

Alpha Beta

Sea Water

Overburden
Oil
Migration Seal

Reservoir
Oil
Migration
Source

Basement

10 Ma
Oil
Generation

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Most-Likely Scenario

Alpha Beta

Sea Water

Overburden
Oil
Migration Seal

Reservoir
Oil & Gas
Migration
Source

Basement

Oil
Generation Present
Gas
Generation
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Most-Likely Scenario

Alpha Beta

Oil

Oil

18 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
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Most-Likely Scenario

Alpha Beta

Oil
Oil

10 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
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Most-Likely Scenario

Alpha Beta

Gas

Oil Oil

Present
Map of the Reservoir Unit
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Explorations Task

Identify
Opportunities Capture
Prime Areas
Acquire
Seismic Data Drill
Process Wildcats
Seismic Data
Interpret
Seismic Data Failure Success
Assess Confirmation
Prospects Well

1. Volume
Uneconomic Success
2. HC Type
3. Assessment To EMDC
Drop
4. Risk Area or EMPC
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Outline

1. Define prospect elements

2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk

Lets start an exercise

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Exercise 12 Parts 1 - 6

We will do some quick estimates

using a series of simplifying
assumptions

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Consider This .

Lets say our trap in

cross-section view
looks like this.

How can we get a

rough estimate of
Height 1
the cross-sectional Height 2
area?
Base 2

Base 1

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From Area to Volume

Alpha Beta
Volume of a Cone = 1/3 r * h 2

r r

Consider the trap to be

approximately a cone

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Outline

1. Define prospect elements

2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk

DHI Analysis
AVO Analysis
HC Systems Analysis

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Oil or Gas???

Should there be a difference in seismic

Quantitative
response (AVO) between an oil-filled
reservoir and a gas-filled reservoir?
Model response with different rock & fluid
properties

If there should be a difference, which

fluid type does the seismic data support?
Extract amplitudes from near- and far-angle
stacks

From our basin modeling & HC systems

Qualitative
analysis, which fluid type should we
expect
What did the source generate
What did the trap leak or spill

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Model Seismic Responses - Input

10% 20% 30%

Porosity Porosity Porosity

Gas

Oil

Brine

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Model Seismic Responses - Output

10% Porosity 20% Porosity 30% Porosity

Offset Offset Offset

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Model Seismic Responses - Output

AVO Crossplot
0.4 Gas
Oil
10%
Brine
0.2 Shale

20%
Slope

0.0

30%
-0.2

-0.4
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Intercept
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Questions???

Many times the seismic data

will give us clues!

How can we verify this scenario?

To what level are the traps filled with oil & gas?
What would be the value ($) if our scenario is correct?
How much more/less HC could there be?
How risky is this prospect (chance that we are totally
wrong)?

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Seismic Line Across Alpha

Alpha

Fluid Contact?
Gas over Oil?

Fluid Contact?
Oil over Water?

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Outline

1. Define prospect elements

2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk

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Types of Assessments
Once a lead has been high-graded into a prospect,
we have to assess its potential value

Deterministic Assessment
One value for each parameter
One final number, e.g., 200 MBO
Probabilistic Assessment
A range of values for each parameter
A range of outcomes, e.g. 200 50
MBO

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Scenarios & Probabilities
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Alpha Alpha

Gas Cap & Oil Leg Gas Only

40% Chance of Occurrence 20% Chance of Occurrence

Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Alpha Alpha

Oil Only Low Gas Saturation

30% Chance of Occurrence 10% Chance of Occurrence

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Deterministic Prospect Assessment
To Assess a Prospect, We Assign Numbers
to the Parameters related to HC Volumes

In our exercise,
we have assumed ESTIMATES Alpha Beta
the all oil case
1. Gross Rock 2.91 2.12 km3
(Scenario 3)
km3
Volume
2. Reservoir 1.02 0.66 km3
km3
Volume
3. Pore 0.25 0.15 km3
Volume km3
4. In-Place 0.20 0.12 km3
Volume km3
5. In-Place 1280 735 MBO
Barrels MBO
6. EUR 288 132 MBO
Unrisked MBO
7. EUR
Unrisked means everything HC System has worked!
in the MBO
Risked MBO
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Alpha Prospect Assessment Results
Oil Gas Oil-Equivalent
Million Barrels Oil Billion Cubic Ft Gas Million Oil Equivalent Barrels

Scenario 1 162 MBO 97 GCF 178 MOEB

Oil & Gas 6 GCF = 1 MBO

Scenario 2 0 MBO 515 GCF 86 MOEB

Gas Only Uneconomic
Scenario 3 288 MBO 0 GCF 288 MOEB
Oil Only

Scenario 4 0 MBO 0 GCF 0 MOEB

Low Gas Saturation
Uneconomic
Assuming 100 MOEB is needed to make prospect economic
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Probabilistic Assessment

The Goal is to Get A Number and a Range

of Possible Outcomes
We Input a Range of Values for Each
Assessment Parameter
usually minimum, most-likely, maximum
Area Thickness Net:Gross Porosity

Min ML Max

12 20 27

HC Sat. FVF Recovery

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Unrisked Results

Alpha Prospect Unrisked

100%
Excedance Probability

100
80%

60% Economic Minimum

40%

20%

0%

0 100 200 300 400

Million Barrels of Oil

50% Chance of finding 200 MBO or more

75% Chance of finding the economic minimum

L14 Prospect Analysis

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Outline

1. Define prospect elements

2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk

25% Risk

75% Chance of Success

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9 Key Elements of the HC System

Source Reservoir Trap

Quality Presence Quality

Source Reservoir Seal

Maturation Quality Adequacy

HC Biodegra- Not Low Gas

Migration dation Saturation

A team of experts consider these key elements for each prospe

They rate the chance of success (COS) for each on a scale of 0

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COS for Alpha

Alphas biggest risk is that the fault does not

seal.
There is also some risk that the trap holds

}
low gas saturation and that reservoir
Reservoir
quality is poor Presence - - - - 1.0 Some Risk
Reservoir Quality - - - - 0.85
Trap Quality - - - - 1.0 chance of success
Seal Adequacy - - - - 0.8 (COS)
Source Quality - - - - 1.0 0.61
Source Maturation- - - - 1.0
Highest
HC Migration - - - - 1.0 Risk
Not Low Gas Saturation
- 0.9
Biodegradation - - - - 1.0 Some Risk

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Risked Probabilistic Assessment Results

Alpha Prospect Main Compartment - Risked

1.0
100
0.8
Gas Only
61 % COS
Economic Minimum

0.6 Gas Cap & Oil Leg

51 % Chance of
Finding More
0.4
Than the
Oil Only Economic
0.2 Minimum

0.0

0 100 200 300 400 500

Million Oil Equivalent Barrels

72% Chance to find any hydrocarbons

58% Chance to find 100 MBOE
5% Chance to find 400 MBOE
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