Climate Change:

Causes, Consequence
& Response

M. Asaduzzaman
Professorial Fellow, BIDS

Internal Seminar on Climate Change and Paris

Agreement
Dhaka January 10, 2016

January 10, 2016 BIDS Internal Seminar 1

 Climate Change
Three parts discussion
Part I: Climate Change: Causes and
Extent Global and Bangladesh
Part II: Mitigation of & Vulnerability due
to Climate Change and Adaptation
Part III: Global and National Response
Issues in Climate Change talks and the
Paris Agreement

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 Part I
Climate Change:
Causes and Extent
Global and Bangladesh

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 What is Climate Change?
CC is basically a rise in global average
tempr along with rainfall changes
This is due to so called Green House Effect,
part of which is natural, part man made
What is a Green house?
Heat trapping contraption for growing veg in cold
countries
Without the natural GH effect, the Earth
would not have been habitable, but man
made changes have put human existence
itself under threat
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 Green House Effect

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Radiation Received and Retained

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 Manmade GHE
Due to release of several gases which trap
heat
CO2, CH4, N2O, water vapour, other gases
Release occurs due to several human
activities
CO2 from fossil fuel burning for power prodn, transport,
heating (cooking)
Methane from flooded rice, livestock (enteric
fermentation, manure management)
N2O from crop agriculture
CO2 from soil, LULUCF
CO2 is the main GHG but methane and
nitrous oxide are far more powerful in terms
of warming potential
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 Global Warming Trends
Rise in temp
over 100 years
0.740C. Last 50
years decadal
rate of rise
0.026 0C but
doubles to
0.052 0C in last
25 years.
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 GHG Emission (carbon eq)

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 Global Rainfall Changes

Rainfall pattern changes show two

extremes
More frequent and heavier rainfall
Also more frequent and severe drought

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 Rise in GHG Release

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 Types of GHGs

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 Sources of GHGs

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 GHG Emission by Country

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 Emission Trends by Country

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 BD Situation
Total emission from energy in 2005 was
37.9 mn mt with distribution as:

Commercial
1% Residential
12%

Energy Industries
Transport 33%
15%

Mfg & Construction

30% Agriculture
5%

Non-Spec Sector
4%

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 BD Situation 2 2005

CO2 LULUCF
> 18 k mn mt
mainly soil carbon
CH4 Agric 1216 mn mt
CH4 Waste 638 mn mt
N2O Agric 34 mn mt
N2O Waste 4 mn mt
GWP methane 21 times, N2O >300 times

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 Part IIa:
Vulnerability due and Adaptation to
Climate Change

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 How Does Vulnerability Arise?
Temperature rise and rainfall changes
lead to second round physical impacts
These in turn lead to third round human
system impact
Second round impacts include drought
or heavy rain, heat stress, floods, river
bank erosion, cyclones and storm
surges, sea level rise and salinity rise

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 Cyclones and storm
Industry and infr changes
surges Inundation and
beach eriosion
Human habitation
Economic and Salinity ingress in patterns
Sea level rise
livelihood impacts coastal zones Food production
and security
Temperature Polar ice Expansion of Agric and land use Economic and
Human and animal extremes melting water changes livelihood changes
health
Species
migration
Pathogens and vector Temperature rise Carbon enrichment of
borne diseases atmosphere
Biodiversity
Natural and anthropogenic attmospheric Fossil fuel use
Climate change
concentration of GHG

Flooding
Wet paddy culture Drought and heavy
rains

Rainfall runoff changes

Climate Vulnerability Process

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 GHG Emission Path for Future

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 How Will Climate Change?
Scenario for 2100

Temperature rise 1.8 4.0 deg

celsius
Sea level rise 0.18 0.59 metres

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 BD Historical Experience
Annual Max Temperature

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 BD Historical Experience
Annual Min Temperature

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 Av temperature Rise 1948-2010

3.5

2.5
Degrees C

1.5

0.5

0
Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post- Annual
monsoon

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 Trend Change of Av Temperature by
Month
1948-2010 1980-2010

3.5
3

2.5
2
1.5
Decgees C

0.5

-0.5

-1
-1.5
Ja Fe M Ap M Ju Ju Au Se O No De
nu br ar ri l ay ne ly gu pt cto ve ce
ar ua ch st em be m m
y ry be r be be
r r r

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 Incidence of Heavy Rainfall

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 Annual Av Changes in
Temperature and Rainfall in BD

Emission Temperature Change (C) Precipitation (% change)

Scenario 2030s 2050s 2030s 2050s
A2 0. 73 1.32 4.9 8.1
B1 0.78 1.62 6.3 8.4

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 Annual average changes in temperature
and precipitation (A2 scenario, 2050s)

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 Projected Future Monthly Mean
Temperature in BD

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Projected Temperature Changes (0C)
by Division by 2030
DJF MAM JJA SON

1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Ba Ch D K Ra Sy
ris it t ha hu jsh lh
al ag ka ln ah et
o a i
ng

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 Projected Change from Average
Rainfall by 2030 by Division
DJF MAM JJA SON

40

20

0
Percentage

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100
Ba Ch Dh Kh Ra Sy
ris i tta ak uln js lh
al go a a ha et
ng hi

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So What Awaits Bangladesh?
Temp change in deg celsius/ Rainfall change in %
Temp rise
unequivocal; 2030 2050 2100
rainfall change
depends on 14
season. 12
Great uncertainty
10
as very high
dispersion around Temp & Rainfall chnage 8
mean. For
6
example, JJA
rainfall rises by 4
about 12% but st. 2
deviation is about
8. More recent 0
modeling indicate A-T DJF-T JJA-T A-R DJF-R JJA-R
-2
possible failure of
-4
monsoon after
2030
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 Water Availability Index
Changes in Water Availability in 2050
Water surplus
50.00
cells fall and 45.00

deficit cells rise. 40.00

Flood and Percent of total cells 35.00

30.00
drought both 25.00
baseline
HadCM3 A2

more likely. 20.00

PRECIS A2

15.00

R1: no deficit; 10.00

5.00

R5: most deficit 0.00

R1 R2 R3 R4 R5
Water availability index

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 Physical Impacts of CC
Flood
Drought
Salinity ingress due to SLR
Consequent impact on agriculture and
food security, health,

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 Human Systems to be Affected
Water management
Agriculture and food production
Industrial production
Power demand
Infrastructure, human habitation, urban
issues
Health
Demography migration
Disaster management
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 Likely Global Impacts

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 Likely Global Impacts

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 Possible Impact on Cereals
HYVs of all rice to yield less. A 60% moisture
stress may lower yield by as much as 32%
for boro
Rainfed rice output will fall but irrigated rice will
be more important
Slight rise in temperature may be beneficial
to wheat but for higher rise, yield falls
Flood, drought, heat stress, salinity rise and
cyclonic storms all will reduce yield and by
location may lead to partial or total crop
failure- output will therefore be highly
variable leading to price volatility and
inflation
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 Estimated Poverty Impacts of CC
Vulnerability

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 Food Security Impact Channels
of CC
Globalisation and
Food trade trade liberalisation
Budgetary
Input & ag support
support policicy
Wastage in production, Technology Research
storage, processing & and
information extension

Own consu TRIPS

mption Domestic production
Crop choice
Availability
Marketing
Sea level rise -
Yield output salinity ingress Climate change
Price
changes & variability
Natural disasters
Access & sudden shocks
Food Physical
security Temperature & rainfall anomaly
Vulnerable groups

Spatial & seasonal

Household
Intrahousehold Paternalistic
Wastage in distribution culture
consumption Economic

Women Maternal
nutrition Food toxicity
Income Pest
Employment pathogen
Adult health Nutrition of attack
outcome processed food
Economic activities,
Utilisation endowments, transfers Food crops nutrient
nutrition Child nutrition content
Excessive use
of pesticides

Cropping & ag system

change

Nutritional quality & safety of food

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 Estimated Losses in Ag GDP

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 Impact on Livestock 1
Much less research compared to crops on livestock
impacts and even less on tropical area livestock
Literature indicates impact on livestock will be
through several pathways
lower availability & quality of fodder, studies indicate lower
forage quality and digestibility and thus lower nutrition for
livestock lowering output
heat stress on animals incl reproductive capacity
possible low water availability,
water salinity in coastal areas,
disease and pathogen attacks
Consequent impact on mortality, morbidity, onset of
large scale epidemics and consequent output loss
(both meat and dairy) as well as draught and similar
services
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 Impact on Livestock 2
Heat stress is probably most important
For mild heat stress, there may be minimal impact
on cattle productivity but for moderate to severe,
there may be substantial decline in milk
production
In India estimates run to 2% reduction in milk
yield amounting to Rs > 2500 cr
For 3-4% rise of temp, severe decline is likely
and even death of animals
Unfortunately little is known about BD
situation as apparently little research has
been done so far on this
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 Impact on Human Health
Vector borne diseases to become more
widespread spatially
Diarrhoea to become more common
So will be kala azar, dengue and
malaria

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 Present & 2050 Diarrhoea
Outbreak

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 Part II b
Mitigation in BD

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 GHG Reduction Potential of the
Different Mitigations Options

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 Cost-effectiveness of
Mitigation Options

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 Part III
Global and BD Response

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 Mile Stones in Climate Change Talks
1979 - 1st world conference on CC
1992 - Rio Summit agrees on UNFCCC
1997 Kyoto Protocol for mitigation by developed
countries minus USA
2007 1/CP13 on Bali Action Plan - AWGLCA
2009 COP 15 in Copenhagen fails to deliver &
leads to mistrust of Convention process
2010 - Cancun restores trust and moves forward
2011 Durban Agreement by 2015
2015 Paris Agreement reached
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 What Are the Issues
At what level should temperature rise be limited?
Who will take the lead in GHG emission reduction?
Convention rules
How much reduction by what time, by whom & what
would be peaking years? INDCs
Will this be enough?
What to do about adaptation? Loss and damage?
How much finance? By whom? What process? GCF
100 bn $/year from 20120
Technology issues; capacity building?
Compliance and penalty
LDC issues/ SIDS issues
Response mechanisms for those affected by the agreement?

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 What Has Paris Delivered
Little by way of actual compuslion to be
based on INDCs which wil not deliver the
temp target but to revisit in 5 years time
Temp goal well below 2 degrees, attempt
for 1.5 degrees
All Parties to mitigate unconditional and
conditional but developed countries will
not mandatorily take the lead
Adaptation to be supported
Finace to be streamlined further
L&D, particular climate displacement
issues to be on board
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 Is This a Good Agreement?
Possibly better than nothing
LDC issues better handled
But global goals of temp rise and
consequent emission reduction will be very
difficult to achieve if not impossible
Historical responsibility of developed
countries no longer an issue while current
major emitting countries also have little
compulsion no compliance or penalty
mechanism
A French Revolution That Was Not

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 BD Preprations for Future
NAPA in 2005
Bali Action Plan with 4 inviolate principles of
security of food, water, energy and livelihood
BCCSAP 2008. 2009 Sixth Plan and 7th Plan
promises
Various technical analyses done such as impact on
agriculture but ad-hoc little by way of economic
analyses and alternatives
PreliminaryTNA done
Loss and damage issues in progress
TNC in final stage before submission
INDC submitted
Funding arrangements BCCTF and BCCRF
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 BD Preparedness Assessment
Mainly report preparations and some works
under two funds
Little by way of coordinated and integrated
attempts generally ad-hoc, add-on attempts
Little analysis of opportunity costs of alternatives
and growth implications
Even no prioritisation of investment proposals
under BCCSAP
Little capacity yet to access GCF funds for
adaptation and other processes

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 THANK YOU

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