Introduction to model

A model is a system that is used as a surrogate

for another system
Reason for using a model
Helps in understanding the behavior of a real system
before it is built
Cost of building and experimenting with a model is
less
Models can be used to mitigate risk pilots can be
taught how to cope with wind sheer while landing
Models have the capability of scale time or space in
favorable manner wind sheer can be produced on
demand

1
 Types of Models
Broadly there are two types
Physical

(Scale models, prototype

plants,)
Mathematical

(Analytical queuing models,

linear programs, simulation)

2
 Building a simulation
gas station
Assume
single pump served by a single service man
arrival of cars as well their service times are random.
At first identify the:
states: number of cars waiting for service and number
of cars served at any moment
events: arrival of cars, start of service, end of service
entities: these are the cars
queue: the queue of cars in front of the pump, waiting
for service
random realizations: inter-arrival times, service times
distributions: we shall assume exponential
distributions for both the inter-arrival time and
service time.

3
 Ten Types of Models
Iconic - physical models that are images of
the real world; dimensions are usually scaled
up or down; for example, models of cars might
be constructed and tested in a wind tunnel
Analog - model that substitutes one set of
properties for another; may be iconic or
mathematical; electric resistance often used
as an analog of the friction of a fluid flowing in
a pipe; this approach is not as widely used as
at one time digital computers have allowed
the development of other modeling techniques
that have replaced analog models

4
 Ten Types of Models
Stochastic - probabilistic model that uses
randomness to account for immeasurable
factors (e.g., weather)
Deterministic - model that does not use
randomness but uses explicit expressions for
relationships that may or may not involve time
rates of change
Discrete - model where state variables
change in steps as opposed to continuously
with time (e.g., number of cattle in a barn);
may be deterministic or stochastic
5
 Ten Types of Models
Continuous - model whose state variables
change continuously with time (e.g., biomass in a
field); usually sets of differential equations used;
initial conditions required (can be difficult to
obtain for some systems!)
Combined - model where some state variables
change continuously and others change in steps
at event times; for example, a field of hay might
be modeled using a combined approach with the
biomass modeled continuously during growth
and then as a discrete event when harvested

6
 Ten Types of Models
Mathematical - abstract model
usually written in equation form
Object-oriented - use objects that are
abstractions of real world objects and
develop relationships and actions
between objects; comes from field of
artificial intelligence
Heuristic - heuristics (rules) are used
to model the system; comes from field
of artificial intelligence.
7
 What is Simulation?
A Simulation of a system is the operation of a
model, which is a representation of that
system.
The model is amenable to manipulation which
would be impossible, too expensive, or too
impractical to perform on the system which it
portrays.
The operation of the model can be studied,
and, from this, properties concerning the
behavior of the actual system can be inferred.

8
 Applications:
Designing and analyzing
manufacturing systems
Evaluating H/W and S/W
requirements for a computer system
Evaluating a new military weapons
system or tactics
Determining ordering policies for an
inventory system
Designing communications systems
and message protocols for them
9
 Applications:(continued)
Designing and operating
transportation facilities such as
freeways, airports, subways, or ports
Evaluating designs for service
organizations such as hospitals, post
offices, or fast-food restaurants
Analyzing financial or economic
systems

10
 Types of Simulation
Models
System model

deterministic stochastic

static dynamic static dynamic

Monte Carlo
simulation

continuous discrete continuous discrete

Continuous Discrete-event Continuous Discrete-event
simulation simulation simulation simulation
11
 Stochastic vs.

Deterministic
Stochastic simulation: a simulation that
contains random (probabilistic) elements, e.g.,
Examples
Inter-arrival time or service time of customers at a
restaurant or store
Amount of time required to service a customer
Output is a random quantity (multiple runs
required to analyze output)
Deterministic simulation: a simulation
containing no random elements
Examples
Simulation of a digital circuit
Simulation of a chemical reaction based on differential
equations
Output is deterministic for a given set of inputs
12
 Static vs. Dynamic
Models
Static models
Model where time is not a significant variable
Examples
Determine the probability of a winning solitaire
hand
Static + stochastic = Monte Carlo simulation
Statistical sampling to develop approximate
solutions to numerical problems
Dynamic models
Model focusing on the evolution of the system
under investigation over time

13
 Continuous vs. Discrete
Discrete
State of the system is viewed as changing at discrete
points in time: arrival of a customer in a queuing
system
An event is associated with each state transition
Events contain time stamp
Continuous
State of the system is viewed as changing
continuously across time: rise if water level in a dam
System typically described by a set of differential
equations
Few systems in practice are wholly discrete or
continuous

14
 Discrete & Continuous
Systems
Essential to remember that
A discrete simulation model is not always used
to model a discrete system
Similarly, a continuous simulation model is not
always used for a continuous system
Simulation models may also be mixed both
discrete and continuous
Choice of discrete or continuous
simulation models is a function of
Characteristics of the system
Objective of the study

15
 Discrete & Continuous
Systems
Communication channel
Modeled as discrete if characteristics of
movement of each message is important
Modeled as continuous if flow of
messages as aggregate over the channel
is important
In this course we will study only
Models that are discrete, dynamic and
stochastic

16
 Discrete event systems
(DES)
DES are dynamic systems which evolve
in time by the occurrence of events at
possibly irregular time intervals
DES abound in real-world applications
Examples include traffic systems
flexible manufacturing systems

computer-communications systems

production lines

flow networks.

17
 Discrete event systems
(DES)
Most of these systems can be
modeled in terms of discrete events
whose occurrence causes the system
to change from one state to another
In designing, analyzing and operating
such complex systems, one is
interested not only in performance
evaluation but also in sensitivity
analysis and optimization.
18
 Discrete event system
simulation (DESS)
It is modeling of systems in which the state
variable changes only at a discrete set of points in
time
Simulation models are analyzed by numerical
methods rather than by analytical methods
Analytical methods apply deductive reasoning to
solve
Differential calculus can be used to calculate EOQ
In case of simulation model is run rather than
solved
An artificial history of the system is generated
(with the help of computer) based on system
characteristics and observations are collected to
be analyzed

19
Steps in Simulation
Study
Problem Formulation

Setting objectives & Plan

Model Conceptualization

Data Collection Fundamentally

an iterative
Model Translation
process
Verify model

Validate model

Experimental Design Over to next slide

20
Steps in Simulation
Study
From previous slide

Production run & Analysis

More runs?

Documentation & Reporting

Implementation

21
 Problem Formulation
Initial step
Identify controllable and uncontrollable inputs
Identify constraints on the decision variables
Define measure of system performance and an
objective function
Develop a preliminary model structure to
interrelate the inputs and the measure of
performance
May be the problem needs reformulation as
the study progresses

22
Setting Objectives & Plan
What do you (or the customer) hope to
accomplish with the model
May be an end in itself
Predict the weather
Train personnel to develop certain skills (e.g., driving)
More often a means to an end
Optimize a manufacturing process or develop the most cost
effective means to reduce traffic congestion in some part of a
city
Often requires developing a business case to
justify the cost
Improved efficiency will save the company $$$
Example: electronics
Even so, may be hard to justify in lean times
Goals may not be known when you start the
project!
One often learns things along the way 23
 Develop Conceptual
Model
An abstract (i.e., not directly executable)
representation of the system
What should be included in model? What can be left
out?
What abstractions should be used
Level of detail
Often a variation on standard abstractions
Example: transportation
Fluid flow?
Queuing network?
Cellular automation?
What metrics will be produced by the model?
Appropriate choice depends on the purpose of the
model

24
 Data Collection
Regardless of the method used to collect
the data, the decision of how much to
collect is a trade-off between cost and
accuracy
Constant inter play between construction
of the model and the collection of needed
input
Changes with the degree of complexity of
the model
Data should be collected for the validation
as well
25
 Model translation
Model requires great deal of
information and computation
Needs to be translated into computer
recognizable format using either special
purpose or general purpose languages
Focus of this course will be using Excel
for model building
Arena characteristics will be introduced

26
Verification & Validation
Verification focuses on the internal
consistency of a model
Validation is concerned with the
correspondence between the model and
the reality
Validation is applied to those processes
which seek to determine whether or not
a simulation is correct with respect to
the "real" system
Validation is concerned with the question
"Are we building the right system?
27
Verification & Validation
Verification seeks to answer the question
"Are we building the system right?"
Verification checks that the
implementation of the simulation model
(program) corresponds to the model
Validation checks that the model
corresponds to reality
Calibration checks that the data
generated by the simulation matches
real (observed) data.

28
Choose The Appropriate
Simulation Tools
Assuming Simulation is the
appropriate means, three alternatives
exist:
1. Build Model in a General Purpose
Language
2. Build Model in a General Simulation
Language
3. Use a Special Purpose Simulation
Package
29
 MODELLING W/
GENERAL PURPOSE
LANGUAGES
Advantages:
Little or no additional software cost
Universally available (portable)
No additional training (Everybody knows(language X) ! )
Disadvantages:
Every model starts from scratch
Very little reusable code
Long development cycle for each model
Difficult verification phase

30
 GEN. PURPOSE
LANGUAGES USED FOR
SIMULATION
FORTRAN
Probably more models than any other language.
PASCAL
Not as universal as FORTRAN
MODULA
Many improvements over PASCAL
ADA
Department of Defense attempt at
standardization
C, C++
Object-oriented programming language

31
MODELING W/ GENERAL
SIMULATION
LANGUAGES
Advantages:
Standardized features often needed in modeling
Shorter development cycle for each model
Much assistance in model verification
Very readable code
Disadvantages:
Higher software cost (up-front)
Additional training required
Limited portability

32
 GENERAL PURPOSE
SIMULATION
GPSS
LANGUAGES
Block-structured Language
Interpretive Execution
FORTRAN-based (Help blocks)
World-view: Transactions/Facilities
SIMSCRIPT II.5
English-like Problem Description Language
Compiled Programs
Complete language (no other underlying
language)
World-view: Processes/ Resources/ Continuous

33
 GEN. PURPOSE
SIMULATION
LANGUAGES
MODSIM III
(continued)
Modern Object-Oriented Language
Modularity Compiled Programs
Based on Modula2 (but compiles into C)
World-view: Processes
SIMULA
ALGOL-based Problem Description Language
Compiled Programs
World-view: Processes

34
 GEN. PURPOSE
SIMULATION
LANGUAGES
SLAM
(continued)
Block-structured Language
Interpretive Execution
FORTRAN-based (and extended)
World-view: Network / event / continuous
CSIM
process-oriented language
C-based (C++ based)
World-view: Processes

35
MODELING W/ SPECIAL-
PURPOSE SIMUL.
PACKAGES
Advantages
Very quick development of complex models
Short learning cycle
No programming--minimal errors in usage
Disadvantages
High cost of software
Limited scope of applicability
Limited flexibility (may not fit your specific
application)

36
 SPECIAL PURPOSE
PACKAGES USED FOR
SIMUL.
NETWORK II.5
Simulator for computer systems
OPNET
Simulator for communication networks,
including wireless networks
COMNET III
Simulator for communications networks
SIMFACTORY
Simulator for manufacturing operations

37