ASEFUAN 9th Annual Conference: Act for environment

Towards a Transition to Low Carbon

Society: Japan’s actions in the context of
pursuing global sustainability

3 August 2010
Hironori Hamanaka
Chair of the Board of Directors
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
Professor, Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio
University
 Outline
 Bali Action Plan and Copenhagen Accord

 Beyond Copenhagen: Major challenges

 Actions toward a transition to low carbon

society in Japan

 Lessons from Japan’s experience and a way

forward
 Bali Action Plan
(2007)
 Parties launched a comprehensive process to address: 　　　
　　　　
 A shared vision for … a long-term global goal for
emission reductions,
 Enhanced … action on mitigation of climate change:
 Measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) …

commitments or actions, … by all developed country

Parties, while ensuring the comparability of efforts
among them, 　　　
 Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by

developing country Parties in the context of

sustainable development, supported and enabled by
technology, financing and capacity-building in a MRV
manner. 　　　
Copenhagen
Accord (2009)
 At COP15, most Parties supported
the “Copenhagen Accord”, in that they:
 Recognized that the increase in
global temperature should be below 2℃.
 Annex I Parties commit to implement emissions
targets for 2020, to be submitted by 31 January
2010.
 Non-Annex I Parties will implement mitigation
actions, including those to be submitted by 31
January 2010, that will be subject to their
domestic measurement, reporting and
verification (MRV) …
 Copenhagen Accord
(Continued)
 Non-Annex I Parties… the result of (domestic MRV)
will be reported through their national
communications every two years, with provisions
for international consultations and analysis
under clearly defined guidelines. Mitigation actions
seeking international support will be subject to
international MRV.
 The collective commitment by developed countries
is to provide new and additional resources,
approaching USD 30 billion for the period 2010–
2012. Developed countries commit to a goal of
mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion dollars a year
by 2020 to address the needs of developing
countries.
Copenhagen Accord
and Its Implementation
 Copenhagen Accord is a step forward to
enable developing countries to take
mitigation actions, and to ensure
transparency of these actions, in addition to
enhancing mitigation commitments by
developed countries.
 The Accord is signed up by more than 130
countries and more than 80 countries have
submitted their mitigation targets/ actions.
Mitigation targets/ actions
submitted by Parties
Country Mitigation targets / actions
Japan 25% reduction from 1990 level
EU 20% reduction from 1990 level
US 17% reduction from 2005 level
China 40-45% reduction of CO2/GDP from 2005 level
Korea 30% reduction from BAU level
Indonesia 26% reduction from BAU level
India 20-25% reduction of CO2/GDP from 2005 level
Brazil 36.1-38.9% reduction from BAU level
 Beyond Copenhagen: Major
Challenges
 It is not clear as to whether targets and actions
submitted by Parties are consistent with GHG
emissions pathways that can limit the global
temperature increase below 2℃.
 Stronger mitigation actions will likely to be
required, and that will need to be based on a
new international climate regime that is
inclusive, effective and equitable.
 Building trust and confidence is essential to
achieve an agreement on a new comprehensive
climate regime.
Beyond Copenhagen:
Major challenges (2)
– In order to build trust and confidence,
developed countries need:
 To take the lead in undertaking robust
reductions in the mid-term consistent with
their ambitious long-term objectives, while
ensuring the comparability of efforts among
them.
 To deliver support in terms of finance,
technology, and capacity-building they
pledged to enable developing countries to take
appropriate mitigation actions.
 Beyond Copenhagen:
Major challenges (3)
 Developing countries need to formulate and
implement nationally appropriate mitigation
actions (NAMAs) that:
 Require mainstreaming climate actions into
national development plans,
 Result in decoupling economic growth and
GHG emissions through enhanced sectoral/
cross-sectoral actions, and
 Ensure transparency through domestic
measurement, reporting and verification (MRV),
and “international consultation and analysis”.
 Actions toward low carbon society:
Japan’s commitment
 Reduce emissions by 25% from
its 1990 level by 2020.
 Mobilize all necessary policy tools, 　　　　　　　
including the introduction of a 　　　　　　　　　　
domestic emissions trading scheme 　　　　　　　　　
and a feed-in-tariff for renewable 　　　　　　　　　　
energy, as well as the consideration of a global
warming tax.
 Provide $15 billion, new and additional financial
resources, both public and private, over 2010-12 as
well as enhanced technical assistance to developing
countries.
 (Gt) 1.286Gt Additional reduction
Additional reduction is
by 2.5%necessary
is necessary
in domestic
1.261 emissions by 2.2%
Gt

Removals by
forests by
3.8%, use of Japan’s
international new
offsets by
1.6%
target
946Gt

2020

Note: Prepared based on the information released by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan
 A Bill for the Fundamental Policy to
Address Global Warming (March 2010)
 Target
 A reduction of 25% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 below
1990 level
 Increasing the share of renewable energy to 10% by
2020
 Basic policies
 Establishing domestic emissions trading scheme
 Consideration of global warming tax to be
implemented from 2011
 Introduction of a feed-in-tariff for renewable energy
 Energy efficiency improvements in products and
buildings
 Promoting adaptation measures to climate change
Development of a Medium- to Long-term
Roadmap for Reducing GHG Emissions
 A package of policies and measures to achieve a
reduction of 25% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 below
1990 level, and a roadmap for their implementation:
 Renewable energy targets for 2020
 Solar PV: ~50GW
 Wind: ~11GW
 Hydro (large/ small scale): ~28GW

 Building sector: All new buildings meet the latest energy

efficiency standards by 2020
 Transportation sector: Next-generation models occupy
half of the new car sales
Development of a Medium- to Long-term
Roadmap for Reducing GHG Emissions
 Estimation of additional investments for 2020
and socio-economic impacts of GHG reduction
policies and measures, both positive and
negative:
 Additional investments: $1 trillion from 2011 to
2020.
 Economic impacts: Overall positive, with new
markets ($450 billion) and job (1.25 million)
created.
Japan’s actions toward
low-carbon society: Challenges
 Policy coordination and integration need to be
strengthened, particularly between climate and
energy. 　
 Consensus need be built among stakeholders on
designing key policy instruments: 　　　　　　　　　　　
　　
 Domestic emissions trading scheme: Formula for
capping emissions (absolute volume vs. intensity)
 Feed-in-tariff: How far the scheme should cover, how to
share the additional cost of renewable energy.
 Modeling studies on economic impacts, both positive
and negative, of climate mitigation actions need to be
further promoted. 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Lessons from Japanese experience:
Policies against environmental pollution
 Remedial actions after damage has been caused
by pollution: not only morally unjustifiable, but
economically irrational: “prevention is better
than cure”.
 Policies and measures for industrial pollution
control, once taken, was very effective in
reducing pollution,
 Without causing significant macro-economic
impact (Environment Agency, 1977, OECD, 1978)
 Benefit of pollution control outweighed GDP loss
(Morita, 1997).
Lessons from Japanese experience:
Policies against environmental pollution (2)
 Important factors for successful policies:
 National consensus for pollution abatement.
 Clear picture: polluters vs. pollution victims.
 Leading role played by local governments.
 Appropriate action by national government: target
setting, regulation, application of Polluter Pays
Principle (PPP), and provision of fiscal and tax
incentives to environmental investments.
 Proactive investment by business and industries
in environmental technology R&D and application.
 Environmental technologies were supplied by
domestic industries.
Lessons from Japanese experience:
Climate and energy policies
 “Top runner’s approach” in setting energy
efficiency standards:
 Encouraged manufacturers to develop and
market products that meet the standards well
in advance of the deadline.
 Green tax reform differentiating tax rates for
products with different standards:
 Considered to be instrumental in achieving
very rapid market penetration of low emission/
fuel efficient vehicles.
Energy efficiency standards for electric appliances
and automobiles: Top Runner Program
Equipment Improvement in energy efficiency (Results)

TV sets 25.7% ( FY 1997 > FY 2003 )

Video-cassette recorders 73.6% ( FY 1997 > FY 2003 )

Air conditioners * 67.8% ( FY 1997 > FY 2004)

Electric refrigerators 55.2% ( FY 1998 > FY 2004)

Electric freezers 29.6% ( FY 1998 > FY 2004)

Gasoline passenger vehicles * 22.8% (FY 1995 > FY 2005)

* Note that the effects of reducing energy consumption are indicated as inverse
numbers because COP or fuel economy (km/L) is used as an energy consumption
efficiency index.
Source: Kiyoshi Mori, “Doing Energy Efficiency - The Japan Way –“, March, 2008
 Energy efficiency Standards
- Top Runner Program for Vehicles -
Fuel economy Source: Vehicle Fuel Economy List
(Km/L) 16.0
15.5
Average fuel economy of
 The fuel standard in 2010 was 15.0
gasoline passenger 14.7
15.0 15.1

almost achieved in 2004. 14.5

vehicles 14.6

14.0
 New fuel efficiency standard 14.0
13.5
1995-2005
- Target year: 2015 (base year 2004) 13.5 13.2

- Coverage: automobiles, trucks,

13.0

12.4
12.9
23%
12.5 12.3
12.1 improvement
buses both gasoline and diesel 12.0

- Efficiency target 11.5

11.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Type Efficiency target [2004 > 2015]

Automobiles 13.6km/l > 16.8km/l
Fuel economy (Km/L) 23.5% improvement

Small-size Buses 8.3km/l > 8.9km/l 7.2% improvement

Small-size Trucks 13.6km/l > 16.8km/l 12.6% improvement

Source: Kiyoshi Mori, “Doing Energy Efficiency - The Japan Way –“, March, 2008
 A way forward
 Scientific evidence indicates serious impact of
climate change:
 We need to avoid disastrous consequence.
 Transition to low-carbon society requires a
fundamental, transformational change.
 We need to take decisive actions and to seek
to gain the advantage of early movers:
 Negative economic impact of strong climate
actions could be offset if domestic industries
effectively capture new opportunities (markets)
created by these actions.
 A way forward (continued)
 Lead actions toward building low-carbon society
 Technology R&D and deployment: energy
efficiency and renewable energy technologies,
including building social and physical infrastructures
necessary for their wide-spread deployment
 Putting a price on carbon: carbon tax and
domestic cap-and-trade scheme
 Expanding FIT
 Integrating climate policies into economic and
energy policies
 Showcase successful actions
 Thank you very much

Professor Hironori Hamanaka

Chair of the Board of Directors
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
hamanaka@iges.or.jp