SISTEM INFORMASI MANAJEMEN 2*

D3 MANAJEMEN INFORMATIKA
ATA 05/06

Sistem Pakar
Ati Harmoni
 Artificial Intelligence
Definition:

The activity of providing such machines as

computers with the ability to display behavior
that would be regarded as intelligent if it were
observed in humans.
 History
1956, Dartmouth College. John McCarthy
coined term. Same year, Logic Theorist
(first AI program. Herbert Simon played a
part)
Past 20 or so years, DOD and NSF have
funded AI research at top schools
(Stanford, Carnegie Mellon, etc.)
Desert Storm opened up new funding
(smart bombs, night vision)
Areas of Artificial Intelligence

Expert
systems AI
hardware
Robotics
Natural
language Perceptive
systems
Neural (vision,
networks hearing)
Learning

Artificial Intelligence
The Appeal of Expert Systems
A computer program that attempts to code
the knowledge of human experts in the
form of heuristics (i.e. a rule of thumb)
Two distinctions from DSS
1. has the potential to extend the managers
problem-solving ability beyond his or her
normal capabilities
2. the ability to explain how the solution was
reached
 Instructions & Solutions &
information explanations Knowledge
User

User
interface

Know-
Inference Problem
ledge
engine Domain
base

Development

An Expert
engine
Expert
system
System Model
Expert and
knowledge engineer
 Expert system model - main
parts:
User interface
Knowledge base
Inference engine
Development engine
 User Interface

User enters:
Instructions
Information } Menus,
Menus,commands,
commands,natural
naturallanguage,
language,GUI
GUI

Expert system provides:

Solutions
Explanations of
Questions
Problem solutions
 Knowledge Base

Description of problem domain

Rules: A knowledge representation
technique
such as IF:THEN logic
networks of rules
Lowest levels provide evidence
Top levels produce 1 or more conclusions
A conclusion is called a Goal variable.
 A Rule Set That
Conclusion Produces One Final
Conclusion

Conclusion
Conclusion

Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence

Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence

 Cheetah Tiger Giraffe Zebra Ostrich Penguin Albatross

R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15

And
And And And And And And And

Tawny Dark Long Black Long Cant Black& Swims Flies

color spots legs strips neck fly White Well

Ungulate Bird
Or Or

Mammal Carnivore R7 R8 R3 R4
Or Or And And Feathers And
R1 R2 R5 R6
Hair Gives milk
Eats milk Hoofs Chews Flies Lays
milk cud eggs

And
A Rule Set That LEGEND:
Can Produce More Rules
Than One Final Pointed
teeth Claws Forward
Eyes Conditions
Action
(conclusions)
Conclusion
 Rule Selection
Selecting rules to efficiently solve a
problem is difficult
Some goals can be reached with only a
few rules; rules 3 and 4 identify bird

Inference Engine
Two basic approaches to using rules

1. Forward reasoning (data driven)

2. Reverse reasoning (goal driven)
 Forward Reasoning
(forward chaining)
Rule is evaluated as:
(1) true, (2) false, (3) unknown
Rule evaluation is an iterative process
When no more rules can fire, the
reasoning process stops even if a goal
has not been reached
Rule 1 The Forward
T
IF A
THEN B Rule 7 Reasoning
Rule 2
F
IF B OR D
THEN K
Rule 10
IF K AND
Process
IF C T L THEN N
THEN D
T
Rule 3 Rule 8 Rule 12
T T
IF M IF E IF N OR O
THEN E THEN L THEN P
T
Rule 4
T
IF K Legend:
THEN F
Rule 9 First pass
Rule 5 Rule 11
T IF (F AND H) T
IF G OR J IF M
THEN H THEN O Second pass
THEN M T
Rule 6
F Third pass
IF I
THEN J
 Reverse Reasoning
(backward chaining)
Divide problem into subproblems

Try to solve one subproblem

Then try another

A Problem and Its Subproblems

Rule 10
IF K AND L
THEN N Rule 12
IF N OR O Legend:
Rule 11 THEN P Problem

IF M
THEN O
Subproblem
A Subproblem Becomes the New Problem

Rule 7
IF B OR D
THEN K Rule 10
IF K AND
LTHEN N Legend:
Rule 8
Rule 12
IF E Problem
IF N OR O
THEN L
THEN P

Subproblem
 Step 4 The First Five Problems
Rule 1
IF A THEN
Step 3 Are Identified
B Rule 7 Step 2
T
IF B OR D
THEN K Rule 10 Step 1
T
Rule 2 IF K AND L
Rule 12
IF C THEN N
IF N OR O
THEN D
THEN P
Step 5
Rule 3
IF M IF E
THEN E THEN L

Rule 11 Legend:
Problems to
IF (F AND H) IF M
M be solved
Rule 9 OR J IF
THEN O
THEN O
THEN M
 The Next Four Problems Are
Step 8 Identified Rule 12

Rule 4
If N Or O
Then P T
If K
Then F
T
Step 7 Step 6
Step 9
Rule 5
If G IF (F And H) If M
Then H Or J Then O
T Then M T T

Rule 9 Rule 11 Legend:

Rule 6 Problems to
be solved
If I
Then J
 Forward Versus Reverse
Reasoning
Reverse reasoning is faster than
forward reasoning
Reverse reasoning works best when
there are multiple goal variables
there are many rules
all or most rules do not have to be
examined in the process of reaching a
solution
 Handling Uncertainty
Two types of uncertainty
Rules
Conditions
Certainty factors (CFs) range from 0.00
to 1.00

Development Engine
Programming languages Lisp, Prolog,
and recently C++
Expert system shells
 Role of the Systems Analyst

Knowledge engineers work with the

expert in designing expert systems
Beyond traditional analyst skills, the
following skills are needed
understand how the expert applies his or
her knowledge
be able to extract the description of the
knowledge (rules as well as facts)
System Development Process
Initiate the development process
Develop the expert system prototype
User participation
Expert system maintenance
Prototyping Approach
A new player: the expert
Delayed user involvement
Need for maintenance
Prototyping Is Incorporated in the Development of an Expert System

Systems analyst Expert User

Studythe
the
step 1 Study
problem
Problem
domain
domain

step 2 Define the problem

step 3 Specify the rule set

step 4 Test the prototype system

step 5 Construct the interface

step 6 Conduct
user tests

step 7 Use the

system

step 8 Maintain the system

 Example:
Financial Expert System
Credit approval
Knowledge base for the example
consists of rules and a mathematical
model
User interface
Five decision categories; credit amount
influences weightings
 Expert System Advantages
To managers
Consider more alternatives
Apply high level of logic
Have more time to evaluate decision rules
Consistent logic
To the firm
Better performance from management
team
Retain firms knowledge resource
Expert System Disadvantages

Cant handle inconsistent knowledge

Cant apply judgment or intuition

 Neural Networks
Expert systems should be able to learn,
and improve their performance
Neural net design -- a bottom-up
approach to modeling human intuition

The Human Brain

Neuron -- the information processor
Input -- dendrites
Processing -- soma
Output -- axon
Neurons are connected by the synapse
Simple Biological Neurons

Soma
Axonal Paths
(processor)
(output)

Synapse
Axon

Dendrites
(input)
Artificial Neural Systems (ANS)
McCulloch-Pitts mathematical neuron
function (late 1930s)
Hebbs learning law (early 1940s)
Neurocomputers
Marvin Minskys Snark (early 1950s)
Rosenblatts Perceptron (mid 1950s)
 Current Methodology

Mathematical models
Complex networks
Repetitious training -- the ANS learns
by example. An ANS can learn; an
expert system cannot.
 Single Artificial Neuron
y1 w1

y2 w2

y3 w3

y
wn-1

yn-1
 OUT1 OUTn

Input
The Multi-Layer
Layer Perceptron

Y1 Yn2

OutputL
ayer

IN1 INn
 Prerequisite Activities for the
EIS
Information
needs
Information Analysis of
technology organization
standards

Corporate
data model
Information
systems plan
Production and
performance systems

EIS