Chapter 05

Detailed Modeling and
Terminating Statistical Analysis

Chapter 5
Simulation with Arena Chapter 5 Detailed Modeling and Terminating Statistical Analysis Slide 1 of 88
What Well Do ...
Explore lower-level modeling constructs
Model 5-1: A generic call-center system
Nonstationary arrival process
Balking, three-way decisions, sets, variables, expressions,
submodels, and costing
Debugging
Model 5-2: Animating the call center model
Plots, global pictures, and storages
Model 5-3: The model with overall performance
measures
Run conditions, model size and speed, overall performance
measures
What Well Do ... (contd.)
Statistical analysis of simulation output
(terminating systems)
Time frame of simulations
Strategy for data collection and analysis
Confidence intervals
Comparing two alternatives
Comparing many alternatives via the Arena Process
Analyzer (PAN)
Searching for and optimal alternative with OptQuest
Generic Call Center
(Model 5-1)
Single telephone number, 26 trunk lines
If all 26 lines busy, caller gets busy signal and goes away
Answered call gets recording asking
Technical support? (76% of callers choose this)
Sales information? (16%)
Order-status inquiry? (8%)
Time for caller to choose ~ UNIF (0.1, 0.6)
All times are in minutes in this model
Technical Support Calls
Get second recording asking
Product type 1? (25% of tech support callers choose this)
Product type 2? (34%)
Product type 3? (41%)
Recording and choosing takes UNIF(0.1, 0.5)
If a qualified tech-support person is available for
chosen product, call routed for immediate service
If not, call placed in (electronic) queue, subjected
to annoying rock music
All tech support conversations ~ TRIA (3, 6, 18)
When call done, customer exits system
Technical Support Calls (contd.)
4% of tech support calls need further assistance
after completion of their call
Questions forwarded to another tech group that prepares a
response; time to prepare this response ~ EXPO (60)
Response sent back to the same tech-support person who
took the original call
This person calls the customer back and talks, which lasts
TRIA (2, 4, 9)
These calls require one of the 26 trunk lines and take
priority over incoming calls
If return call not completed on same day, its carried over to
the next day
Sales Calls
Call automatically routed to sales staff
Sales staff is separate from tech-support staff
If a sales-staff person is available, call gets
immediate service
If not, call placed in (electronic) queue, treated to
soothing new-age space music
All sales conversations ~ TRIA (4, 15, 45)
When call done, customer exits system
Order-Status Calls
Automatically handled by phone system no people
No limit on number handled at a time (but still limited
by the 26 trunk lines)
Time for conversation ~ TRIA (2, 3, 4)
After call, 15% take option to talk to a real person (the
rest exit the system)
These calls are routed to sales staff
Have same priority as incoming sales calls
Conversation durations ~ TRIA (3, 5, 10)
Then exit the system
Call Arrivals
Calls accepted from 8 AM until 6 PM
Some staff available until 7 PM
Incoming calls shut out after 6 PM
But all calls that entered before 6 PM are answered
Call arrival rate varies substantially over the day
Data on rate (calls per hour) for each half-hour period:
Staffing
Sales staff: 7 people with staggered schedules
3 on duty for first 90 minutes (notation: 3@90)
Then 7@90, 6@90, 7@60, 6@120, 7@120, 4@90
Tech support staff: 11 people variously qualified
for the three different product lines
Work eight-hour days plus 30 minutes off for lunch
Some people only qualified on one line
Some people qualified on two or maybe all three lines
Detailed staffing description and schedule ...
Technical-Support Staff Schedules
New Modeling Issues
This is a service (not manufacturing) system
But can use same modeling capabilities
Nonstationary arrival process
Arrivals occur one at a time and are independent of one
another
Average rate varies over time (would be constant for a
stationary Poisson process)
Built into Create module (beware of popular-but-wrong
methods details in book)
Balking
Required because there are only 26 trunk lines
Entity arrives at queue, which is full (capacity is 0 here)
Entity departs from system count these
New Modeling Issues (contd.)
Three-way decisions
Entity or call can go to one of three places in model based
on call type
Similarly, tech-support calls can go to one of three places based on
product type
Capability available in Decide module
Sets
Groups of similar objects
Can be referenced by a common set name and index (1, 2,
3, ) into the set
Can also be referenced by original name, independent of set
Technical-support staff requires sets
An object can be a member of more than one set
Sets data module
Variables and Expressions
Can be referenced in model by name
Can be one- or two-dimensional arrays, indexed by one or
two integers
User-defined Variables
Store some numerical value (not a formula)
Can be initialized in Variable data module
Can be used, reassigned during the simulation run by any entity
User-defined Expressions
A name defined by a mathematical expression
This name can be references anywhere in the model
Can use constants, Variables, Attributes, system state variables,
values from distribution connected via mathematical operations
Can use Expression Builder to help define
Defined in Expression data module (Advanced Process panel)
Submodels
Partition simulation model into several smaller submodels
Can link them together, more manageable pieces
Just like a normal model view within a submodel
Submodels can also contain further submodels, etc.
hierarchical structure
Submodels can be externally connected to other modules
or submodels
Navigate panel in Project Bar shows submodels, under
Top-Level Model
Costing
Automatic time and cost information for entities
Wait, value-added, non-value-added, transfer, other
You must enter cost information Entity and Resource data
modules
Key Output Performance Measures
Count balks no. of attempted incoming calls
sent away due to all 26 trunk lines being busy
Will not model reneging customers in queue leaving the system if
they get sick of waiting
Total time in system, by customer type
Time waiting for a real person, by customer type
Contact time, by customer type
Number of calls waiting, by customer type
Personnel utilization
Animation Requirements
No entity movement to animate here
Can still display queues
To see how well staffing matches up with load,
craft appropriate plots vs. time
Number of calls balked
Lengths of queues
Number of idle staff
Strategy to improve performance alter the
staffing schedule, see if it produces a better
matchup of the plots
System or Simulation Type
Terminating
Known starting and stopping conditions part of model
Time frame is known (and finite)
Steady-State
Initial conditions are not always well defined
No defined stopping condition (theoretically infinite)
Interested in system response over the long run
Call-center model
Start at 8 AM and end at 7 PM
Some Technical support calls are held over, but not many well
ignore this aspect (sort of fixed below)
Treat the system as terminating (sort of see below)
Arena Modeling Panels
Basic Process panel
Highest level of modeling
Advanced Process panel
More detailed (and different) modeling capabilities
Advanced Transfer panel
Material-handling, entity-movement capabilities
Blocks, Elements panels
Lowest level of modeling capabilities the underlying
SIMAN simulation language itself
Other panels are created using modules from these panels
Occasionally needed, but not very often
Building the Model
Defining the Data
Submodel Creation
Divide model in sections or submodels
Increment the Time Period
Create Arrivals and Direct to Service
Technical Support Calls
Technical Support Returned Calls
Sales Calls
Order-Status calls
Well discuss each of these in turn
Simulation Replication Data
Project replication parameters
Run/Setup dialog Replication Parameters tab
10 Replications of 11 hours each
Four options for Initialization Between Replications:
Initialize system (yes), initialize statistics (yes)
10 independent and identical replications no calls carried over
Reports for each day separately
Initialize system (yes), initialize statistics (no)
10 independent and identical replications no calls carried over
Cumulative summary reports (day 1, days 1-2, days 1-3, , days 1-10)
Initialize system (no), initialize statistics (yes): Selected
10 continuous days calls carried over
Reports are by replication (day)
Initialize system (no), initialize statistics (no)
10 continuous days calls carried over
Cumulative summary reports
Schedule Data
Schedules
Enter into Schedule data module
13 schedules required
One for each of the 11 technical-support people
One for the sales staff overall
The arrival process (Type = Arrival, not Capacity)
Use Graphical schedule editor (initially)
Use Edit via Dialog (or Edit via Spreadsheet) if you need
trailing zeros in the capacity to fill out the cycling time
window
We need this in this model due to not Initializing System between
replications see book for details
Resource Data
Define resources
Use Resource data module
13 resources
Sales staff
11 technical support staff
Trunk Line (single resource with 26 units)
Enter Schedule Name for all but Trunk Line
For resources on a Schedule, use Ignore option for Schedule Rule
to ensure correct cross-day modeling details in book
Add hourly wage under costing data
Sets Data
Use Set data module (Basic Process panel)
Develop three Resource sets for technical
support staff
Product 1
Charity, Noah, Molly, Anna, Sammy
Product 2
Tierney, Sean, Emma, Anna, Sammy
Product 3
Shelley, Jenny, Christie, Molly, Anna, Sammy
Note that Anna and Sammy are in all three sets
Consistently listed the more versatile staff at the end of the
list in each set save them discussed later
Sets Data (contd.)
Develop two Tally sets
Tech Calls
Product 1 Call, Product 2 Call, Product 3 Call
Returned Time
Return 1 Call, Return 2 Call, Return 3 Call
Sets used to collect statistics by product type
Develop a Counter set
Keep track of number of balks per half-hour period
22 counters one for each half-hour period
First defined 22 counters in Statistic data module
(Advanced Process panel)
Variables and Expressions Data
Variables
Use Variable data module to define thee variables
Period (the current time period)
Busy Per Period (busy signals in current time period)
Per Period Balk (total balks for last completed time period)
Note explicit use of Variables module is required only if you want a
Variable to have a non-zero initial value
Expressions
Use Expression data module to define three expressions
Returned Tech Time, for duration of returned tech-support calls:
TRIA(2, 4, 9)
Tech Time, for duration of tech-support calls : TRIA(3, 6, 18)
Available 1, Available 2, and Available 3
Sum of currently available, but idle, resources by product type, for staffing plots
Use Expression Builder details in book, model
Submodel Creation
Object/Submodel/Add Submodel menu option to

create a submodel well use six submodels
Define (right-click, then Properties)
Name
Number of entry, exit points (could be 0 if theres no flow interaction)
Move between submodels: Navigate panel, Named Views,
or mouse
Double-click on a submodel to open it
When in a submodel, right-click in an empty place, then Close
Submodel, to go up
Time Period Counter Submodel
Increments the time period counter
No entry or exit points interacts via Variables,
not flow
Create Counter Entity Create module

Time Between Arrivals 660 minutes (constant)
Assign Period Assign module
Initialize Period variable value to zero
Time Period Counter Submodel (contd.)
Assign Variables Assign module
Increment Period variable for the next half-hour period
Assign Per Period Balk to Busy Per Period variable
value (number of calls balked during previous half hour)
Set Busy Per Period variable to zero to start balk
counting during the half hour starting now
Check Period Decide module
2-Way by Condition
Determine if there are still more periods in this day (i.e., if
Period < 22)
Yes: Delay for a half hour Delay module, then loop back
No: Dispose of entity Dispose module
Create and Direct Arrivals Submodel
Creates arrivals, checks for available trunk line, and

directs to appropriate type of service
No entry points
Three exit points
Tech Call, Sales Call, Order Status Call
Submodel Logic
Create arriving calls
If a trunk line is available seize one
Assign Arrival Time attribute (for use downstream)
Delay to listen to recording
Determine call type
Direct call and assign entity type
Else (all trunk lines are busy)
Count balked call
Increment Busy Per Period counter
Dispose of call
Develop Submodel
Create arriving calls Create module
Time Between Arrivals
Type: Schedule
Schedule Name: Arrival Schedule
Was defined when we defined the data for the model
Check for available trunk line

Queue/Seize module combination (Blocks panel)
Set queue capacity to zero
If trunk line available, resource seized in following Seize module
If no truck line available, entity will automatically balk
Develop Submodel (contd.)
Assign arrival time Assign module
Use Arena variable TNOW = current simulation clock
Delay for Recording Delay module
Used Delay module from Blocks panel
Be careful of units no choice here (uses Base Time Units)
Direct call Decide module
Use N-way by Chance option
Enter probabilities as percents (0 100)
Assign call type Assign module
Assign entity type to call type
Three modules
Develop Submodel (contd.)
Balking entities
Count balked call Record module
Record into counter set Busy Lines
Set index is the variable Period
Increment Busy Per Period variable Assign module

Dispose of balked call call Dispose module
Technical Support Calls Submodel
Logic for servicing technical support calls

One entry point
One exit point follow-up calls
Submodel Logic
Delay to listen to recording Delay module
UNIF(0.1, 0.5) minutes
Determine product type Decide module
N-way by Chance
Seize technical support person
Seize module Advanced Process panel
Request from appropriate set for product type
Preferred order within the set
Save more versatile employees for other things
Save set index (particular tech-support person) in attribute
Tech Agent Index
In case returned tech call is needed get same tech-support person
to call customer back
Submodel Logic (contd.)
Save product type and call start time Assign
module
Save type (1, 2, or 3) in attribute Product Type
Assign value from TNOW to attribute Call Start
Delay for call Delay module
Use value from expression Tech Time
Release tech-support person and trunk line
Release module Advanced Process panel
Use set index in attribute Tech Agent Index to release
the particular tech-support person assigned from set
Release the seized unit of Trunk Line resource
Record call and line time Record module
Time Interval type
Tally set Tech Calls
Set index Product Type
Records only the time spent during the tech-support
conversation (necessary?)
Record tech line time Record module
Time Interval type
Tally Tech Support Line Time (not a Tally set)
Use Arrival Time attribute set when call first arrived, so
this records the total time in the system so far
Direct to exit point
Returned Tech Calls Submodel
Logic for returned tech calls

One entry point, no exit points
Submodel Logic
Check for returned call Decide module
If no returned call is needed
Dispose of entity
If a returned call is needed
Entity Type set to Returned Call Assign module
Delay for response time Delay module
Direct by product type Note use of ==
N-way by Condition based on attribute Product Type to check for
equality.
Seize tech-support person and trunk line

Seize module: Seize specific member of appropriate Resource set
Use Set Index Tech Agent Index attribute
Seize Trunk Line
Delay for call time Delay module
Expression Returned Tech Time
Release tech person and trunk line Release module
Record returned time Record module
Use beginning-time attribute Arrival Time, defined when call first
arrived, so this records total time in system
Use Tally Set Return Time indexed by Product Type
Dispose of entity Dispose module
Sales Calls Submodel
Logic for sales calls

One entry point, no exit points
Uses a Shared Queue
Single queue
Shared by two or more seize activities
In this case, the real incoming sales calls, as well as those order-
status calls requiring more than just the automated response
Submodel Logic
Seize sales person Seize module
Shared queue declared in Queue data module
Release sales person and Trunk Line Release
module
Record call time Record module
Records elapsed time from calls original arrival until now
Dispose of entity - Dispose module
Order-Status Calls Submodel
Logic for order-status calls

One entry point, no exit point
Shared queue used when sales person required
Submodel Logic
Decide if Sales person required Decide module
If sales person is required
Seize sales person Seize module, shared queue
Follow-up delay Delay module
Release sales person Release module
Record call Record module
Elapsed time from calls arrival to system up to now
Release trunk line Release Module
Dispose of entity Dispose module
Finding and Fixing Model Errors
Arena picks up simple errors in Check phase,
and leads you to them via Find and Edit buttons
in Errors/Warnings windows
Undefined variables, attributes, resources
Unconnected modules
Duplicate module names
Typos
Other kinds of errors are more complex, cant be
detected without trying to run options on Run
Interaction toolbar or on Run menu
Only mention capabilities here; see text for
details
Finding and Fixing Model Errors (contd.)
Run Controller Command-driven window to
control, display details about model operation
and underlying SIMAN code
Trace Follow active modules, selected
variables
Highlight active module highlights the active
module during the simulation run
Layers gives control over what you see during
the simulation run
Finding and Fixing Model Errors (contd.)
Break on Module; Break stop run when entity
hits a selected module, at a specific time, or when
a selected entity is about to become active
Watch select expressions to display in a
window as model runs
Look at reports when model is running or paused
Remember to close reports windows
Model 5-2: Animating the Model
No normal entity animation just plots,
queues, a few other data animations
Plots (all vs. time on horizontal axis)
Queue lengths (as in earlier models)
Balks per period reason for variable Per Period Balk
Number of tech support people available for each product
type reason for the Available expressions defined in
Expressions module
With multiple plots, configure first one, then copy/edit for
others to get consistent look and feel; snap to grid to align
Variable animations for Period and Day
Animating the Model (contd.)
Created digital clock by hand (details in text)
Why not ready-made animated clocks? We didnt reset the
system state between replications, so internal clock just
keeps increasing
Resource and queue animations
Just for realism doesnt add any analysis value
Resource button from Animate toolbar
Take pictures from libraries (.plb files), different states
Queue button from Animate toolbar
Add various text annotations, boxes, etc.
Animating the Model (contd.)
Storages for further animation
Requires using Delay modules from Blocks panel, not
Advanced Process panel
We did this only for the delay listening to the first recorded message
Enter a Storage name in the Blocks Delay module
(Message 1)
Storage button from Animate Transfer toolbar
Animated variables
Number of available trunk lines
Number of available salespeople
Number of sales calls in progress
Model 5-3: Model for Analysis with
Overall Performance Measure
Modify the call-center model for intensive study
Different run conditions to allow valid statistical analysis
Smaller size to continue to fit in academic version and
make room for other enhancements
Faster to allow for extensive analysis
New overall performance measures to consider both
resource costs and customer-oriented performance
Base on Model 5-1 rather than Model 5-2 since
the latter adds only animation and were now
crunching numbers
Run Conditions
Want valid terminating statistical analysis
New replications must start independently with no model-
state carry-over
Run/Setup/Replication Parameters
Check Initialize System Between Replications
Still check Initialize Statistics Between Replications
Get truly independent and identically distributed replications
Unreturned tech-support follow-up calls lost unrealistic
Compromise redefine a replication to be a five-day work
week Monday-Thursday returned tech-support calls
carried over, Friday-night ones lost
Run/Setup/Replication Parameters: Replication Length = 5 Days,
specify 11 Hours Per Day
Run/Run Control Batch Run (No Animation)
Slimming Down and Speeding Up
Academic version places several different kinds
of limits on model size
Max of 150 concurrent entities though millions could
pass through this limit is not a problem here
Max of 150 module instances includes flowchart
modules, and each entry (line) in data modules this limit
is a problem
Also need room to add new output performance measures
Reduce number of module instances
Eliminate many statistical accumulators included getting
rid of lines in data modules, entire flowchart modules, and
unchecking stat-collection boxes details in book
This also increased speed by factor of 3 to 4
Important since this model will be exercised intensively
Overall Performance Measures
Form an overall cost measure reduce, minimize
What controllable input parameters affect cost? How?
Two components to cost
Due to staffing and resources tangible, measurable
Due to poor customer service intangible, hard to measure
Staffing and resource costs
Hourly salaries: $18 for sales, $16 to $20 for tech-support
depending on training (see Resource data module)
Salaries paid whenever person is on duty, whether busy or not
Get current weekly payroll of $13,110 = Staff Cost
variable
Generalize for More Staff
Try to improve service via more staff
Will certainly increase staff cost
Try to improve customer service to make it worthwhile
Base-model results worst staffing shortfalls are
between 11:30AM and 3:30PM
Add sales and tech-support staff for that four-
hour period (half-hours 8 through 15)
Additional Sales Staff
Add variable New Sales to be the number of additional
salespersons to add in periods 8-15
Define in Variable data module
Use in Schedule data module (under Sales Schedule) add to
number of sales staff in base model in periods 8-15
Must use Edit via Dialog or Spreadsheet since Graphical Schedule Editor
cannot handle Variables
Cost for each new salesperson: $15/hour
Each will work 20 hours/week, so cost $300/week
Variable New Sales Cost set to 300
Additional cost is (New Sales) * (New Sales Cost), used in
Expression for for new resource cost (New Res Cost)
Additional Tech-Support Staff
Possibly add new tech-support staff for products
1, 2, 3 (only), and for all products
Variables New Tech 1, New Tech 2, New Tech 3
Named Larrys, Moes, and Curlys, respectively
Each paid $14/hr * 20 hrs/week = $280/week (variable LMC cost)
Variable New Tech All
Named Hermanns
Each paid $17/hr * 20 hrs/week = $340/week (variable Her cost)
Resource data module define resources Larry, Moe,
Curly, Hermann and hourly costs for them (not used)
Set data module add Larry, Moe, Curly, Hermann to
appropriate resource sets
Schedule data module add Larry, Moe, Curly,
Hermann schedules cant use Graphical Schedule Editor
Changing the Number of Trunk Lines
Each trunk line costs a flat $89/week, including all
calls (even long-distance)
Is 26 the right number?
To change it, just edit the Capacity entry in the
Resource data module
Add variable Line Cost to be $89, multiply by
number of trunk lines (MR(Trunk Line)) to get
weekly cost of trunk lines
Total New Resource Cost
Define an Expression called New Res Cost:
New Sales * New Sales Cost
+ (New Tech 1 + New Tech 2 + New Tech 3) * LMC Cost
+ New Tech All * Her Cost
+ Line Cost * MR(Trunk Line)
Does not depend on what happens during

simulation used only at end in Statistic module
Does not include cost of the base-model human
staff (sales, tech-support) viewed as sunk, and
constant for all variants of staffing changes
Costs for Putting Customers on Hold
Impute a cost for making customers wait on hold
Trade off against resource costs
Use model to understand, improve, optimize this tradeoff
Such customer-dissatisfaction costs are hard to quantify
People have a tolerance for holding
Tech-support calls: 3 minutes (variable Tolerance Tech)
Sales calls: 1 min. (Tolerance Sales)
Order-status calls: 2 min. (Tolerance Order Status)
Beyond the tolerance point, system incurs cost of
Tech-support calls: $1.67/min. (variable TWT Cost)
Sales calls: $3.72/min. (SWT Cost)
Order-status calls: $1.58/min. (OSWT Cost)
Costs for Putting Customers on Hold
(contd.)
Accumulate excess waiting time (time past

tolerance) for each call type
Assign module when call is done
Use built-in Arena attribute ENTITY.WAITTIME
Accumulates total of times in queues as entity goes along, and
other Wait-allocated times but there are none upstream in this
model so this attribute will have the waiting time on hold
Requires that Costing box be checked in Run/Setup/Project
Parameters
Variable Excess Tech Wait Time accumulates via
adding in for each tech-support call
MAX( ENTITY.WAITTIME - Tolerance Tech, 0 )
At end of run, multiply Tech Wait Time by TWT Cost
Similarly for Sales, Order-Status calls
Total Cost
Adding together all the costs, get the overall
economic (cost) performance measure
Total Cost = New Res Cost
+ Excess Sales Wait Time * SWT Cost
+ Excess Status Wait Time * OSWT Cost
+ Excess Tech Wait Time * TWT Cost
+ Staff Cost
This is defined in Statistic data module

Type = Output already being computed, just report it
In Category Overview Report, get via User Specified
Other Output
Percent-Busy Requirement
Above cost performance measure ignores calls
balked away due to no trunk line busy signal
Clearly, undesirable very hard to put a cost on it
Instead, have a strong goal to limit this to no more than 5%
of incoming calls a model configuration not satisfying
this will be deemed unacceptable no matter how attractive
(low) the cost may be
Like a constraint except its on an output, not an input
call it a requirement
Compute via two Record modules in arrival
submodel to count incoming and balked calls
and Percent Busy line in Statistic module
Aside Generality of Models
We could have done a lot of things in very
different ways in this model
Using Arenas costing functions more and doing fewer of
our own external calculations
Reparameterize using only primitive parameters (e.g.,
hourly wage rates) and programming Arena to do the
calculations
How much of this you do depends on models
intended use and users
Tradeoff between generality (elegance?) vs. time
spent building the model
Results
Base case (no more people, 26 trunk lines)
Total cost (for the week) = $34K
Percent busy signals = 11% (unacceptable)
Added one resource unit for each type
New Sales, New Tech 1, New Tech 2, New Tech 3,
New Tech All, and go to 27 trunk lines
Total cost (for the week) = $28K
Added resources reduced customer waiting time by more than
enough to cover their cost
Percent busy signals = 3% (acceptable)
Extra trunk line, plus added resources to move calls through
Is the modification truly and reliably better???
Statistical Analysis of Output from
Terminating Simulations
Random input leads to random output (RIRO)
Run a simulation (once) what does it mean?
Was this run typical or not?
Variability from run to run (of the same model)?
Need statistical analysis of output data
From a single model configuration
Compare two or more different configurations
Search for an optimal configuration
Statistical analysis of output is often ignored
This is a big mistake no idea of precision of results
Not hard or time-consuming to do this it just takes a little
planning and thought, then some (cheap) computer time
Time Frame of Simulations
Terminating: Specific starting, stopping
conditions
Run length will be well-defined (and finite)
Steady-state: Long-run (technically forever)
Theoretically, initial conditions dont matter (but practically
they usually do)
Not clear how to terminate a simulation run
This is really a question of intent of the study
Has major impact on how output analysis is done
Sometimes its not clear which is appropriate
Here: Terminating (steady-state in Section 6.3)
Strategy for Data Collection and
Analysis
For terminating case, make IID replications
Run/Setup/Replication Parameters: Number of
Replications field
Check both boxes for Initialize Between Replications
Separate results for each replication Category
by Replication report
Model 5-3, base case, 10 replications
Strategy for Data Collection and
Analysis (contd.)
Category Overview report will have some
statistical-analysis results of the output across
the replications
How many replications?
Trial and error (now)
Approximate number for acceptable precision (below)
Sequential sampling (Chapter 11)
Turn off animation altogether for max speed
Run/Run Control/Batch Run (No Animation)
Confidence Intervals for
Terminating Systems
Using formulas in Chapter 2, viewing the cross-
replication summary outputs as the basic data:
Possibly most useful part 95% confidence

interval on expected values
This information (except standard deviation) is in
Category Overview report
If > 1 replication specified, Arena uses cross-replication
data as above
Other confidence levels, graphics Output Analyzer
Half Width and Number of Replications
Prefer smaller confidence intervals precision
Notation:
Confidence interval:
Half-width = Want this to be small, say

< h where h is prespecified
Cant control t or s
Must increase n how much?
Half Width and Number of Replications
(contd.)
Set half-width = h, solve for

Not really solved for n (t, s depend on n)
Approximation:
Replace t by z, corresponding normal critical value
Pretend that current s will hold for larger samples
s = sample standard
Get deviation from initial
number n0 of replications
Easier but different approximation:

n grows
quadratically
as h
h0 = half width from decreases.
initial number n0 of
replications
Interpretation of Confidence Intervals
Interval with random (data-dependent) endpoints
thats supposed to have stated probability of
containing, or covering, the expected valued
Target expected value is a fixed, but unknown, number
Expected value = average of infinite number of replications
Not an interval that contains, say, 95% of the data
Thats a prediction interval useful too, but different
Usual formulas assume normally-distributed data
Never true in simulation
Might be approximately true if output is an average, rather
than an extreme
Central limit theorem
Issues of robustness, coverage, precision details in book
Comparing Two Alternatives
Usually, want to compare alternative system
configurations, layouts, scenarios, sensitivity
analysis here just two alternatives
Base case of Model 5-3, vs. adding one resource
unit for each type
New Sales, New Tech 1, New Tech 2, New Tech 3,
New Tech All, and go to 27 trunk lines
Earlier, one run of each suggested big differences real?
Reasonable but not-quite-right idea: Make
confidence intervals on expected outputs from
each alternative, see if they overlap
Doesnt allow for a precise, efficient statistical conclusion
Compare Means via the Output Analyzer
Output Analyzer is a separate application that
operates on .dat files produced by Arena
Not installed by default from book CD need custom install
Launch separately from Windows, not from Arena
To save output values (Expressions) of entries in
Statistic data module (Type = Output) enter
filename.dat in Output File column
Just did for Total Cost, not Percent Busy
Will overwrite this file name next time either change the
name here or out in Windows before the next run
.dat files are binary can only be read by Output Analyzer
(contd.)
Start Output Analyzer, open a new data group

Basically, a list of .dat files of current interest
Can save data group for later use .dgr file extension
Add button to select (Open) .dat files for the data group
Analyze/Compare Means menu option
Add data files A and B for the two alternative
Select Lumped for Replications field
Title, confidence level, accept Pared-t Test, Scale Display
(contd.)
Results:
Confidence interval on difference misses 0, so

conclude that there is a (statistically) significant
difference
Evaluating Many Alternatives with the
Process Analyzer (PAN)
With (many) more than two alternatives to
compare, two problems are
Simple mechanics of making the possibly many parameter
changes, making the runs, keeping track of the many
output files
Statistical methods for drawing reliable and useful
conclusions
Process Analyzer (PAN) addresses these
PAN operates on program (.p) files produced
when .doe file is run (or just checked)
Start PAN from Arena (Tools/Process Analyzer) or
via Windows
PAN runs on its own, separate from Arena
PAN Scenarios
A scenario in PAN is a combination of:
A program (.p) file
Set of input controls that you choose
Chosen from Variables and Resource capacities think ahead
You fill in specific numerical values
Set of output responses that you choose
Chosen from automatic Arena outputs or your own Variables
Values initially empty to be filled in after run(s)
To create a new scenario in PAN, double-click where
indicated, get Scenario Properties dialog
Specify Name, Tool Tip Text, .p file, controls, responses
Values of controls initially as in the model, but you can change them
in PAN this is the real utility of PAN
Can duplicate (right-click, Duplicate) scenarios, then edit for a new
one
Think of a scenario as a row
PAN Projects and Runs
A project in PAN is a collection of scenarios
Program files can be the same .p file, or .p files from
different model .doe files
Controls, responses can be the same or differ across
scenarios in a project usually will be mostly the same
Think of a project as a collection of scenario rows a table
Can save as a PAN (.pan extension) file
Select scenarios in project to run (maybe all)
PAN runs selected models with specified controls
PAN fills in output-response values in table
Equivalent to setting up, running them all by hand but
much easier, faster, less error-prone
Running Model 5-3 with PAN
Scenarios
Base case (no additional resources)
Imagine $1200/week to spend on each additional resource
type, one at a time (no mixed enhancements)
7 scenarios in all (details in book)
Select all to run (click on left of row, Ctrl-Click or Shift-Click
for more)
To execute, or Run/Go or F5
Statistical Comparisons with PAN
Model 5-3 alternatives were made with 10
replications each
Better than one replication, but what about statistical
validity of comparisons, selection of the best?
Select Total Cost column, Insert/Chart (or or
right-click on column, then Insert Chart)
Chart Type: Box and Whisker
Next, Total Cost; Next defaults
Next, Identify Best Scenarios
Smaller is Better, Error Tolerance = 0 (not the default)
Show Best Scenarios; Finish
Statistical Comparisons with PAN (contd.)
Vertical boxes: 95%
confidence
intervals
Red scenarios
statistically
significantly better
than blues
More precisely, red
scenarios are 95%
sure to contain the
best one
Narrow down red set
more replications,
or Error Tolerance > 0
More details in book
Searching for an Optimal Alternative
with OptQuest
The scenarios just considered with PAN are just 7
of many, many possibilities
Try to find input-control values that minimize
Total Cost while keeping Percent Busy < 5%
Formulate as an optimization problem:
Minimize Total Cost Objective function is the simulation model
Subject to 26 Trunk Lines 50 Contractual obligation, space limitation
Nobodys fired New Sales, New Tech 1, New Tech 2, New Tech 3, New Tech All 0
Space limitation New Sales + New Tech 1 + New Tech 2 + New Tech 3 + New Tech All 15
Percent Busy < 5% An output requirement, not an input constraint
Reasonable starting place best acceptable scenario so

far: Add 3 New Tech All
Where to go from here? Explore all of feasible six-
dimensional space exhaustively? No.
OptQuest
OptQuest searches intelligently for an optimum
Like PAN, OptQuest
Runs as a separate application can be launched from Arena
Takes over the running of your model
Asks that you identify the input controls and the output (just one)
response objective
Unlike PAN, OptQuest
Asks that you specify constraints on the input controls
Asks that you specify requirements on outputs
Decides itself what input-control-value combinations to try
Uses internal heuristic algorithms to decide how to change the input
controls to move toward an optimum configuration
You specify stopping criterion for the search
Using OptQuest
Tools/OptQuest for Arena
New session (File/New or Ctrl+N or )
Make sure the desired model window is active
Select controls Variables, Resource levels
Trunk Line, New Tech 1, 2, 3, and New Tech All
Bounds: 26 Trunk Line 50, others between 0 and 15
Type is Discrete for all, Input Step Size 1
Constraints enter
New Sales + New Tech 1 + New Tech 2 + New Tech 3 + New Tech All <= 15
Objective and Requirement
Total Cost Response Select Minimize Objective
Percent Busy Response Select Requirement, enter 5 for
Upper Bound
Reorder
Using OptQuest (contd.)
Options window computational limits,
procedures
Time tab accept Run for 10 minutes default
Precision tab vary number of replications from 3 to 10
Preferences tab various settings (accept defaults)
Can revisit Controls, Constraints, Objective and
Requirements, or Options windows via
Run via wizard (first time through a new project),
or Run/Start or
Open View/Status and Solutions and
View/Performance Graph to watch progress
Cant absolutely guarantee a true optimum
Usually finds far better configuration than possible by hand

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Detailed Modeling and

Terminating Statistical Analysis

Object/Submodel/Add Submodel menu option to

Create Counter Entity Create module

Creates arrivals, checks for available trunk line, and

Check for available trunk line

Increment Busy Per Period variable Assign module

Logic for servicing technical support calls

Logic for returned tech calls

Seize tech-support person and trunk line

Logic for sales calls

Logic for order-status calls

Does not depend on what happens during

Accumulate excess waiting time (time past

This is defined in Statistic data module

Possibly most useful part 95% confidence

Half-width = Want this to be small, say

Set half-width = h, solve for

Easier but different approximation:

Start Output Analyzer, open a new data group

Confidence interval on difference misses 0, so

Reasonable starting place best acceptable scenario so

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