Debre Tabor University

College of Health sciences

Social and Public Health Unit

Statistical inference:
Estimation
Hypothesis Testing

By: Marelign Tilahun

(Assistant Professor, MPH/Epidemiology & Biostatistics)
 Statistical inference
The term statistical inference deals with the collection of data on a
relatively small number of cases so as to form conclusions about the
general population from which the sample was taken.

The sample from a population is used to provide the estimates of the

population parameters (point and interval estimation).

A significance test enables us to measure the strength of the evidence

which the data supply concerning some proposition of interest.

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 Definitions:

Parameter: Numerical value of Statistic: Numerical value

some characteristics in a of some characteristics in a
population sample
 Statistical Estimation

Estimation: is the process of determining a likely value for a

variable in the population based on information collected from the
sample.

I. Point estimation

A single numerical value is used to estimate the corresponding

population parameter

is an estimator of the population mean

S is an estimator of the population standard deviation

P is an estimator of the population proportion

 II. Interval estimation
Interval estimation: is a statement that a population parameter has a value
lying between two specified limits.

The value of the sample statistic will vary from sample to sample therefore to
simply obtain an estimate of the single value of the parameter is not generally
acceptable.

We need to take into account the sample to sample variation of the statistic.

A confidence interval defines an interval within which the true population

parameter is like to fall (interval estimate).
 Point and Interval Estimates

A point estimate is a single number,

A confidence interval contains a certain
percentage of possible values of the parameter

Lower Upper
Confidence Confidence
Point Estimate Limit
Limit
Width of
confidence interval
 1. C.I. for a population mean
(normally distributed)

a) Known variance (large sample size)

A 100(1)% C.I. for is

is to be chosen by the researcher, most common values of are

0.05, 0.01, 0.001 and 0.1.
 E.g. A random sample of 100 cancer patients treated with a new drug
has a mean survival time of 46.9 months.

If the SD of the population is 43.3 months, find a 95% confidence

interval for the population mean.

Solution: 46.9 (1.96) x(43.3 /100) = 46.9 8.5 = (38.4 to 55.4

months)

Hence, there is 95% certainty that the limits (38.4, 55.4) contain the
mean survival times in the population from which the sample arose.
 2. C.I. for a population proportion (large sample size)

A 100(1)% C.I. for is

Example:

A study on dental health practice. Of 300 adults interviewed, 123

said that they regularly had a dental checkup twice a year. What
is the 95% C.I. for ?

P = 123/300 = 0.41 a point estimator of .

= 0.05 Z0.025 = 1.96

 Hypothesis Testing

Definition:

A statistical hypothesis is an assumption or a statement which may

or may not be true concerning one or more populations.

Hypothesis testing enables us to measure the strength of the

evidence which the data supply concerning some proposition of
interest.

The purpose of the study is to collect data which will allow the
researcher to test the hypothesis.
 Steps in hypothesis testing:
In general, hypothesis testing in statistics involves the following
steps:

Choose the hypothesis that is to be questioned (Ho).

Choose an alternative hypothesis (HA) which is accepted if the

original hypothesis is rejected.

Choose a rule for making a decision about when to reject the original
hypothesis and when to fail to reject it.

Choose a random sample from the appropriate population and

compute appropriate statistics: that is, mean, variance and so on.

Make the decision.

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 The null and alternative hypotheses
The main hypothesis which we wish to test is called the null hypothesis.

It is denoted by the symbol Ho .

The null hypothesis postulates that there is no difference between factor

and outcome or there is no an intervention effect.

HO is always a statement about a population parameter ( mean,

proportion, etc.).

It is not about a sample, nor are sample statistics used in formulating the
null hypothesis.

HO is an equality ( = 14) rather than an inequality ( 14 or < 14).

 The null and alternative hypotheses

Alternative hypothesis (represented by HA) states that there is a

difference between factor and outcome or there is an intervention
effect.

The notation HA is used for the hypothesis that will be accepted if

HO is rejected.

HA must also be formulated before a sample is tested

So, like the null hypothesis (HO), it does not depend on sample
values.
 The null and alternative hypotheses
Possible choices of HA
If HO is then HA is
= A (single mean) A or < A or > A

P = B (single proportion) P B or P < B or P > B

Where, A and B are constants.

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 Types of errors
There are 2 types of errors

Type of decision H0 true H0 false

Reject H0 Type I error (a) Correct decision (1-)

Accept H0 Correct decision (1-a) Type II error ()

Type I error is more serious error and it is called the level of

significance.

Power is the probability of rejecting false null hypothesis and it is

given by 1-
 Types of errors
Notation:

is the probability of a type I error.

It is called the level of significance.

is the probability of a type II error.

In practice, the level of significance ( ) is chosen arbitrarily and the

limits for accepting HO are determined.

If a sample statistic is outside those limits, HO is rejected and HA is

accepted.
P Values:

Is the probability of getting the observed data in the sample

purely by chance if the null hypothesis were true.

This probability is usually called the P value.

If the P-value is greater than 0.05 then, by convention, we

conclude that the observed data could have occurred by chance
and there is no statistically significant evidence (at the 5% level
of significance) to discount the null hypothesis
1. Hypothesis testing on a single population mean

H 0 : 0 ( 0 )
H A : 1 0 ( 0 )
x 0
zcal

n
ztabulated z for two tailed test
2
if | zcal | ztab reject H o
Decision :
if | zcal | ztab do not reject H o
 hypothesis testing..

If the test statistic does not fall in the

If the test statistic falls in the critical
critical region:
region:
Conclude that there is not enough
Reject H0 in favor of HA.
evidence to reject H0.

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The most frequently used values of and the corresponding
critical values of Z are:

(level of two-tailed one -tailed, < one-tailed, >

significance)

.10 1.64 - 1.28 1.28

.05 1.96 - 1.64 1.64

.01 2.58 - 2.33 2.33

 Types of tests

One-Tailed Test Two-Tailed Test

H0 : = 0 H0 : = 0
Ha : < 0 Ha : 0

H0 : = 0

Ha : > 0

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 Example
The Food and Nutrition Board of the National Academy of
Science states that the recommended daily allowance (RDA) of
iron in adult females under the age of 51 is 18 mg.

Iron intakes for 45 randomly selected adult females under the

age of 51 were obtained. At the 1% significance level, do the
data suggest that adult females under age 51, on average, get less
than 18 mg of iron daily? Assume = 4.2 mg and = 14.68
mg.
 Hypothesis testing for single proportions
Example: In the study of childhood abuse in psychiatry patients, brown found
that 166 in a sample of 947 patients reported histories of physical or sexual
abuse. test the hypothesis that the true population proportion is 30%?
Solution: To the hypothesis we need to follow the steps
Step 1: State the hypothesis

Ho: P= Po =0.3 VS Ha: P Po 0.3

Step 2: Fix the level of significant (=0.05)

Step 3: Compute the calculated and tabulated value of the test statistic

p Po 0.175 0.3 0.125
zcal 10.08
p(1 p) 0.175(0.825) 0.0124
n 947
ztab 1.96
Step 4: Comparison of the calculated and tabulated values of the
test statistic

Since the tabulated value is smaller than the calculated value of

the test then we reject the null hypothesis.

Step 6: Conclusion

Hence we concluded that the proportion of childhood abuse in

psychiatry patients is different from 0.3
 The Chi square test

A chi square (2 ) distribution is a probability distribution.

The chi-square is useful in making statistical inferences about

categorical data in which the categories are two and above .

Definition: A statistic which measures the discrepancy between K

observed frequencies O1, O2, . Ok and the corresponding expected
frequencies e1, e2 . ek.
 Test Statistic: 2-test with d.f = (r -1)x(c -1)

Chi square = 2 = { (Oi - ei)2 } / ei

Expected frequency of a cell = (row total*column total)
Grand total
Characteristics:

1. Every 2 distribution extends indefinitely to the right from 0.

2. Every 2 distribution has only one (right ) tail.

3. As df increases, the 2 curves get more bell shaped and approach

the normal curve in appearance
 If the value of 2 is zero, then there is a perfect agreement
between the observed and the expected frequencies.

The greater the discrepancy between the observed and expected

frequencies, the larger will be the value of 2.

In order to test the significance of the 2, the calculated value of

2 is compared with the tabulated value for the given df at a
certain level of significance.
Acceptance and rejection region of chi-square test
Example1:

The following table shows the relation between the number of

accidents in 1 year and the age of the driver in a random sample of
500 drivers between 18 and 50.

Number of accidents Age of driver

18 - 25 2 6 - 40 > 40 total
0 75(90) 115(120) 110(90) 300
1 50(45) 65(60) 35(45) 150
2 25(15) 20(2 0) 5(15) 50
Total 150 200 150 500
A) Test, at a 0.01 level of significance, the hypothesis that the number
of accidents is independent of the driver's age.

Solution:

Hypothesis:

HO : There is no relation between age of driver and number of

accidents

HA : The variables are dependent (related)

The degrees of freedom (df) in a contingency table with R rows and

C columns is: df = ( R 1) ( C 1)

Hence, 2 tab with df = 4, at .01 level of significance = 13.3

 2 calc = (75 90) /90 + (115 120 ) /120 + (110 90) /90
+ + (5 15 ) /15

= 1 + 0.208 + 4.444 + 0.556 + 0.417 + 2.222 + 6.667 + 0 + 6.667

2 = 22. 2 (This corresponds to a P-value of less than .001)

Therefore, there is a relationship between number of accidents

and age of the driver.
 Sample Size Estimation in cross - sectional studies

Deciding how many people needed to be studied in order to

answer the study objectives.

The eventual sample size is usually a compromise between what

is desirable and what is feasible.

If the study is too small we may fail to detect important effects or

may estimate effects too imprecisely.

If the study is too large then we will waste resources.

The feasible sample size is determined by the availability of

resources.
 1. Single population proportion
Let p denotes proportion of success, then
Example 1

a) p = 0.26 , w = 0.03 , Z = 1.96 ( i.e., for a 95% C.I.)

n = (1.96)2 (.26 .74) / (.03)2 = 821.25 822

Thus, the study should include at least 822 subjects.