Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
János Abonyi
University of Pannonia
Department of Process Engineering
SAMI, The 8th International Symposium on Applied Machine Intelligence and Informatics,
Herlany, Slovakia, January, 28-30, 2010
Computational
Intelligence
in Data Mining
CI in
modeling
and
control
Summary
3/15
• Total GDP grows with approximately 2%.
• Chemical market growth below average GDP growth.
• Most investments go to
Middle or Far East, in particular China.
• High dependence on external influences (feedstock prices).
• Increasing competition.
Source: Bram Jansen and Olaf Abel, BASF Antwerpen N.V., STI – Automation Services,
4/15
2004
Realted R&D problem
• Main Tasks
– Development of Process
Engineering tools and approches
– Industral application opportunities
(CAPE tools)
– Education (university and plant)
5/15
Business Plan vs. Actual
Schedule Adherence
Yield Accounting;
Production
Well Allocations; Scheduling
Batch Tracking
Operating Envelope
Operations
Operations Monitoring Operating Instructions
Operator Efficiency
Procedures
Procedure Analysis Procedure Execution
Process Control
Controls
weeks ago days ago hours ago now hours ahead days ahead ronths ahead
Prior
Knowledge,
goals
Data
Analysis,
Modeling
+ Simulation
Database
Technology 7/15
A good methodology should be based on the requitements of the
EN ISO 9001:2008 – Quality Management Systems
European Standard
8/15
ISO 9001:2008
8. Measurement, analysis and improvement
• 8.1 General
• The organization shall plan and implement the
monitoring, measurement, analysis and
improvement processes needed
– a, to demnostrate conformity of product requirements
– b, to ensure confromity of quality management system, and
– c, to continually improve the efectiveness
of the quality management system.
• This shall include determination of application methods,
including statistical techniques,
and extent of their use
9/15
PDCA cycle
– „performance monitoring” system
Plan: establish objectives and
P
processes necessary to deliver LA
N
T
ANALYSIS
result in accordance with IMPROVEMENT
C
A
STANDARDISATION SETTING GOALS
customers reqirements and POSSIBLE REASONS
FEEDBACK AND
organization’s policies DEVELOPMENT BENCHMARK, BEST PRACTICE
DETERMINATION OF
RESPONSIBILTY
Do: implement the processes
CONTROL AND VALIDATION IMPLEMENTATION
Check: monitor and measure EVALUATION OF DATA EXECUTION OF PROCESSES
O
report the result K
D
Act: take actions to contiunally
improve process performance
Improving quality
10/15
„Anyone can reach a given setpoint or value by controlling the paramete
in a technology, but to keep it continously near those setpoints wh
production goes in a reproducible way, that is a challenge.”
A. Kiss, senior plant engineer, TVK Plc.
Plant (process)
Graphical User Interface
PV PV
Operator
OP DCS SP SP
PV SP SP Calc. PV
PROCESS LEVEL
Process Computer
ANALYSIS LEVEL
PVszám.
SP,PV. Advanced Process
Control System SP
Graphicalsimulator
Statistical Tools model
PROCESS
interface
DATA SP
Data Mining Tools WAREHOUSE
PV Reactor System PVszám.
model
12/15
ProductionR
ate
1
ProdRate (t/h)
• Time horizons, delays
• First principle and semi- O
T
rig.Data
echn.M dl.output
mechanistic models
APC .Mdl.output
0.5
04-March 06-March
Res.Time(h)
0
2nd loopreactor
Res.Time(h)
1
04-M
arch 06-M
arch
MFI
13/15
The model integrates the organization
14/15
ISO 9001:2008
8.4. Analysis of data
15/15
Key performance indicators
might be the basis of technology development
16/15
TVK LDPE-2 Performance Monitoring /1. phase/
Parameters of production
(comparing trends of certain products,
production periods)
NORM - Costs
PHD Specific raw material demand
/C2, O2, PA, Comonomer, Additive/
PERFORMANCE
MONITORING EFFECTS OF FACTORS ON
SYSTEM PRODUCTION
EXAMINATION OF CONTINOUS
PRODUCTION
Polymer /Analysis of states of he plant/
quality control
(MySQL Database) ENERGY
specific demands, efficiency
(electronic devices, gross energy demand)
Application of
result for
Handling the data
business
purposes
DATA
Creating data
mining models
Evaluation of
result fot
business goals
18/15
Business Data Data
Modeling Evaluation Deployment
Understanding understanding preparation
7.1 Planning of
Select modeling
technique Modeling Model product realization
techniques assumption
. 7.3.2 Design and
development inputs
Assess model
7.6 Monitoring and
Revision of
Model parameter
measuring
assessment setting equipments
19/15
Application examples ...
– Quantile-quantile plots:
0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
– Regression
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0 0 0 0 0
0.9736
5
75 5
75 5
75
0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10
0.9708
5
70 5
70 5
70
5
60 5
60 5
60
0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10
kg/m3
0.9618
5
55 5
55 5
55
0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10
5
50 5
50 5
50 0.9437
5
40 5
40 5
40 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10
2
006
-0
3-2
413
:3
5:0
0.0 2
006
-0
5-0
210
:5
0:0
0.0 2
006
-0
5-1
200
:0
0:0
0.0
2
006
-0
3-2
710
:0
7:0
0.0 2
006
-0
5-0
302
:0
5:0
0.0 2
006
-0
5-1
206
:0
0:0
0.0
0.9259
• Tools: Temp.(R201)
5.13
Temp.(R202) SlurryDens.(R201)
5.04
SlurryDens.(R202)
1.27 1.21
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) 0.129 0.0809 -0.619 -0.701
and/or
-4.88 -4.88 -2.5 -2.61
Self-organizing Maps (SOM). n n n n
22/15
Product Quality Estimation
• Problem U-matrix
4.72
Melt index
4.01
H2 conc(R201)
4.58
• Solution 0.0137
n
-0.955
n
-0.742
BB1
[C2]
u1 x̂1
u2 x̂2 y1 TR MIcur
y2 [C6pol ]
ui FP1 x̂ j
h yk
BB1 FP2
FP2
dMI ξ 1 ξ − L MI ξ − MI ξ dP
= ∑ ki [i ]L[cat ]P ⋅MI cur
dt P i out cur cur dt
23/15
ProductionR
ate
1
ProdRate (t/h)
• Time horizons, delays
• First principle and semi- O
T
rig.Data
echn.M dl.output
mechanistic models
APC .Mdl.output
0.5
04-March 06-March
Res.Time(h)
0
2nd loopreactor
Res.Time(h)
1
04-M
arch 06-M
arch
MFI
24/15
The model integrates the organization
Further goals – in item 7.3.2 of ISO 9001:2008
Input for design shall include information from previous
(similar designs)
25/15
26/15
The missing link – Experiment
design
Condition of experiments Measurement Model structure,
Param.
Measuring Creating an invers
Experiment
Experiment equipments problem, solution
design
Initial states.,
Operating
Input param. Numerical Calculated outputs, states regimes
Initial conditions simulation And measurements
Matthematical
models
Iterativ model tuning
(Marquardt) 27/15
Conclusions
28/15
Summary