Hypotheses

&
Research Design
 Review & Overview

You can now:

concepts measurement
operationalize & recode variables
Describe variables: central tendency and spread

Now we learn to:

Formulate hypotheses
Choose a proper research design
Understand threats to validity
A theory is a fairly general explanation
of some political phenomenon.
Theories must be testable
A hypothesis is less general than a theory.
Theories and hypotheses describe causal
relationships between two or more
variables.
 Dependent and Independent Variables

Dependent variable what youre trying to explain

Independent variable what we think causes the dependent
variable.

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Hypothesis
 Characteristics of Hypotheses

1. Hypotheses should be as SPECIFIC as

possible and provide a clear tendency between
the variables

Example: A persons vote is related to their

annual income
Better: American voters with higher income are
more likely to vote Republican than are voters
with lower income.
Causal Relationships and Associations

For example:
Across countries per capita ice cream
consumption is associated with per capital
television ownership. Is this a causal
relationship or an association?
Statistics can tell you if there is an
association between two variables but not
if that is causal.
 Spurious Relationship

Hypothesis expects a negative relationship,

but we observe a positive one.
+
Number of Fire Trucks Amount of Fire Damage
 Spurious Relationship

Initial Reporting of
Severity of Fire

+ +

_
Number of Fire Trucks Amount of Fire Damage
Problems in Determining Causality
Reciprocal
Relationships
Example:

Amount of
Likelihood of Campaign Funds
Winning Election Given to Candidate
Choosing Among Competing Theories
Or
Eliminating Alternative Explanations
We can never prove a theory or a
hypothesis, we can only disprove.
Research Design
 Experimental Designs
Ideal Design:
Examines a causal relationship stated in
our hypothesis.
Allows us to determine if the expected
association is present.
Eliminates alternative explanations.
 Research Design I
R Grp 1 X O1
Grp 2 O1

R= random assignment to groups

X= treatment
O= observation
Oi= subscript on O refers to time of observation

Grp 1= treatment group

Grp 2= control group
 Research Design II
R Grp 1 O1 X O2
Grp 2 O1 O2
 Research Design III
Solomon 4 Group Design

R Grp 1 O1 X O2
Grp 2 O1 O2
Grp 3 X O2
Grp 4 O2
Why are these designs superior to:

O1 X O2

or to:

X O1
 Threats to Internal Validity (C&S)

History:
Other contemporaneous event(s) cause change in Y, not treatment.
Ex: Rise in DVD and game purchases.

Maturation
Natural aging/process causes change in Y.
Ex: Getting smarter or more experienced over time.

Testing:
Change in Y due to testing or pretest reactivity
Pretest may bias subsequent responses

Instrumentation:
Something happens to the observers or measurement device that
causes a change in Y
Ex: fatigue, change in observers (different people)
 Threats to Internal Validity
(Campbell & Stanley)

Experimental Mortality
Effect is due to a differential loss in comparison groups.

Statistical Regression
Regression to the mean. Groups selected based on extreme scores will
tend to display lower scores next time.

Sample Selection
Difference in comparison groups is not due to treatment, but to the fact
that the groups were different from the start.
 Threats to Validity

Internal Validity Are our claims concerning the effects

of the treatments valid in this
particular experiment?

Can our results from this experiment

External Validity
be generalized to other populations
and settings?
 Threats to External Validity

In general, anything that makes the effects found for the

experimental groups unrepresentative of effects on a larger
population or in a different setting.

Generalize to a different setting: For example, are

results in a lab realistic enough to apply outside the lab?
Selection: For example are the survey groups
representative of the larger population, or was the
original population defined too narrowly to be of real
interest?
Why do properly constructed research
designs eliminate other explanations?

Alternative Cause

Treatment Result
 Quasi-Experimental Designs
Typically in political science we cant do proper
experimental designs. Usually we cant
manipulate who gets the treatment and who
does not.
Instead we must observe what nature presents
to us. That makes it the responsibility of the
research to statistically control for all variables
that may affect the relationship between our
dependent and our independent variable.