China:

Threat or Opportunity or
Both
China, with Provinces
 What We Know Already
1949: Communist victory; Nationalist
defeat
PRC vs. ROC

1972: Nixon to China

1979: US-China normalization

 What is Taiwan?
China: A Province of China

US: A part of a united China, united in

some undefined way and how that
works is up to Taiwan and China as
long as it is done peacefully

Taiwan: Taiwan is a part of China

 Changes since 1970s
Taiwan democracy
Lee Teng-hui Chen shui-bian Ma Ying-jeou
1988-2000 2000-2008 2008--2016
Pres. Tsia Ing-wen 2016
 Chinese Economic Reform
Deng Xiaoping
 The Statistics

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/chinese_economic_history/html/1998.stm
Shanghai, China
 The Dilemma
Economic reform: yes
Political reform: No

But

Economic Calls for

Reform Political reform
Tiananmen Square 1989
June 4, 1989
 Bush 41 View

US

USSR PRC
 US Congress View
Jackson-Vanik Amendment to Trade Act
of 1974
President determines that a nonmarket economy nation
denies or imposes more than a nominal tax on those
who emigrate or desire to emigrate, then the products
from any nonmarket economy country shall not be
eligible to receive nondiscriminatory treatment (normal
trade relations)and the President of the United States
shall not conclude any commercial agreement with any
such country.
Most Favored Nation status
 Clinton View
What is China?
1. Worst human rights violator on
the planet
2. Biggest of the BEM

1993: China given a deadline of June

1994 for human rights
improvement
 Threat
Opportunity
Both
Chinas Wealth
Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation,
The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422
South China Sea
Timeline
Chinas Nine-Dash Line
Competing Claims
Oil and Gas
Oil Trade
Natural Gas Trade
Trade Routes
Spratly Islands Disputes
 Mischief Reef
Chinese Naval Base
1990s 2010s
Philippine Claim to the Second
Thomas Shoal
 Paracel Island Disputes
and Chinese Oil Rig 2014
Air Defense Identification Zones
 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS) 1982
12 mile limit from a nations coast: legal jurisdiction for the nation
200 miles form a nations coast Exclusive economic rights for the
nation
Dispute resolution mechanism
Direct talks between the parties.
If they fail:
submission of the dispute to the International Tribunal for the
Law of the Sea
adjudication by the International Court of Justice
submission to binding international arbitration procedures
submission to special arbitration tribunals with expertise in
specific types of disputes. All of these procedures involve
binding third-party settlement
Exceptions for cases involving national sovereignty. Parties submit
their dispute to a conciliation commission; results are non-binding.
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
Dokdo/Takeshima Islands
Source: The Economist: www.economist.com/node/17601487
 From: Annual Report to Congress
Military Power of the Peoples Republic of China 2009
(http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf. pp 24-5
 The Future
1. China as a regional rival
2. China as a peer competitor
A rival with a functioning economy
3. China as an ideological rival
Liberal-democracy vs. Soft
Authoritarianism
4. Integrating China into the world and
taming it
Responsible stakeholder
5. China anti-hegemony: peaceful rise
ButEconomic Interdependence
Chinese Trade (2010) US Trade (2010)
From Chinese Ministry of Commerce 2009-2010, From US Census Bureau data; chart from
http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/statistic/ie/200901/2 http://www.globalization101.org/a-snapshot-of-us-
0090105999698.html trade/
 Mutual Assured Bankruptcy?
Who owns the Debt 2011? Federal Reserve information

1. US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities

2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds
3. China
4. Japan
5. Pension Funds
6. Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds
7. State and Local Governments in US
8. UK
9. Banks
10.Insurance Companies
11.OPEC nations
12.Brazil
13.Caribbean nations
14.Hong Kong
15.Canada