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Summary
2
Backdrop for Tariff Setting
3
Capacity Addition Required and past performance
Huge capacity Addition Required to realize the vision of power for all by 2012: 100,000 MW
Estimated investment in all sectors: Rs. 900,000 Crs
45000 100%
40000 90%
35000 80%
% Achievement
Target
MW
25000 60%
20000 50%
15000 40%
7th Plan 8th Plan 9th Plan
(Intra-State Transmission,
Discom 1 Licence
TRANSCO (Licensee 1) Area 1
CPSU
IPPs
Discom 2 Licence
PGCIL (Licensee 2) Area 2
Pvt.
Licensees
Excess
Captive Pvt. Discom n Licence
Utilities (Licensee n) Area n
? Regulators Role
Distribution Distribution
Licensee 1 Licensee 2
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Goals of Tariff Setting
8
Contd
Goals of Tariff Setting (contd.)
9
Contd
Goals of Tariff Setting (contd.)
10
Part I
Tariff Setting: Broader Issue
11
Tariff Setting: Broader Issues
Technological
Operating
Micro Management
Detailed scrutiny of technology
Ultimately desired
Generation Transmission Distribution
Unregula
Regulate
ted, due Regulated
d on
to on Price
Cost Plus
competiti Cap
Basis
on Managing Input
Power Cost is left
to Discoms
Need for interim Structure to cut down the time and promote efficiencies
13
Tariff Setting: Interim Structure (Generation)
Existing Interim
Regulated on Regulated on
Cost Plus Normative
basis Basis
15
1. Rate of Return: Approach
Views
Tariff setting needs to move from a cost-plus approach to a
normative performance based approach.
Cost-Plus approach requires detailed analysis of the different loans,
their repayment schedules and other terms & conditions.
Recommendation
ROCE Approach to be Adopted
16
2. Rate of Return: ROCE- Cost of Debt
Views
The interest rate may be taken as lending rates for A rated borrower
(minimum investment grade rating below which Banks/FIs generally do
not lend).
This may work out to a spread of 3% to 3.5% over the base PLR, which
for simplicity, may be taken as SBIs Long Term PLR for Infrastructure
Projects.
A provision also need to be made for factoring in other costs of raising debt-
finance viz. upfront fees, etc.
Generally, lenders stipulate a call option in the loans which entitles them
to review the rates of interest at regular period of time after
disbursement of the loan (say every 5 years). No corresponding put
option to the borrower.
If interest rates in the economy go up, lenders may require
enhancement of the interest rate applicable to the loan also.
It would pose significant interest rate risk for the borrower which no borrower
is in a position to take.
Accordingly, there should be a provision for a mid-term review of tariff
should the interest rates in the economy rise by say more than 3%.
Recommendation
SBI PLR + 3.5% (on pre-tax basis), with provision for Mid-Term
Review to be Adopted
17
3. Rate of Return: ROCE- Cost of Equity
Views
Pressing need to attract investments in the sector and generate internal
resources for huge capacity additions
Returns, adjusted for Risk profile, to be attractive vis--vis competitive
sectors for investments of the desired amount to flow in.
The returns available to the investors should therefore be the
opportunity cost of funds to the investor and not linked to interest rates
in the economy.
Against competing investment avenues, a cost of equity lesser than 16%
would be definitely unattractive.
In developed economies where there is no acute investment program,
returns are linked to interest rates.
Taking 16% as the base minimum ROE required, CAPM model may be
used to see if a higher equity return is justifiable.
The higher of ROE derived through the CAPM model and 16% should be
used as the cost of equity.
Recommendation
ROE of 16% (post-tax) to be continued at least for Xth
and XIth Plan Period
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4. ROCE- Debt: Equity Ratio
Views
The generally followed a debt-equity norm of 70:30 in the past needs to
be relooked in view of changing structure.
From long-term assured off-take arrangements and elaborate payment security
structures to liberalized & competitive market place
Less possibility of payment security structures and even if it is, experience of
IPPs under operation shows how ineffective they are in actual practice.
This would have the effect of slightly raising the risk profile of the
investments. Additionally, the amount of investments required in the
sector in the next 8-9 years also has to be seen.
Considering the above, lenders may not be willing to lend at the same
70:30 debt-equity ratio and may insist on a better debt-equity ratio.
Moreover, credit profile of the borrower would also determine the debt-
equity ratio being offered to him. For a majority of SEBs with poor
financial health and a track-record of defaults on debt obligations,
lenders may definitely like to insist on better equity cushion.
Having determined these norms and approved tariff based on these norms,
Commission should not look into what is the actual debt-equity ratio or the cost
of borrowings for the company and the same should be left to the investors.
Recommendation
For Calculation of ROCE, Debt:Equity Ratio of 50:50 to be adopted
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5. ROCE to be fixed or dynamic and fixed every year?
Views
The investment decision is taken based on principles of ROCE
allowed at the approval stage
Recommendation
Views
In order to attract investment in the sector etc. 16% ROE to be
on Post Tax Basis.
However, to avoid regular/yearly scrutiny, ROE can be
specified on pre tax basis by suitably grossing it by effective
tax rate over the project life
Effective Tax rate to be computed by considering Section 80 IA
benefit and MAT rate and initial depreciation shield.
At current tax laws, the effective tax rate for a coal based power
plant with a life of 25 years is 21.13% and that for a gas based
station is 16.41%.
The ROCE would thus need to be enhanced by the above
effective tax rates to make it on a pre-tax basis.
To be adjusted for change in law/rate rates
Recommendation
ROE to be Post Tax or to make it pre-tax, suitably grossed
up to effective tax rate
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7. Whether Additional Capitalization to be allowed?
Views
Capital costs for stations various type of power plants should
be based on laid down norms i.e, a fixed amount for various
type of projects and considering the size of plant, economies of
scale, etc. Thus for a gas based project, a normative cost of Rs.
3 crores/MW may be approved whereas for a coal based
station, Rs. 4 crores per MW may be stipulated as the norm for
capital cost.
Once these norms are set, all cost components in tariff should
be calculated w.r.t. these norms and there should be no linkage
with the actual capital cost of the plant.
All cost over-runs/savings w.r.t. this normative cost should be
to the account of the developer
Recommendation
Views
The calculation of rate base should ensure that the tariff allows
a return component which covers both ROE as well as interest
cost of debt.
There are various options for calculating the rate base from the
asset side & liability side.
The most prudent option would be one which allows flexibility
to the developer, adequately covers his returns & interest cost
of debt and at the same time does not lead to a sharp increase
in retail tariffs.
As suggested earlier, Normative Approach should be adopted in
this case also.
The rate base, should take into account its reduction due to
repayment of loan etc.
Recommendation
1. Initial Rate Base Should be Normative Capital Cost
2. This may be decreased by 5% p.a., up to 50% of
original, in view of debt-equity ratio of 50:50
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9. Basis of Capital Cost: Normative or Actual
Views
similar projects
Recommendations
24
10. Treatment of Initial Spares in Project Cost
Views
purposes)
Recommendations
Views
Recommendation
Views
accepted
period
borrower)
Recommendations
Views
O&M cost should be on a normative basis as a given percentage
of the normative project cost.
Recommendation
Views
Depreciation does not serve the purpose of loan repayment
only. It also serves to generate additional resources which can
be used for future creation of capacity.
Recommendation
Views
economic/replacement cost).
Recommendation
Views
The fixation of operational norms (station heat rate, secondary
fuel consumption and auxiliary consumption) should take into
account the relative performance of a wide cross-section of
utilities in the country from both central & state sector as well
as the private sector so that the norms are achievable by all
utilities which put in reasonably efficient efforts.
The norms so fixed should also act as reasonable benchmarks
for utilities to improve whose performance is below the norms.
The existing practice of comparing norms against actuals and
allowing the lower of the two discourages efficiency
improvement measures.
During stabilization period, norms should be relaxed.
Recommendation
Norms to be based on performance of wide-section of
utilities and tariff to be based on normative parameters only
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17. Norms for Target Availability
Views
The norms should take into account the relative performance of a wide
cross-section of utilities.
The norms for target availability should thus be fixed at the national
average plus say 2%-3%.
Recommendation
Views
PLF depends on despatch of the plant, which is dictated by
customer beneficiaries and not the developer
Recommendation
33
19. Development Surcharge
Views
Development Surcharge was allowed in tariff to central sector utilities as
a means of gathering surplus funds for future capacity additions.
If the Govt. so desires, the funds required for setting up new capacity
should be given by way of planned budgetary allocations rather than
collect the same by way of a surcharge.
The surplus funds for future capacity addition can be generated through
a higher rate of depreciation etc. which would then be uniformly
available to all utilities and not to central sector utilities only.
Recommendation
35
Transition Phase Need for Support (contd.)
With reforms
Period
Transition Period
Views
Tariff policy framework should be stable enough for a reasonable period
of time
keeping in view the development period of projects
Recommendation
Views
The need for pooled generation tariffs is not clear.
Generation tariffs should be on station-wise basis and not
pooled basis.
Pooled tariff concept is generally applicable for distribution
utilities when they procure bulk power and not for generation
companies.
The pooled tariff concept for generating companies can work
specifically in a short-term/spot sales scenario.
In case of long-term contracts, it would become very difficult
to implement a provision whereby tariff gets upwardly revised
every time a new incremental capacity is set up.
Recommendation
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23. Declared Capacity & Auxiliary Consumption
Sector
Recommendation
40
Goals for Tariff Setting: Other Issues
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Need for Intra State ABT
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Need for Intra State ABT
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Advantages of Intra State ABT
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Summary
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Summary: Tariff Setting Goals
power sector
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Thank you
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