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Suppose you are thinking of purchasing the stock of Moore Oil, Inc. and you
expect it to pay a $2 dividend in one year and you believe that you can sell the
stock for $14 at that time. If you require a return of 20% on investments of
this risk, what is the maximum you would be willing to pay?
Remember, the cash flows to the stockholder is simply the dividends received
+ the future sales price
D1 P1
Vc
(1 k c ) (1 k c )
SINGLE HOLDING PERIOD
? 5.50 + 120
0 1
Ans: $ 109.13
WHAT HAPPENS IF ?
D1 Po (1 g ) D1
Po
(1 k c ) (1 k c ) (k c g )
EXAMPLE
D1 2
Po Rs 20.00
(k c g) (0.15 0.05)
EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN
What rate of return can the investor expect, given the current
market price and forecasted values of dividend and share price ?
Kc = (D1 / Po)+ g
MULTI-PERIOD VALUATION
MODEL
The value of a stock today (its current price) is in theory equal to
the present value of all future dividends plus that of the selling
price.
D1 D2 D3 D4 Dn Pn
P0 ...........
1 k c (1 k c ) (1 k c ) (1 k c )
2 3 4
(1 k c ) n
(1 k c ) n
n
Dt Pn
t 1 (1 k c ) (1 k c ) n
t
MULTI-PERIOD VALUATION MODEL
D1 D2 D3 D4 D
P0 ...........
1 k c (1 k c ) 2 (1 k c )3 (1 k c ) 4 (1 k c )
Dt
t 1 (1 k c ) t
MULTI-PERIOD VALUATION
MODEL
That was the generalized multi-period valuation
formula – which is general enough to permit any
dividend pattern – constant, rising, declining or
randomly fluctuating.
D 0.5
P0 $ 20.00
k c 0.025
CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL
Assumes that the dividend per share grows at a
constant rate (g)
D1 D1 (1 g) D1 (1 g) 2 D1 (1 g)3 D1 (1 g) n
P0 ........... n 1
.......
1 k c (1 k c ) 2
(1 k c ) 3
(1 k c ) 4
(1 k c )
D 0 (1 g) D1
P0
kc - g kc - g
EXAMPLE 1
Suppose Big K, Inc. just paid a dividend of $5. It is
expected to increase its dividend by 2% per year.
If the market requires a return of 15% on assets of
this risk, how much should the stock be selling
for?
Ans: $ 13.33
EXAMPLE 3
Griggs Inc. last dividend (D0) was $2. The dividend growth rate
(g) is a constant 5%. If the required return (kc) = 10%, what is P0?
2(1.05)
P0 $42
(.10 .05)
EXAMPLE 4
Dividends
Retention Ratio
Retained earnings
D1 D1 (1 g1 ) D1 (1 g1 ) 2 D1 (1 g1 ) n 1 Pn
P0 ......
1 k c (1 k c ) 2
(1 k c ) 3
(1 k c ) n
(1 k c ) n
If ,
D0(1 g) cash flow at the end of 1st year
D0(1 g) 2 cash flow at the end of 2nd year
D0(1 g) n cash flow at the end of nth year
(1 r) n (1 g ) n
PV of growing annuity D0(1 g) n
(r g )(1 r)
This is true for g r and g r but not for g r
TWO STAGE GROWTH MODEL
(CONTD….)
The first term on the right hand side of above equation is the
PV of a growing annuity, and its value is equal to:
1 g n
1 1
1 kc
D1
k c g1
TWO STAGE GROWTH MODEL
(CONTD….)
Hence,
1 g n
1 1
1 kc Pn
P0 D1
(1 k ) n
k c g1
c
TWO STAGE GROWTH MODEL
(CONTD….)
Since the two-stage growth model assumes that the growth rate
after n years remains constant at g2, Pn will be equal to:
D n 1
Pn
kc g2
1 g n
1 1
1 k c D1 (1 g1 ) (1 g 2 )
n 1
1
P0 D1
n
k c g1
k c g1 (1 k c )
EXAMPLE:
Ans: Rs 79.597
EXAMPLE: GENERAL TWO-STAGE
DDM
EXAMPLE: GENERAL TWO-STAGE
DDM
Step 1: Calculate the first three dividends:
• D1 = $2.00 x (1.15) = $2.30
• D2 = $2.30 x (1.15) = $2.6450
• D3 = $2.6450 x (1.15) = $3.0418
Step 2: Calculate the Year 4 dividend:
• D4 = $3.0418 x (1.04) = $3.1634
Step 3: Calculate the value of the constant growth
dividends:
• V3 = $3.1634 / (0.10 – 0.04) = $52.7237
EXAMPLE: GENERAL TWO-STAGE
DDM
$2.30 $2.6450 $3.0418 $52.7237
V0
1.10 1.102 1.103 1.103
V0 $46.17
H MODEL
D0 1 g L D0 H g S g L
V0
r gL
1.07 / (1.12) +
1.14 / (1.12)2 +
(15.63 + 1.20) / (1.12)3
= 13.85
NON-CONSTANT GROWTH
Rearranging:
kc = r = D1/P0 + g
D t Pt Pt 1
r
Pt 1 Pt 1
ILLUSTRATION:
We observe a stock selling for $ 20 per share. The next dividend will be
$ 1 per share. You think that the dividend will grow by 10 % per year
more or less indefinitely. What return does this stock offer you if this is
correct ?
Return = DividendYield + Capital GainsYield
r = D1/P0 + g
= 1 / 20 + 0.10
= 0.05 + 0.10
= 0.15
i.e. 15 %
VERIFICATION
We can verify this answer by calculating the price in one year P1 , using 15 % as the
required return.
P1 = D1 (1+g) / (r – g)
= $ 1 x 1.10 / (0.15 -0.10)
= $ 22
Strengths Limitations
Simple and applicable to stable, Not applicable to non-dividend-
mature firms paying firms
P0
P0 E1
E1
where, P0 Estimated Price
E1 Estimated EPS
P0
Justified P/E Ratio
E1
DETERMINANTS OF P/E RATIO
According to Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model
D1 E1 (1 b)
P0
r - g r ROE b
P0 (1 b)
E1 r ROE b
E1
V0 PVGO
r
E1
PVGO P0
r
PRESENT VALUE OF GROWTH
OPPORTUNITIES
E1
V0 PVGO
r
P0 1 PVGO
E1 r E1
EXAMPLE: PRESENT VALUE OF
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
75
TO VALUING THE ENTIRE BUSINESS:
THE FCFF MODEL
76
SAME INGREDIENTS, DIFFERENT
APPROACHES…
Input Dividend Discount FCFE (Potential FCFF (firm)
Model dividend) discount valuation model
model
Cash flow Dividend Potential dividends FCFF = Cash flows
= FCFE = Cash before debt
flows after taxes, payments but after
reinvestment reinvestment
needs and debt needs and taxes.
cash flows
Expected growth In equity income In equity income In operating
and dividends and FCFE income and FCFF
Discount rate Cost of equity Cost of equity Cost of capital
Steady state When dividends When FCFE grow When FCFF grow
grow at constant at constant rate at constant rate
rate forever forever forever
77 77
STOCK VALUATION MODELS:
FREE CASH FLOW MODEL (CONT.)
Table Dew, Inc.’s Data for the Free Cash Flow Valuation Model
Step 2. Add the PV (in 2011) of the FCF for 2012 found in
Step 1 to the FCF for 2011 to get total FCF for 2011.
Step 3. Find the sum of the present values of the FCFs for
2007 through 2011 to determine, VC, and the market values
of debt, VD, and preferred stock, VP, given in Table 7.5 on the
following slide.