Asymmetric Conflict: Group # 3 Kunhui Cai, Madan Chauhan, Jim Jacaruso, Manoj Pant, Vinay Srivastava, Yoji Tsubaki

ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT
GROUP # 3
Kunhui Cai,
Madan Chauhan,
Jim Jacaruso,
Manoj Pant,
Vinay Srivastava,
Yoji Tsubaki
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict

Theory of Asymmetric Conflict
 Asymmetric Conflict is a term that describes a military situation in

which two belligerents of unequal power or capacity of action ,
interact and take advantage of the strength and weaknesses of
themselves and enemies. The interaction often involves strategies
and tactics outside the bounds of conventional warfare. ( Wikipedia)
 Synonymous with Terrorism/ Not synonymous with Terrorism?
 Two Schools:
1) Descriptive in nature and Asian in its approach: It assumes that
asymmetric and indirect are synonyms. Indirect warfare as
described by Sun Tzu, Mao Tse-tung, B.H. Liddell-Hart…. Mao
advises that one should come from the East and yet attack from the
West..
2) Reductive . ..Political scientist believe that asymmetric conflict
involves two actors – ‘strong’ and ‘weak’. Demographic, military and
scientific strengths.
…Theory and Concept
Other definitions
– a) Defined by transformational use of familiar and
unfamiliar ‘capability clusters’ or by pitting of different
organizational structures against each other.
– b) Involves states of unequal aggregate power capabilities,
measured in terms of material resources i.e. size,
demography, military capability and economic prowess,
strategy and tactics. (T.V. Paul)
– c) Asymmetric warfare is “leveraging inferior tactical or
operational strength against the vulnerabilities of a
superior opponent to achieve disproportionate effect with
the aim of undermining the opponent’s will in order to
achieve the asymmetric actor’s strategic objectives.
(Kenneth McKenzie).
…Theory and Concepts
 “If you use pressure, we will deploy pressure and force. We

know that you can harm us although we do not threaten you. But
we too can harm you. Everyone can cause harm according to
their ability and their size. We cannot come all the way to you in
the United States, but individual Arabs may reach you.”
-Saddam Hussein, 1990
 Put simply, asymmetric threats or techniques are a version of not

"fighting fair.”
 Asymmetric strategy may not only sidestep opponents or hit

them where they ain’t but also go over them ( Desert Storm), or
under them( terrorist attacks or cyber attacks).
SOME THOUGHTS ?
Trends in correlations of war data show that strong actors

have been losing more asymmetric conflicts.
A)1800-1849: 34 asymmetric conflicts .

– 88.2% won by strong actors.
 Greek war of Indep,
 US second seminole war,1835-42,
 First Zulu War 1838-42,
 First British Afghan War 1838-42.
B)1850-1899:69 asymmetric conflicts,
– 79.5 % won by strong actors.
 The Second Opium War1856-60,
 Second Schleswig-Holstein war,1864,
 The Russo-Turkoman War 1878-81,
 The Second Boer War1899-1902.
Trends…
C)1900-1949: 31 asymmetric conflicts,

– 65.1% won by strong actors.
 Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905,
 The First Balkan War1912-1913,
 The Iraqi-British Conflict1920-1921,
 The US –Nicaraguan Conflict1927-1933.
D)1950-1998:36 asymmetric conflict

– 45% won by strong actors,.
 South vietnam,1961-65,
 The Anglo Portugal War 1961-75,
 The Mozambique Conflict1964-75,
 The Russo- Chechen War 1994-96.
REASONS FOR SUCH A TREND
 The Nature of the Actor (Structural) : Democratic v/s

Authoritarian type of regime.
 Arms Diffusion (Technological): Diffusion of relatively advanced
small arms in Developing World raised the costs of conquest for
strong actors.
 The Growth of militant Nationalism ( Cultural): ideological
asymmetries, national liberationists were more committed and
willing to lay their lives.
 The role of relative Resolve/ interests (Psychological): Relative
vulnerability vis-à-vis relative power and interests. For strong
actors survival is not at risk so have lower interest.
 Strategic interactions ( Strategic/ conceptual): Wrong politico-

military strategy against weak actor may result in losing. The
Key variable is Time. Delay favors weak!
What guides Weaker Power to go to Conflict with Stronger

power( T V Paul)
1. Politico –Military Strategy in asymmetric war initiation

 blitzkrieg (lightning strike)
 attrition/maneuver
 limited aims/fait accompli.
2. Offensive weapons , limited capability and asymmetric war

initiation
3. Alliance Support and war calculation
4. Domestic Structure and asymmetric war initiation
5. Time Pressure
SOME EXAMPLES
 Use of terrorism by much lesser Mongol

forces in the creation and control of the
Mongol Empire.
 Non violent struggle by Mahatma Gandhi
 Israel and Palestine warfare.
 India-Pakistan: Kargil warfare.
 U.S. – Cuba Conflict.
 China- Taiwan Conflict.
 North Korea- South Korea .
 U.S.- Iran Conflict.
WHY US – IRAN CONFLICT IS ASYMMETRIC
1. UNEQUAL POWER BASE
2. LEVERAGING TACTICS
3. TERRORISM
4. RELIGIOUS
5. DESIRE TO RISE
US - Iranian History
 1883 - U.S and Persia appoint diplomatic envoys
 1941 - Allied Powers force Shah to abdicate throne to
his more pro-allies son. Allied Forces use Iran as
staging base for re-supply of Russian forces in WWII.
 1951 - Iranian Prime Minister Mossadegh tries to
nationalize oil industry and limit the power of Shah
 1953 - American and British intelligence services
sponsor a coup that overthrows Mossadegh.
 1963/64 - Shah’s White Revolution. Ayatollah
Khomeini exiled for denunciation of Shah’s status of
forces bill for US Military Personnel.
 1965/72 - America provides significant military support
to Iran. Shah leverages Iran’s strategic position in US
containment policy.
 1978 - Iranian Islamic Revolution Council is formed
 1979 - Shah is forced into exile - later enters US for
cancer treatment - students seize US embassy and
diplomats beginning a 444 day hostage crises.
 1980 - President Carter severs diplomatic ties with Iran
- expels Iranian diplomats from US
 1980 - Iraq invades Iran leading to a 10 year war
during which the US openly supports Iraq.
 1982 - American supported Lebanese Christian forces
kidnap Iranian diplomats - begins a nine year period of
kidnapping of western hostages.
 1983 - Bombing of US embassy and US Marine
Barracks in Beirut - US places blame/suspicion for
both events on Iranian supported Hezbollah
 1984 - Bombing of Embassy annex in Beirut - US says
Hezbollah known to have been involved
 1985/86 - Iran-Contra scandal
 1988 – USS Vincennes shoots down Iranian Airliner over
the gulf killing 290. Iran views this as evidence the US
was going to get involved in the Iran - Iraq war.
 Two weeks later Khomeini accepts UN brokered cease-
fire with Iraq
 1990 - Iran remains neutral in US led war against Iraq
denouncing both the US and Iraq
 1993 - President Clinton takes office - institutes a policy
to isolate Iran
 1995 - Clinton signs an executive order banning all trade
with Iran.
 1996 - Khobar Tower bombing in Saudi Arabia - 19 US
service personnel killed - Hezbollah blamed.
 Iran - Lybia Sanctions act passed.
 1999 - US eases sanctions against state supporters of
terrorism
 2000 - US officially acknowledges US role in 1953 coup
but does not apologize.
 2001 - US releases 46 count indictment against
unidentified Iranians in the Khobar Towers case.
 Iran condemns US air strikes in Afghanistan yet agrees
to perform search and rescue missions for US pilots
downed in Iran.
 Iranian President denounces Osama Bin Laden and
rejects US assertions that Iran supports terrorism.
US & IRAN
Current Relationship
– 2001, President Bush unfreezes the Nuclear program
– 2002 - President Bush refers to Iran as part of an Axis of evil
and states they are pursuing WMD and Terrorist Activities
– Defense Secretary Rumsfeld links Iran to suicide attacks in
Israel
– 2003, IAEA reports that Iran is Enriching Uranium
– Since then:
– US asserts that Iran is supporting terrorists
– Iran asserts that US is violating Iranian sovereignity
– 2007, US arrests Iranian diplomats in Iraq
– UNSC imposes sanctions on Iran
– Iran arrests 15 British Sailors for venturing into Iranian Waters
Is War Imminent?
Tracing the Conflict
 US MEDIA PORTRAYAL OF IRAN

 Iran is the country that grabbed U.S. embassy officials as
hostages and then embarked on a series of terror strikes
against U.S. targets.
 Iranians will stop at nothing to preserve their homeland – the
taking of hostages, terrorism, and nuclear weapons are just
instruments for them to scare America out of their backyard.
 IRANIANS VIEW OF AMERICA
 America remains an enemy that has repeatedly expressed its
desire to overthrow the Iranian government.
 Most Iranians believe the Khat e-Imam took the American
embassy to destroy its network of spies and put an end to
American plans to launch a military coup in Iran
 US INTENTIONS
ISSUES
 OIL
 Nuclear Aspirations
 Regional Balance of Power
 Support of Terrorism
 UN Sanctions
Issues involved
Issue 1: Petro$
BY 2010, US NEEDS 50 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF
OIL
While many regions of the world offer great oil
opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the
world's oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize
ultimately lies.
PETRODOLLARS AND OIL TRADE
The world buys and sells oil in dollars, meaning that all
the countries of the world subsidise the US economy as
the US has a monopoly on printing dollars.
Issues involved
 The oil-producing countries have to trade in dollars and

any country wanting to buy oil must first acquire dollars
which can only be obtained by trading with the US, that
is, buying US products and services.
 This means that trillions of dollars are traded daily
on the major currency exchanges, based in Washington,
DC and in London.
 The surplus generated through these exchanges and
sales of US financial instruments subsidizes an otherwise
bankrupt US economy.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN OIL TRADE

 Over the past four years the value of the euro has
appreciated by 13% against the dollar making it a
preferred currency to sell oil with, hence Iraq’s switch to
the euro in 2002
 Upcoming establishment of an Iranian oil bourse
based on euros which presents a direct threat to the
power of the US dollar
 Venezuela to trade its oil in euros and in spite of the
US’s military supremacy, the US economy is in serous
trouble if Iran and Venezuela go ahead with the switch
 Countries such as Russia are mixing oil sales using a
‘basket’ of currencies
Nuclear Issues
 The IAEA reported in 2003, that Iran had hidden a
Uranium enrichment program for 18 years.
 Western Members of IAEA called on Iran to commit
itself to stopping all enrichment activities permanently,
but it has refused to do so and has abandoned the
temporary halt as well.
 The clash with Iran escalated in Feb 2006, when the
IAEA as a whole reported Iran to Security Council and
in March Security Council decided to take up the issue
after receiving the copy of the report on Iran.
 UN had issued dead line to suspend Uranium
enrichment program which ended on 21st Feb 2007,
but Iran ignored the UN deadline.
 UNSC slaps sanctions on Iran in March 2007
MILITARY DOCTRINE SO FAR

 Iran's military doctrine and capacity is defense of
its own territorial integrity only
 Iran has never attacked any of its neighbors in
the region in the past 300 years, even when it was
badly provoked in 1998 by the Taliban in
Afghanistan
IRANIAN MILITARY STRENGTH
 Iran has two kinds of armed forces: the regular forces

and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC),
totaling about 545,000 personnel
 Iran also has a paramilitary, volunteer militia force
called the Basij, which includes about 90,000 full-time,
active-duty uniformed members, up to 300,000
reservists, and a further 11 million men and women
who could be mobilized.
 Iran's military capabilities are kept largely secret.
Since 1992, it has produced its own tanks, armored
personnel carriers, guided missiles, submarines, and a
fighter plane
WEAPON DEVELOPMENT
 In recent years, official announcements have
highlighted weapons such as Fajr-3 (MIRV)
missile, Hoot, Kowsar, Fateh-110, Shahab-3, and
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
 The Fajr-3 (MIRV) is currently Iran's most
advanced ballistic missile. It is a domestically-
developed and produced liquid fuel missile with
an unknown range
MISSILE PROGRAM
 The IRIS solid-fuelled missile is a program which
is supposed to be Iran's first missile to bring
satellites into orbit
Stakeholders
 UN
 US
 Iran
 Russia
 Israel
 Saudi Arabia and other US allied Arab nations
 Turkey
 Iraq
 UK
 EU
 IAEA
Group Exercise
 Break up into groups
 Clarify their Frames, their positions, interests.
 What could be some of the possible ways of resolving or de-

escalating the conflict
Structural Interest Cognitive Emotional
Core Distribution Underlying Beliefs Fear
Concerns of power & interests, Schemas Loss and

resources goals and Frames grief
‘Built-in’ objectives Rage
structural Pathology
inequalities
Goals Justice Integration or Reframing Healing

compromise
Conflict Revolution Negotiation / Facilitated Truth-telling
Management Re- mediation contact Public
Techniques distribution compromise Acknowledge-

bargaining ment
De-
win-win Forgiveness
construction
From PPA 601 class lecture Spring 2007, Framing- Prof Catherine Gerard
POSITIONS AND INTERESTS
US IRAN US IRAN
Position Position Interests Interests
a) Iran is Axis a) US is 1)Resources- 1)Major player in the region
of Evil Imperialist oil 2) Bargain and
b) Iran is evil power out 2) Power in
going Leveraging
to subjugate Mid East
Nuclear - Mid East 3) Increase d status in world
WMD 3) Will not Equation
b) Nuclear for like Iran to
peaceful 4)Sovereignity
rise.
purposes- 5) Respect in the Arab/Muslim
4) Control
energy world
6) Stability in Iraq- Region
Strategies for Resolution
 Diplomacy
 Dialogue—interest based negotiations
 Multi-track Diplomacy
 Economic Pressure
 Public Diplomacy
 Military Action
 Truth and Reconciliation Commissions
 Reframing

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ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT

PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict

Theory of Asymmetric Conflict

 Asymmetric Conflict is a term that describes a military situation in

…Theory and Concept

…Theory and Concepts

 “If you use pressure, we will deploy pressure and force. We

 Put simply, asymmetric threats or techniques are a version of not

 Asymmetric strategy may not only sidestep opponents or hit

Trends in correlations of war data show that strong actors

A)1800-1849: 34 asymmetric conflicts .

C)1900-1949: 31 asymmetric conflicts,

D)1950-1998:36 asymmetric conflict

REASONS FOR SUCH A TREND

 The Nature of the Actor (Structural) : Democratic v/s

 Strategic interactions ( Strategic/ conceptual): Wrong politico-

What guides Weaker Power to go to Conflict with Stronger

1. Politico –Military Strategy in asymmetric war initiation

2. Offensive weapons , limited capability and asymmetric war

3. Alliance Support and war calculation

4. Domestic Structure and asymmetric war initiation

 Use of terrorism by much lesser Mongol

WHY US – IRAN CONFLICT IS ASYMMETRIC

1. UNEQUAL POWER BASE

Tracing the Conflict

 US MEDIA PORTRAYAL OF IRAN

 The oil-producing countries have to trade in dollars and

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN OIL TRADE

MILITARY DOCTRINE SO FAR

IRANIAN MILITARY STRENGTH

 Iran has two kinds of armed forces: the regular forces

 Break up into groups

 Clarify their Frames, their positions, interests.

 What could be some of the possible ways of resolving or de-

Structural Interest Cognitive Emotional

Core Distribution Underlying Beliefs Fear

Concerns of power & interests, Schemas Loss and

Goals Justice Integration or Reframing Healing

Conflict Revolution Negotiation / Facilitated Truth-telling

Management Re- mediation contact Public

Techniques distribution compromise Acknowledge-

POSITIONS AND INTERESTS

Strategies for Resolution

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